patrick.net

Blue says

The PE is less than 5 for the most home builders. Interestingly, most stocks are on the raise from 2022-Nov.

Yes, as the E of P/E is based on last 12 months and housing stocks were red hot during that period. Expect P/E to skyrocket for housing stocks if not go negative due to negative earnings (E).

Housing stocks like DR Horton and ETF's like iShares US Home Construction need to return to early 2020 levels or at least be no more than 10% above early 2020 levels based on the next 12 months economic activity and to return to fair value.

There's absolutely no reason why firms have to be in SFBA.

Detroit, Pittsburgh, etc. were where they were due to easy transport of steel, iron, coal, etc. There's no reason for a company whose business is entirely on the internet to be in SFBA.

There's nothing Twitter is doing that can't be done in Hoboken or Tulsa.

"But the people". Elon laid off what, 3/4 of the workforce and Twitter is running faster and with more quality improvements than ever just a few weeks later. Car Manufacturers had no problem leaving for Tennessee or Mexico, so long as they had good transport networks, but it did take a few years. A tech company can move cheaper and faster than that, any schmuck can get on a plane and rent a furnished apartment somewhere until their furniture arrives or they buy new shit.

"Everybody wants a farm in Sicily! It's the Breadbasket of the Med!" - 500BC to ~1850AD. Now they can't give them away. ( Timed right with the implementation of large scale rail traffic then naval bulk transport didn't matter?)

AmericanKulak says

There's absolutely no reason why firms have to be in SFBA.

Detroit, Pittsburgh, etc. were where they were due to easy transport of steel, iron, coal, etc. There's no reason for a company whose business is entirely on the internet to be in SFBA.

There's nothing Twitter is doing that can't be done in Hoboken or Tulsa.

"But the people". Elon laid off what, 3/4 of the workforce and Twitter is running faster and with more quality improvements than ever just a few weeks later. Car Manufacturers had no problem leaving for Tennessee or Mexico, so long as they had good transport networks, but it did take a few years. A tech company can move cheaper and faster than that, any schmuck can get on a plane and rent a furnished apartment somewhere until their furniture arrives or they buy new shit.

"Everybody wants a farm in Sicily! It's the Breadbasket of the Med!" - 500BC to ~1850AD. Now they can't give them away. ( Timed right with the implementation o...

You are right. The talent will exit, the capital will slowly leave. The Bay Area is a network city with staying power for a while.

cisTits says

richwicks says

I'm telling everybody, and I've said it many times before, silly con valley is the next Detroit.

I've been saying that for years as well.

High tech Detroit.

So, you've been wrong for years? How much longer until it becomes Detroit-afied?

I grew up in SJ and it's the only place I've lived.

I head the Detroit Talk over and over:

- Aerospace layoffs when Apollo Space Program and Vietnam Military Spending Winding Down;
- Semiconductor and hard drive fab closures with factories shifting elsewhere;
- Midsize computer companies obsolescence (Amdahl, Sun, etc);
- Dot Com meltdown;

Now they're saying about outfits like Google and social media.

I hope they're right. We need a Detroit-scale drop in the population, congestion and housing costs to make life less miserable here.

Those types of declines would set us back to where we were 3 or so decades ago in terms of congestion and housing costs. Make life more livable here for everyone who's not a Hipster-Tech-Elite.

SiCoValley is where fifth dimensional warfare against the people is being perfected. It is a war industry place. The Globalist psychopaths have their back teeth clamped onto it to produce their unassailable technologic slavery machinery. There are too many assets around here for them to abandon easily. It is identified as a locus of our world miseries along with the Vatican, City of London, Switzerland, and the foreign occupied foreign city state of Washington DC, Mockingbird Hollywood, and to some extent, NYC where the shadow government provides government media theater.

Besides, they have the Garden of Eden wine countries and oceans and nice weather and amenities to swan about in in their Lambos while they contemplate how to crush and dismember the populace and the Republic.

I knew a Swedish billionaire scion in the day who moved here to swan about. He just had to buy a winery and purchase rare books to fit in with all the other rich swans. He died of an overdose in his fifties. Its a place where the rich come to peacock for each other.

Star fleet command of the United Federation of Planets is based out of San Fran so we know that real estate in the Bay Area will only increase in value as the centuries roll on.

Sand Hill Road=DARPA Hill Road Fiat money, BIS money, etc. etc. You really think a bunch of precocious little figurehead bitches placed at the helms invented all this stuff by themselves? They were given the franchises only after they were developed because they are undercover dynastic spawns.

GNL says

cisTits says

richwicks says

I'm telling everybody, and I've said it many times before, silly con valley is the next Detroit.

I've been saying that for years as well.

High tech Detroit.

So, you've been wrong for years? How much longer until it becomes Detroit-afied?

It's going that way now.

This area has been coasting for 20 years. If Biden wasn't installed, this state would be fucked but Biden bailed it out. Fucked either way, with the purchase of Twatter by Musk, it's been exposed that a great deal of "high tech" is nothing more than government bullshit.

Offerpad to get delisted from NYSE?

https://www.inman.com/2022/11/21/nyse-threatens-to-boot-offerpad-over-plummeting-share-price/

Offerpad's stock slipped below $1 per share in late October, positioning the iBuyer to be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange, which could make it more difficult to buy and sell shares

zzyzzx says

Offerpad to get delisted from NYSE?

https://www.inman.com/2022/11/21/nyse-threatens-to-boot-offerpad-over-plummeting-share-price/

Offerpad's stock slipped below $1 per share in late October, positioning the iBuyer to be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange, which could make it more difficult to buy and sell shares

Just do a reverse share split. It’s a non-issue. Not sure why it’s even news.

zzyzzx says

Offerpad to get delisted from NYSE?

IPO for Offerpad back in December 2020 at $10

That would be a short life for it as a public company. No surprise as its a real estate services company so many of them will go bankrupt.

https://golden.com/wiki/Offerpad-8AVJ6G6

.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-increase-after-six-weeks-of-declines-170016590.html

Mortgage rates increase after six weeks of declines

How will the boomer retirement wave permanently increase interest rates? Just asking as I have not pondered it before.

cisTits says

massive retirement of Boomers over the next ten years -- that will permanently raise interest rates all over across the board.

Why would retiring boomers cause higher rates "all across the board"?

Valuation just reached an all time high. Houses in the area don't sell crazy fast anymore, but they still sell fast, usually around listing price. Don't see any housing downturn in rural CA. Plenty of boomfucks with money shopping.

cisTits says

They have inverted demographic pyramids while ours is mostly shaped like a column.

Mother fuckers are trying to turn it into a cone.

cisTits says

GNL says

Why would retiring boomers cause higher rates "all across the board"?

Because retirees go from being net investors to net consumers (but not like their younger years). You are in your peak earning years (50s) you sock away large amounts of money for retirement. Then you pay nothing and start taking out. Plus, we are going to have skilled labor shortages for another 10 years or so.

This is why most of Europe and Asia are demographically fucked. They have inverted demographic pyramids while ours is mostly shaped like a column.

Agreed but until the bumfuck woke millennials are at current boomfuck age there won't be a sharp downturn. Boomers (more so) and Gen X have plenty of money to spend from the fat tech years.

Onvacation says

cisTits says

They have inverted demographic pyramids while ours is mostly shaped like a column.

Mother fuckers are trying to turn it into a cone.

I'd say it's more of a rhombus

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2023/01/05/zillow-seattle-housing-freeze.html

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price in Seattle

zzyzzx says

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2023/01/05/zillow-seattle-housing-freeze.html

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price in Seattle

Seattle is a shit hole in my opinion. Love Washington, not Seattle or Tacoma though. Not sure who would be dumb enough to buy in Seattle after morons took over blocks of the city. Copious amounts of homeless by my standards.

WookieMan says

zzyzzx says

https://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2023/01/05/zillow-seattle-housing-freeze.html

Housing market enters 'deep freeze,' as half of all homes sell below list price in Seattle

Seattle is a shit hole in my opinion. Love Washington, not Seattle or Tacoma though. Not sure who would be dumb enough to buy in Seattle after morons took over blocks of the city. Copious amounts of homeless by my standards.

Not a Mariner fan are you, WookieMan?

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/103rjui/negative_cashflow_properties/

Negative Cashflow Properties

Yet still another indication of a bubble:
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/10434wr/is_there_a_website_to_find_cheap_homes_where_a/

is there a website to find cheap homes where a murder happened?

https://www.businessinsider.com/homeowners-sue-real-estate-brokers-hoping-to-recoup-lost-home-value-2023-1

An increasing number of lawsuits are being filed against real estate agents as home prices continue to fall across the US

https://www.axios.com/2023/01/05/home-sellers-are-basically-throwing-money-at-buyers-right-now

Home sellers are basically throwing money at buyers right now

I used to read the SeattleBubble blog run by a useless eater Redfin apartchik. There was a fellow named Eric who frequently posted about his negtive cashflow properites and how it didn't matter as he was doing fine with capital appreciation which made his investments turn out positive, on paper. Older folks were cautioning him about this strategy, in case prices began to turn down. Wonder how he is doing now?

zzyzzx says

https://www.businessinsider.com/homeowners-sue-real-estate-brokers-hoping-to-recoup-lost-home-value-2023-1

An increasing number of lawsuits are being filed against real estate agents as home prices continue to fall across the US

Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, told Insider in December that half the country could see home-price declines of nearly 10%.

Odd that the main NAR cheerleader would go public about a 10% reduction in prices.

https://notthebee.com/article/the-housing-market-has-flipped-so-radically-that-sellers-are-now-throwing-money-at-buyers

This should be a good time to buy your shack in case if you live away from crazy urban areas while the bubble is blowing up. Especially gov is behind massive printing to keep the inflation in double digits.

Blue says

This should be a good time to buy your shack in case if you live away from crazy urban areas while the bubble is blowing up. Especially gov is behind massive printing to keep the inflation in double digits.

Shouldn't we wait to buy until the 100s of millions die of Suddenly?

GNL says

Shouldn't we wait to buy until the 100s of millions die of Suddenly?

Squatting should be a better option, if the situation is really that bad.