patrick.net

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/everybodys-panic-mode-rich-la-homeowners-rent-mansions-150000-month-amid-turmoil

Los Angeles Mansion Owners Test $150,000 Rents as Sales Slump

Some owners are seeking to lease luxury properties instead of selling as a new mansion tax and entertainment industry turmoil loom over the market. ...
Ken H. Johnson, associate dean at Florida Atlantic University’s College of Business, suggests a broader market trend. He notes that the cost of buying is currently about 8% higher than renting in the L.A. area, indicating a potential future decline in both rental and sale prices.

"As the owner of short-term rental, I think you’re going to get a supply shock in LA," he said. "A lot of people are cashing out of LA now and moving. You’re probably at a peak price."

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zzyzzx says

https://www.investopedia.com/30-year-mortgage-rates-shoot-back-up-returning-to-8-territory-8401542

30-Year Mortgage Rates Shoot Back Up, Returning to 8% Territor

From what I recall, the 30 year mortgage rate usually is about 1.5% higher than the 10 Year Treasury.

And also I recall that most mortgages are paid off on average in 7 years since people will move on average about every 7 years.

The Fed should just let all those mortgage back securities (MBS) to be paid off and just sit back and not buy any new MBS for next 5 years as part of quantitative tightening (QT).

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That's basically what the Fed is doing. Problem is that people aren't selling and paying off their mortgages at the rate the Fed forecast. That's why they are lagging on the QT wrt MBS. Already the Fed has stopped paying the Treasury interest from its bond holdings because they are paying about the same in interest as they are collecting. If they flat out sold some MBS, it would show up as losses for the Fed, and some knuckleheads would be calling for the Treasury to bail out the Fed.

Onvacation says

Prices WAY up in Rio Vista



The $240/month HOA is just adding insult to injury.

Isn't that cheap by California standards?

zzyzzx says

Isn't that cheap by California standards?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2085-Park-Pl-Rio-Vista-CA-94571/300242938_zpid/
$435,9002 bd 1,255 sqft
2085 Park Pl, Rio Vista, CA 94571
Price/sqft:$347
Lot:5,001 sqft (good size relative to what other builders are offering)
Estimated monthly cost$3,145
I doubt that it is cheap!

Blue says

$3,145

Now it isn't $2,966 anymore.

Blue says

$435,9002 bd 1,255 sqft
2085 Park Pl, Rio Vista, CA 94571
Price/sqft:$347
Lot:5,001 sqft (good size relative to what other builders are offering)
Estimated monthly cost$3,145
I doubt that it is cheap!

Hmmm, that's a small ownership premium compared to renting.

The ownership premiums here in SJ are insane, like 2x or more the cost of renting. With locked-in stratospheric property taxes.

Blue says

zzyzzx says

Isn't that cheap by California standards?

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2085-Park-Pl-Rio-Vista-CA-94571/300242938_zpid/
$435,9002 bd 1,255 sqft
2085 Park Pl, Rio Vista, CA 94571
Price/sqft:$347
Lot:5,001 sqft (good size relative to what other builders are offering)
Estimated monthly cost$3,145
I doubt that it is cheap!

Zillow says average rent for 3 bedroom home is $2700 in Rio Vista, California

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/rio-vista-ca/?bedrooms=3

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But who the hell wants to live in the Delta?

RedStar says

But who the hell wants to live in the Delta?

Farm workers?

YoY existing home sales down 14.6%. The price only went up 3.4% YoY.

RWSGFY says

RedStar says

But who the hell wants to live in the Delta?

Farm workers?

Long time ago, I remember, one of those gov agency warned to evacuate lot of low lying areas. But more people start moving in!
They must be ready for floods at some point unless they pay food insurance. I suspect there should be mosquito issues around.

Blue says

RWSGFY says

RedStar says

But who the hell wants to live in the Delta?

Farm workers?

Long time ago, I remember, one of those gov agency warned to evacuate lot of low lying areas. But more people start moving in!
They must be ready for floods at some point unless they pay food insurance. I suspect there should be mosquito issues around.

There is a whole town completely flooded out by the returning ancient Tulare lake. Lots of whining and gnashing of the teeth about that last spring.

Then there is this little gem:

Corcoran, one of the largest cities on the lake bed, has a population of around 22,000, but only five of its households participate in the National Flood Insurance Program. Furthermore, the Federal Emergency Management Agency hasn't updated federal flood maps to account for the past decade of subsidence, so many residents in flood zones may not even be aware of the risk they face.

I know, not exactly the location we're talking about, but same issues.

RWSGFY says

RedStar says

But who the hell wants to live in the Delta?

Farm workers?

Not all ag workers are field pickers. All the mechanical and management, etc infrastructure are in the region.

Remember the guest of The State of California, whose death sentence was changed to life? (ie, a lifetime guest), Scott Peterson? He was in fertilizer sales.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12785337/Housing-market-COVID-purchase-return-office.html

A housing market price drop 'only seen a handful of times' is coming in 2024, Morgan Stanley says

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/a-housing-market-price-drop-only-seen-a-handful-of-times-is-coming-in-2024-morgan-stanley-says/ar-AA1kmREm

zzyzzx says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12785337/Housing-market-COVID-purchase-return-office.html

The quote below is from the Daily Mail article. We'll see what the data shows for zip codes like Boise, and if this quote is part of a trend and is not anecdotal.

I wonder what other zip codes like Miami Beach may be in similar circumstance, but granted, Miami Beach is a lot larger and has a steady demand of people wanting to live in tropical weather.

Panama City Beach, FL has about 9 months of beach weather (versus about 10.5 months for Miami Beach) and the demand continues for housing in Panama City Beach even if people sell because they have to return to the office in Birmingham, Atlanta, Charlotte, Nashville, New York, etc.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

A real estate agent in Boise, Idaho, said she had a pair of clients who are selling their home after only one year because their Seattle-based employer is ordering employees back into the office.

That means they are now looking to live closer to the city the left, so the daily commute becomes shoter. It's a prospect some Americans who fled metro areas during the pandemic now face.

The pair will most likely sell their home at a loss because they purchased when prices were peaking in the pandemic aftermath.

'My sellers both work at the same company, which told them they have to be in the office three days a week or they'll lose their jobs. They have six months to make the move. They'll probably have to take a $100,000 loss on their home,' real estate agent Shauna Pendleton said.

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'My sellers both work at the same company, which told them they have to be in the office three days a week or they'll lose their jobs. They have six months to make the move. They'll probably have to take a $100,000 loss on their home,' real estate agent Shauna Pendleton said.

Aww, I'm so sad for them. What they did is not really different, economically, than what illegal immies are doing. Or foreign money buying RE. They helped fuck up a local RE market.

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I give credit as the mainstream media is reporting about the housing trends: https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/rcna126259

The Daily Mail article in my previous post seems to be the most forthcoming which I'm not surprised since that media outlet is not as much under pressure to toe the line like the US mainstream media is such as CNN and NY Times.

NBC News shows there is still low inventory, about 700,000 active listings compared to 1.2 million active listings in early 2022 and right before the pandemic started.

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GNL says

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'My sellers both work at the same company, which told them they have to be in the office three days a week or they'll lose their jobs. They have six months to make the move. They'll probably have to take a $100,000 loss on their home,' real estate agent Shauna Pendleton said.

Aww, I'm so sad for them. What they did is not really different, economically, than what illegal immies are doing. Or foreign money buying RE. They helped fuck up a local RE market.

One factor is that these sellers may have sold their homes in San Fran and Seattle areas for a major profit, and then bought down in Boise, Phoenix, etc.

So any loss they have selling in Boise, will be much smaller than the profit or gain they made when they sold their homes in San Fran, Seattle, etc.

But it makes you wonder what they were thinking as far as moving to Boise, etc.

Did they really believe that work from home was going to be permanent ?

Did their companies give the impression (or illusion) that work from home was going to be permanent ?

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Actually many companies did proclaim that WFH will be allowed as long as people want it. And then sharply reversed back to requiring presense in the office.

Mine allowed it before covid and still allows it. Not for everyone though a lot had to go back full time or part time but they make exceptions for a specific group of us with hard to find skills in order to be competitive.

I definitely got a verbal promise when I hired on but those people are gone now. I'd quit if they tried to make me go back to commifornia. I still see lots of jobs in my area advertised as fully remote.

I do generally show up quarterly - they fly me in and wine and dine me and our team.

One things I've noticed since I left SF 11 years ago (then spent 10 years in SD) is the food seems to have changed a bit. Nobody fucking eats meat anymore in the bay area or what?

just_passing_through says

One things I've noticed since I left SF 11 years ago (then spent 10 years in SD) is the food seems to have changed a bit. Nobody fucking eats meat anymore in the bay area or what?

Indians have killed most meat-based restaurants. Esp in Fremont.

No more Outback. No more Sizzler. No.more Cattlemen's, etc. All shut down.

https://www.reddit.com/r/realtors/comments/184w44u/if_my_house_doesnt_sell_should_i_switch_the/

If my house doesn’t sell, should I switch the listing agent?

I’m having the same problem. I’m trying to sell my bitcoin for 68K but it won’t sell.

PumpingRedheads says

just_passing_through says

One things I've noticed since I left SF 11 years ago (then spent 10 years in SD) is the food seems to have changed a bit. Nobody fucking eats meat anymore in the bay area or what?

Indians have killed most meat-based restaurants. Esp in Fremont.

No more Outback. No more Sizzler. No.more Cattlemen's, etc. All shut down.

I understand as Indians do not eat beef or red meat, and still mostly to a vegetarian diet.

For me, I try to avoid red meat and pork, and stick to chicken, turkey and fish as well as lentils and cannelli beans, and will consume dairy as far as cheese (i.e., pizza), milk and yogurt. I support humane and slaughter free dairy.

https://freefromharm.org/animal-products-and-ethics/slaughter-free-dairy/

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zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/realtors/comments/184w44u/if_my_house_doesnt_sell_should_i_switch_the/

If my house doesn’t sell, should I switch the listing agent?

I’m having the same problem. I’m trying to sell my bitcoin for 68K but it won’t sell.

Its all about the right selling price. Too high of a price and you won't get any reasonable offers.

If we sell, we would let them assume our VA mortgage.

We secured the mortgage at a rate of 3% and have about 23 years left on the mortgage with a balance of about $150,000 (and monthly mortgage of $800, monthly hoa fee of $425, and monthly property tax of $125, and monthly HO-3 property insurance of $150).

We would sell for around $300,000 in this down market, as the peak price was around $335,000 back in early 2022.

We would offer to pay up to 2 discount points to lower their mortgage by 0.5%. So if the 30 year mortgage rate is 6%, that would lower it to 5.5%.

So half of their mortgage would be 3% (from the assumable mortgage) and the other half would be at 5.5%, which results in an average mortgage rate of 4.25%.

This is not bad considering that most owners locked in a 30 year mortgage rate around 3.5% when peak prices was set in early 2022.

.

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ad says

We would sell for around $300,000 in this down market, as the peak price was around $335,000 back in early 2022.

We would offer to pay up to 2 discount points to lower their mortgage by 0.5%. So if the 30 year mortgage rate is 6%, that would lower it to 5.5%.

So half of their mortgage would be 3% (from the assumable mortgage) and the other half would be at 5.5%, which results in an average mortgage rate of 4.25%.

So, about $2,305 with $60,000 down. About $700/month more than you're paying now?

GNL says

ad says

We would sell for around $300,000 in this down market, as the peak price was around $335,000 back in early 2022.

We would offer to pay up to 2 discount points to lower their mortgage by 0.5%. So if the 30 year mortgage rate is 6%, that would lower it to 5.5%.

So half of their mortgage would be 3% (from the assumable mortgage) and the other half would be at 5.5%, which results in an average mortgage rate of 4.25%.

So, about $2,305 with $60,000 down. About $700/month more than you're paying now?

They will be paying about $800 a month for the assumable mortgage (at 3% rate with 23 years remaining)

They will be paying $852 a month for the mortgage of $150,000 at a rate of 5.5%

The closing costs can be rolled into the VA mortgage and a VA mortgage requires 0% down and no PMI (private mortgage insurance)

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Yes they will be paying $852 more than me for their mortgage since I bought the brand new 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome about 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle at $187,000 in summer 2016 ...

that is because the market price is around $300,000 now for the townhome ... same style townhome in the HOA was selling at a peak price of around $335,000 back in early 2022 ...

again, I bought it for $187,000 back in summer 2016, and its only 2 miles from the white sand and emerald water beaches of the Florida panhandle, the best place on planet Earth...

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I saw Wolfman at Wolfstreet website posted yesterday about housing prices. The median USA housing price is now about 18% below peak price.

If the 30 year mortgage rate settles around 6% next year, then a 20% drop from peak prices would nearly be an sufficient correction.

For every 1% increase in the mortgage rate, there is a 10% drop in price. Assume peak prices were set in early 2022 around a mortgage rate of 3.5%.

Also income has increased since early 2022 in addition to housing prices dropping about 18%.

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ad says

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I saw Wolfman at Wolfstreet website posted yesterday about housing prices. The median USA housing price is now about 18% below peak price.

If the 30 year mortgage rate settles around 6% next year, then a 20% drop from peak prices would nearly be an sufficient correction.

For every 1% increase in the mortgage rate, there is a 10% drop in price. Assume peak prices were set in early 2022 around a mortgage rate of 3.5%.

Also income has increased since early 2022 in addition to housing prices dropping about 18%.

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My shack dropped 22% from the peak (going by "zestimate").

RWSGFY says

My shack dropped 22% from the peak (going by "zestimate").

Where (city or town) is it?

B.A.C.A.H. says

RWSGFY says

My shack dropped 22% from the peak (going by "zestimate").

Where (city or town) is it?

Tri-Valley.

https://www.cbsnews.com/detroit/news/new-real-estate-data-shows-sellers-incurring-more-losses-sales-down/

New real estate data shows sellers incurring more losses, sales down

Patrick says

I think what we are going to find over the next decade or so is that the home ownership rate is going to trend down.

GNL says

I think what we are going to find over the next decade or so is that the home ownership rate is going to trend down.

Housing is down around 18% from peak. Income has gone up at an annual rate of +5% since peak housing prices were set.

Housing prices can remain unchanged while income goes up +3% a year for the next 5 years.

That should be nearly enough for income to catch up with housing costs.

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ad says

GNL says

I think what we are going to find over the next decade or so is that the home ownership rate is going to trend down.

Housing is down around 18% from peak. Income has gone up at an annual rate of +5% since peak housing prices were set.

Housing prices can remain unchanged while income goes up +3% a year for the next 5 years.

That should be nearly enough for income to catch up with housing costs.

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I think you'd have to take into account the interest rate hikes also, no? Prices went up so far that, I'm not so sure 18% is gonna get it done with high rates.

GNL says

I think you'd have to take into account the interest rate hikes also, no? Prices went up so far that, I'm not so sure 18% is gonna get it done with high rates.

My post factors in a 30 yr mortgage rate between 4% and 6%.

Also it accounts for opportunity to buy down via discount points the mortgage rate by at most 1%.

DR Horton has been promoting recent sales with mortgage rate buy downs.

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@ad, serious question: how is it you are so sure rates will end up where you say they will? What brought you to that conclusion?