patrick.net

Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.

Misc says

Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.

that is not a reasonable solution for an existing working age labor force of citizens who are lazy and/or dumb

.

Bitcoiner says

Who is deagal and what is he saying?
Also, you hope for people to die for inventory to rise?!

From Rumble: "Deagel Corporation issue a forecast for the American population of 2025 back in 2014. It held such a drastic reduction, along with other western countries, that it was shocking to the many who saw it. We'll take a look and see how the numbers are adding up, along with and update on deaths that certainly appear to be from the COVID shots, as well as a warning against the 5G rollout which appears to be a kill switch."

If people die off, then that means less demand for housing. Also, the homes they live in either go for sale or are rented, so as to increase supply.

It creates a demographics bomb, as then there is a glut of residential real estate.

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Bitcoiner says

Reminds me of those nut jobs that predict the end of the world by a certain date.

If someone’s hope is based on this deagal….for buying a house at a discount due to skyrocketing inventory (because millions of Americans die)….than I’d say this screams desperation and is probably too pathetic to discuss further.

Yeah, I don't see how this is even possible. IF it were to happen, last thing anyone should be worried about is housing. Not that prices wouldn't drop, but you could just go squat in vacant homes and not worry about buying them. Losing 200 million people means there's be no enforcement of anything. There wouldn't be judges, attorneys and a mortgage servicer to follow through with foreclosure. 70% of them would be dead...

Doomsday stuff is kind of stupid. The vaccine was dumb, but I highly doubt that many people are dropping from it. 2019 was the last time I attended a funeral and that was for my dad who was 70. Not young, but old enough for death. We know a lot of people. My wife is in an industry where decision makers are 50 plus. Maybe 1 dies a year. We're talking 1,000+ people she knows or knows of across the country.

Inventory, interest rates (double digits), building and employment are the only things possibly bringing prices down dramatically. The first doesn't change until the last three go parabolic for a crash to happen. You can get a job doing anything now that pays well above minimum wage. Some will give bonuses for signing on. We'll see what they do with interest rates. And building en mass is not happing because there are no qualified tradesmen.

The only other X factor is taxes. If Dems were to get Congress and POTUS in 2024 they WILL raise taxes. Republicans need to unify yesterday and just admit Trump is the guy. And if you don't like him, get Desantis on board as VP to groom him (bad term... lol) for 2028. He's a backstop if Trump gets impeached and actually removed from office AND he could still get 2 terms if he had to take over. Infighting over 2024 is the worst possible move for Republicans.

WookieMan says

We don't have people that can do framing, concrete, electric and plumbing. No one knows how to do it outside of a select few. Where building is happening they move to that area and there's nothing in areas where there's no building. It will take another decade and maybe two for it to level out in most areas.

How does one learn electric and plumbing or even framing and concrete? These are not simple skills

gabbar says

WookieMan says

We don't have people that can do framing, concrete, electric and plumbing. No one knows how to do it outside of a select few. Where building is happening they move to that area and there's nothing in areas where there's no building. It will take another decade and maybe two for it to level out in most areas.

How does one learn electric and plumbing or even framing and concrete? These are not simple skills

Trade schools and unions. Shadow a small business owner that works in trades that needs help. They generally do. Problem today is that no one has work ethic and too many distractions.

I talk a lot about my wife's work, but her crews are young men. It's mild physical labor in road contruction. They can make $90k/yr WITH 3-4 months off and do plowing or other cash side gigs. A few employees stick but they churn through 4-5 annually that can't handle it. There's about 20 at her shop.

We're talking sitting in a truck and the most labor intensive part is standing with a stop/slow paddle or putting down cones. Basically you stand for 8-10 hours. It's mindless. No education needed outside of a quick training on the equipment and maybe a CDL if you don't want to do the physical part.

Electric is actually really easy if you have the equipment. There's not much to it for residential. Same with plumbing. Tools have become so advanced that you can plumb a house quickly as far as sweating pipes. Framing is going off site now a days. We just had a house in my small town framed and roofed (not shingles) in 2 days. They just brought panels in and put them together like a puzzle. They were from concrete pour to framed house in 10 days.

The ability to build is there, but I forgot the fact builders are risk averse. Most are boomers and pre-boomers that run the show. They don't want to over build. Around me at least it's one off builds. No more subdivisions built with anticipation for demand.

WookieMan says

No more subdivisions built with anticipation for demand.

That's because you are in Illinois.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

No more subdivisions built with anticipation for demand.

That's because you are in Illinois.

I travel the country. Besides the Northeast coastal area, because that's a shit hole. Only states I've witnessed building is TX, FL, TN, AZ, ID, MT, UT and CO (though I think CO is slowing). Tradesmen go where the money is. I've been in all these state in the last 3-4 years. I'm talking residential as well. Not for CRE or regular commercial.

I have not been to CA since 2018ish. Will be this fall. SoCal, but will be interested to see what's changed since our previous visits. I really have no interest in visiting the Bay area out there or any of Central CA besides Yosemite to check that NP box. Northern CA is fine. Beautiful.

Bitcoiner says

If someone’s hope is based on this deagal….for buying a house at a discount due to skyrocketing inventory (because millions of Americans die)….than I’d say this screams desperation and is probably too pathetic to discuss further.

My prediction was inventory will remain constrained forever UNLESS Deagal and/or the jab theorists are correct. I believe it's baked into the cake via government and their desires/actions.

Bitcoiner says

Eman
I want to take the risk and try the BRRRR method.

Any tips and advice you have for finding below market deals/fixer uppers besides finding the crappiest house in a good neighborhood?

Do you usually walk the property with a contractor to estimate the rehab costs?

From your experience, after the rehab…… the property appraises for more than the purchase price + rehab cost? …. in order to pull the cash back out during the refi?

@Bitcoiner,

Real estate is a relationship business. The veterans call it belly to belly biz so they’re anti app this and technology that.

So many ways to find deals. An investor friend takes different routes whenever he drives around. He’s looking for rundown and abandoned properties. He would take down the address, look it up and send the owner a letter stating he’s interested in buying the property.

For us, we sell ourselves to all listing agents/brokers in our market. We would ask them out for lunch and have a chat. We share our investment criteria, location, etc… Share with them why they should work with you. Then follow up, follow up and follow up. Always stay in front of them. Don’t be out of sight and out of mind.

Out of 10 agents, you’d be looking at 40-50 deals a year in your market. You’d be lucky to get 1-2 deals per year while you’d be having lunch with them at least a couple times a year each. Once you have an established closing track record, then deals will come to you regularly. Whoever sold you the deal, that agent owns the listing for life unless they’re retired like one of the agents in our market today.

@EBGuy,

Just closed this flip today for $1.3M. Added about 250sq to it. We received 3 offers with this one being the cleanest. We could squeeze a little more with doing multiple counteroffers, but it’s good enough for me to close and move on.

https://redf.in/Bdc4iU

Here’s another one in the area for anyone who is up to the challenge. Don’t blame it on the flippers. We help to beautify the neighborhood one home at a time while putting food on the table for our family and the subcontractors’.

https://redf.in/TjtInP

"BUZZARDS CIRCLING OVERHEAD? Yesterday I read an article about commercial real estate in San Francisco The two biggest hotels just went into foreclosure, i.e., the owners stopped paying the loans and dropped them back in the lenders’ laps. Another 20 hotels are lined up to do the same (crime, human feces, and homeless folks filling the sidewalks do NOT attract tourists.) Also, 30% of the commercial office space is vacant, and owners are also letting office buildings go in foreclosure. Here are the circling buzzards: y’all remember Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS)? When the residential real estate market blew up, Mortgage-Backed Securities and the derivatives hedging their interest rates exploded like Mount Krakatoa and launched the 2008 financial crisis. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities are the same animal, only commercial rather than residential. May be no more than a feather in the wind, but then, too, that might be a buzzard feather."

- F Sanders

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bosses-fed-remote-4-main-193500794.html

Bosses are fed up with remote work for 4 main reasons

I disagree with a lot in this article from personal experience. Perhaps there's truth for kids fresh out of college, but not for productive, experienced workers. I suppose it depends on the person as well.

I think where remote work falls down is in a hybrid scenario because people use their "off days" to slack off. If you're held accountable to get work done, the slackers will eventually be caught.

Bitcoiner says

Who is deagal and what is he saying?
Also, you hope for people to die for inventory to rise?!

@GND and @ad - I follow all the conspiracy bullshit, 95% which I know is bullshit. Deagel is bullshit.

I can find this original source only because I posted it before:

https://web.archive.org/web/20200828083314/https://www.deagel.com/country/United%20States%20of%20America
(may take a while to load from the Internet archive)

Basically it predicted a PRECIPITOUS decline in the US population by 2025 to be only around 100 million. That's about a 2/3rd decline.

Deagel is just a bullshit site. It bills itself as an "intelligence site", but it's not. If you go through earlier predictions (and later predictions) it's readily apparent it's just some nut posting bullshit, or it's a psy-op by our government intelligence agencies. I don't mind nuts, but if it's psy-ops, we're paying for it.

It's nonsense.

I follow propaganda, and it's not only government sourced. This was all over the net for a while, and I smelled bullshit, once I dug into it, it was pure manure. This is their CURRENT link outside of archive.org:

https://www.deagel.com/country/United%20States%20of%20America

You can see how much they modified it and see it's absent of any "forecast".

I've tried to trace the owner of the site, nobody knows who it is, it was widely referenced years ago, it's impossible to confirm, that tells me it's bullshit, and probably intelligence. It's somebody that won't stand behind their work, that generally means asshole intelligence psy-op agent. You don't know what dickheads they are. Their only job is to cause panic.

porkchopexpress says

I think where remote work falls down is in a hybrid scenario because people use their "off days" to slack off. If you're held accountable to get work done, the slackers will eventually be caught.

I would usually work 5-6 hours remotely with the brokerage and then 3-4 hours on the weekend. Kind of had to in real estate, so it burned me out after 15 years. When you're on vacation and have to still work it sucks. I got "vacation" time but there was never a true vacation in real estate. I was on the clock 24/7 basically. I was on my phone all the time. I have no clue how call center people live that life. It's a job I guess.

That's why I now work flexible or fixed time jobs so I don't have to work during off hours or take work home with me or deal with customers. Just bosses/managers and even then rarely. Kind of if the work gets done you're golden.

Interesting statistics. Years ago, I read a book where it had 74% of people became millionaires through real estate.

Secondly, the 70% rule for flippers. I use 55% rule. Others are aggressive. 😅

Eman says

Secondly, the 70% rule for flippers. I use 55% rule. Others are aggressive.

In other words be extremely obnoxious and try to exploit and Jew them down more on the price, assuming there is no illegal behavior like sabotage property to get a lower price or engaging in collusion or antitrust ??????

ad says

Eman says

Secondly, the 70% rule for flippers. I use 55% rule. Others are aggressive.

In other words be extremely obnoxious and try to exploit and Jew them down more on the price, assuming there is no illegal behavior like sabotage property to get a lower price or engaging in collusion or antitrust ??????

@ad,

https://redf.in/TjtInP

It’s on the market for everyone to buy. If I’m going to pay $500-$600k for it, I have to be able to resell it for $950-$1.1M. Don’t have to be obnoxious. Don’t have to chew anyone. Don’t have to sabatoge anything, or do anything illegal. Why such negative thoughts?

If someone is willing to pay more than that, it’s theirs.

@ad,

As I shared above, I paid $740k for something nearby and just sold it for $1.3M. Mortgage rate is freaking over 7% for the buyer. If it were in the mid 5% like earlier this year, it would have gone for $1.4-$1.45M.

As Henry Ford once said “if you think it’s possible, or impossible, you’re both right.”

I recently saw an investor paid $20M for a 60-unit building in Palo Alto. I was shocked. That was an impossible, freaking cheap, price. I guess that’s why he’s a billionaire as he thinks “it’s possible.”

Eman says

Don’t have to chew anyone.

I kindly ask you go back and read again what I wrote. I said Jew them down, not chew them down. There is a big difference.

I am just skeptical of shark real estate investors and what they can do to try to get a steal deal like collude with the sellers agent, etc.

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Eman says

I recently saw an investor paid $20M for a 60-unit building in Palo Alto

$333k per apartment unit ... that is steep especially since its a +50 year old apartment complex ... what do they charge for monthly rent ? at least $4000 ?

.

Properties listed at top of Yuma rental market continue to sit, and drop in price hundreds of dollars before they're rented. When we were viewing I was told by property manager for two of the properties they had tried to sell first, didn't get what they wanted, so switched to rental. First one set for over a month before they found a tenant. Second one is still on the market.

NuttBoxer says

Properties listed at top of Yuma rental market continue to sit, and drop in price hundreds of dollars before they're rented. When we were viewing I was told by property manager for two of the properties they had tried to sell first, didn't get what they wanted, so switched to rental. First one set for over a month before they found a tenant. Second one is still on the market.

It is summertime in Yuma. Yuma has the highest seasonal migration of any city in the US.

NuttBoxer says

Another great example of the greed an insanity that gripped housing in this current bubble. House in Julian Borrego Springs listed for over $600k a year ago. Finally sold a year later for nearly $150k UNDER original asking price. Now listed for rent for $3,900. Still vacant. No one from here would ever pay that much to live in Julian...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1831-Hunter-Dr-Borrego-Springs-CA-92004/16645537_zpid/

This is a furnished rental. This explains the high asking rent for the value of the house. Current owner bought it in 2017 for $166k.

The other furnished rental I've seen they tried to sell it first. As those are less common in Borrego, I'd suspect the same thing.

Misc says

It is summertime in Yuma. Yuma has the highest seasonal migration of any city in the US.

For sure, although a lot of that migration is workers from Mexico. Those guys aren't renting single family homes I'm guessing. The snowbirds tend to have their places paid for and some rent them over the summer. Then there's military, but those guys move any time, not based on season.

The drops are all over the board, from the $2,000 range, down to the lower end of $1,500. One guy is now asking $200 less than what he got a year ago, and has dropped his price $400 from when he first listed. Another with pool dropped $400 almost instantly within the past week.

If I was moving to Yuma, first thing I'd ask after qualifying to sign lease is for a rent reduction. The market is falling, and realtors know it.

And remember, whatever starts in Yuma, will make it's way to San Diego, and every other RE market by next year.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/14oxauw/we_have_a_really_good_mortgage_rate_but_cant/

We have a really good mortgage rate but can’t afford our bills.

But inflation is supposed to fix everything for loanbuyers!!

Bitcoiner says

When you spell it all out it becomes clear why inflation is considered your friend if you are a homeowner.

Or a sociopath that likes war and hates people.

Bitcoiner says

With inflation, income and rents go up. And when you own assets and debt, inflation is a tailwind for you. Your debt “loses” in value because it’s fixed but your income goes up. And as a bonus your asset value increases over time. When you spell it all out it becomes clear why inflation is considered your friend if you are a homeowner.

This is not quite accurate. During inflationary periods nominal wages may rise, but real wages may not. And there are numerous examples of home prices going down during inflationary periods.

Bitcoiner says

I wouldn’t say it fixes everything for you but it certainly helps.
With inflation, income and rents go up. And when you own assets and debt, inflation is a tailwind for you. Your debt “loses” in value because it’s fixed but your income goes up. And as a bonus your asset value increases over time. When you spell it all out it becomes clear why inflation is considered your friend if you are a homeowner.

I'm talking about loan owners, that's the context people use the most often when justifying inflation. But like you they ignore the practicality of everything going up, and how that will screw them out of anything they don't really own. Stay in the real world with me and understand that in the tech space, one that has done well far longer than blue collar, wages are NOT keeping up with inflation. And many companies are laying employees due to inflation cutting into their profits. No RE articles with bullshit stats, just real world experience by myself and people I know, companies I've worked for.

Utilities go up(actually read the linked article). Food, gas, maintenance, everything. Went to the movies the other day, for three adult tickets, a small popcorn, candy, and nachos price was $80. Going out to eat and ordering three meals, with tip, $100. A couple packs of good beer and some sunscreen, $75. Real prices, from my real life.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Bitcoiner says

With inflation, income and rents go up. And when you own assets and debt, inflation is a tailwind for you. Your debt “loses” in value because it’s fixed but your income goes up. And as a bonus your asset value increases over time. When you spell it all out it becomes clear why inflation is considered your friend if you are a homeowner.

This is not quite accurate. During inflationary periods nominal wages may rise, but real wages may not. And there are numerous examples of home prices going down during inflationary periods.

For my 3 SFRs inflation sucks. First, I had to raise rents more than normal and I hate that. But also my insurance, property taxes and maintenance costs are way up as well. I don't think I covered it with the rent increase. Giant pain in the ass is what it is.

Bitcoiner says

Cry me a river. Your rents went up and you don’t think you covered the increased expenses….forgot to mention your house values went to the moon over the past decade? Bottom line, you are way wealthier today compared to 5 years ago.

So far I think it's a wash at best. Glad I have them or I would have fallen behind but I don't think this round of inflation is helping much of anyone. Value doesn't matter much if I don't plan to sell for 30 years. I'd rather it stay flat then suddenly spike at year 29!

Bitcoiner says

In 15 years from now people will say how cheap houses were in 2023. That’s the brutal reality.

Unfortunately, this is true. They will also say "In 2023, most families did not have to double up to afford rent/mortgage."

HeadSet says

Bitcoiner says

In 15 years from now people will say how cheap houses were in 2023. That’s the brutal reality.

Unfortunately, this is true. They will also say "In 2023, most families did not have to double up to afford rent/mortgage."

The same thing was said in the early 1970’s. Most people could buy a house and lived on single household income.

In the early 2001, I was working with a couple older gentlemen, who said if they knew what they had known then, they would have bought 5 houses in Cupertino. They would have been much better off, and this was 20+ years ago. For this reason, I went all in and bought as much as I could afford, borrowed and financed between 2009-2013.

just_passing_through says

Bitcoiner says

Cry me a river. Your rents went up and you don’t think you covered the increased expenses….forgot to mention your house values went to the moon over the past decade? Bottom line, you are way wealthier today compared to 5 years ago.

So far I think it's a wash at best. Glad I have them or I would have fallen behind but I don't think this round of inflation is helping much of anyone. Value doesn't matter much if I don't plan to sell for 30 years. I'd rather it stay flat then suddenly spike at year 29!

This is the downfall of being a landlord rather than letting the property management company handle it. We’ve been getting record rents on our apartments while a handle units, that I still manage, the tenants are still paying way below market rents. They’ve been with me for too long to raise rent too much on them.

Eman says

For this reason, I went all in and bought as much as I could afford, borrowed and financed between 2009-2013.

Smart choice and a product of your age...opportunity + preparedness. And there is always at least just a bit of luck involved.

Bitcoiner says

Onvacation says

Bitcoiner says

When you spell it all out it becomes clear why inflation is considered your friend if you are a homeowner.

Or a sociopath that likes war and hates people.

But he's right.

Inflation is an attack on both the middle and lower class. The way inflation works is that it makes you a slave to the banking system, it's also used to pay for war as a hidden tax, and it's used to make savings as difficult as possible.

Debt isn't wealth, but that's what our Keynesian system makes you think. It will eventually destroy the country, what is left of it.

richwicks says

Bitcoiner says

Onvacation says

Bitcoiner says

When you spell it all out it becomes clear why inflation is considered your friend if you are a homeowner.

Or a sociopath that likes war and hates people.

But he's right.

Inflation is an attack on both the middle and lower class. The way inflation works is that it makes you a slave to the banking system, it's also used to pay for war as a hidden tax, and it's used to make savings as difficult as possible.

Debt isn't wealth, but that's what our Keynesian system makes you think.

And this is what should anger everyone. But, it is what it is and we are all responsible for our own selves.

Bitcoiner says

Can you point to moment in time where house prices dipped during inflation?