patrick.net

Eman says

That’s quite a generalized statement.

Good points.

GNL says

$$ don't make a person smart. I know a guy who owned a very successful printing company. The guy could not read or write.

If he started and built a very successful business (not inherited), then he is smart. Might have a learning disability or severe dyslexia. Measuring smarts by literacy would put a bilingual Latino kid ahead of his English only speaking Professor.

https://old.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/yq9o7u/price_changes/

Literally two weeks ago, we put an offer on a new construction home with the builder. House was priced pretty high at $735k, and I told the realtor I did not want to exceed the loan limit so our offer will be $675k (I realize this seems low, but it was appropriate for the area/current market). They came back and would not lower the price below $710k. They had a smaller model come available since the original buyer backed out and we tried our offer again at $675k. They came back with $686k. This seemed high still, but we’re having a baby in a couple months so we want to get this move done quickly so we stupidly agreed. We signed contracts with the builder and put down a deposit of $15k. The loan is in process and the approximate move in date is 11/29. Fast forward to today, we stopped by to get a measurement and I see they lowered all of their base prices by $60k and the house that they refused to lower below $710k is now $689k. I realize we should’ve just waited, but this pregnancy has me fat and impatient. Is there anything we can do? Can we ask them to lower the price? Can we try to switch houses now after contracts were signed?

This will affect some markets:
https://www.hrdive.com/news/report-9-in-10-companies-will-require-return-to-office-by-2023/633055/

Report: 9 in 10 companies will require return to office by 2023

zzyzzx says

I realize we should’ve just waited, but this pregnancy has me fat and impatient

Ah, the good old housebuying while pregnant....

HeadSet says

GNL says

$$ don't make a person smart. I know a guy who owned a very successful printing company. The guy could not read or write.

If he started and built a very successful business (not inherited), then he is smart. Might have a learning disability or severe dyslexia. Measuring smarts by literacy would put a bilingual Latino kid ahead of his English only speaking Professor.

Yes, he did inherit it. But he reimagined the company and took all work in over the web. He hired people to create his vision. I'd say that took some intelligence.

zzyzzx says

https://old.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/yq9o7u/price_changes/

Literally two weeks ago, we put an offer on a new construction home with the builder. House was priced pretty high at $735k, and I told the realtor I did not want to exceed the loan limit so our offer will be $675k (I realize this seems low, but it was appropriate for the area/current market). They came back and would not lower the price below $710k. They had a smaller model come available since the original buyer backed out and we tried our offer again at $675k. They came back with $686k. This seemed high still, but we’re having a baby in a couple months so we want to get this move done quickly so we stupidly agreed. We signed contracts with the builder and put down a deposit of $15k. The loan is in process and the approximate move in date is 11/29. Fast forward to today, we stoppe...

Best to never put yourself in a position where you have to do something.

Eric Holder says

Ah, the good old housebuying while pregnant....

The 'nesting imperative' dominated by genetic narcissism trumps common sense.

Ceffer says

Eric Holder says

Ah, the good old housebuying while pregnant....

The 'nesting imperative' dominated by genetic narcissism trumps common sense.

Another "The wife made me do it"...

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/fb33f461-a993-385a-8ba4-823885808a67/d-r-horton%E2%80%99s-earnings-fall.html

D.R. Horton’s Earnings Fall Short as Home Orders Drop and Cancellations Rise

Another real estate investor losing money:
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/ypyjmk/please_advise/

https://news3lv.com/amp/news/local/las-vegas-housing-market-continues-to-cool-in-october-southern-nevada-home-prices-real-estate-listings-mortgage-interest-rates-condos-townhomes

The median price for an existing single-family home sold in Southern Nevada last month was $440,000, the group Las Vegas Realtors reports.

That figure is down 2.2% from September when the median price was $450,000. It's also the fourth time in the last five months that prices have declined and down from the all-time record of $482,000 set in May.

ERECTION INTENSEFYING!!!

https://news.yahoo.com/redfin-shutting-down-home-flipping-140510024.html

Redfin is shutting down its home-flipping business and laying off 13% of staff

Redfin announced it would cut 862 people, or 13% of its staff, on Wednesday.

It's winding down its home-flipping business, RedfinNow, also known as an iBuyer.

The real-estate company Redfin announced on Wednesday that it would lay off 862 staffers, or 13% of its workforce as it sees the housing contraction lingering into 2023.

Of the cuts, 264 of those are related to the company's home-flipping business, RedfinNow, which it will shut down, the company said in a financial filing.

zzyzzx says

Redfin is shutting down its home-flipping business and laying off 13% of staff

So these idiots ventured into flipping too?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-housing-market-should-brace-for-double-digit-mortgage-rates-in-2023-11666302773

Housing market should brace for mortgage rates hitting 10% in 2023, investment banker says

Even if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his cohorts stopped hiking policy rates soon, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate still would climb to 10%, according to Christopher Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors.

That’s because the Fed’s torrid pace of rate increases in 2022 takes time to seep back into mortgage rates, especially with the fed-funds rate already jumping to a 3%-3.25% range in late September, from almost zero a year before.

“Lenders only slowly adjust their rates,” Whalen told MarketWatch. “They are not used to seeing rates moving this fast, and typically would change rates only once a month or once every other month.”

Borrowers pay a premium above risk-free Treasury rates on mortgages to help account for default risks. The 30-year Treasury rate TMUBMUSD30Y, 4.092% rose to 4.213% Thursday, its highest since 2011, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

Freddie Mac on Thursday said the 30-year mortgage rate was averaging 6.94% in its latest weekly survey, a 20-year high that has severely curtailed demand for new home loans.

But with U.S. inflation showing no signs of a clear pullback from a 40-year high, expectations have been running high for the Fed to increase its policy rate by another 75 basis points at its November meeting, and potentially by the same amount again in December, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The CME odds on Thursday favored a 4.75%-5% fed-funds rate to kick off February.

“There is a lag effect in mortgages,” Whalen said, adding that even if central bankers decided to hit pause on additional rate increases after their December meeting, the 30-year mortgage rate still would “easily touch 10% by February.”

Whalen, an investment banker, author and specialist focused on banking and mortgage finance, urged the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in 2008 to move complex and opaque derivatives “back into the daylight,” after banks and investors saw hundreds of billions of dollars in losses tied to structured debt, including subprime mortgage exposure. He also provided testimony to Congress in 2009 about systemic risks of the banking industry.

Importantly, Whalen also sees potential for home prices to give back all of their pandemic gains if rates stay high for all of 2023.

That’s a bigger call than estimates for a 10%-15% correction in home prices from prices that surged 45% nationally during the pandemic.

But Whalen pointed to speculative home flipping volumes that reached almost $150 billion, or 10% of total home sales in 2022, and the cold blanket of double-digit mortgage rates as catalysts for a steeper home price retreat.

Eric Holder says

So these idiots ventured into flipping too?

Yes.

https://layoffstracker.com/flyhomes-2nd-round-of-layoffs/

FlyHomes, Seattle-based real estate tech startup has undergone 2nd round of layoffs in less than 6 months.

I am seeing builders drop the price per sq. ft. on new homes below that of used home prices, so I asked the home saleswoman with whom I am in dialogue if she would present an offer to the seller's agent below the listing price using this new comp, which is for a new home. Crickets chirping.....

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

I am seeing builders drop the price per sq. ft. on new homes below that of used home prices, so I asked the home saleswoman with whom I am in dialogue if she would present an offer to the seller's agent below the listing price using this new comp, which is for a new home. Crickets chirping.....

Remember to make any real estate offer timeout! Good for the day, or if good for several days with a de-escalation clause.

I have no idea if this is real:

zzyzzx says

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-housing-market-should-brace-for-double-digit-mortgage-rates-in-2023-11666302773

Housing market should brace for mortgage rates hitting 10% in 2023, investment banker says

Even if Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his cohorts stopped hiking policy rates soon, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate still would climb to 10%, according to Christopher Whalen, chairman of Whalen Global Advisors.

That’s because the Fed’s torrid pace of rate increases in 2022 takes time to seep back into mortgage rates, especially with the fed-funds rate already jumping to a 3%-3.25% range in late September, from almost zero a year before.

“Lenders only slowly adjust their rates,” Whalen told MarketWatch. “They are not used to seeing rates moving this ...

History doesn’t support his thesis. If I had to make a bet, I’d bet he’d be wrong with his 10% prediction by Feb 2023 when Fed fund rate hit 4.75-5%.

Stupid people liked Biden double digit inflation. Biden is back with popular demand and his free printing press for his receivers. Price reduction should be short lived unless they went up too high. Good times are around for cash buyers. If anyone living outside crazy urban centers, it should be a good idea to buy to keep your hard earned money value from Biden inflation stealth tax.

cisTits says

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/11/05/the-housing-bubble-popped-and-the-fed-can-let-it-rip/

Wolf is a douche. He deleted comments I made about how inflation was caused by the helicopter money CARES Act, knee-jerk overcompensation for the harmful not based on science lockdowns.

cisTits says

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/11/05/the-housing-bubble-popped-and-the-fed-can-let-it-rip/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kpmg-pandemic-housing-bubble-bursting-223322306.html

The Pandemic Housing Bubble is bursting—U.S. home prices falling 15% looks ‘conservative’

zzyzzx says

The Pandemic Housing Bubble is bursting—U.S. home prices falling 15% looks ‘conservative’

Yup. Prices falling into the down payment range will start the cycle of borrowers handing back the keys as they see their down payment equities dissolving, and their investments showing no signs of increasing to cover their costs.

With my infallibly wrong future crystal ball, I would estimate price drops of 25 percent or more.

Ceffer says

With my infallibly wrong future crystal ball, I would estimate price drops of 25 percent or more.

I'm not a housing bull. But I don't think most of the nation sees that much of a drop. They'll just lower interest rates to keep prices where they're at or slightly lower. If we got supply chains and oil production back to even normal, we'd have a perfectly fine economy.

For whatever reason we have a POTUS that wants high energy prices. And it's not for green energy. If it was, we'd build a huge solar array and wind farm in Utah or Nevada with the billions we've sent to Ukraine. Less reliance on hydro for power, more water for AZ and CA. It's like people don't think... or we all know the real deal. They're all bribed and bought.

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/yty6vn/rental_prices_dropping/

Rental prices dropping

https://www.businessinsider.com/when-will-rents-fall-keep-going-down-housing-outlook-2022-10

Rents are starting to fall across the US — and they're set to drop even more in 2023

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/yty6vn/rental_prices_dropping/

Rental prices dropping

Prices on everything are going to drop when no one can afford it. Housing has interest rates though. They'll just lower them until inflation ticks up again. This is how it's always worked in most of our lifetimes. The housing bust was giving unqualified people loans. Until 12-18 months ago your rate was still in the 4's or less. People can afford their homes. You'd need a job loss recession. That doesn't appear to be happening outside of tech.

You can't find laborers in almost any field in the country. Plumbers, electricians, heavy machine operators, etc. Everyone got a dumb ass arts degree. No one got into the trades. My kids could be millionaires by 25 if I gave them the business acumen and they learned the trades. Young people simply aren't doing it. Sweat some pipes, turn a wrench, glue pipes, it's not fucking complicated. You could be making $100k no problem by 20.

WookieMan says

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/yty6vn/rental_prices_dropping/

Rental prices dropping

Prices on everything are going to drop when no one can afford it. Housing has interest rates though. They'll just lower them until inflation ticks up again. This is how it's always worked in most of our lifetimes. The housing bust was giving unqualified people loans. Until 12-18 months ago your rate was still in the 4's or less. People can afford their homes. You'd need a job loss recession. That doesn't appear to be happening outside of tech.

You can't find laborers in almost any field in the country. Plumbers, electricians, heavy machine operators, etc. Everyone got a dumb ass arts degree. No one got into the trades...

Local Chick-fill-a (or whatever the silly spelling) is advertizing $20.50/hr starting pay.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/yu76vv/blood_in_the_streets_brokersagents_what_is_your/

A group I work with is a medium sized team in a larger metro.

We have seen 30% of our agents leave in the past month. On top of that we laid off 50% of our admins in the past two weeks. Morale is beyond low.

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate mortgage, there is a 10% drop in price.

The Fed Funds rate needs to steady around 4.5% and inflation needs to continue to drop below 6% in 2023, so that interest rates like prime rate and 30 year mortgage rate drop and steady.

I am hoping the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5% to 5.5%. House prices then would need to go down about 20% to 25%. That should be enough to return them near to 2020 levels.

ad says

I am hoping the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5% to 5.5%. House prices then would need to go down about 20% to 25%.

America had a long period of prosperity during the decades where passbook savings were 6% and mortgages were about 8%. Savers were rewarded and a man with a job at a gas station could support a family.

HeadSet says

America had a long period of prosperity during the decades where passbook savings were 6% and mortgages were about 8%. Savers were rewarded and a man with a job at a gas station could support a family.

I understand. However, those were much different times (i.e., 1950s). There was no free trade working against the American working class.

.

ad says

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate mortgage, there is a 10% drop in price.

The Fed Funds rate needs to steady around 4.5% and inflation needs to continue to drop below 6% in 2023, so that interest rates like prime rate and 30 year mortgage rate drop and steady.

I am hoping the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5% to 5.5%. House prices then would need to go down about 20% to 25%. That should be enough to return them near to 2020 levels.

Well, since we started around 3%, and we are at 7%, does that mean prices should be 40% less? I’ve seen 10-15% drop so far. Anything more than 30% drop will bring investment capital sniffing around for deals on long-term investments/rentals.

HeadSet says

ad says

I am hoping the 30 year mortgage rate steadies around 5% to 5.5%. House prices then would need to go down about 20% to 25%.

America had a long period of prosperity during the decades where passbook savings were 6% and mortgages were about 8%. Savers were rewarded and a man with a job at a gas station could support a family.

And I would argue those were much better days for America as a whole.