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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   462,761 views  4,804 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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1838   HeadSet   2023 Mar 6, 12:43pm  

RWSGFY says

Luxury housing market sees 'steep' deceleration

Deceleration? As in (v – u)/t?

I want to see some actual freefall, as in 9.8m/s²
1839   WookieMan   2023 Mar 6, 3:28pm  

Realtor.com just released February 2023 Inventory figures for the US Housing Market. And on initial inspection they're...confusing. Because even though leading indicators of buyer demand collapsed in February, home sales actually went up. Which caused inventory to go down

Specifically: the number of Active Listings on the market declined to 578k homes. This inventory level is down 23% from Oct 2022. And it's down 38% from pre-pandemic levels. Meaning that inventory is still "low" at the national level..


This from the same article...

On the positive side - inventory is up year-over-year. And up significantly. Active Listings are 68% higher than they were in February 2022. Indicating that homebuyers are in a much better position heading into the spring selling season in 2023.


One of the most retarded articles I actually finished reading in a long time on real estate before I realized they have no clue what the fuck they're talking about.

I'll say it the 100th time. People are leaving cities after covid and millennials are having families. We're witnessing population movement to cheaper, less crowded areas. This is not a crash. 90% of people are in sub 5% mortgages and/or paid off. Solid financial standing. This is a fuck democrat movement and natural movement with the largest current generation starting families. It's not rocket science.

An article that says inventory is down and then up in the next paragraph should be immediately discarded. Cherry picking data to make a point is bull shit. I also wouldn't take advice from the meth head on breaking bad....

I'm not a bull, but this article is pure nonsense.
1840   Patrick   2023 Mar 7, 8:50pm  

https://notthebee.com/article/redfin-says-only-21-of-us-homes-are-within-financial-reach-for-the-average-american


Redfin says only 21% of U.S. homes are within financial reach for the average American, the lowest percentage in history
1842   WookieMan   2023 Mar 8, 9:56pm  

cisTits says

^^^ example of your typical gaslighting.

The fuck??? Jesus Christ. Check out the definition of gaslighting dude. I'm stating facts. California is late to the exodus game. That is fact. I've experienced it. YES for fucks sake prices will drop. They did here in IL. They're now still rising outside of Chicago.

It was a shit article. The fact you have to point out the initial contradiction like it's ok is hysterical and try to justify that you think it wasn't a shit article is telling. Between my family and work I've dealt with probably $500M in real estate transfers. You don't have to agree, but I know what I'm talking about.

You've cited interest rates rising. Great. So people don't want to buy or move. Inventory drops and the few that want to buy suck it up and stabilize prices. Still qualified borrowers, not like 2005. The exodus from high prices, BLM, defund the police locations will make it "look" like prices are coming down. And they are. Just in places no one want to live anymore and raise a family. The prices in the new location, that's cheaper, rise. Median national prices is a shit metric.

Feel like I'm beating a dead horse here. It's been dead for a while and so has your take on the topic...
1843   AmericanKulak   2023 Mar 8, 10:12pm  

The interest rates are just getting normal. I'd say the average in the past 50 years was around 7-8% for a 30 year. They were in the double digits in the 1980s.

1974: 9%
1984: 13%
1994: 8%
2004: 5%
2014: 4%

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US


Awww, po lil' bankies are gonna hafta appeal to savers again, waaaaah, and offer attractive interest rates to long term depositors, waaaah. Easy Bottomless Money Punch Bowl gone, boo hoo. Venture Capital and Blackrock cant use the Fed's money printer to snatch up housing, awww.

Sorry flippers!



I love having CASH on the sidelines, leveraged fucks!!!
1844   WookieMan   2023 Mar 8, 10:34pm  

cisTits says

Has nothing to do with what was in the article, which talks about America as a whole.

You can't talk about "America as a whole" lol. It was a shit article. Just face it. Clearly you seem to be a bear. That's fine. I'm not a bull. I'm explaining the market as a non-retard.

Loans are solid. Inventory is low. The places that drop the most are where the cops don't want to be there, BLM burned them and millennials are having kids and moving out. I'm stating facts. It's demographics and local policy. It's not a national wave. You tell me to read, but you don't. I'm explaining it clear as can be.
1846   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 9, 7:53am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-sentiment-nearing-time-190516378.html

Housing market sentiment is nearing all-time lows as Americans fret over mortgage rates and employment outlook
1847   gabbar   2023 Mar 9, 8:21am  

Got a question. Are loans taken out by businesses like Dick's Sporting Goods, WalMart, Kohls's, Macy's, McDonald's..... or in general businesses/corporations fixed rates loans (like mortgages) or do they adjust as the rate of interest increases?
1849   WookieMan   2023 Mar 9, 9:15am  

cisTits says

WookieMan says


You can't talk about "America as a whole" lol


Wow. You now try to impose an entirely made-up reality now.

Great point. You have zero clue of market dynamics. You go into arguing about arguing. I'm not wasting time today, but I'll show you plenty of markets where prices are rising for the foreseeable future. Your perspective is jaded, likely because you're in CA. That's fine. The CA market will likely eat shit. Much of the mountain West will too. Austin, Nashville, NYC are all shit places to be currently.

I'm not a bull. You're being intentionally obtuse. Why would I give a shit if the Bay area drops 20-30%? I don't. No one does unless you own there. All the layoffs, they just move to lower COLA's and have cheaper houses, albeit likely lower pay. You're focused on interest rates. This is not a housing crash BESIDES cities. It brings down the national median for over priced condos and shitty houses. I literally don't know how this isn't understood.

You give no counter argument about how I'm wrong, you just argue that I'm arguing wrong. Come at me with actual data that fly over country is eating shit like CA? It's not and you know it.
1850   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 9, 9:33am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/e16fefe0-6a3e-341b-9db7-ed05a4e48ba5/%E2%80%98bay-area-seattle-and-new.html

Bay Area, Seattle and New York are losing million-dollar homes fastest. Big cities see biggest drop in home prices.
1851   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 9, 10:16am  

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/11m35lr/its_50_days_since_my_house_has_been_on_the_market/

It's ~50 days since my house has been on the market. Should I lower the price for the 2nd time?
1852   WookieMan   2023 Mar 9, 3:49pm  

cisTits says

Sez the guy who just makes shit up all along, takes shit out of context when said context doesn't fly with said gaslighting of his shit, etc.

No points proven or discussed. Gaslighting. I'm sure strawman is next. Keep it coming. I thought Iwog was bad... and that's saying a lot. Tell me one factual point I'm wrong on? Just one. I'm literally agreeing with you but you don't understand. That's fine. Doesn't move me. Tell me how I'm wrong? Skip gaslighting, you sound like a gas bag.
1853   WookieMan   2023 Mar 9, 4:22pm  

cisTits says

WookieMan says


No points proven or discussed. Gaslighting. I'm sure strawman is next. Keep it coming. I thought Iwog was bad... and that's saying a lot.


You are talking to yourself, pal.

Crickets.......... Figured.
1854   AD   2023 Mar 9, 10:41pm  

zzyzzx says


Bay Area, Seattle and New York are losing million-dollar homes fastest. Big cities see biggest drop in home prices.


Amazon is closing its physical stores in San Francisco. Amazon also halted construction of its headquarters building in northern Virginia. Big tech is cutting back expenses.

Note the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank's stock price.

Tomorrow the weekly job report is to be released. Also 14 March 2023 is the release of the February 2023 inflation or CPI report.

Will be interesting to see as I am noticing price drops not only for apartments such as 1 month free for 13 month lease (and rental prices have remained constant for last 12 months), but also I notice a lot of sales such as Tucktec is offering major discounts with its kayaks right before spring season.

,
1855   gabbar   2023 Mar 10, 4:21am  

WookieMan says

cisTits says


WookieMan says



No points proven or discussed. Gaslighting. I'm sure strawman is next. Keep it coming. I thought Iwog was bad... and that's saying a lot.


You are talking to yourself, pal.


Crickets.......... Figured.

Gentlemen, please let it go. Let's move on. Today's Friday, enjoy your weekend.
1856   WookieMan   2023 Mar 10, 6:13am  

gabbar says

Gentlemen, please let it go. Let's move on. Today's Friday, enjoy your weekend.

I tend to agree, but when you've done it professionally for 15 years and made a good living off it I think my analysis of things is better than clickbait real estate articles. Or no rebuttal as to why I'm wrong. I explain why prices are dropping in CERTAIN areas and I've heard of no explanation about my logic being WRONG. Just character attacks.

Taking one region, CA and extrapolating that across the country makes no sense. I was a real estate broker before and during the last bust. It's like telling someone getting shot at in Afghanistan/Iraq that they have no clue about war for example. Sorry it's frustrating and devolves into Iwog type argument style of covering tracks and not having a thought.

CA is having an exodus of people. So are cities because of policy and crime. 1year of high interest rates on qualified borrows does not result in a housing crash. The national median goes down if 200k people move out of CA to a substantially lower COLA. That doesn't mean Nebraska, Wisconsin, Iowa are declining. In many cases they're still going up. But the price drops in CA seem dire and drag down the national median housing price.

95% of buyers are locked in at rates under 5% or are completely paid off. They're not moving into new or existing houses because of the high interest rates. That means low inventory and less to choose from so people will pay more where there's less inventory. CA is going to get bashed for sure. But this isn't a housing bust for the majority that are fine staying put.

This is my frustration on this thread. No counter argument has been presented at all. It's because it's logical and what is literally happening in the real world. Nah, all you get is high interest rates = a housing bust.... That's not an answer or argument. Just start a thread on the CA housing bust, because it's simply not happening everywhere.
1857   B.A.C.A.H.   2023 Mar 10, 7:46am  

WookieMan says


Just start a thread on the CA housing bust


Ahem, that's what ad did when he started this thread:

ad says


Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop.


Chill out.
1858   WookieMan   2023 Mar 10, 8:35am  

ad says


housing prices peak 2

That's the OP thread title. Nothing to do with California.

Selling a house in California does not mean the thread is based on California, just a link. Just someone making a prediction and sold a home in California. Ad is from the panhandle of FL. I'm from IL. I could predict a housing collapse and say I sold my house in the Panhandle of FL for example, yet I'm in IL.

It was never a CA housing thread. It was housing prices are peaking thread, that then got dragged into the California mud because this is a California centric site. I'm not wrong in anything I state. This is becoming a joke at this point. I even addressed the California market with logical and valid thoughts. I'm not sure the pushback. I've said multiple times I'm not a bull. Projecting what is going on in CA though to the rest of the country as has been done isn't logical and isn't happening. High interest rates only lower inventory as most people since 2010 are locked into sub 5% rates and/or paid off and are qualified to carry the debt. Prove me wrong. I've asked multiple times and no one has answered.
1859   AD   2023 Mar 10, 10:52am  

.

We can at least agree California is a white liberal shithole state. Its an anomaly just like its uppity governor Birdbrain Newsom.

It is more volatile and extreme in California given the economic conditions such as salaries within the San Fran Bay Area and how deep-pocketed white liberals will sell there and move to cheaper states like Idaho, Arizona, Nevada, and Texas (and hopefully not the Florida panhandle).

When I saw Patrick on 20/20 television show about 15 years ago, he did not state he was commenting only on California real estate.

Patrick's book about debt equals slavery is not only about California, alias Mexifornia.

.
1860   AD   2023 Mar 10, 10:57am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says

Just start a thread on the CA housing bust

Ahem, that's what ad did when he started this thread:


Wookie, read the Yahoo article as Kiesel was commenting about the housing market in the USA, not just Mexifornia.

The Yahoo article links to the below website, and Kiesel comments on the USA housing market.
https://www.ocregister.com/2022/04/28/pimco-bond-manager-who-called-housings-top-and-bottom-says-sell-now/

.
1862   Patrick   2023 Mar 10, 12:19pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/11n6qtn/seller_entitlement_syndrome/

Seller Entitlement Syndrome



It usually goes like this:

Seller hires agent

Seller doesn't list at suggested sales price and wants it listed 50k-100k over market and will not negotiate backwards from the crazy high number. Seller cites 1 irrelevant comp as the basis for the high price and ignores all other market data and market factors.

No buyer action on grossly overpriced listing

Seller blames agent for lack of interest

Seller won't lower the price enough to attract a buyer ($1-$1000 price reduction on a 750k house that is actually worth 625k)

Agent does as they're told and just keeps the price where it is

Listing goes stale and showings are nonexistent

Seller cancels the listing and fires agent for not getting the job done

Seller hires new agent and re-lists at an almost identical bad price as before

Cycle starts fresh and seller blames everyone else for why their house won't sell
1863   HeadSet   2023 Mar 10, 5:26pm  

Patrick says

Seller doesn't list at suggested sales price and wants it listed 50k-100k over market and will not negotiate backwards from the crazy high number

Around here, an Agent will not take such a listing. They may take a seller who is only a few thousand above market, knowing they can lower the price later.
1864   WookieMan   2023 Mar 10, 10:23pm  

HeadSet says

Patrick says


Seller doesn't list at suggested sales price and wants it listed 50k-100k over market and will not negotiate backwards from the crazy high number

Around here, an Agent will not take such a listing. They may take a seller who is only a few thousand above market, knowing they can lower the price later.

Yup. That's generally how it works. Only desperate agents take those listing and hold open houses to get buyer leads. The drawback is in a neighborhood with tight community, you'll get a reputation as not being able to sell houses. It's a risky strategy. Opening doors for buyers to show them a house is agony. While the listing agent is sitting at home with a beer. Listing are gold if you can get the seller to price it reasonably.
1865   Eman   2023 Mar 11, 12:34pm  

WookieMan says

HeadSet says


Patrick says



Seller doesn't list at suggested sales price and wants it listed 50k-100k over market and will not negotiate backwards from the crazy high number

Around here, an Agent will not take such a listing. They may take a seller who is only a few thousand above market, knowing they can lower the price later.


Yup. That's generally how it works. Only desperate agents take those listing and hold open houses to get buyer leads. The drawback is in a neighborhood with tight community, you'll get a reputation as not being able to sell houses. It's a risky strategy. Opening doors for buyers to show them a house is agony. While the listing agent is sitting at home with a beer. Listing are gold if you can get the seller to price it reasonably.

@WookieMan,

You may sound rough around the edges to some, but you’re speaking facts from your experience. I want to say thanks. We only have one life to live. Enjoy life and live happy. Do what we can control and let what we can’t control go.

We all make bets and live with the consequences. Interestingly, the people, who tend to complain, are the ones who don’t make bets. Have a great weekend.
1867   zzyzzx   2023 Mar 14, 10:46am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-costs-rent-inflation-february-2023-143233667.html

Housing costs 'dominant factor' in Feb. inflation data as rents show signs of cooling
1868   Eman   2023 Mar 14, 4:02pm  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-costs-rent-inflation-february-2023-143233667.html

Housing costs 'dominant factor' in Feb. inflation data as rents show signs of cooling

Yup, rents have peaked….for now. With all the tech layoffs, hopefully rents will cool down in the Bay Area.
1870   stfu   2023 Mar 19, 4:24am  

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/11qep42/overpaid_and_having_serious_regrets_1_full_year_in/

Overpaid and having serious regrets, 1 full year in


This thread is comedy gold. People asking her why the hell is she asking reddit for financial device then counter arguments that she can't trust her family because they 'forced' her into bad decision and then her response? "My family directly manages all of my liquid assets so it makes it hard to exclude them from this kind of thing"

Yeah, not feeling sorry for her. Not sure she's lost a penny of her own money.

Just once, I'd like to come into serious money that I never had to work for.
1871   GNL   2023 Mar 19, 6:07am  

stfu says

Just once, I'd like to come into serious money that I never had to work for.

I have a son inlaw whose family owns many apartments and apartment complexes in several states. The guy is a L.O.S.E.R.
1872   1337irr   2023 Mar 19, 6:37am  

GNL says

stfu says


Just once, I'd like to come into serious money that I never had to work for.

I have a son inlaw whose family owns many apartments and apartment complexes in several states. The guy is a L.O.S.E.R.

I'm involved in some real estate groups and people tell me about getting 'generational wealth' and it seems like you could end up with kids(losers) in the long run who are entitled.
1873   GNL   2023 Mar 19, 7:06am  

I highly recommend raising your kids without knowledge of how rich you are. Leave it to them when you're dead UNLESS they have shown personal traits you approve of. If I gave money to my kids, it would only be after they have already proven to be self sufficient and have no addictions. At that point, I'd have no problems giving them the money.
1875   GNL   2023 Mar 20, 10:41am  

And they're not bankrupt?

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