patrick.net

HeadSet says

stereotomy says

I want 10% mortgages - bring back the 80's mutherfuckers!

10% in the 80s? In 1982, it was 14% or more.

Even better!

HeadSet says

Remember that the banks were forced to loosen credit standards by the government to allow more minorities buy homes.

In many cases, yes. I'm sure the FHA program Trump just ended is overwhelmingly not just minority, but imingrate.

Another great idea: FHA limited to 15 year loans, though the VA can still do 20-30.

We gotta help the housing market reset.

Nothing will smash socialism and restore disposable income and savings faster than pounding house prices and rent to the ground. Make it weird to be paying more than 25% for housing costs. It's going to happen and it has to happen, now is a good time. It's always a good time to send real estate back to reality!

AmericanKulak says

HeadSet says

Remember that the banks were forced to loosen credit standards by the government to allow more minorities buy homes.

In many cases, yes. I'm sure the FHA program Trump just ended is overwhelmingly not just minority, but imingrate.

Before the Great Depression (a euphemism used instead of the panics that preceded it). housing loans were 15 year balloon loans- interest only with principal due at the end of the loan.

The fact is, before WWII, most people living in cities rented. The non-rich people who owned their properties were farmers, who were slaves to the bankers for loans for seed and then later at harvest, for paying laborers.

Over the vast majority of human history worldwide, property owners were the minority. Everyone else rented, or were serfs or slaves.

The post WWII housing boom was a multimillennial economic anomaly. it will not be repeated unless our current globalist technocracy completely collapses and we are reduced to subsistence living. "Red in tooth and claw."

AmericanKulak says

Another great idea: FHA limited to 15 year loans, though the VA can still do 20-30.

Agree, but why let the VA do 20-30? That will just increase the costs of homes near military bases.

stereotomy says

who were slaves to the bankers for loans for seed

This is one thing I never understood. Did Jefferson on his big acreage or a Puritan freeholder on a 40 acre farm have to borrow money to keep some seedgrain?

What I heard is that farmers way overexpanded during WW1 to take advantage of big demand for grains, then after the War when European men left the military, in the next few years their output was restored and their imports from the US declined greatly.

US Farmers were then stuck with big loans for expanding in size and tools in a declining commodity in too much volume to dispose of economically.

stereotomy says

The post WWII housing boom was a multimillennial economic anomaly.

Correct. Thae ability to buy a home was greatly enhance by the invention of the self-amortizing loan and the fact that a working man could earn enough to house and feed a family. Even today though, about 40% of homes are paid off with no mortgage.

Eric Holder says

All that EO shit is reversible.

Not if you're a Republican president trying to reverse it!

WookieMan says

We're not even at 100 days. Congress hasn't had time to legislate anything.

They are sitting on their hairy little asses. Again. Same with the administration except for tariffs and deportations. Like Lucy and Charlie Brown with the foot ball.

We have Barbie for AG who appears to just like going on Faux News.

By this time in the Bidet admin over 400 protestors were arrested from the event at the Capital and Judicial activist lawsuits against Trump were already in full swing.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

They are sitting on their hairy little asses.

To me its progress as far as not continuing Birdbrain Biden agenda and programs like his ~$175 billion for student loan forgiveness, the COVID mortgage payouts, USAID corruption, and reforms to aid to Ukraine.

I think Trump is going to adjust tariffs over time which means reduction of tariffs.

But a lot of what Trump is doing is likely leading to him likely reporting as early as this December about his administration's achievements such as manufacturing jobs, reduction in the trade deficit, decrease in deficit spending, etc

2022 - Home prices will go up forever, there are bidding wars

2023 - OK prices stopped going up, but there's no inventory

2024 - OK there's inventory, but prices have only gone down a little

2025 - OK there's a lot of inventory and prices are falling, but they won't fall much

2026 - OK prices are falling, but they won't return to prepandemic levels

2027 - OK my house is upside down, does anyone know anything about short sales?

2028 - OK I can't believe there was such a massive bubble, housing will never go back to those prices.

2029 - wow there are a lot of vacant houses, the boomers owned way too many homes

2030 - they're giving away empty houses in Ohio now

2035 - wow entire towns are totally empty.

"The median home price is actually up"

Yeah, because the housing market for people with no money issues is still fine and dandy for the most part, and while slower they still sell. Since only closed and sold homes are counted, it can go up while home sale volume plummets, especially under the $300k mark.

Just like if half the kids stop taking the SAT, but the top 10% of students are still taking it in numbers only slightly less from before, the median SAT score goes up.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

We have Barbie for AG who appears to just like going on Faux News.

Not impressed with the Dakota dog executor, either. Homeland Security Barbie.

I think Bondi is a reliable person who will do right when it crosses her desk - eventually after much delay - but not a real go-getter with a killer instinct.

MolotovCocktail says

2035 - wow entire towns are totally empty.

sounds like the demographics bomb in Italy especially southern Italy

the only thing is that the homes that are vacant may be at least 80 years old and past their useful life in "old communities" like Midwest rust belt , so they already were set to be demolished

.

I'm living on a different planet than some of you people I guess. In the past week I've driven 60 miles from my house to 3 different locations. No for sale signs anywhere. North, south and west of me. That's a big area, yes rural, but there's nothing for sale.

Cities are going to get fucked in this cycle more than anything. Since those prices are higher national median and local median prices are going to plummet and look like shit, but it's not that bad in most of rural America.

I think most active users here are in coastal areas and seemingly don't travel inland. Texas is kind of part of the inland group that is similar to coastal people. I've had multiple friends move to FL only to move back. CO the same. TX the same. Moving back to IL... grass isn't always greener on the other side. So home prices in those places could take a beating.

WookieMan says

I've had multiple friends move to FL only to move back. CO the same

Yes for Florida as I believe in general it will correct by about 20% from its all time high in 2022.

Its already down about 11% where I live in Panama City Beach, and some townhomes are selling at their 2006 market values.

I had a RE agent that told me it would take 20 years for many real estate properties to recover from the Clinton housing bubble (2003 to 2006).

I'm not sure about Colorado Springs as far as more Californians moving there especially with large insurance payouts of +$1 million for their burned down homes.

AD says

I had a RE agent that told me it would take 20 years for many real estate properties to recover from the Clinton housing bubble (2003 to 2006).

My folks got their condo in Navarre Beach, FL about 60 minutes west of PCB for $85k in 1998. Sold it for around $350k in 2005. Boomer bubble.

My mom just got everything out of the FL market they had about 3-4 years ago. Wish they would have gotten Wisconsin property. My dad was a gambler though that took stupid risks. I do love the Panhandle and wish he had just kept the property in the family.

WookieMan says

I'm living on a different planet than some of you people

We have only been trying to tell you this for years.

It's not that 'your planet' isn't valid/real for you and your neighbors. It's just that usually isn't for the rest of us.

AmericanKulak says

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

We have Barbie for AG who appears to just like going on Faux News.

Not impressed with the Dakota dog executor, either. Homeland Security Barbie.

I think Bondi is a reliable person who will do right when it crosses her desk - eventually after much delay - but not a real go-getter with a killer instinct.

Sadly, the whole admin is a gang of bimbos. And not all of them are even pretty.

Maga_Chaos_Monkey says

Eric Holder says

All that EO shit is reversible.

Not if you're a Republican president trying to reverse it!

Crying about "hypocricy" is weak sause. The only way to do it right is through Congress.

MolotovCocktail says

It's not that 'your planet' isn't valid/real for you and your neighbors. It's just that usually isn't for the rest of us.

Then move? I feel like I'm talking to a whiney liberal. NIMBY type. "Wah my housing and rents are too high, let it crash."

There are choices in life. Fix the problem or deal with your choice. Move, make more money, get a better job, etc.

I'm sorry, but there are a lot of whiney users here. Hell people thinking Trump is gonna come save them. This is a housing thread. If your housing situation is shit, move. If you have any skills move to IL and get a $200k house and a $75-100k job with a high school degree. Hell Iowa or Nebraska.

Nope... everyone here needs their weather and coastal regions. Complaining about a decision you make is weak. Keep looking at your statistics and thinking the rest of the country is in your self induced predicament. They're not.

RWSGFY says

Crying about "hypocricy" is weak sause. The only way to do it right is through Congress.

Hmm, for some reason I don't believe you cared when Biden was in office.

GNL says

RWSGFY says

Crying about "hypocricy" is weak sause. The only way to do it right is through Congress.

Hmm, for some reason I don't believe you cared when Biden was in office.

You didn't read my posts then.

PS. Have you read "The Art of the Deal", btw?

I could be wrong. If so, that’s on me. My bad. But I’ll just say that this is where we are now imo. The rubicon has been crossed (unless this is all a uniparty game that is). Both sides will go after the other in worse and worse ways. I think.

AD says

sounds like the demographics bomb in Italy especially southern Italy

Yep! Already in Sicily. Once upon a time, even 200 years ago, Sicilian farmland was a goldmine. Before that, 2000 years ago, it was the "First Egypt" of Rome, the first major grain province Rome dependent on for imports. Equivalent of Napa Valley farmland today.

Now they can't give it away because of tax liens and total lack of employment. Italy is basically telling seniors they're not getting elder care unless they leave certain smaller islands off Sicily as it's simply too expensive to maintain services there for the couple of hundred elderly still remaining

WookieMan says

Texas is kind of part of the inland group that is similar to coastal people.

Texas has the next biggest volume and biggest drops after Florida (130,000 unsold homes).

TN also is dropping big and their rental market is collapsing.

Austin is collapsing in volume and price.

To bore you to death with repetition, we're looking at a long term demographic crunch that is going to happen regardless of Economic Conditions. The "We didn't build enough" is incorrect, even with 30M illegals. People say "We didn't build enough" and then go on to talk about all the massive amounts of new building and how their town has like tripled in area these past 20-30 years and the traffic sucks.

People think when I talk about Florida having ~$150k modest (2-3 bed, 1.5-2 bath) townhouses and ranches just a few miles off the beach being like an old fart talking about 25c hamburgers in the 1970s or me (a slightly less aged Old Fart) talking about Hershey Bars being 40c in 1990.

The difference is, these WERE the prices not 50 years ago when Peter Frampton Came Alive, or when the KLF was channeling the Justified And Ancients of MuMu, but a decade ago - or mere years ago in 2019.

Some random ass examples across Florida of ordinary houses I found in less than 5 minutes without trying, from every corner of the state. Tried to pick 80s-90s builds of similar size.

Central East
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/604-Eloise-Ave-Titusville-FL-32796/43375026_zpid/

Panhandle
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7551-Kelsey-Dr-Panama-City-FL-32404/42751645_zpid/

Jax Metro Area
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1410-Runes-Ct-Middleburg-FL-32068/61183179_zpid/
Tampa Metro Area
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/616-Pent-St-Tarpon-Springs-FL-34689/47005926_zpid/
Orlando Metro Area (Delrico, haha)
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2108-E-Parkton-Dr-Deltona-FL-32725/47987033_zpid/

They're all grossly overpriced. Especially after considering the 30% increases in property tax rates, insurance, and the higher mortgage rates. And not getting into Florida's anemic wage gains which are massively outstripped by inflation that they are really substantial pay cuts

Well, it's been 3 years now since this thread started. Except for 2 single months of a decrease (about .1% each), housing on a national basis has been on a steady uptrend. The latest readings from Case/Shiller (where they measure prices of the same houses) hit a new All Time Record. This has been in spite of the doomsayers, claiming population collapse and interest rates that until recently were long forgotten, were gonna crush house prices.

While Florida is a standout because of massive insurance increases and condo HOA increases, the rest of the country more than made up for this one State.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

Misc says

housing on a national basis has been on a steady uptrend

AmericanKulak says

They're all grossly overpriced. Especially after considering the 30% increases in property tax rates, insurance, and the higher mortgage rates. And not getting into Florida's anemic wage gains which are massively outstripped by inflation that they are really substantial pay cuts

Boomers. You have a bunch of old people on fixed incomes that wanted warm weather. Breakfast joints are about the only places doing well. They're not going out to dinner. Not buying alcohol. Not buying goods. They already bought the houses and condos, so demand is going to drop and prices for sure if they're still building. The boomers are done at this point and young people won't make enough.

Snow birds from Canada are the same. Low spenders looking for warm weather for 2-4 months. Spring break and winter break are the big months for FL. Considering it's mostly service jobs that's not enough time to make good money. For blue collar work you have to be near the cruise ports. Otherwise it's restaurants or you need to be white collar.

FL is a retirement and vacation state. Disney is unpopular, so not sure on attendance there. Unless you're an attorney, government worker, medical or other sales jobs, FL is a hard place to make money. Every Millennial I've known that moves down there moves back to IL in 2-4 years roughly.

Also, this is not a knock. I love FL. But for 25-45 year olds it's not the best place to live financially. I love the south but they're not the sharpest knives in the drawer, at least locals or those from AL, MS or GA.

Misc says

While Florida is a standout because of massive insurance increases and condo HOA increases, the rest of the country more than made up for this one State.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPISA

The last 2 years for my zip code in Florida panhandle, the property insurance rates have dropped a little or steadied. And our HOA regular assessment has not increased for the last 3 years without any noticeable change in services.

Our monthly HOA assessment was $200 in 2013 and now is $420, so its gone up about 6% a year with a lot of that due to the HOA master insurance increase of around $60,000 in 2017 to now $300,000. We are insured like condos even though we are townhomes. Granted townhome values went up about 100% since 2013.

I looked at your link above and from 1 January 2000 to 1 January 2020, home prices appreciated about 4% annually.

I remember listening to Professor Robert Shiller on NPR and other news media sources and he stated over a long period that home prices should increase about 4% a year.

AD says

I remember listening to Professor Robert Shiller on NPR and other news media sources and he stated over a long period that home prices should increase about 4% a year.

Over very long periods of time house prices come in at just a tad over the rate of inflation. Stocks come in at about 1% over the rate of inflation.

That's why I am a big proponent of trying to time the markets. With real rates of return sooooo low, it's the only way to have a chance at retirement other than pensions that are force paid by taxpayers.

https://www.redfin.com/news/home-sale-price-vs-list-price-2025/

The Typical Home Seller Wants $39,000 More Than the Typical Buyer Is Willing to Pay

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/home-sale-price-vs-list-price-2025/

a lot of buyers, especially landlord investors for townhomes in Panama City Beach, are staying on the side lines thinking prices will be lower in 2026

maybe prices just stay essentially the same or steady around 10% below all time high prices set in 2022 for the next few years while local household income and wages increase +3% annually

if prices need to decrease 20% from all time high set in early 2022 and townhome prices are already 10% below, then home prices are fairly priced in Panama City Beach because household income has increased at least 15% since early 2022

this is the type of reasoning that the Federal Reserve may be applying in regards to asset prices (home prices)

.

WookieMan says

Snow birds from Canada are the same. Low spenders looking for warm weather for 2-4 months. Spring break and winter break are the big months for FL. Considering it's mostly service jobs that's not enough time to make good money. For blue collar work you have to be near the cruise ports. Otherwise it's restaurants or you need to be white collar.

Canuckistanis didn't come this year in previous numbers. They had a guy on who was originally from Montreal, speaks both French and Hanglish, built his business on Canadians, he's only getting calls to help sell, not buy this past Snowbird season.

Misc says

Well, it's been 3 years now since this thread started. Except for 2 single months of a decrease (about .1% each), housing on a national basis has been on a steady uptrend.

Massive inventory explosion. Asking prices dropping. Rents stagnant while builders slow greatly and cut way back on profitability.

And the cities with the biggest COVID era growth are dropping like a stone in both price and rent.

Sales of Existing Homes Drop to Worst March since 2009. West, South, Midwest, Northeast All Get Crushed. Supply Surges to Highest since 2016
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/04/24/sales-of-existing-homes-drop-to-worst-march-since-2009-west-south-midwest-northeast-all-get-crushed-supply-surges-to-highest-since-2016/

Everybody talks about Darkstone, which was a minor player however much we hate them for ESG.

Nobody talks about Shaniqua Longnails, who with her Government Woke-at-home admin job decided to buy an AirBNB so she can get rich, like many others on TikTok. Now she just got a letter saying no more AIrBNB at Sunny Rest Townhouses, because the people who own-to-live there got tired of the parties

AmericanKulak says

And the cities with the biggest COVID era growth are dropping like a stone in both price and rent.

And that makes it look worse than it is. If you have the money it's cheaper to buy outside of the cities. My school district is small, but families that are 30-45 are moving here. So they're building 58 new homes which is insane for this area. I'm one of the insane. There was nothing for sale and we maxed out our current home and said F it, we're building.

There's 800 homes in my town. You can do the math on adding 58 new ones percentage wise. Hence why my viewpoint is so different than others here. I don't think it's that bad. Chicago, Atlanta, Denver and all the major metro areas will see an outflow. That's not a negative. Those that move will see cost of living plummet which is a net benefit. Just don't fuck up my rural town.

This guy is hilarious

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMLUopR_gd0

Oh yeah, the secret Fannie Mae list of condos buildings they won't finance in due to structural issues.

Misc says

AD says

I remember listening to Professor Robert Shiller on NPR and other news media sources and he stated over a long period that home prices should increase about 4% a year.

Over very long periods of time house prices come in at just a tad over the rate of inflation. Stocks come in at about 1% over the rate of inflation.

That's why I am a big proponent of trying to time the markets. With real rates of return sooooo low, it's the only way to have a chance at retirement other than pensions that are force paid by taxpayers.

From my recent research S&P 500 compound annual growth rate is around 10.5% for the last 30 years versus the compound average growth rate for inflation is about 2.4% (comparing CPI level for 1995 to that of 2025), whereas average inflation rate for 30 years is 2.8%.

A 50% stocks / 50% investment grade bonds fund likely would have yielded about 7.5% annually over the last 30 years.

.

Potential Home buyers relaxing. Despite the best REALTOR(tm) agitprop, they know that the drops are just beginning

They're happy to wait. Why catch a falling knife?

To reverse the old Real Estate Pitch: "Take a break now, and get locked into a better price tomorrow"

The inflated price, not the rate, nor the economy, is what is putting buyers off.