patrick.net

ad says

What's wrong with that ? It keeps away the Democrat doucebags from the north and California.

I live in that in IL. Around me is mostly white trash but most our friends are white collar. So not complaining. Uppity people as you say don't like that element. I love it. Real people and fun as long as they control their alcohol consumption and drug usage. I love the Panhandle. Have probably spent 2 years of my life there from Pensacola to St. George island.

My parents had multiple properties in Milton and Navarre. We did have a low rise 2/2 condo there for maybe 10 years at Navarre beach. Had some of the most ridiculous times there from 16-25. Speeding we could get from Chicago land down there in 12 hours. We got kids now and between pissing it's now turned into a 16-18 hour journey where we would usually stop in Trashville, TN.

We fly into PNS now. Southwest flies to Destin haven't tried PCB either. I love St. George but prices for rentals have gotten obscene.

WookieMan says

Only been to Tallahassee twice. Didn't like the vibe. Spending 3 days in the Jacksonville area in a couple weeks. I've heard negative things. But I hear that about everywhere. I wouldn't make Tallahassee a destination though. Unless your kid wants to go to FSU. I'm sure outlying suburbs are nice, but Tallahassee proper was college town ghetto from my experience. Probably fun if you want to party and fool around with young college chicks. I would, just don't want to live there and I'm married. lol.

All the Central Florida towns are full of the high crime element... Ocala, Talahasee, Gainesville. Jax as well.

AmericanKulak says

All the Central Florida towns are full of the high crime element... Ocala, Talahasee, Gainesville. Jax as well.

hood rat environment and culture

.

Where is Logan's optimism?

porkchopexpress says

Where is Logan's optimism?

He seemed a little daft to me at the time, was Logan right about EVERYTHING in the last few years?
I know my pessimistic nature has not served me well.
I am getting ready to buy a neighboring property, my first purchase in 10 years, that is likely a negative indicator for the market...

WookieMan says

West coast and hipster cities are going to eat shit.

There's been lots of reasons for the too-high house prices in the SF Bay Area, including very low turnover.
(Low turnover is partly due to Proposition 13 property tax law).

The too high prices to buy made our region, as Wookie Man put it, eating sht for years. It's caused millennials and others to have to double-triple up with roommates, it's the main reason about half the shit boxes on my street have folks living (illegally) in garages and sheds, all working adults with cars, making parking impossible here. It's the reason the local government looks the other way on the illegal living arrangements. It's the main reason so many local government employees and other service workers reside Super Commute distance from their jobs, in outlying areas like Hollister, Watsonville, the Central Valley. Now it's become a reason for Flight Of Large Employers and young families from the region. In short, the Too-High Prices, which due to low turnover a very tiny minority of homeowners have cost sunken into, have made life miserable for here, - as Wookie Man said, our region eating sht. The huge majority of homeowners in the region only had imaginary "equity". If prices drop by half, they won't have lost a thing that they never really had anyway.

A collapse in the prices will be a welcome relief, will make life more livable here, less of eating sh*t kind of life. More affordability will be good for nearly everyone in the region, including ®ealors.

Strange, I already know a couple of people who bought houses for their kids in Texas. Couldn't afford in Coastal Insane LibbyFuck Privilege Land, so kids went to Texas for education or jobs or to raise families, and parents had enough spare change to buy them houses.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luxury-housing-market-sees-steep-deceleration-charts-112538320.html

Luxury housing market sees 'steep' deceleration

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/luxury-housing-market-sees-steep-deceleration-charts-112538320.html

Luxury housing market sees 'steep' deceleration

Noooooooo!

RWSGFY says

Luxury housing market sees 'steep' deceleration

Deceleration? As in (v – u)/t?

I want to see some actual freefall, as in 9.8m/s²

Realtor.com just released February 2023 Inventory figures for the US Housing Market. And on initial inspection they're...confusing. Because even though leading indicators of buyer demand collapsed in February, home sales actually went up. Which caused inventory to go down

Specifically: the number of Active Listings on the market declined to 578k homes. This inventory level is down 23% from Oct 2022. And it's down 38% from pre-pandemic levels. Meaning that inventory is still "low" at the national level..

This from the same article...

On the positive side - inventory is up year-over-year. And up significantly. Active Listings are 68% higher than they were in February 2022. Indicating that homebuyers are in a much better position heading into the spring selling season in 2023.

One of the most retarded articles I actually finished reading in a long time on real estate before I realized they have no clue what the fuck they're talking about.

I'll say it the 100th time. People are leaving cities after covid and millennials are having families. We're witnessing population movement to cheaper, less crowded areas. This is not a crash. 90% of people are in sub 5% mortgages and/or paid off. Solid financial standing. This is a fuck democrat movement and natural movement with the largest current generation starting families. It's not rocket science.

An article that says inventory is down and then up in the next paragraph should be immediately discarded. Cherry picking data to make a point is bull shit. I also wouldn't take advice from the meth head on breaking bad....

I'm not a bull, but this article is pure nonsense.

https://notthebee.com/article/redfin-says-only-21-of-us-homes-are-within-financial-reach-for-the-average-american

Redfin says only 21% of U.S. homes are within financial reach for the average American, the lowest percentage in history

cisTits says

^^^ example of your typical gaslighting.

The fuck??? Jesus Christ. Check out the definition of gaslighting dude. I'm stating facts. California is late to the exodus game. That is fact. I've experienced it. YES for fucks sake prices will drop. They did here in IL. They're now still rising outside of Chicago.

It was a shit article. The fact you have to point out the initial contradiction like it's ok is hysterical and try to justify that you think it wasn't a shit article is telling. Between my family and work I've dealt with probably $500M in real estate transfers. You don't have to agree, but I know what I'm talking about.

You've cited interest rates rising. Great. So people don't want to buy or move. Inventory drops and the few that want to buy suck it up and stabilize prices. Still qualified borrowers, not like 2005. The exodus from high prices, BLM, defund the police locations will make it "look" like prices are coming down. And they are. Just in places no one want to live anymore and raise a family. The prices in the new location, that's cheaper, rise. Median national prices is a shit metric.

Feel like I'm beating a dead horse here. It's been dead for a while and so has your take on the topic...

The interest rates are just getting normal. I'd say the average in the past 50 years was around 7-8% for a 30 year. They were in the double digits in the 1980s.

1974: 9%
1984: 13%
1994: 8%
2004: 5%
2014: 4%

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US


Awww, po lil' bankies are gonna hafta appeal to savers again, waaaaah, and offer attractive interest rates to long term depositors, waaaah. Easy Bottomless Money Punch Bowl gone, boo hoo. Venture Capital and Blackrock cant use the Fed's money printer to snatch up housing, awww.

Sorry flippers!



I love having CASH on the sidelines, leveraged fucks!!!

cisTits says

Has nothing to do with what was in the article, which talks about America as a whole.

You can't talk about "America as a whole" lol. It was a shit article. Just face it. Clearly you seem to be a bear. That's fine. I'm not a bull. I'm explaining the market as a non-retard.

Loans are solid. Inventory is low. The places that drop the most are where the cops don't want to be there, BLM burned them and millennials are having kids and moving out. I'm stating facts. It's demographics and local policy. It's not a national wave. You tell me to read, but you don't. I'm explaining it clear as can be.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-sentiment-nearing-time-190516378.html

Housing market sentiment is nearing all-time lows as Americans fret over mortgage rates and employment outlook

Got a question. Are loans taken out by businesses like Dick's Sporting Goods, WalMart, Kohls's, Macy's, McDonald's..... or in general businesses/corporations fixed rates loans (like mortgages) or do they adjust as the rate of interest increases?

cisTits says

WookieMan says

You can't talk about "America as a whole" lol

Wow. You now try to impose an entirely made-up reality now.

Great point. You have zero clue of market dynamics. You go into arguing about arguing. I'm not wasting time today, but I'll show you plenty of markets where prices are rising for the foreseeable future. Your perspective is jaded, likely because you're in CA. That's fine. The CA market will likely eat shit. Much of the mountain West will too. Austin, Nashville, NYC are all shit places to be currently.

I'm not a bull. You're being intentionally obtuse. Why would I give a shit if the Bay area drops 20-30%? I don't. No one does unless you own there. All the layoffs, they just move to lower COLA's and have cheaper houses, albeit likely lower pay. You're focused on interest rates. This is not a housing crash BESIDES cities. It brings down the national median for over priced condos and shitty houses. I literally don't know how this isn't understood.

You give no counter argument about how I'm wrong, you just argue that I'm arguing wrong. Come at me with actual data that fly over country is eating shit like CA? It's not and you know it.

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e16fefe0-6a3e-341b-9db7-ed05a4e48ba5/%E2%80%98bay-area-seattle-and-new.html

Bay Area, Seattle and New York are losing million-dollar homes fastest. Big cities see biggest drop in home prices.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/11m35lr/its_50_days_since_my_house_has_been_on_the_market/

It's ~50 days since my house has been on the market. Should I lower the price for the 2nd time?

cisTits says

Sez the guy who just makes shit up all along, takes shit out of context when said context doesn't fly with said gaslighting of his shit, etc.

No points proven or discussed. Gaslighting. I'm sure strawman is next. Keep it coming. I thought Iwog was bad... and that's saying a lot. Tell me one factual point I'm wrong on? Just one. I'm literally agreeing with you but you don't understand. That's fine. Doesn't move me. Tell me how I'm wrong? Skip gaslighting, you sound like a gas bag.

cisTits says

WookieMan says

No points proven or discussed. Gaslighting. I'm sure strawman is next. Keep it coming. I thought Iwog was bad... and that's saying a lot.

You are talking to yourself, pal.

Crickets.......... Figured.

zzyzzx says

Bay Area, Seattle and New York are losing million-dollar homes fastest. Big cities see biggest drop in home prices.

Amazon is closing its physical stores in San Francisco. Amazon also halted construction of its headquarters building in northern Virginia. Big tech is cutting back expenses.

Note the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank's stock price.

Tomorrow the weekly job report is to be released. Also 14 March 2023 is the release of the February 2023 inflation or CPI report.

Will be interesting to see as I am noticing price drops not only for apartments such as 1 month free for 13 month lease (and rental prices have remained constant for last 12 months), but also I notice a lot of sales such as Tucktec is offering major discounts with its kayaks right before spring season.

,

WookieMan says

cisTits says

WookieMan says

No points proven or discussed. Gaslighting. I'm sure strawman is next. Keep it coming. I thought Iwog was bad... and that's saying a lot.

You are talking to yourself, pal.

Crickets.......... Figured.

Gentlemen, please let it go. Let's move on. Today's Friday, enjoy your weekend.

gabbar says

Gentlemen, please let it go. Let's move on. Today's Friday, enjoy your weekend.

I tend to agree, but when you've done it professionally for 15 years and made a good living off it I think my analysis of things is better than clickbait real estate articles. Or no rebuttal as to why I'm wrong. I explain why prices are dropping in CERTAIN areas and I've heard of no explanation about my logic being WRONG. Just character attacks.

Taking one region, CA and extrapolating that across the country makes no sense. I was a real estate broker before and during the last bust. It's like telling someone getting shot at in Afghanistan/Iraq that they have no clue about war for example. Sorry it's frustrating and devolves into Iwog type argument style of covering tracks and not having a thought.

CA is having an exodus of people. So are cities because of policy and crime. 1year of high interest rates on qualified borrows does not result in a housing crash. The national median goes down if 200k people move out of CA to a substantially lower COLA. That doesn't mean Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa are declining. In many cases they're still going up. But the price drops in CA seem dire and drag down the national median housing price.

95% of buyers are locked in at rates under 5% or are completely paid off. They're not moving into new or existing houses because of the high interest rates. That means low inventory and less to choose from so people will pay more where there's less inventory. CA is going to get bashed for sure. But this isn't a housing bust for the majority that are fine staying put.

This is my frustration on this thread. No counter argument has been presented at all. It's because it's logical and what is literally happening in the real world. Nah, all you get is high interest rates = a housing bust.... That's not an answer or argument. Just start a thread on the CA housing bust, because it's simply not happening everywhere.

WookieMan says

Just start a thread on the CA housing bust

Ahem, that's what ad did when he started this thread:

ad says

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop.

Chill out.

ad says

housing prices peak 2

That's the OP thread title. Nothing to do with California.

Selling a house in California does not mean the thread is based on California, just a link. Just someone making a prediction and sold a home in California. Ad is from the panhandle of FL. I'm from IL. I could predict a housing collapse and say I sold my house in the Panhandle of FL for example, yet I'm in IL.

It was never a CA housing thread. It was housing prices are peaking thread, that then got dragged into the California mud because this is a California centric site. I'm not wrong in anything I state. This is becoming a joke at this point. I even addressed the California market with logical and valid thoughts. I'm not sure the pushback. I've said multiple times I'm not a bull. Projecting what is going on in CA though to the rest of the country as has been done isn't logical and isn't happening. High interest rates only lower inventory as most people since 2010 are locked into sub 5% rates and/or paid off and are qualified to carry the debt. Prove me wrong. I've asked multiple times and no one has answered.

.

We can at least agree California is a white liberal shithole state. Its an anomaly just like its uppity governor Birdbrain Newsom.

It is more volatile and extreme in California given the economic conditions such as salaries within the San Fran Bay Area and how deep-pocketed white liberals will sell there and move to cheaper states like Idaho, Arizona, Nevada, and Texas (and hopefully not the Florida panhandle).

When I saw Patrick on 20/20 television show about 15 years ago, he did not state he was commenting only on California real estate.

Patrick's book about debt equals slavery is not only about California, alias Mexifornia.

.

B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says

Just start a thread on the CA housing bust

Ahem, that's what ad did when he started this thread:

Wookie, read the Yahoo article as Kiesel was commenting about the housing market in the USA, not just Mexifornia.

The Yahoo article links to the below website, and Kiesel comments on the USA housing market.
https://www.ocregister.com/2022/04/28/pimco-bond-manager-who-called-housings-top-and-bottom-says-sell-now/

.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/11n6qtn/seller_entitlement_syndrome/

Seller Entitlement Syndrome

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/11n6qtn/seller_entitlement_syndrome/

Seller Entitlement Syndrome

It usually goes like this:

Seller hires agent

Seller doesn't list at suggested sales price and wants it listed 50k-100k over market and will not negotiate backwards from the crazy high number. Seller cites 1 irrelevant comp as the basis for the high price and ignores all other market data and market factors.

No buyer action on grossly overpriced listing

Seller blames agent for lack of interest

Seller won't lower the price enough to attract a buyer ($1-$1000 price reduction on a 750k house that is actually worth 625k)

Agent does as they're told and just keeps the price where it is

Listing goes stale and showings are nonexistent

Seller cancels the listing and fires agent for not getting the job done

Seller hires new agent and re-lists at an almost identical bad price as before

Cycle starts fresh and seller blames everyone else for why their house won't sell

Patrick says

Seller doesn't list at suggested sales price and wants it listed 50k-100k over market and will not negotiate backwards from the crazy high number

Around here, an Agent will not take such a listing. They may take a seller who is only a few thousand above market, knowing they can lower the price later.

HeadSet says

Patrick says

Seller doesn't list at suggested sales price and wants it listed 50k-100k over market and will not negotiate backwards from the crazy high number

Around here, an Agent will not take such a listing. They may take a seller who is only a few thousand above market, knowing they can lower the price later.

Yup. That's generally how it works. Only desperate agents take those listing and hold open houses to get buyer leads. The drawback is in a neighborhood with tight community, you'll get a reputation as not being able to sell houses. It's a risky strategy. Opening doors for buyers to show them a house is agony. While the listing agent is sitting at home with a beer. Listing are gold if you can get the seller to price it reasonably.

WookieMan says

HeadSet says

Patrick says

Seller doesn't list at suggested sales price and wants it listed 50k-100k over market and will not negotiate backwards from the crazy high number

Around here, an Agent will not take such a listing. They may take a seller who is only a few thousand above market, knowing they can lower the price later.

Yup. That's generally how it works. Only desperate agents take those listing and hold open houses to get buyer leads. The drawback is in a neighborhood with tight community, you'll get a reputation as not being able to sell houses. It's a risky strategy. Opening doors for buyers to show them a house is agony. While the listing agent is sitting at home with a beer. Listing are gold if you can get the seller to price it reasonably.

@WookieMan,

You may sound rough around the edges to some, but you’re speaking facts from your experience. I want to say thanks. We only have one life to live. Enjoy life and live happy. Do what we can control and let what we can’t control go.

We all make bets and live with the consequences. Interestingly, the people, who tend to complain, are the ones who don’t make bets. Have a great weekend.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/11qep42/overpaid_and_having_serious_regrets_1_full_year_in/

Overpaid and having serious regrets, 1 full year in

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-costs-rent-inflation-february-2023-143233667.html

Housing costs 'dominant factor' in Feb. inflation data as rents show signs of cooling

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-costs-rent-inflation-february-2023-143233667.html

Housing costs 'dominant factor' in Feb. inflation data as rents show signs of cooling

Yup, rents have peaked….for now. With all the tech layoffs, hopefully rents will cool down in the Bay Area.