patrick.net

I haven't looked at prices in the Western panhandle area. Pensacola, Navarre, Destin, Fort Walton, etc. Eastern areas like St. George Island are fucking nuts on all levels. Had a chance to buy our vacation rental at $450k that would rent for $2,200/wk. It's now $900k and easily rents for $5k/wk now.

Unique area. They zoned it so there couldn't be condo towers. Not the same, but similar to CA's prop 13. When you create scarcity prices go bonkers. That's one pocket that's going to likely see a downturn at least in FL that I know well. Rural tourist area. A lot of wealthy Floridians and Georgians go there because it's quiet, good beaches, good fishing, oysters, Appalachicola is a quaint little hipster town. Plantation has a landing strip. Really cool island and regret not investing there.

https://fortune.com/2023/03/02/dallas-fed-housing-market-modest-correction-monetary-policy-severe-price-drop/

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-blocked-investor-withdrawals-71-174423166.html

Blackstone blocked investor withdrawals from $71 billion REIT in February

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/03/02/mortgage-rates-back-over-7percent.html
Things getting interesting at 7+% rates. Really a great news if it can sustain the rate for long. But again free printing press might not give a break which makes cash is worth less.

https://padailypost.com/ but i don't see it on their site, so just took some photos:

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-home-prices-could-plunge-risk-deep-housing-slide-fed-economist-warns

US home prices could plunge 20% amid risk of 'deep' housing slide, Fed economist warns

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-sale-prices-fall-first-time/

Housing Market Update: Home Prices Fall Annually For First Time In A Decade As Mortgage Rates Pass 7%

Been looking to buy 300 shares in Invitation Homes and sell weekly covered calls for at least 1 year.

Invitation Homes buys residential real estate and then rents them. Another residential rental company of my interest that offers rentals (but has different business model) is Avalon Bay.

I think both are good long term holdings for real estate.

.

Nothing that a few more millions of illegals can't cure.

WookieMan says

Appalachicola is a quaint little hipster town.

Prices are not too bad in this town. What do you think about Tallahassee?

gabbar says

What do you think about Tallahassee?

Not close enough to the beach.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

Appalachicola is a quaint little hipster town.

Prices are not too bad in this town. What do you think about Tallahassee?

The problem with the Panhandle and Northern FL is you're going to run into your stereotypical white trash and southern blacks. So there will be cheap prices for housing inland. @ad could probably speak better to it than I can. My mom unloaded all her property down there over the last 3 years. So I have no stake or interest in knowing prices down there anymore. But you can pick up solid house 30-40 minutes from the beach for $250k, from Pensacola to Tallahassee.

Only been to Tallahassee twice. Didn't like the vibe. Spending 3 days in the Jacksonville area in a couple weeks. I've heard negative things. But I hear that about everywhere. I wouldn't make Tallahassee a destination though. Unless your kid wants to go to FSU. I'm sure outlying suburbs are nice, but Tallahassee proper was college town ghetto from my experience. Probably fun if you want to party and fool around with young college chicks. I would, just don't want to live there and I'm married. lol.

I think I just typed Tallahassee more times in this comment than my entire life...

WookieMan says

The problem with the Panhandle and Northern FL is you're going to run into your stereotypical white trash

What's wrong with that ? It keeps away the Democrat doucebags from the north and California.

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WookieMan says

But you can pick up solid house 30-40 minutes from the beach for $250k, from Pensacola to Tallahassee.

True that. I like all those charming towns like Chipley, Cottondale, Crestview, Florala, Ponce De Leon, etc.

Paradise is living in Florida and only being within a 1 hour drive of Alabama. Roll Tide.

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ad says

What's wrong with that ? It keeps away the Democrat doucebags from the north and California.

I live in that in IL. Around me is mostly white trash but most our friends are white collar. So not complaining. Uppity people as you say don't like that element. I love it. Real people and fun as long as they control their alcohol consumption and drug usage. I love the Panhandle. Have probably spent 2 years of my life there from Pensacola to St. George island.

My parents had multiple properties in Milton and Navarre. We did have a low rise 2/2 condo there for maybe 10 years at Navarre beach. Had some of the most ridiculous times there from 16-25. Speeding we could get from Chicago land down there in 12 hours. We got kids now and between pissing it's now turned into a 16-18 hour journey where we would usually stop in Trashville, TN.

We fly into PNS now. Southwest flies to Destin haven't tried PCB either. I love St. George but prices for rentals have gotten obscene.

WookieMan says

Only been to Tallahassee twice. Didn't like the vibe. Spending 3 days in the Jacksonville area in a couple weeks. I've heard negative things. But I hear that about everywhere. I wouldn't make Tallahassee a destination though. Unless your kid wants to go to FSU. I'm sure outlying suburbs are nice, but Tallahassee proper was college town ghetto from my experience. Probably fun if you want to party and fool around with young college chicks. I would, just don't want to live there and I'm married. lol.

All the Central Florida towns are full of the high crime element... Ocala, Talahasee, Gainesville. Jax as well.

AmericanKulak says

All the Central Florida towns are full of the high crime element... Ocala, Talahasee, Gainesville. Jax as well.

hood rat environment and culture

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Where is Logan's optimism?

porkchopexpress says

Where is Logan's optimism?

He seemed a little daft to me at the time, was Logan right about EVERYTHING in the last few years?
I know my pessimistic nature has not served me well.
I am getting ready to buy a neighboring property, my first purchase in 10 years, that is likely a negative indicator for the market...

WookieMan says

West coast and hipster cities are going to eat shit.

There's been lots of reasons for the too-high house prices in the SF Bay Area, including very low turnover.
(Low turnover is partly due to Proposition 13 property tax law).

The too high prices to buy made our region, as Wookie Man put it, eating sht for years. It's caused millennials and others to have to double-triple up with roommates, it's the main reason about half the shit boxes on my street have folks living (illegally) in garages and sheds, all working adults with cars, making parking impossible here. It's the reason the local government looks the other way on the illegal living arrangements. It's the main reason so many local government employees and other service workers reside Super Commute distance from their jobs, in outlying areas like Hollister, Watsonville, the Central Valley. Now it's become a reason for Flight Of Large Employers and young families from the region. In short, the Too-High Prices, which due to low turnover a very tiny minority of homeowners have cost sunken into, have made life miserable for here, - as Wookie Man said, our region eating sht. The huge majority of homeowners in the region only had imaginary "equity". If prices drop by half, they won't have lost a thing that they never really had anyway.

A collapse in the prices will be a welcome relief, will make life more livable here, less of eating sh*t kind of life. More affordability will be good for nearly everyone in the region, including ®ealors.

Strange, I already know a couple of people who bought houses for their kids in Texas. Couldn't afford in Coastal Insane LibbyFuck Privilege Land, so kids went to Texas for education or jobs or to raise families, and parents had enough spare change to buy them houses.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luxury-housing-market-sees-steep-deceleration-charts-112538320.html

Luxury housing market sees 'steep' deceleration

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luxury-housing-market-sees-steep-deceleration-charts-112538320.html

Luxury housing market sees 'steep' deceleration

Noooooooo!

RWSGFY says

Luxury housing market sees 'steep' deceleration

Deceleration? As in (v – u)/t?

I want to see some actual freefall, as in 9.8m/s²

Realtor.com just released February 2023 Inventory figures for the US Housing Market. And on initial inspection they're...confusing. Because even though leading indicators of buyer demand collapsed in February, home sales actually went up. Which caused inventory to go down

Specifically: the number of Active Listings on the market declined to 578k homes. This inventory level is down 23% from Oct 2022. And it's down 38% from pre-pandemic levels. Meaning that inventory is still "low" at the national level..

This from the same article...

On the positive side - inventory is up year-over-year. And up significantly. Active Listings are 68% higher than they were in February 2022. Indicating that homebuyers are in a much better position heading into the spring selling season in 2023.

One of the most retarded articles I actually finished reading in a long time on real estate before I realized they have no clue what the fuck they're talking about.

I'll say it the 100th time. People are leaving cities after covid and millennials are having families. We're witnessing population movement to cheaper, less crowded areas. This is not a crash. 90% of people are in sub 5% mortgages and/or paid off. Solid financial standing. This is a fuck democrat movement and natural movement with the largest current generation starting families. It's not rocket science.

An article that says inventory is down and then up in the next paragraph should be immediately discarded. Cherry picking data to make a point is bull shit. I also wouldn't take advice from the meth head on breaking bad....

I'm not a bull, but this article is pure nonsense.

https://notthebee.com/article/redfin-says-only-21-of-us-homes-are-within-financial-reach-for-the-average-american

Redfin says only 21% of U.S. homes are within financial reach for the average American, the lowest percentage in history

cisTits says

^^^ example of your typical gaslighting.

The fuck??? Jesus Christ. Check out the definition of gaslighting dude. I'm stating facts. California is late to the exodus game. That is fact. I've experienced it. YES for fucks sake prices will drop. They did here in IL. They're now still rising outside of Chicago.

It was a shit article. The fact you have to point out the initial contradiction like it's ok is hysterical and try to justify that you think it wasn't a shit article is telling. Between my family and work I've dealt with probably $500M in real estate transfers. You don't have to agree, but I know what I'm talking about.

You've cited interest rates rising. Great. So people don't want to buy or move. Inventory drops and the few that want to buy suck it up and stabilize prices. Still qualified borrowers, not like 2005. The exodus from high prices, BLM, defund the police locations will make it "look" like prices are coming down. And they are. Just in places no one want to live anymore and raise a family. The prices in the new location, that's cheaper, rise. Median national prices is a shit metric.

Feel like I'm beating a dead horse here. It's been dead for a while and so has your take on the topic...

The interest rates are just getting normal. I'd say the average in the past 50 years was around 7-8% for a 30 year. They were in the double digits in the 1980s.

1974: 9%
1984: 13%
1994: 8%
2004: 5%
2014: 4%

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US


Awww, po lil' bankies are gonna hafta appeal to savers again, waaaaah, and offer attractive interest rates to long term depositors, waaaah. Easy Bottomless Money Punch Bowl gone, boo hoo. Venture Capital and Blackrock cant use the Fed's money printer to snatch up housing, awww.

Sorry flippers!



I love having CASH on the sidelines, leveraged fucks!!!

cisTits says

Has nothing to do with what was in the article, which talks about America as a whole.

You can't talk about "America as a whole" lol. It was a shit article. Just face it. Clearly you seem to be a bear. That's fine. I'm not a bull. I'm explaining the market as a non-retard.

Loans are solid. Inventory is low. The places that drop the most are where the cops don't want to be there, BLM burned them and millennials are having kids and moving out. I'm stating facts. It's demographics and local policy. It's not a national wave. You tell me to read, but you don't. I'm explaining it clear as can be.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-sentiment-nearing-time-190516378.html

Housing market sentiment is nearing all-time lows as Americans fret over mortgage rates and employment outlook

Got a question. Are loans taken out by businesses like Dick's Sporting Goods, WalMart, Kohls's, Macy's, McDonald's..... or in general businesses/corporations fixed rates loans (like mortgages) or do they adjust as the rate of interest increases?

cisTits says

WookieMan says

You can't talk about "America as a whole" lol

Wow. You now try to impose an entirely made-up reality now.

Great point. You have zero clue of market dynamics. You go into arguing about arguing. I'm not wasting time today, but I'll show you plenty of markets where prices are rising for the foreseeable future. Your perspective is jaded, likely because you're in CA. That's fine. The CA market will likely eat shit. Much of the mountain West will too. Austin, Nashville, NYC are all shit places to be currently.

I'm not a bull. You're being intentionally obtuse. Why would I give a shit if the Bay area drops 20-30%? I don't. No one does unless you own there. All the layoffs, they just move to lower COLA's and have cheaper houses, albeit likely lower pay. You're focused on interest rates. This is not a housing crash BESIDES cities. It brings down the national median for over priced condos and shitty houses. I literally don't know how this isn't understood.

You give no counter argument about how I'm wrong, you just argue that I'm arguing wrong. Come at me with actual data that fly over country is eating shit like CA? It's not and you know it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e16fefe0-6a3e-341b-9db7-ed05a4e48ba5/%E2%80%98bay-area-seattle-and-new.html

Bay Area, Seattle and New York are losing million-dollar homes fastest. Big cities see biggest drop in home prices.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/11m35lr/its_50_days_since_my_house_has_been_on_the_market/

It's ~50 days since my house has been on the market. Should I lower the price for the 2nd time?

cisTits says

Sez the guy who just makes shit up all along, takes shit out of context when said context doesn't fly with said gaslighting of his shit, etc.

No points proven or discussed. Gaslighting. I'm sure strawman is next. Keep it coming. I thought Iwog was bad... and that's saying a lot. Tell me one factual point I'm wrong on? Just one. I'm literally agreeing with you but you don't understand. That's fine. Doesn't move me. Tell me how I'm wrong? Skip gaslighting, you sound like a gas bag.

cisTits says

WookieMan says

No points proven or discussed. Gaslighting. I'm sure strawman is next. Keep it coming. I thought Iwog was bad... and that's saying a lot.

You are talking to yourself, pal.

Crickets.......... Figured.

zzyzzx says

Bay Area, Seattle and New York are losing million-dollar homes fastest. Big cities see biggest drop in home prices.

Amazon is closing its physical stores in San Francisco. Amazon also halted construction of its headquarters building in northern Virginia. Big tech is cutting back expenses.

Note the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank's stock price.

Tomorrow the weekly job report is to be released. Also 14 March 2023 is the release of the February 2023 inflation or CPI report.

Will be interesting to see as I am noticing price drops not only for apartments such as 1 month free for 13 month lease (and rental prices have remained constant for last 12 months), but also I notice a lot of sales such as Tucktec is offering major discounts with its kayaks right before spring season.

,