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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   650,808 views  6,513 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   ignore (1)  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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6239   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 20, 10:05pm  

WookieMan says


I don't know the wages down there.

Carpenters and Masons basically make in the high teens and low 20s. HVAC low $20s. The elite skilled perhaps mid-high $20s.

Basically the most elite tradesmen in Florida make what entry-level does in most other states, esp. ones with comparable home prices.

If you think I'm exaggerating:
The average entry/mid-level salary for an HVAC technician is around $22 per hour. This equals $45,760 per year.
The average salary for a senior HVAC technician is $27.65 per hour. This equals $57,512 per year.‍
https://faradaycareers.com/careers/hvac-salary-florida
6240   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 20, 10:18pm  

AD says

But it may prop up The Villages real estate as it elevates real estate just south of The Villages which is home to these workers in the white colored jobs and light manufacturing sector.


Sure. But I would demand that the realtor omit the Villages from whatever CMA resort they generate.
6241   AD   2025 Apr 20, 10:58pm  

MolotovCocktail says

AD says


But it may prop up The Villages real estate as it elevates real estate just south of The Villages which is home to these workers in the white colored jobs and light manufacturing sector.


Sure. But I would demand that the realtor omit the Villages from whatever CMA resort they generate.


The Villages may undergo reforms to increase demand for its housing and adapt to the demographic changes such as its no longer a +55 year old community.

It's within about 15 minutes of Ocala and 60 minutes to Gainesville (assume avg speed is 60 mph on Interstate 75) and 60 minutes to Walt Disney World.

Ocala is a growing jobs center: https://www.wcjb.com/2025/04/16/continuous-growth-ocala-causing-businesses-expand/

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6242   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 20, 11:29pm  

The average wage in Florida is a whopping $24/hr (actually a little less but rounding up here).
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/--in-Florida

These are what Florida jobs pay Florida employees, not what Harrisburg, PA School District or Lockheed Martin retiree gets in pension.

My guess that the $55k income was inflated by pensions was correct.

At 33% of income devoted to housing, it means a 2 bed should be about $1270/month for rent OR equivalent PITI payment.

At $1700/month, Florida average 2 bedroom rent would suck out 45% of a median wage earners salary. And I didn't take anything off for Soc Sec or Tax withholds or Health Care contributions, etc. I generously considered the entire gross pay. If I didn't, it would probably be 50%.

But, the $1700 has dropped and will continue to do so.
6243   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 20, 11:40pm  

Florida goes up one point to the 49th least affordable state (Cost of Living vs. Average wages) in the Union:



“Grocery prices, rent, you know, all that is getting higher, and they’re not paying any more,” said Kwame Ratliff, who lives in West Palm Beach. “I am looking to move, because it is a little expensive here.”

According to personal finance website WalletHub, Florida ranked Florida number 49, nearly dead last as the least affordable state.

“What should we do to kind of get that ranking up?” asked WFLX reporter Joel Lopez.

“Well for starters, maybe make the state a little more affordable,” said Chip Lupo, a writer and analyst with WalletHub.

Lupo said that affordability is factored in housing costs, income, debt and more.

...

Affordability, while low, is one spot higher at 49 than last year when Florida ranked as the worst, landing the number 50 spot.


https://www.wflx.com/2025/01/14/this-is-where-florida-ranks-affordability/

Nothing that pounding down rents and asset prices can't fix.
6244   AD   2025 Apr 20, 11:55pm  

AmericanKulak says

At $1700/month, Florida average 2 bedroom rent would suck out 45% of a median wage earners salary.


I know someone looking to move to Colorado Springs and a nice 2 bedroom/2 bath apartment is $2000 there , and the apartment management company says they allow up to 50% of income to go to the rent as far as qualifying to lease there.

Colorado Springs is about 8% more in cost of living than Panama City Beach Florida (which used to be cheap when I first stationed there in early 1990s like a nice 1 bedroom garage apartment on the beach was $300)

and Colorado Springs is about 7% more in cost of living than the national average, whereas Panama City Beach is 1% more than the national average.

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6245   Ceffer   2025 Apr 21, 12:27am  

Seems there are many states that are a lot less affordable than Florida. Is that stat for real?
6246   AD   2025 Apr 21, 12:29am  

AmericanKulak says

Affordability, while low, is one spot higher at 49 than last year when Florida ranked as the worst, landing the number 50 spot.

https://www.wflx.com/2025/01/14/this-is-where-florida-ranks-affordability/

Nothing that pounding down rents and asset prices can't fix.


I see Trump trying to do that , and Powell is also to some extent as the Federal Reserve continues to reduce its mortgage back securities holdings (i.e., quantitative tightening). The Wolfman at Wolf Street has a very informative article about this at the Wolf Street website.

Back in 2016 we bought a new 3 bedroom/2.5 bath/2 car garage townhome in Panama City Beach. Our 30 yr mortgage rate was and remains 3%.

It seemed affordable for the service worker types back then as our bank said we just needed $37,000 in annual income to qualify as the housing monthly cost was $800 principal + interest, $100 property tax, $100 property insurance and $250 HOA regular assessment.

So the $1250 monthly housing cost was about 40% of gross income.

Assuming a 3% annual appreciation rate since 2016, the home could sell for around $245,000 and the costs are around $400 for HOA regular assessment, $150 for property tax, $150 for property insurance.

Assume 7% interest rate for 30 year mortgage and 0% down payment (i.e. VA mortgage, etc) and the monthly mortgage is around $1630.

So total monthly cost now is $2430 compared to $1250 in 2016

Monthly housing cost for our type of Panama City Beach townhome has increased about 8% since 2016 and that is what American Kulak has been explaining why Florida is that unaffordable :-(

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6247   WookieMan   2025 Apr 21, 12:33am  

AmericanKulak says

If you think I'm exaggerating:

I don't think that. The problem is it's a service industry state by a large margin. 90% of IL is farm fields. Then Chicago with tech, banking and other large firms. Our government also pays well. The guys on the crews for my wife's company are knocking out $45-65/hr. Overtime is in the $100/hr range. They then get unemployment and do cash side jobs in the winter. They're making $100-120/yr.

I think this is how FL can do without state income tax. Low wages. $45/hr is 100% more than $20/hr in taxes.

I don't get it, everyone up here has some expensive toy. $40k side by side. Boat. IL is still a laughing stock, but people do very well here. Outside of maybe Chicago, no one wakes up and is like, let's go to IL. Most the business is for higher end people. No people on a budget coming from AL, GA, MS or TN. Those aren't big spenders here. Usually foreigners.
6248   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 21, 1:02am  

AD says


I know someone looking to move to Colorado Springs and a nice 2 bedroom/2 bath apartment is $2000 there , and the apartment management company says they allow up to 50% of income to go to the rent as far as qualifying to lease there.

Colorado Springs is about 8% more in cost of living than Panama City Beach Florida (which used to be cheap when I first stationed there in early 1990s like a nice 1 bedroom garage apartment on the beach was $300)

and Colorado Springs is about 7% more in cost of living than the national average, whereas Panama City Beach is 1% more than the national average.


The average hourly wage for workers in the Colorado Springs, CO Metropolitan Statistical Area was $31.59 in May 2023, which is slightly higher than the nationwide average of $31.48.
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mountain-plains/news-release/occupationalemploymentandwages_coloradosprings.htm

Here's the same for Panama City, $25.37
https://www.bls.gov/oes/2023/may/oes_37460.htm#00-0000

Both are from 2023. So the wage difference is 20% in favor of Colorado.
6249   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 21, 1:24am  

Ceffer says


Seems there are many states that are a lot less affordable than Florida. Is that stat for real?

It's real. Affordability is a mix of income versus cost of living.

Retirement Articles and other pieces leave out the income part of the equation and act as if wages are similar nationally.
6250   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 21, 1:29am  

AD says


Monthly housing cost for our type of Panama City Beach townhome has increased about 8% since 2016 and that is what American Kulak has been explaining why Florida is that unaffordable :-(

My monthly building expense is up from $320 in 2018 to $460 in 2024, 90% of that was insurance costs, 10% everything else (trash, maintenance, etc) My property tax went from ~$800/year to $1150 in about the same time period.

I believe we got hit by one tropical storm AFTER it crossed the state from the West and was weak (the eye passed almost exactly over the Shuttle Airstrip) and damage was minimal.

Whatever is driving high costs in Florida, it isn't wage increases. It's FIRE fuckery. Take a look at FL State Salaries and compare to your State for a shock.
6251   AD   2025 Apr 21, 1:31am  

WookieMan says

I think this is how FL can do without state income tax.


Tourism helps a lot with 7% sales tax on hotel rooms and vacation rentals, as well as 5% "bed tax" also. Panama City Beach has about 18,000 hotel rooms, motel rooms, and Beach condo rentals. Figure 50% occupancy with very conservative average $225 per evening and that is

18,000 units x 0.5 x 365 days x $225 per day x 0.07 = $51,738,750 in sales tax going to the state

about 1/7 of that $51.73 million stays within Bay County and 6/7 of it goes to the state government in Tallahassee

a lot of the "bed tax" money stays within Bay County like they pay local contractors to build a sports park, pay contractors to maintain the sports park facilities, etc.

.
6253   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 22, 8:44pm  

Zillow downgrades their forecast for the housing market yet again. I think this is the 3-4th time since late last year

This time across every major metro area in the USA.

6254   AD   2025 Apr 22, 9:54pm  

AmericanKulak says

Zillow downgrades their forecast for the housing market yet again. I think this is the 3-4th time since late last year

This time across every major metro area in the USA.


Maybe the air will slowly be let out of the housing balloon for the next 3 to 5 years while income increases about 2.5% a year and the 30 yr mortgage rate remains no more than 7%.

.
6255   WookieMan   2025 Apr 23, 4:17am  

AmericanKulak says

This time across every major metro area in the USA.

My usual hint. Don't live in a major metro areas. Millennials and Boomers have moved at this point. So demand is low because of prices for Gen Z in urban and suburban areas. I've always pegged Gen X as the stubborn grunge generation that wants to defy what is obvious. That was my former boss that did change even when presented with data. So they plant their roots and stay.

Boomers will cut and run from metros. Millennials have kids and run. Most I know have have a 30 min max commute or work from home. There's no point in being in a major metro. With kids I honestly think it's a form of child abuse to live in a city and even many suburbs.

I wish these companies would do better stats and press on rural areas. That doesn't get them clicks though. I wish I still had my MLS access. I could prove my point in probably 10 min. with stats. I don't trust the public stuff or what's reported. Also people don't know this but you can opt out of IDX, data shared to public websites. Basically hidden listings. We had sellers that didn't want neighbors to know the house was on the market.

Basically there's a shadow market you cats won't even know about, only brokers with the access. You'd only find out if/when it closes or if you have a buyers agent. This is mostly for privacy issues. A lot of people don't want neighbors coming through their house for various reasons.
6256   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 23, 7:41am  

AD says

3 to 5 years while income increases about 2.5% a year



6257   zzyzzx   2025 Apr 23, 8:13am  

https://www.zillow.com/research/march-2025-market-report-35082/

Home values flatten as sellers outnumber buyers (March 2025 Market Report)
6258   zzyzzx   2025 Apr 23, 8:15am  

https://www.redfin.com/news/homes-sell-slowest-pace-since-2019/

U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years
6259   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 23, 8:34am  

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/homes-sell-slowest-pace-since-2019/

U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years

zzyzzx says

https://www.zillow.com/research/march-2025-market-report-35082/

Home values flatten as sellers outnumber buyers (March 2025 Market Report)



6260   AD   2025 Apr 23, 8:58am  

One motivation factor for selling is the proliferation of subprime mortgages as owners are unable to remain financial solvent with paying at least mortgage and property tax, while the HOA assessment balance, if applicable, continues to increase.

I remember even in my townhome HOA back in 2007 to 2011 of homeowners just walking away and their townhomes becoming "Real Estate Owned (REO)" and/or sold in a fire sale.

Are the same conditions now as they were 2007 to 2011 such as unemployment ? Granted the Feds balance sheet is a lot bigger now (relative to GDP) than it was back then.
6261   The_Deplorable   2025 Apr 23, 2:13pm  

zzyzzx says
"Home values flatten as sellers outnumber buyers (March 2025 Market Report)

The Housing Bubble of the last 30 years needs to collapse. And it will collapse.
6262   GNL   2025 Apr 23, 3:53pm  

The_Deplorable says

zzyzzx says

"Home values flatten as sellers outnumber buyers (March 2025 Market Report)

The Housing Bubble of the last 30 years needs to collapse. And it will collapse.

By "collapse", you mean...?
6263   The_Deplorable   2025 Apr 23, 4:32pm  

GNL says
"By "collapse", you mean...?"

Three times the median income - and lower, if interest rates are high.
6264   RC2006   2025 Apr 23, 5:42pm  

I hope so but still think inflation will keep it from tanking as much as last time. We are living in crazy times I guess anything could happen.
6265   AD   2025 Apr 23, 5:48pm  

The_Deplorable says


GNL says

"By "collapse", you mean...?"

Three times the median income - and lower, if interest rates are high.



We bought in 2016 and the bank was allowing up to 5 times household income. I do remember back in late 1998 when I first bought a home that the bank was applying a 3.5 times household income standard. I think the closest we came to that 3 times household income standard was last in the mid to late 1990s.
6266   GNL   2025 Apr 23, 5:50pm  

The_Deplorable says

GNL says

"By "collapse", you mean...?"

Three times the median income - and lower, if interest rates are high.

I assume you mean median HOUSEHOLD income. What's considered high rates nowadays?
6267   AD   2025 Apr 23, 7:47pm  

RC2006 says

I hope so but still think inflation will keep it from tanking as much as last time. We are living in crazy times I guess anything could happen.


It was almost 7 at the last housing bubble : https://www.longtermtrends.net/home-price-median-annual-income-ratio/

.
6268   WookieMan   2025 Apr 23, 11:45pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/homes-sell-slowest-pace-since-2019/

U.S. Homes Are Selling at the Slowest Pace in 6 Years

As they should with higher rates and fewer people moving. Less work movement. Work from home. Locked into a 3-5%, why move. Gen X is priced out so people aren't putting their homes on the market.

I'm too lazy to look up the numbers, but the amount of licensed Realtors is the number people need to track. If you can't make a living or some money, you get out of the business. There's no inventory. Prices are going to be flat for a while, with urban areas taking a small beating due to migration out of cities. They're all shit.
6269   The_Deplorable   2025 Apr 24, 12:34am  

GNL says
"I assume you mean median HOUSEHOLD income."

No, I don't. I mean the median income for an individual.
6270   Glock-n-Load   2025 Apr 24, 11:26am  

The_Deplorable says

GNL says

"I assume you mean median HOUSEHOLD income."

No, I don't. I mean the median income for an individual.

That was $52k in 2023. You think the median is going to drop to about $175k or so?
6271   AmericanKulak   2025 Apr 24, 12:23pm  

The FHA has been secretly paying delinquent mortgages since COVID, Trump just announced that program is coming to an end.

https://nevadacurrent.com/2025/04/17/trump-ends-fha-covid-era-mortgage-assistance/

Get ready for more inventory!
6272   AD   2025 Apr 24, 12:36pm  

AmericanKulak says

The FHA has been secretly paying delinquent mortgages since COVID, Trump just announced that program is coming to an end.

https://nevadacurrent.com/2025/04/17/trump-ends-fha-covid-era-mortgage-assistance/

Get ready for more inventory!


Biden announced the COVID pandemic was over yet they continued this Democrat give away a long with others like about $175 billion in student loan forgiveness during Biden's administration.

.
6273   AD   2025 Apr 24, 1:56pm  

So many of this type of Biden admin decisions explains why I think Trump is trying to do as much as he can to reverse the damage.


6274   The_Deplorable   2025 Apr 24, 6:20pm  

Glock-n-Load says
"That was $52k in 2023. You think the median is going to drop to about $175k or so?"

Yes.
6275   WookieMan   2025 Apr 25, 5:44am  

AmericanKulak says

The FHA has been secretly paying delinquent mortgages since COVID, Trump just announced that program is coming to an end.

Costs them more on foreclosure. They're not going to foreclose if there's a crisis this time. They're going to defer payments. 1,000% cheaper than foreclosing. We probably had 200 foreclosure sales in our brokerage. Given mortgages are amortized or they were ARM's, if it was paid for 1-2 years it was really hard to lose money.

They lost the money in the foreclosure process because of time. Time is money and management in foreclosures. We'd get paid for BPO's, visits to the house and then obviously commission on a foreclosure.

When you factor in paying for services, commission and time on a non-performing loan it probably cost the banks and Fannie/Freddie $100k/house. If they deferred payment the housing crash would have been somewhat of a nothing burger. Most the clients we had could have turned their situation around in 3-6 months. Throw that on the back of a 30 year note and it's not that big of a deal.

But they waited 6 months to foreclose and then the owner could show up to court all while living for free and extend it to 12-24 months. They just pissed away 1-2 years of interest that was likely 90% of the loan.

And yes, there were shit loans, but most could have performed. It took too long for building to stop. That's what's happening in major hipster metros again. The smart builders should know when to tap the brakes but there's new guys now that didn't experience it. My builder is retiring after our build. Does 2-3 homes a year and he says there's not a ton of demand for custom right now in our area. A lot of the subdivision builders (big corps) have started picking up though. Digging a hole everyday in my town. There's no inventory here.
6276   Eric Holder   2025 Apr 25, 1:51pm  

AD says

So many of this type of Biden admin decisions explains why I think Trump is trying to do as much as he can to reverse the damage.





Nothing is permanent until it's established by a law passed through the Congress. All that EO shit is reversible.
6277   AD   2025 Apr 25, 2:12pm  

Eric Holder says

AD says


So many of this type of Biden admin decisions explains why I think Trump is trying to do as much as he can to reverse the damage.





Nothing is permanent until it's established by a law passed through the Congress. All that EO shit is reversible.


You do realize Birdbrain Biden gave away about $175 billion for student loan forgiveness despite the SCOTUS ruling ?

Birdbrain Biden was Obama's 3rd term but with a lot more radicalism as Biden admin had more to prove, so whatever you said does not apply to Biden giveaways and freebies like mortgage relief, student loan forgiveness, etc

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/22/politics/biden-student-loan-forgiveness-supreme-court/index.html

.
6278   Eric Holder   2025 Apr 25, 2:16pm  

AD says

You do realize Birdbrain Biden gave away about $175 billion for student loan forgiveness despite the SCOTUS ruling ?

Birdbrain Biden was Obama's 3rd term but with a lot more radicalism as Biden admin had more to prove, so whatever you said does not apply to Biden giveaways and freebies like mortgage relief, student loan forgiveness, etc


So how any of this contradict the fact that any EO reversing this can be in turn reversed by President OAC in 2029?

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