patrick.net

Booger says

Booger, so given demographics, etc, there will be a glut or oversupply of homes ? What housing markets does this apply to ? I would expect California as one example of this as its population only grew no more than 5% in 2010 to 2020.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/-tight-housing-market-is-already-overbuilt-one-analyst-says.html

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The best way is to not build anymore new homes in states like Connecticut and California, and build a steady supply in states like Florida and Arizona.

So the net number of houses within the USA increases 0.5% to 1% each year in line with the population increase.

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There seems to be a boom in Baja California Sur.
15 years ago I saw houses around here for $30,000.

I remember a 2 bedroom, 2 bath on Panama City Beach, FL costing about $1200 a month in 2016. Now with incentives like the first month free, they cost about $1800. So rent went up about $600 or 50% in 6 years (or 7% annually).

Below is one new "luxury" apartment complex (vinyl plank floor, quartz countertop, pool, gym clubhouse, gated community, storm water retention pond with water fountain, etc.) which is offering 1 month free. The listed price is before the discount.

;



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Checked on Zillow yesterday for San Diego County. Places for sale further out in Julian, Borrego Springs, Campo are all dropping anywhere from $10-50k, during peak summer sales time. Top is gone, and the bottom is fast approaching.

HunterTits says

https://patrick.net/post/1346441/2022-07-01-first-guaranty-mortgage-files-for#last

https://wolfstreet.com/2022/07/01/housing-bubble-getting-ready-to-pop-pending-sales-plunge-in-june-homes-listed-for-sale-jump-price-reductions-spike-amid-holy-moly-mortgage-rates/
@HunterTits...I'll go with crash in the Bay Area if I have to pick one.

SF & SJ are up 34+% in inventory YoY changed my mind.

Bay area cities have been on a decline for a while because they have become mostly shitholes, though there are a few nice hoods left. So the people have been fleeing to the country which they have been bidding up. SF is in trouble also commercial RE wise.

HunterTits says

ad says

Booger, so given demographics, etc, there will be a glut or oversupply of homes ? What housing markets does this apply to ? I would expect California as one example of this as its population only grew no more than 5% in 2010 to 2020.

Ppl are fixated on how not enough homes have been built...but these past 16 month or so about 2 million have been in various stages of construction.

Again, the effects will apply per local housing market.

Boise is a damn fine example right now.

?
What do you mean? Boise is going to crash...there is a ton of land out there just like Colorado Springs and Denver. Also pandemic forbearance are done with so more houses will be coming on the market.

Booger says

I wonder why the drop in price after buying it so recently.

Wow! that is 1/3 down in 3 mo. so far. Pending does not means final to buy. Which city is it. I observed a house around pulled from the market but not in private. The sale sign is still there and occasionally buyers are visiting.

this is the house that Booger is referencing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17480-Madison-Ave-Castro-Valley-CA-94546/24915981_zpid/

ad says

this is the house that Booger is referencing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17480-Madison-Ave-Castro-Valley-CA-94546/24915981_zpid/

They built this house in the middle of a big swale. The retaining wall in the backyard was half-ass built. Look at the slopes around the house. This house will be a pond when it rains. All the water will run towards the house. 🤦🏻‍♂️

1337irr says

I wonder why the drop in price after buying it so recently

They probably asked too much to begin with.

ad says

this is the house that Booger is referencing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17480-Madison-Ave-Castro-Valley-CA-94546/24915981_zpid/

House should be bulldozed

Booger says

1337irr says

I wonder why the drop in price after buying it so recently

They probably asked too much to begin with.

They just increased the price by $45K.

ad says

this is the house that Booger is referencing

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/17480-Madison-Ave-Castro-Valley-CA-94546/24915981_zpid/

Lots to unpack here.

Castro Valley is one of the densest, most populated unincorporated areas around. Because there is no municipality, there is no police, no fire, and no city permitting, - so no city building codes. Maybe this house would be permitted within a municipality, maybe not. Who knows? Residents rely on Alameda County sheriff and Alameda County Fire, resources they share with Oak-Town, for safety and fire protection.

As E-man pointed out about the topography, the site is prone to flooding. We're in a drought now, but we can also get torrents of rain and flooding. It's as sure to happen as drought. With torrential rain come mudslides. Hillside homes are lost to mudslides all the time.

The parcel is at the edge of a wooded area on the East Bay Hills. Fire is a natural part of the environment. The native Oak Trees that come right up to the house are adapted to fire, unlike the housing we humans make that encroaches into natural fire zones.

Did the earlier pending sale fall through because the buyer could not get fire insurance? I wonder.

HunterTits says

Boise is going to crash

Median sales price is $585,000 in Boise, according to https://www.redfin.com/city/2287/ID/Boise/housing-market

It may bottom to $400,000 which is at late 2020 levels. Just what the Anti-Inflation Doctor ordered, about a 33% correction.

And then the cycle is restarted but hopefully it will be dragged out longer (i.e., 2023 to 2033) and not be compressed (i.e., mid 2020 to early 2022).

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For Booger's post directly above, this is the home: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2854-S-Dexter-Way-Denver-CO-80222/13414247_zpid/

So the investor is trying to unload this quickly before they lose 10% or more ? Its listing price and last sales price is about 35% more than the purchase price in 2020.

The problem is this shows desperation and motivates buyers to remain on the sidelines for even more bloodshed.

I think the Federal Reserve wants this to happen, in order to bring house and stock values down to mid 2020 levels.

The run up from mid 2020 to early 2022 was solely based on monetary policy and federal government handouts (i.e., cancel rent, etc.).

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I'm curiousad says

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For Booger's post directly above, this is the home: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2854-S-Dexter-Way-Denver-CO-80222/13414247_zpid/

So the investor is trying to unload this quickly before they lose 10% or more ? Its listing price and last sales price is about 35% more than the purchase price in 2020.

The problem is this shows desperation and motivates buyers to remain on the sidelines for even more bloodshed.

I think the Federal Reserve wants this to happen, in order to bring house and stock values down to mid 2020 levels.

The run up from mid 2020 to early 2022 was solely based on monetary policy and federal government handouts (i.e., cancel rent, etc.).

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I'm curious if the feds will raise rates more and stop buying mortgages. I want some blood on the streets, I want to be swimming in it.

The real culprit is Biden admin gave away trillions to (fake) companies. You remember scandamic checks not to work and lose productivity to folks but in reality it was only 7% of $Ts. The remaining 93% silently went to (fake) business. That money is coming out and chasing goods, stocks, commodities, housing etc. and creating inflation. Perhaps this is the largest scam ever. Not enough goods but more free printed money in wrong hands. Now we witness its consequences.

Looks like according to this chart that some of the peasants cashed in their poker chips near the market highs for housing, but we will have to see what the future holds. Many institutional investors don't care if they make money or not. They simply have money to invest so they will pay ridiculous prices even knowing they will lose money,

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-homeownership-rate-tumbles-to-1980s-levels-11657061992?siteid=yhoof2

Based on US population so far about 2-3 million home owners cashed out to the institutional buyers.

Misc says

Looks like according to this chart that some of the peasants cashed in their poker chips near the market highs for housing, but we will have to see what the future holds. Many institutional investors don't care if they make money or not. They simply have money to invest so they will pay ridiculous prices even knowing they will lose money,

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-homeownership-rate-tumbles-to-1980s-levels-11657061992?siteid=yhoof2

Based on US population so far about 2-3 million home owners cashed out to the institutional buyers.

I see bad things for the future. Diminished living standards for most people.

It should be about time for the Washington establishment to start expanding opportunities for generational wealth building. Especially for the marginalized members of society. I mean the Blacks fell for it under Bush's "ownership society". Mortgage brokers fell all over themselves to put Blacks into subprime mortgages that shot up in payments after a year or so. Sure, they made these products available at the height of the housing bubble when prices were stupid, but the mortgagees had "character". After the bubble burst, and by golly the mortgage payments that doubled just weren't paid; the Blacks were worse off than they started as a percentage of them as homeowners.

Think they will fall for government help again ????

Their track record ain't the greatest.

zzyzzx says

Yeah, sign me up to immediately start losing over $1,000/month with the upside of a ruined home after the tenants are done with it. Stupid is as stupid does.

https://www.newsweek.com/housing-market-real-estate-mortgage-phoenix-arizona-interest-1722144

Housing Market Warning as Prices Suddenly Fall in One U.S. City

But between May and June, the median price has gone down by $10,000 and now sits at $505,000. It prompted housing journalist Lance Lambert to share the graph and the tweet, "Did the home price top already get blown off in Phoenix?"

https://rudy.substack.com/p/the-models-are-wrong

BayArea says

House should be bulldozed

Call me crazy, but that lot has SB-9 potential.

There will be blood...?

EBGuy says

There will be blood...?

Don't look down...

I've got a few saved searches with Redskin and Illow for which I receive new listings e-mails. I haven't done one for Austin, but for Boise, my Inbox is flooded with e-mails, just about all with price reductions. And folks who purchased in the last several years are still trying to harvest 20% annual price increases, as if that is normal. A quirk of sales data reporting for Idaho is that the sold price cannot be made public. For that, you need access to the MLS, so a realtor can tell you.

Below is classic. If I've done the math correctly, these dwebes were fishing for an average 30% annual increase over the January 2020 $475,900 listing price, as if by magic. Of course, they could have overbid, but even so. Them days are long behind you now.

UPDATE

After failing to attract any buyers at the April 2022 price of $839,900, after several rounds of dropping the price, it now is offered at $679,900, a 20% drop. Even so, at that price, it's about a 17% annual increase off of listing price in the short two and one half years they have owned it.

Do I hear $579,900?

Jul 7, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
Jun 21, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
Jun 14, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
May 26, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
May 22, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
May 19, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
May 9, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
May 5, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
Apr 25, 2022
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98839246
*
Price
Apr 21, 2022
Date
Listed (Active)
IMLS #98839246
$839,900
Price
Mar, 2020
Mar 26, 2020
Date
Sold (MLS) (Sold)
IMLS #98755531
*
Price
Mar 5, 2020
Date
Pending
IMLS #98755531
—
Price
Feb 12, 2020
Date
Price Changed
IMLS #98755531
*
Price
Jan 27, 2020
Date
Listed (Active)
IMLS #98755531
$475,900
Price

I'm hearing mortgage renegotiation ads for the first time in a decade or more on the radio. Now on two stations.

EBGuy says

There will be blood...?

Correction to HPI of 280?

Until inventory jumps, don't worry about the prices to be honest. Anyone can get work right now. The cost of goods/oil have just shot through the roof. Plus no one is traveling internationally for the most part, but domestically, so the dollar is getting dumped right back into the US.

Until wages drop, interest rates completely skyrocket, or high UE, housing prices ain't moving all that much. Some areas might see a small dip. We're still significantly below the trend line in that graph from the bubble. We need to be above 225 before you start freaking out when factoring inflation. Might be 250-275 to be called a bubble.

Housing ain't the issue right now. Price of goods and moving/transporting them. We need to stop with this green shit. Clearly it doesn't work. It's a tax on the poorest of the poor which is hypocritical of the left. Lower fuel/oil/goods, make their constituents have more wealth. Their policies are ass backwards to the people they purport to represent.

Fact is they don't want them moving to the right/conservative. Keep them constantly poor, give handouts, rinse and repeat.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/to-rob-the-public-they-must-first

A new Zillow® survey shows 50% of home buyers say the process left them in tears, with Gen Zers and millennials — many of whom are first-time home buyers – far more likely to cry at least once during their home-buying journey. More than 65% of Gen Z buyers and 61% of millennial buyers cried at least once when going through the process of purchasing their home.

I got nine Deadfin e-mail Boise listings this evening, eight with price reductions. The avalanche may just be getting started.