patrick.net

AD says

Monthly housing cost for our type of Panama City Beach townhome has increased about 8% since 2016 and that is what American Kulak has been explaining why Florida is that unaffordable :-(

My monthly building expense is up from $320 in 2018 to $460 in 2024, 90% of that was insurance costs, 10% everything else (trash, maintenance, etc) My property tax went from ~$800/year to $1150 in about the same time period.

I believe we got hit by one tropical storm AFTER it crossed the state from the West and was weak (the eye passed almost exactly over the Shuttle Airstrip) and damage was minimal.

Whatever is driving high costs in Florida, it isn't wage increases. It's FIRE fuckery. Take a look at FL State Salaries and compare to your State for a shock.

WookieMan says

I think this is how FL can do without state income tax.

Tourism helps a lot with 7% sales tax on hotel rooms and vacation rentals, as well as 5% "bed tax" also. Panama City Beach has about 18,000 hotel rooms, motel rooms, and Beach condo rentals. Figure 50% occupancy with very conservative average $225 per evening and that is

18,000 units x 0.5 x 365 days x $225 per day x 0.07 = $51,738,750 in sales tax going to the state

about 1/7 of that $51.73 million stays within Bay County and 6/7 of it goes to the state government in Tallahassee

a lot of the "bed tax" money stays within Bay County like they pay local contractors to build a sports park, pay contractors to maintain the sports park facilities, etc.

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Zillow downgrades their forecast for the housing market yet again. I think this is the 3-4th time since late last year

This time across every major metro area in the USA.

AmericanKulak says

Zillow downgrades their forecast for the housing market yet again. I think this is the 3-4th time since late last year

This time across every major metro area in the USA.

Maybe the air will slowly be let out of the housing balloon for the next 3 to 5 years while income increases about 2.5% a year and the 30 yr mortgage rate remains no more than 7%.

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AmericanKulak says

This time across every major metro area in the USA.

My usual hint. Don't live in a major metro areas. Millennials and Boomers have moved at this point. So demand is low because of prices for Gen Z in urban and suburban areas. I've always pegged Gen X as the stubborn grunge generation that wants to defy what is obvious. That was my former boss that did change even when presented with data. So they plant their roots and stay.

Boomers will cut and run from metros. Millennials have kids and run. Most I know have have a 30 min max commute or work from home. There's no point in being in a major metro. With kids I honestly think it's a form of child abuse to live in a city and even many suburbs.

I wish these companies would do better stats and press on rural areas. That doesn't get them clicks though. I wish I still had my MLS access. I could prove my point in probably 10 min. with stats. I don't trust the public stuff or what's reported. Also people don't know this but you can opt out of IDX, data shared to public websites. Basically hidden listings. We had sellers that didn't want neighbors to know the house was on the market.

Basically there's a shadow market you cats won't even know about, only brokers with the access. You'd only find out if/when it closes or if you have a buyers agent. This is mostly for privacy issues. A lot of people don't want neighbors coming through their house for various reasons.

AD says

3 to 5 years while income increases about 2.5% a year

https://www.zillow.com/research/march-2025-market-report-35082/

Home values flatten as sellers outnumber buyers (March 2025 Market Report)

https://www.redfin.com/news/homes-sell-slowest-pace-since-2019/

U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/homes-sell-slowest-pace-since-2019/

U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years

zzyzzx says

https://www.zillow.com/research/march-2025-market-report-35082/

Home values flatten as sellers outnumber buyers (March 2025 Market Report)

One motivation factor for selling is the proliferation of subprime mortgages as owners are unable to remain financial solvent with paying at least mortgage and property tax, while the HOA assessment balance, if applicable, continues to increase.

I remember even in my townhome HOA back in 2007 to 2011 of homeowners just walking away and their townhomes becoming "Real Estate Owned (REO)" and/or sold in a fire sale.

Are the same conditions now as they were 2007 to 2011 such as unemployment ? Granted the Feds balance sheet is a lot bigger now (relative to GDP) than it was back then.

zzyzzx says

"Home values flatten as sellers outnumber buyers (March 2025 Market Report)

The Housing Bubble of the last 30 years needs to collapse. And it will collapse.

The_Deplorable says

zzyzzx says

"Home values flatten as sellers outnumber buyers (March 2025 Market Report)

The Housing Bubble of the last 30 years needs to collapse. And it will collapse.

By "collapse", you mean...?

GNL says

"By "collapse", you mean...?"

Three times the median income - and lower, if interest rates are high.

I hope so but still think inflation will keep it from tanking as much as last time. We are living in crazy times I guess anything could happen.

The_Deplorable says

GNL says

"By "collapse", you mean...?"

Three times the median income - and lower, if interest rates are high.

We bought in 2016 and the bank was allowing up to 5 times household income. I do remember back in late 1998 when I first bought a home that the bank was applying a 3.5 times household income standard. I think the closest we came to that 3 times household income standard was last in the mid to late 1990s.

The_Deplorable says

GNL says

"By "collapse", you mean...?"

Three times the median income - and lower, if interest rates are high.

I assume you mean median HOUSEHOLD income. What's considered high rates nowadays?

RC2006 says

I hope so but still think inflation will keep it from tanking as much as last time. We are living in crazy times I guess anything could happen.

It was almost 7 at the last housing bubble : https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/

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zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/homes-sell-slowest-pace-since-2019/

U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years

As they should with higher rates and fewer people moving. Less work movement. Work from home. Locked into a 3-5%, why move. Gen X is priced out so people aren't putting their homes on the market.

I'm too lazy to look up the numbers, but the amount of licensed Realtors is the number people need to track. If you can't make a living or some money, you get out of the business. There's no inventory. Prices are going to be flat for a while, with urban areas taking a small beating due to migration out of cities. They're all shit.

GNL says

"I assume you mean median HOUSEHOLD income."

No, I don't. I mean the median income for an individual.

The_Deplorable says

GNL says

"I assume you mean median HOUSEHOLD income."

No, I don't. I mean the median income for an individual.

That was $52k in 2023. You think the median is going to drop to about $175k or so?

The FHA has been secretly paying delinquent mortgages since COVID, Trump just announced that program is coming to an end.

https://nevadacurrent.com/2025/04/17/trump-ends-fha-covid-era-mortgage-assistance/

Get ready for more inventory!

AmericanKulak says

The FHA has been secretly paying delinquent mortgages since COVID, Trump just announced that program is coming to an end.

https://nevadacurrent.com/2025/04/17/trump-ends-fha-covid-era-mortgage-assistance/

Get ready for more inventory!

Biden announced the COVID pandemic was over yet they continued this Democrat give away a long with others like about $175 billion in student loan forgiveness during Biden's administration.

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So many of this type of Biden admin decisions explains why I think Trump is trying to do as much as he can to reverse the damage.

Glock-n-Load says

"That was $52k in 2023. You think the median is going to drop to about $175k or so?"

Yes.

AmericanKulak says

The FHA has been secretly paying delinquent mortgages since COVID, Trump just announced that program is coming to an end.

Costs them more on foreclosure. They're not going to foreclose if there's a crisis this time. They're going to defer payments. 1,000% cheaper than foreclosing. We probably had 200 foreclosure sales in our brokerage. Given mortgages are amortized or they were ARM's, if it was paid for 1-2 years it was really hard to lose money.

They lost the money in the foreclosure process because of time. Time is money and management in foreclosures. We'd get paid for BPO's, visits to the house and then obviously commission on a foreclosure.

When you factor in paying for services, commission and time on a non-performing loan it probably cost the banks and Fannie/Freddie $100k/house. If they deferred payment the housing crash would have been somewhat of a nothing burger. Most the clients we had could have turned their situation around in 3-6 months. Throw that on the back of a 30 year note and it's not that big of a deal.

But they waited 6 months to foreclose and then the owner could show up to court all while living for free and extend it to 12-24 months. They just pissed away 1-2 years of interest that was likely 90% of the loan.

And yes, there were shit loans, but most could have performed. It took too long for building to stop. That's what's happening in major hipster metros again. The smart builders should know when to tap the brakes but there's new guys now that didn't experience it. My builder is retiring after our build. Does 2-3 homes a year and he says there's not a ton of demand for custom right now in our area. A lot of the subdivision builders (big corps) have started picking up though. Digging a hole everyday in my town. There's no inventory here.

AD says

So many of this type of Biden admin decisions explains why I think Trump is trying to do as much as he can to reverse the damage.

Nothing is permanent until it's established by a law passed through the Congress. All that EO shit is reversible.

Eric Holder says

AD says

So many of this type of Biden admin decisions explains why I think Trump is trying to do as much as he can to reverse the damage.

Nothing is permanent until it's established by a law passed through the Congress. All that EO shit is reversible.

You do realize Birdbrain Biden gave away about $175 billion for student loan forgiveness despite the SCOTUS ruling ?

Birdbrain Biden was Obama's 3rd term but with a lot more radicalism as Biden admin had more to prove, so whatever you said does not apply to Biden giveaways and freebies like mortgage relief, student loan forgiveness, etc

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/22/politics/biden-student-loan-forgiveness-supreme-court/index.html

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AD says

You do realize Birdbrain Biden gave away about $175 billion for student loan forgiveness despite the SCOTUS ruling ?

Birdbrain Biden was Obama's 3rd term but with a lot more radicalism as Biden admin had more to prove, so whatever you said does not apply to Biden giveaways and freebies like mortgage relief, student loan forgiveness, etc

So how any of this contradict the fact that any EO reversing this can be in turn reversed by President OAC in 2029?

Eric Holder says

AD says

You do realize Birdbrain Biden gave away about $175 billion for student loan forgiveness despite the SCOTUS ruling ?

Birdbrain Biden was Obama's 3rd term but with a lot more radicalism as Biden admin had more to prove, so whatever you said does not apply to Biden giveaways and freebies like mortgage relief, student loan forgiveness, etc

So how any of this contradict the fact that any EO reversing this can be in turn reversed by President OAC in 2029?

Yes I agree, as go back to the Biden admin saying they were throwing gold bricks off a sinking ship before Trump's inauguration.

A lot of those gold bricks are grants for Stacie Abrams style NGO's that funnel the money to pass-throughs like Act Blue and Bend The Arc, which fund the AntiFa activists that terrorize and vandalize as well as stuff absentee ballot boxes.

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Eric Holder says

So how any of this contradict the fact that any EO reversing this can be in turn reversed by President OAC in 2029?

If it works. That's the key. If an EO works it's hard to reverse it even if it's another party. Also Congress can make it law up until 2026 or 2028 if R's keep Congress at midterms. We're not even at 100 days. Congress hasn't had time to legislate anything.

There's a lot of turn over in the House with 2 year terms learning the ropes. It will be fall before anything gets legislated. Basically end of year to start beginning judgement.

WookieMan says

If it works. That's the key. If an EO works it's hard to reverse it even if it's another party.

I'm talking about all the Birdbrain Biden giveaways and freebies that WORKED like the student loan forgiveness and the COVID mortgage payments that were still handouts AFTER Birdbrain Biden said the COVID pandemic was over.

So YES IT WORKED by Biden admin to give out as much money as they could even with SCOTUS ruling against them.

WookieMan says

If an EO works it's hard to reverse it even if it's another party.

What world do you live on?

WookieMan says

If it works. That's the key.

No. The key is it's easily reverseable. Works today, gone tomorrow. Compare it to stuff encoded in laws by Congress, like Obamacare. If it was implemented by an EO it would be GONE in 2017.

AmericanKulak says

Get ready for more inventory!

I would love that.

Patrick says

AmericanKulak says

Get ready for more inventory!

I would love that.

I want 10% mortgages - bring back the 80's mutherfuckers!

stereotomy says

I want 10% mortgages - bring back the 80's mutherfuckers!

10% in the 80s? In 1982, it was 14% or more.

HeadSet says

stereotomy says

I want 10% mortgages - bring back the 80's mutherfuckers!

10% in the 80s? In 1982, it was 14% or more.

In 1982 the economy was in the shitter though.

WookieMan says

Costs them more on foreclosure.

Costs the taxpayer you mean. Let the free market do it's job. Although the rules do need to be altered to make it worth both the banks and the houseowner to try to negotiate. For example, not making taking a loss for the mortgage writer/holder tax deductible if the note was written less than 7 years ago, thus rightfully making the banks share in the responsibility of issuing too easy credit/making the loan in the first place.

There's too much focus on the unsophisticated homeloaner instead of the bank fulla experts who constantly talk about how smart and educated they are to justify their big salaries and commish and bonuses. Let these wise great ones have a little responsibility for their permanent plateaus and loose lending standards.

I'm not saying the retarded buyer doesn't have responsibility, but they'll pay in bankruptcy. Let the bank have to eat a less/non-tax deductible loss, too, since it will disincentivize banks from being obnoxiously exhuberant in writing the loans.

AmericanKulak says

Let these wise great ones have a little responsibility for their permanent plateaus and loose lending standards.

Remember that the banks were forced to loosen credit standards by the government to allow more minorities buy homes.