patrick.net

Canary in the coal mine?

Things had horribly dried up in the Las Vegas market with it tough to even meet my “must have” list.

Last week and this week there were at least ten homes in my redfin saved searches that met all my “must haves”and most or all of my “would be nice”. Several in Henderson and Summerlin.

Keep in mind my searches cap out at $525k. Even had a few homes not in the ghetto pop up in the $325-375k range and it’s the first time in a while I’ve seen that. There have been other homes in that price range for the past couple years but everyone was in an unlivable area.

$250,983 TYPICAL HOME VALUE
$209,916 TYPICAL VALUE ONE YEAR AGO
-13.6% 1-YEAR FORECASTED VALUE DECREASE
339 HOMES FOR SALE
39 HOMES RECENTLY SOLD
********
$302,217 TYPICAL HOME VALUE
$262,493 TYPICAL VALUE ONE YEAR AGO
-12.1% 1-YEAR FORECASTED VALUE DECREASE
179 HOMES FOR SALE
46 HOMES RECENTLY SOLD

HunterTits says

WineHorror1 says

A 3% price cut on a "hope to get" price? That ain't much

$20k "ain't much"?

And why was it sitting there for about a month? Should not be happening at all!

Most likely the original asking price was trying to set the market.

HunterTits says

WineHorror1 says

Most likely the original asking price was trying to set the market.

So?

So that doesn't mean it's falling. It just means people aren't getting their dream price.

WineHorror1 says

Only 29 days...

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/11334-Merganser-Rd-Klamath-Falls-OR-97601/75156902_zpid/

It sold for $315,000 or $121 per square foot in 2003.

Assume 4% annual price appreciation based on Professor Robert Shiller's research for average annual appreciation for a home in North America, and that would be 2.19 times its values now, 20 years later.

So $690,000 is not unreasonable. It is selling for $630,000 now.

,,,,,

HunterTits says

WineHorror1 says

A 3% price cut on a "hope to get" price? That ain't much

$20k "ain't much"?

And why was it sitting there for about a month? Should not be happening at all!

$20k really isn't. I could get $20k+ in actual physical cash in less than an hour on credit. It's why I have 20 or so CC's. The ability to jump at an opportunity is a must. Max out IRA's/401k's as they're protected asset classes in BK and borrow your life away (if you want) and they can't touch those investment accounts.

Key is to not get sued by someone that can actually garnish wages if/when you might default or the IRS. But if you're smart you can tell your employer to make you a 1099 employee which they'd do back flips over if you were W-2. Expense the fuck out of everything and show no income and garnishment cannot happen. Everyone that has actual wealth does this.

Outside of family hand me down wealth, anyone I know that is wealthy has defaulted on a bunch of shit. The key is to protect your assets. As long as you keep paying your home loan, it can't be taken in BK. Can't touch retirement accounts. I don't think people fully understand the game. I can quit paying all my CC's and no one can touch my money and I don't have to file BK and wages cannot be garnished. It's why CC's have 20%+ interest rates. It's a risk. Of course your credit will be destroyed, but you can actually dispute that and get it back up quicker than you'd think.

HunterTits says

Outright bullshit is now considered 'research'??

Below is my source for Shiller's statement and research, boy. I figure 3.5% annual inflation since 2003 and added 0.5% to it. Shiller stated housing grows about 0.5% above inflation.

https://thebellacasagroup.com/a-lesson-on-appreciation/

What Is A Normal Appreciation Rate?
What might surprise most people is that pure housing appreciation is normally a very low number. Recently I read this, “When adjusted for inflation, American home prices increased by an average of about half a percentage point per year from 1890 through 2008, according to data compiled by Yale University Professor Robert Shiller.” (By Luke Mullins of U.S. News & World Report). See interesting notes in Wikipedia regarding the Case-Shiller Index which monitors the housing market pricing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case%E2%80%93Shiller_index

https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housing-market-crash-not-poor-subprime-borrowers-a-new-study-shows/

House flippers triggered the US housing market crash, not poor subprime borrowers

Booger says

Don't waive the inspection, I did, but I barely knew what I was getting into.

Do as I say, not as I do.

Booger says

https://qz.com/1064061/house-flippers-triggered-the-us-housing-market-crash-not-poor-subprime-borrowers-a-new-study-shows/

House flippers triggered the US housing market crash, not poor subprime borrowers

This article is from 2017, and it blamed house flippers, who were the ones triggered the US housing market crash in 2008, not poor subprime borrowers.

I beg to differ. It was loose lending aka NINJA loans, which led to speculation/speculators who thought they could “flip” brand new houses for more money a few months to a year down the road.

1337irr says

Don't waive the inspection, I did, but I barely knew what I was getting into.

Do as I say, not as I do.

And initially see if you can notice major problems that are hard to cover up like mold due to roof leaks and plumbing leaks, cracked walls due to failing foundation, etc... run hot water, turn on the stove, lower the thermostat to run the AC, check the electric circuit panel, etc... this is if your buyers agent allows you to do these quick checks...

.

$532,441 TYPICAL HOME VALUE
$466,117 TYPICAL VALUE ONE YEAR AGO
-9.6% 1-YEAR FORECASTED VALUE DECREASE
27 HOMES FOR SALE
10 HOMES RECENTLY SOLD

https://www.redfin.com/news/home-purchases-fall-through-2022/

Home Sales Are Getting Canceled at the Highest Rate Since the Start of the Pandemic

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/vvvrrw/how_to_get_positive_cash_flow/

Hi folks! I am trying to buy my first rental property in Texas. When running the numbers regardless of what I do I get negative cash flow. Unless I do a high amount of downpayment. The best case numbers scenario I have seen is at the end of each year equity is higher than initial investment + negative cash flow.

Example Townhome for 190k, 1055sq ft. Rent would be around ~1100 Calculating 5% vacancy for expense 500/yr for random expenses HOA is 100/Mo Calculating Interest at 5%

One response:
Lol you are describing a conundrum I encountered as a college student around 2006-2007. I was interested in real estate and started looking at condos and two flats. I kept coming up with absurdly negative ROIs using what I was learning in the college real estate courses I was taking.

I was certain I was doing something wrong.

I was not.

Turns out no one was cash flow positive at those prices and shit was about to hit the fan. I suspect you are having the same life experience I did.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/vvt5m8/utah_median_home_price_is_dropping_and_theres/

I’m surprised I can’t find a single article on it, so here I am. I use UtahRealEstate.com (the Utah MLS) for my data. I’m a realtor, but I specialize in SOPs for lead handling at a brokerage. I also happen to be a data nerd. So here’s the facts:

Median residential home prices just dropped 2.1% in June based on 3,500 data points. July shows that the drop is accelerating with an additional 4.6% drop based on 570 data points. For single family homes in July, sales are 1% below asking price.

Active homes for sale has been increasing at a rapid rate starting at the beginning of April. We are 150% higher than we were this time last year. Properties under contract started off good into March, but saw a sharp decline into April and May. 20% lower than this time last year.

The big concern about all of this is that June and July are historically at the end of the hottest months of the year… and the market isn’t “slowing”, it’s declining. As we head into the fall and winter months, my fear is that the slow season will only amplify the decline.

Most people who have wanted to move and buy homes have likely already done so, and now that interest rates are rising (and will continue to rise as inflation rises), buyers are experiencing serious doubts.

People listing their properties (at least in Utah) have gotten greedy. You can’t list something for 10% more than the last sale anymore. Even with the price cuts (47% of active listings experienced one in June) prices are still too high for most properties. It doesn’t help that agents can’t take good pictures of a property and stage them.

https://www.mansionglobal.com/articles/what-real-estate-industry-layoffs-could-mean-for-u-s-housing-markets-01657278554

What Real Estate Industry Layoffs Could Mean for U.S. Housing Markets

The below link is to the Zillow page for the home that zzyzx posted about just above.

It was sold in 2017 for $680,000, in 2012 for $299,000, in 2011 for $265,000, and in 2000 for $329,000.

I figure it should be worth based on 4% annual appreciation over the last 22 years: (1.04)^22 x $329,000 = $779,703

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/28290-Thackeray-Ave-Hayward-CA-94544/24992266_zpid/

AD, thank you for sharing the link about the Hayward home

All the 8's in the asking prices means the seller is probably trying to attract attention of potential buyers with Chinese superstition about the number 8.

Since Hayward is mostly still a blue collar town of Latinos and blue collar whites, a Chinese buyer would only buy as an "investment" property, not to live in.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-morning-brief-july-12-100031449.html

Rising interest rates are crushing the US housing market

We anticipate continued challenging market conditions, with mortgage originations projected to decline by roughly half in 2022 from 2021, including an accelerated decline in the second half of 2022, followed by a further decline in 2023 - Loan Depot Chief Financial Officer Patrick Flanagan, July 2022

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/scary-times-builders-cut-home-prices-and-slow-construction-as-buyers-pull-back-survey-shows-11657567086

Builders are slashing home prices and slowing construction as buyers pull back, survey shows

Home builders are feeling jittery.

That’s according to a June survey of home builder sentiment by John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Demand for new homes is cooling as buyers cancel orders, and builders are slashing prices to offload homes, the survey found.

“Scary times,” a home builder in Nashville, Tenn. told the company. “Hoard cash and hang on for the ride!”

Sales of new homes fell 31% this June as compared to last year. Cancelation rates jumped in June to 14.5% nationally, up from 6.5% a year ago, as seen in the tweet below.

The monthly survey was based on 320 participants in 84 metro areas.

Texas saw the highest rate of cancelations (when buyers terminate a contract for a new home), followed by the broader Southwest, and Northern California.

A quarter of home builders are reducing their prices, according to the John Burns Real Estate Consulting survey.

There are couple of reasons that homebuyers are pulling back: Mortgage rates have risen considerably since last year, which has made borrowing expensive, on top of rising inventory levels.

Other surveys have suggested that home builder morale is sinking. Builder confidence fell for the sixth straight month in June, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo U.S. Housing Market Index. This month’s numbers will be released on Monday.

Home builders surveyed by John Burns expressed frustration over the slowdown.

“Someone turned out the lights on our sales in June!” one builder in Atlanta, Ga. told the company.

“Sales have fallen off a cliff,” an Austin, Texas builder said. “We’re selling 1/3 of what we sold in March and April.”

A Boise, Idaho builder said that builders are slashing new home prices by 15% to 20%.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/vx904z/waited_too_long_feel_weve_ruined_our_lives_after/

I bought this house 5 years ago and renovated it. We have 450K in the house. We are not rich. We saved for 15 years for our down payment. We moved here away from our family on the east coast because jobs in Texas were booming.

With the political upheaval in Texas we decided it was time to leave. Houses were selling for 750-800K in January-March like crazy and we thought fantastic - we will leave sometime this summer. We spent two months fixing up little things and getting it ready for sale. We wanted the new owners to be happy.

We accepted an offer around 700K in May. Delays pushed it back. We are not unreasonable sellers - we had multiple offers, we accepted one that seemed reasonable. Each week we got more and more nervous as we saw news about whether the market was shifting.

To avoid doxxing myself I'll just say the sale fell through. We have been on the market now at 550K for a few weeks and nothing. I feel we have tried to be realistic in this whole process and not be overly greedy.

I know the house is not the prettiest house or the biggest house, but it's a reasonable 3/1.5 home that we've maintained. I think buyers just have more options and are pickier now. I know the advice will be, lower the price, but I don't feel that is the main issue. Everything is sitting. Each week there are more homes for sale in my town that the week before. If you have 10 homes for sale and only 5 people buying, 5 of those homes are not going to sell. We bought an ok home in an ok neighborhood, and folks can go down the road to get a much nicer home for a little more or a much nicer neighborhood for a little more

Even if I'm not underwater on my mortgage it sucks that after 5 years I will sell and after all the fees when I bought, and the fees when i sell (and now my realtor is suggesting we credit about 5-10K for buyer closing costs too?) I feel like I have wasted the past 5 years of my life in this house.

I know some folks are greedy and have been making life miserable for first time buyers, and corporations pricing people out. But with the 10% or so price appreciation you need to have just to break even on fees, and the high property taxes in Texas, I feel like we really got screwed by the sudden market turn in May and June. I wish I hadn't bothered fixing the house and just sold it like it was in February or March. I may regret this for the rest of my life. A 100-200K difference in sale price I know is life changing for buyers. It is also life changing for me. I feel so sad and anxious now, and like I worked so hard my entire life - and in 3 months it went from I'm finally getting ahead to maybe we are right back where we started 5 years ago.

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/vwnqy9/opendoor_their_estimate_for_my_home_went_down_25/

Opendoor: Their estimate for my home went down 25% in one month. Boise ID area.

zzyzzx says

Huh, are there really people buying homes and relisting them days later for a quick buck in 2022!? Not to mention cost of making a sale?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-homebuyers-across-22-cities-062113892.html

Chinese Homebuyers Across 22 Cities Refuse to Pay Mortgages

1337irr says

Don't waive the inspection, I did, but I barely knew what I was getting into.

I didn't do an inspection on any property I've bought. I've been on hundreds, maybe a thousand inspections as a former broker.

1- If you don't have the money to fix a problem, you shouldn't be buying a house.
2- Inspectors go in justifying their fee and WILL find something wrong even in the best built house
3- Many are referrals and in cahoots with the broker. They're looking to get the seller to fix things, so find problems
4- Houses break anyway. You're going to have to deal with shit. An inspector really doesn't matter.

I've rehabbed two primary homes. We're talking every trade except painting (fuck that). Gist of my comment is don't buy a home if you can't spot the problems yourself. Men should be able to know how to work on a home anyway and not have to call a contractor to fix something trivial. You may need a contractor if time is money for you, but inspectors are one of the worst parts of the RE industry. I'd put HOA's at the top to be honest. Attorneys are dicks and lenders are lazy, but inspections cause more problems then helping.

WookieMan says

1337irr says

Don't waive the inspection, I did, but I barely knew what I was getting into.

I didn't do an inspection on any property I've bought. I've been on hundreds, maybe a thousand inspections as a former broker.

1- If you don't have the money to fix a problem, you shouldn't be buying a house.
2- Inspectors go in justifying their fee and WILL find something wrong even in the best built house
3- Many are referrals and in cahoots with the broker. They're looking to get the seller to fix things, so find problems
4- Houses break anyway. You're going to have to deal with shit. An inspector really doesn't matter.

I've rehabbed two primary homes. We're talking every trade except painting (fuck that). Gist of my comment is don't buy a home if you can't spot the problems yourself. Men should be able to know how to work on a home anyway and not have to call...

Where have you bought real estate? I bought near Waco, TX, the soil is kind of bad for foundations.

https://digg.com/real-estate/link/american-cities-with-highest-year-over-year-median-asking-rent-pending-sales-falling-out-of-contract-Ji2NDMmDhc

Pending Home Sales That Fell Out Of Contract As A % Of All Pending Sales

Florida seems to be dominating this list.