patrick.net

A housing market price drop 'only seen a handful of times' is coming in 2024, Morgan Stanley says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/a-housing-market-price-drop-only-seen-a-handful-of-times-is-coming-in-2024-morgan-stanley-says/ar-AA1kmREm

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12785337/Housing-market-COVID-purchase-return-office.html

The quote below is from the Daily Mail article. We'll see what the data shows for zip codes like Boise, and if this quote is part of a trend and is not anecdotal.

I wonder what other zip codes like Miami Beach may be in similar circumstance, but granted, Miami Beach is a lot larger and has a steady demand of people wanting to live in tropical weather.

Panama City Beach, FL has about 9 months of beach weather (versus about 10.5 months for Miami Beach) and the demand continues for housing in Panama City Beach even if people sell because they have to return to the office in Birmingham, Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, New York, etc.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

A real estate agent in Boise, Idaho, said she had a pair of clients who are selling their home after only one year because their Seattle-based employer is ordering employees back into the office.

That means they are now looking to live closer to the city the left, so the daily commute becomes shoter. It's a prospect some Americans who fled metro areas during the pandemic now face.

The pair will most likely sell their home at a loss because they purchased when prices were peaking in the pandemic aftermath.

'My sellers both work at the same company, which told them they have to be in the office three days a week or they'll lose their jobs. They have six months to make the move. They'll probably have to take a $100,000 loss on their home,' real estate agent Shauna Pendleton said.

ad says

'My sellers both work at the same company, which told them they have to be in the office three days a week or they'll lose their jobs. They have six months to make the move. They'll probably have to take a $100,000 loss on their home,' real estate agent Shauna Pendleton said.

Aww, I'm so sad for them. What they did is not really different, economically, than what illegal immies are doing. Or foreign money buying RE. They helped fuck up a local RE market.

.

I give credit as the mainstream media is reporting about the housing trends: https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/rcna126259

The Daily Mail article in my previous post seems to be the most forthcoming which I'm not surprised since that media outlet is not as much under pressure to toe the line like the US mainstream media is such as CNN and NY Times.

NBC News shows there is still low inventory, about 700,000 active listings compared to 1.2 million active listings in early 2022 and right before the pandemic started.

.

GNL says

ad says

'My sellers both work at the same company, which told them they have to be in the office three days a week or they'll lose their jobs. They have six months to make the move. They'll probably have to take a $100,000 loss on their home,' real estate agent Shauna Pendleton said.

Aww, I'm so sad for them. What they did is not really different, economically, than what illegal immies are doing. Or foreign money buying RE. They helped fuck up a local RE market.

One factor is that these sellers may have sold their homes in San Fran and Seattle areas for a major profit, and then bought down in Boise, Phoenix, etc.

So any loss they have selling in Boise, will be much smaller than the profit or gain they made when they sold their homes in San Fran, Seattle, etc.

But it makes you wonder what they were thinking as far as moving to Boise, etc.

Did they really believe that work from home was going to be permanent ?

Did their companies give the impression (or illusion) that work from home was going to be permanent ?

.

Actually many companies did proclaim that WFH will be allowed as long as people want it. And then sharply reversed back to requiring presense in the office.

Mine allowed it before covid and still allows it. Not for everyone though a lot had to go back full time or part time but they make exceptions for a specific group of us with hard to find skills in order to be competitive.

I definitely got a verbal promise when I hired on but those people are gone now. I'd quit if they tried to make me go back to commifornia. I still see lots of jobs in my area advertised as fully remote.

I do generally show up quarterly - they fly me in and wine and dine me and our team.

One things I've noticed since I left SF 11 years ago (then spent 10 years in SD) is the food seems to have changed a bit. Nobody fucking eats meat anymore in the bay area or what?

just_passing_through says

One things I've noticed since I left SF 11 years ago (then spent 10 years in SD) is the food seems to have changed a bit. Nobody fucking eats meat anymore in the bay area or what?

Indians have killed most meat-based restaurants. Esp in Fremont.

No more Outback. No more Sizzler. No.more Cattlemen's, etc. All shut down.

https://www.reddit.com/r/realtors/comments/184w44u/if_my_house_doesnt_sell_should_i_switch_the/

If my house doesn’t sell, should I switch the listing agent?

I’m having the same problem. I’m trying to sell my bitcoin for 68K but it won’t sell.

PumpingRedheads says

just_passing_through says

One things I've noticed since I left SF 11 years ago (then spent 10 years in SD) is the food seems to have changed a bit. Nobody fucking eats meat anymore in the bay area or what?

Indians have killed most meat-based restaurants. Esp in Fremont.

No more Outback. No more Sizzler. No.more Cattlemen's, etc. All shut down.

I understand as Indians do not eat beef or red meat, and still mostly to a vegetarian diet.

For me, I try to avoid red meat and pork, and stick to chicken, turkey and fish as well as lentils and cannelli beans, and will consume dairy as far as cheese (i.e., pizza), milk and yogurt. I support humane and slaughter free dairy.

https://freefromharm.org/animal-products-and-ethics/slaughter-free-dairy/

.

.

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/realtors/comments/184w44u/if_my_house_doesnt_sell_should_i_switch_the/

If my house doesn’t sell, should I switch the listing agent?

I’m having the same problem. I’m trying to sell my bitcoin for 68K but it won’t sell.

Its all about the right selling price. Too high of a price and you won't get any reasonable offers.

If we sell, we would let them assume our VA mortgage.

We secured the mortgage at a rate of 3% and have about 23 years left on the mortgage with a balance of about $150,000 (and monthly mortgage of $800, monthly hoa fee of $425, and monthly property tax of $125, and monthly HO-3 property insurance of $150).

We would sell for around $300,000 in this down market, as the peak price was around $335,000 back in early 2022.

We would offer to pay up to 2 discount points to lower their mortgage by 0.5%. So if the 30 year mortgage rate is 6%, that would lower it to 5.5%.

So half of their mortgage would be 3% (from the assumable mortgage) and the other half would be at 5.5%, which results in an average mortgage rate of 4.25%.

This is not bad considering that most owners locked in a 30 year mortgage rate around 3.5% when peak prices was set in early 2022.

.

.

ad says

We would sell for around $300,000 in this down market, as the peak price was around $335,000 back in early 2022.

We would offer to pay up to 2 discount points to lower their mortgage by 0.5%. So if the 30 year mortgage rate is 6%, that would lower it to 5.5%.

So half of their mortgage would be 3% (from the assumable mortgage) and the other half would be at 5.5%, which results in an average mortgage rate of 4.25%.

So, about $2,305 with $60,000 down. About $700/month more than you're paying now?

GNL says

ad says

We would sell for around $300,000 in this down market, as the peak price was around $335,000 back in early 2022.

We would offer to pay up to 2 discount points to lower their mortgage by 0.5%. So if the 30 year mortgage rate is 6%, that would lower it to 5.5%.

So half of their mortgage would be 3% (from the assumable mortgage) and the other half would be at 5.5%, which results in an average mortgage rate of 4.25%.

So, about $2,305 with $60,000 down. About $700/month more than you're paying now?

They will be paying about $800 a month for the assumable mortgage (at 3% rate with 23 years remaining)

They will be paying $852 a month for the mortgage of $150,000 at a rate of 5.5%

The closing costs can be rolled into the VA mortgage and a VA mortgage requires 0% down and no PMI (private mortgage insurance)

.

Yes they will be paying $852 more than me for their mortgage since I bought the brand new 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome about 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle at $187,000 in summer 2016 ...

that is because the market price is around $300,000 now for the townhome ... same style townhome in the HOA was selling at a peak price of around $335,000 back in early 2022 ...

again, I bought it for $187,000 back in summer 2016, and its only 2 miles from the white sand and emerald water beaches of the Florida panhandle, the best place on planet Earth...

.

.

I saw Wolfman at Wolfstreet website posted yesterday about housing prices. The median USA housing price is now about 18% below peak price.

If the 30 year mortgage rate settles around 6% next year, then a 20% drop from peak prices would nearly be an sufficient correction.

For every 1% increase in the mortgage rate, there is a 10% drop in price. Assume peak prices were set in early 2022 around a mortgage rate of 3.5%.

Also income has increased since early 2022 in addition to housing prices dropping about 18%.

.

ad says

.

I saw Wolfman at Wolfstreet website posted yesterday about housing prices. The median USA housing price is now about 18% below peak price.

If the 30 year mortgage rate settles around 6% next year, then a 20% drop from peak prices would nearly be an sufficient correction.

For every 1% increase in the mortgage rate, there is a 10% drop in price. Assume peak prices were set in early 2022 around a mortgage rate of 3.5%.

Also income has increased since early 2022 in addition to housing prices dropping about 18%.

.

My shack dropped 22% from the peak (going by "zestimate").

RWSGFY says

My shack dropped 22% from the peak (going by "zestimate").

Where (city or town) is it?

B.A.C.A.H. says

RWSGFY says

My shack dropped 22% from the peak (going by "zestimate").

Where (city or town) is it?

Tri-Valley.

https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/new-real-estate-data-shows-sellers-incurring-more-losses-sales-down/

New real estate data shows sellers incurring more losses, sales down

Patrick says

I think what we are going to find over the next decade or so is that the home ownership rate is going to trend down.

GNL says

I think what we are going to find over the next decade or so is that the home ownership rate is going to trend down.

Housing is down around 18% from peak. Income has gone up at an annual rate of +5% since peak housing prices were set.

Housing prices can remain unchanged while income goes up +3% a year for the next 5 years.

That should be nearly enough for income to catch up with housing costs.

.

ad says

GNL says

I think what we are going to find over the next decade or so is that the home ownership rate is going to trend down.

Housing is down around 18% from peak. Income has gone up at an annual rate of +5% since peak housing prices were set.

Housing prices can remain unchanged while income goes up +3% a year for the next 5 years.

That should be nearly enough for income to catch up with housing costs.

.

I think you'd have to take into account the interest rate hikes also, no? Prices went up so far that, I'm not so sure 18% is gonna get it done with high rates.

GNL says

I think you'd have to take into account the interest rate hikes also, no? Prices went up so far that, I'm not so sure 18% is gonna get it done with high rates.

My post factors in a 30 yr mortgage rate between 4% and 6%.

Also it accounts for opportunity to buy down via discount points the mortgage rate by at most 1%.

DR Horton has been promoting recent sales with mortgage rate buy downs.

.

@ad, serious question: how is it you are so sure rates will end up where you say they will? What brought you to that conclusion?

GNL says

ad, serious question: how is it you are so sure rates will end up where you say they will? What brought you to that conclusion?

I read on Business Insider: "The MBA forecast predicts that 30-year mortgage rates will drop to 6.1% by the end of 2024. While there's some dispute on exactly how much rates will decrease, the general consensus is that mortgage rates will go down in 2024, and they could even end up close to 6% by the end of the year."

But I think the 30 year mortgage rate will likely drop to 5.5% for 2024.

.

ad says

But I think the 30 year mortgage rate will likely drop to 5.5% for 2024.

Being that 2024 is an election year, anything is possible!

SunnyvaleCA says

ad says

But I think the 30 year mortgage rate will likely drop to 5.5% for 2024.

Being that 2024 is an election year, anything is possible!

True, but how do you convince some foreign nations and other large entities to buy US Treasuries? Like the last sale, when no one buys the rates go up, and mortgages follow right along.

excerpted from page A12 of Wall Street Journal November 29, 2023

"Housing Woes Won't Let Them Split Up'
by Clare Ansberry

Divorced and separated couples are facing their worst nightmare: sharing a house with the person they want to get away from.

Behind the uneasy arrangement is the housing market. Mortgage rates are over 7% and average home prices have hit record highs. This means more couples can’t afford to leave their home with its less than 3% mortgage interest rates and set up two different households.

Many don’t tell colleagues about the set up because it seems unthinkable or they are embarrassed. They try to maintain civility for the kids and hold tight until they can afford to buy, rent and furnish two homes.

Danielle and her soon-to be ex-husband, Michael, bought their Mesa, Ariz., area home in July 2022 with a mortgage of about $600,000 that carried an interest rate of 5.62%. Both planned to refinance when mortgage rates fell.

Instead, they are divorcing and saddled with a house that has fallen in value and that neither can afford on their own.

“It’s currently worth less than we paid for it, so we are forced to short sell,” says Danielle, a nurse. The couple, who get along and remain amicable, continued living together in the house for two months, until it became too awkward for them and confusing to their daughters.

Danielle moved out last month after finding an affordable rental on a friend’s Facebook page. Michael, an insurance agent and part-time elementary-school instructional assistant, plans to stay in the home, although they have stopped making payments, until it sells.

“We’re negotiating with the bank to accept a price lower than the house is worth,” says Michael, who plans to live with friends temporarily.

Some people on the brink of divorce are pulling back from actually filing because of uncertainties about jobs, and added expenses of setting up two households, on top of credit-card debt and student loans they might have.

Others are proceeding, but negotiating agreements to defer selling or refinancing the house.

Homes are often a couple’s main asset and deciding what to do with it remains a main issue in divorce. Typically, couples sell the home and split the proceeds or one spouse refinances the mortgage and buys out the other spouse’s interest. But with average mortgage rates at 20-year highs, it can be harder to sell or refinance.

“We are working on what some days feels like the impossible: cohabiting and co-parenting in a 1,200-square-foot home,” says one mom sharing a ranch house in Portland, Ore., with her estranged husband.

It would be a hell of a lot cheaper to make the marriage work. Buuuuut, people be selfish and shit. Divorce imo, is mostly about meism.

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/1863fes/taxes_and_insurance_killing_my_cash_flow/

Taxes and insurance killing my cash flow

I was wondering if others are finding themselves in a similar situation. I don't have great cash flow on my rental in the first place, but my latest tax bill + a particularly large jump in the insurance rates have cut my cash flow. I am seeing a near $100 a month increase between property taxes and insurances rates. it is a SFH. My mortgage was 1169 and my rent 1370. My payments are jumping to nearly $1250. I can't raise rents until May as I just raised them, but I am going to have to go for a full $137 increase (Oregon's max is 10% this year). But this is just moving me back to where I was. I am barely gaining ground.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-price-is-wrong-for-housing/ar-AA1kFGVt

The Price Is Wrong for Housing

Lower rates would make U.S. houses more affordable, just not affordable enough.

Take mortgage rates all the way down to 5%, versus September’s 7.2%, and the Atlanta Fed’s measure shows that housing costs are still nearly 25% beyond affordable. One way to make the numbers work at a 5% mortgage rate would, of course, be to boost household incomes by about 25%. The other would be to drop home prices by about 25%.

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/1863fes/taxes_and_insurance_killing_my_cash_flow/

Taxes and insurance killing my cash flow

I was wondering if others are finding themselves in a similar situation. I don't have great cash flow on my rental in the first place, but my latest tax bill + a particularly large jump in the insurance rates have cut my cash flow. I am seeing a near $100 a month increase between property taxes and insurances rates. it is a SFH. My mortgage was 1169 and my rent 1370. My payments are jumping to nearly $1250. I can't raise rents until May as I just raised them, but I am going to have to go for a full $137 increase (Oregon's max is 10% this year). But this is just moving me back to where I was. I am barely gaining ground.

Still building equity.

zzyzzx says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-price-is-wrong-for-housing/ar-AA1kFGVt

The Price Is Wrong for Housing

Lower rates would make U.S. houses more affordable, just not affordable enough.

Take mortgage rates all the way down to 5%, versus September’s 7.2%, and the Atlanta Fed’s measure shows that housing costs are still nearly 25% beyond affordable. One way to make the numbers work at a 5% mortgage rate would, of course, be to boost household incomes by about 25%. The other would be to drop home prices by about 25%.

Without an increase in building, we will start seeing the homeownership rate decline.

“My mortgage was 1169 and my rent 1370. My payments are jumping to nearly $1250. I can't raise rents until May as I just raised them, but I am going to have to go for a full $137 increase (Oregon's max is 10% this year). But this is just moving me back to where I was. I am barely gaining ground.”

This is why you shouldn’t buy investment real estate with debt unless you can wholly afford the payment on your own without the expected income from said property. These fucks that just buy property on a wing and a prayer expecting it to cash flow have a RISK premium realization problem.

ForcedTQ says

This is why you shouldn’t buy investment real estate with debt unless you can wholly afford the payment on your own without the expected income from said property.

That's the difference between E-man and the schmucks cited in your post.

B.A.C.A.H. says

"Housing Woes Won't Let Them Split Up'
...
Danielle moved out last month after finding an affordable rental ... Michael [...] plans to stay in the home, although they have stopped making payments, until it sells
...
interest rate of 5.62%. Both planned to refinance when mortgage rates fell.

I'm having a hard time seeing this as a housing sob story. Their current interest rate is 5.62% and they are lamenting that neither can buy something else at only 2% higher? The person without the kids could live with roommates — just as I did for my first 7 years out of college. It looks like they are currently underwater, so, even without a divorce, dumping the house on the bank/taxpayers might be a good financial move.

I think the only real takeaway from this is: If you are buying a house, make quite certain that you are going to stay in that house for 10+ years.

Promised my partner not to discuss anything real estate related on any forums until our last flip is closed for this cycle. It’s closed today for $1.05M. https://redf.in/lnJ1AF

We’ll be looking for new opportunities, but deal underwriting will be very stringent.

Made an $8M offer on this 40-unit building in downtown San Jose, but seller is not motivated to sell at this price. 5/1 ARM rate is at 6.5% while bridge loan is at 9% interest only. Tough environment for both buyers and sellers. https://redf.in/JtVkdu

Eman says

Tough environment for both buyers and sellers.

I've been out of the game. Given demographics, we're entering probably one of the best markets ever for buyers. You know how many widows there are going to be holding real estate that they have no fucking clue what to do with it? Not promoting taking advantage of people, but the next 10 years are saucy for people looking to buy and hold, interest rates be damned.

Some are strong, but most women are easily manipulated (legally). They don't want the hassle of what their husbands left them. We're entering a once in a lifetime deal buying phase for the next 5-7 years. Especially multiunit properties. Don't wait for the MLS. Door knock the fuck out of a neighborhood you want to invest in right now. The window is small in my opinion. Might look bad for a year or two, but there's money to be made right now. The hyper focus is on interest rates. Not demographics and people looking to unload and retire.

Eman says

Promised my partner not to discuss anything real estate related on any forums until our last flip is closed for this cycle. It’s closed today for $1.05M. https://redf.in/lnJ1AF

We’ll be looking for new opportunities, but deal underwriting will be very stringent.

Made an $8M offer on this 40-unit building in downtown San Jose, but seller is not motivated to sell at this price. 5/1 ARM rate is at 6.5% while bridge loan is at 9% interest only. Tough environment for both buyers and sellers. https://redf.in/JtVkdu

I thought it was strange you went silent. Stay active here please.

WookieMan says

Some are strong, but most women are easily manipulated (legally). They don't want the hassle of what their husbands left them. We're entering a once in a lifetime deal buying phase for the next 5-7 years. Especially multiunit properties. Don't wait for the MLS. Door knock the fuck out of a neighborhood you want to invest in right now. The window is small in my opinion. Might look bad for a year or two, but there's money to be made right now. The hyper focus is on interest rates. Not demographics and people looking to unload and retire.

I wonder if there is some type of list containing these types of people?