patrick.net

.

Invitation Homes down about 27% from all time high, and DR Horton down about 12% from all time high.

****************
https://www.newsweek.com/housing-market-warning-sign-peter-schiff-low-sales-renting-trend-1863653

As the U.S. housing market grapples with its lowest sales since the mid-1990s, economist Peter Schiff warns of a looming crisis in which homeowners are resorting to renting their properties to retain their existing mortgage in what he calls a deteriorating economy.

With the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reporting a slump in existing home sales and a surge in median sales prices last week, Schiff, on his The Peter Schiff Show podcast, pointed to a potential trend in the real estate market in which homeowners will begin renting out their homes to retain the properties on which they have low mortgage rates versus selling on the open market, which would cause them to take on a new mortgage with a higher interest rate.

AD says

homeowners will begin renting out their homes to retain the properties on which they have low mortgage rates

Renting out a house financed with a homebuyer mortgage used to trigger a balance due clause on that mortgage. Has that changed?

HeadSet says

AD says

homeowners will begin renting out their homes to retain the properties on which they have low mortgage rates

Renting out a house financed with a homebuyer mortgage used to trigger a balance due clause on that mortgage. Has that changed?

How would they find out?

HeadSet says

Renting out a house financed with a homebuyer mortgage used to trigger a balance due clause on that mortgage. Has that changed?

Veteran Affairs allows renting as long as the owner lived in the home such as for a year.

...

AD says

With the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reporting a slump in existing home sales and a surge in median sales prices last week, Schiff, on his The Peter Schiff Show podcast, pointed to a potential trend in the real estate market in which homeowners will begin renting out their homes to retain the properties on which they have low mortgage rates versus selling on the open market, which would cause them to take on a new mortgage with a higher interest rate.

Once the inevitable demographic shift begins - the Boomers becoming infirm or dead due to old age and the need to downsize or have the kids that live several states away inherit - the rental stuff will stop working.

new housing does not necessarily mean correctly built

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/dfw-home-inspector-concerned-about-fast-new-construction/287-47695769-4e06-4c11-9a8b-3c39e4dcbd42

AmericanKulak says

Once the inevitable demographic shift begins - the Boomers becoming infirm or dead due to old age and the need to downsize or have the kids that live several states away inherit - the rental stuff will stop working.

will have to see how this fares as maybe that is my housing starts still remain low compared to 2000 to 2007 ... new homes not going up in states like Illinois, New York and California as much as in Texas and Florida ... a lot of Florida housing like townhomes meant to only last 99 years

this applies to townhomes as well: http://hoa-condoblog.com/EGBlog020121.html

so home supply will be managed to match demand and demographic forecasts

.....

GNL says

How would they find out?

And: Why would they give a shit? As long as you meet their payments.

AD says

HeadSet says

Renting out a house financed with a homebuyer mortgage used to trigger a balance due clause on that mortgage. Has that changed?

Veteran Affairs allows renting as long as the owner lived in the home such as for a year.

...

Currently in Montana at my buddies house who is a vet. He had a house he ended up renting out for years. He lived in it for a couple years. It’s for sure doable. But not my realm of experience.

You want the RE stats? Melody’s got’em.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sskye2Nskc

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

RE stats? Melody’s got’em.

.

Yeah Melody Wright from Housing Wire and her Youtube channel is insightful. I like also Calculated Risk Blog going back to Doris "Tanta" Dungey.

From Housing Wire's website: https://altos.re/r/cecb9e8e-0429-450c-9d55-2a740944b758?data=price_median&segments=true

Slight advantage to home sellers right now as it was last month

.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/01/25/prices-of-new-houses-drop-to-2-year-low/

UkraineIsFucked says

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/01/25/prices-of-new-houses-drop-to-2-year-low/

How can this be true when I keep seeing analysts saying prices are increasing?

GNL says

UkraineIsFucked says

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/01/25/prices-of-new-houses-drop-to-2-year-low/

How can this be true when I keep seeing analysts saying prices are increasing?

It is because these are the prices for "NEW" homes. You see builders are using inferior products compared to what they were using a few years ago, having smaller lot sizes and giving less choices for upgrades. The houses are smaller overall as well.

For "EXISTING" homes, those prices have been going up even after taking into account upgrades, etc.

My bad, I didn't see the word "new".

i think it’ll go back up, they are lowering rates so that debt slave lemmings can get into 30 year shackles again.

NuttBoxer says

$506B went into some people’s pockets. 🚀🚀

Jan 23 (Reuters) - D.R. Horton Inc (DHI.N), opens new tab missed estimates for its first-quarter profit on Tuesday, as it offered higher incentives and cut base price on new homes to spur demand lagging due to higher mortgage rates, sending the U.S. homebuilder's shares down 8.5%.

Among a string of incentives offered by U.S. homebuilders, mortgage rate buydowns - a permanent or temporary interest rate reduction on a home loan - have become popular among customers looking to buy new homes.

The buydowns are, however, adding pressure on the industry's gross margins and offsetting homebuilders' gains from higher sales. D.R. Horton saw roughly 70% of its buyers utilize rate buydowns, up about 10% sequentially.

It expects second-quarter gross margins to remain flat in the range of 22.6% to 23.1%, as near-term incentive levels remain elevated due to "continued affordability challenges," the company said on a post-earnings call with analysts.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-homebuiler-dr-horton-raises-full-year-home-sales-forecast-2024-01-23/

22.6-23.1% profit margin on new construction is solid.

At this point, take the cash and apply it to the down payment. No point of buying down rates. The Fed’s dot plot projects at least 3 cuts this year and a few more cuts next year while WallStreet expects 5-6 rate cuts this year. That’s what I would do if I were in the market for a new house.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

D.R. Horton Inc (DHI.N)

Just looking at the steady growth in equity and in revenue for DR Horton makes it seem like a safe long term hold, especially since its PE is 10.
.



.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

debt slave lemmings can get into 30 year shackles again.

Those 30 year shackles make the sweet sounds of freedom.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

You want the RE stats? Melody’s got’em.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sskye2Nskc

Surprising she only has 10k subscribers. She’s right on 2 points. The job market is not as rosy as the reported number shown it to be especially for the Bay Area. Second, it’s not that rent is “dropping”, but it’s stopped accelerating. Housing will come into balance at 5% mortgage rate….in line with what AD has been predicting

Still watching to the rest

She thinks consumers will get tapped out in 2025. I’m shocked that they’re not tapped out at the moment. Everything is expensive. Tips are getting out of control.

I recently spent $40 for 2 sandwiches at a simple takeout sandwich shop in McLean Virginia. Yesterday, I stopped in Arlington Virginia for a slice of pizza ($6 +tip) and saw that 1 steak and cheese sub was $26 +tip.

Hallelujah to Prop 13. Hallelujah to Howard Jarvis. 🚀🚀

gabbar says

Those 30 year shackles make the sweet sounds of freedom.

I've decided to pay mine off. I've looked into and indeed if there is a catastrophic financial melt down I will lose my houses. I'm putting that at low probability but given that bankers and the uber wealthy have changed laws to make it quicker (instant) and easier to confiscate my financed assets over the past decade it's a real possibility. If the banks are all shut down, lost my $ then I won't be able to pay the mortgages.

I don't believe people with guns would show up at my door the next day to kick me out - but instantly I won't own them and a process will begin.

Hell, they (Federal Govt) already (I think illegally) took away my right to kick out non-paying renters during the pandemic. Wasn't an issue for mine but it looked very bad in California.

I just don't trust these fuckers and I'll have enough to re-invest and re-build after I pay those off this year.

Rumors I've heard is that if it happens, there may be an offer to let you keep your asset(s) if you allow the BIS and fuckers like that to 'tokenize' my property and switch to a CDBC. Then they can yank my property programmatically if I say/do the 'wrong things'.

What I know for sure is if it happens, they don't want my fiat anyway. They want my assets.

Plus two mortgage statements are LATE! It's the 28th and my payment is due on the 1st. So I'm starting with US Bank. Assholes.

All in paying what's left of these is peanuts anyway for most people. In particular anyone from the bay area. It's about what a cash payment would be for a new(ish) 2000 sq/ft SFH in San Antonio. Houses here are cheap. 300-350K.

Eman says

Second, it’s not that rent is “dropping”, but it’s stopped accelerating. Housing will come into balance at 5% mortgage rate….in line with what AD has been predicting

Eman, I was suggesting that the 30 yr mortgage rate would steady around 5.5% by end of 2024

Exactly as far as economy and job market not as rosy as the Democrats and mainstream media are propagating

I can even tell you in the Florida panhandle that it is harder to get a job now based on what intel I've gotten such as friends from the local chamber of commerce

And they are building apartments and townhomes at a very fast rate here, so that should help as far as housing supply

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/32407

Very Respectfully,
AD

**********

Eman says

Hallelujah to Prop 13. Hallelujah to Howard Jarvis. 🚀🚀

Show it to Justice Arthur Engoron. How it looks to him?

gabbar says

There is free market, in theory. Manipulation of interest rates is an implicit government function.

No, it's not. Manipulation is the function of communist and fascist governments, and it's not our government, well what you recognize as "our government" that sets interest rates. It's the Federal Reserve, which makes it the government.

There should be no central bank. We've been in 100 years of war, because we've had the fucking Federal Reserve for 100 years.

* Orlando and Tampa, the Florida markets with the biggest COVID jump, only moved up 3-4% in all 2023

* Slighty over 4M in inventory moved nationally in the whole of last year

* Lowest transactions since 1995, when the US population was 27% smaller.

* US Median Home price is north of $400k, or about 6X the median household income.

* National home insurance rates are skyrocketing, screwing with Investor margins and those of new buyers.

* Mass layoffs are coming in 2024.

* The demographic crunch is coming - almost all Boomers, and all the highest birth years, are now in Soc Sec/Medicare age.

* Senior divorce jumps up yet again - highest risk is just prior to retirement.

* Do you want to buy at the top of the market?

* PUH-LEASE, lower rates and buy MBS, Real Estate Specialist Financial Group begs Fed Puh-leeeeeese! This article sure don't sound as confident as the Realwhores
https://archive.is/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/opinion/federal-reserve-housing-market.html

AD says

AmericanKulak says

Once the inevitable demographic shift begins - the Boomers becoming infirm or dead due to old age and the need to downsize or have the kids that live several states away inherit - the rental stuff will stop working.

will have to see how this fares as maybe that is my housing starts still remain low compared to 2000 to 2007 ... new homes not going up in states like Illinois, New York and California as much as in Texas and Florida ... a lot of Florida housing like townhomes meant to only last 99 years

this applies to townhomes as well: http://hoa-condoblog.com/EGBlog020121.html

so home supply will be managed to match demand and demographic forecasts

.....

Whoa

Eman says

Hallelujah to Prop 13. Hallelujah to Howard Jarvis. 🚀🚀

These fat rich leaches are the worst than highway robbers who is living on bottom victims of the Ponzi scheme 1978 Prop 13 and still playing "victim" card!! These mega leaches call them selves "conservatives" paying for every $1 for generations vs the neighbor who bought recently and lives in a similar shack potentially pays more than $100 property tax based on the current purchase price.
https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/

Blue says

Eman says

Hallelujah to Prop 13. Hallelujah to Howard Jarvis. 🚀🚀

These fat rich leaches are the worst than highway robbers who is living on bottom victims of the Ponzi scheme 1978 Prop 13 and still playing "victim" card!! These mega leaches call them selves "conservatives" paying for every $1 for generations vs the neighbor who bought recently and lives in a similar shack potentially pays more than $100 property tax based on the current purchase price.
https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/

There's no point in raising taxes for others.

The government will just squander the money. Believe me. There's no work on infrastructure here. You may as well abolish property taxes altogether.

Blue says

Eman says

Hallelujah to Prop 13. Hallelujah to Howard Jarvis. 🚀🚀

These fat rich leaches are the worst than highway robbers who is living on bottom victims of the Ponzi scheme 1978 Prop 13 and still playing "victim" card!! These mega leaches call them selves "conservatives" paying for every $1 for generations vs the neighbor who bought recently and lives in a similar shack potentially pays more than $100 property tax based on the current purchase price.
https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/

I asked you this question before, and it went unanswered. Are you open to reset all tax basis to 1978 levels and eliminate Prop 13? If yes, do something about it and let’s go. If not, stop giving more money to the politicians. California does not have a revenue issue. It has spending issue. If spending is not rectified, it’s a bottomless pit. No amount of money will be enough.

@Blue,

As a real estate investor, I see government agencies imposed fees, taxes and special assessments on top of property taxes while you’re running your mouth for higher taxes without offering alternative solutions. You’re a taker, not me. Take, take, take is all you’re proposing.

Blue says

Eman says

Hallelujah to Prop 13. Hallelujah to Howard Jarvis. 🚀🚀

These fat rich leaches are the worst than highway robbers who is living on bottom victims of the Ponzi scheme 1978 Prop 13 and still playing "victim" card!! These mega leaches call them selves "conservatives" paying for every $1 for generations vs the neighbor who bought recently and lives in a similar shack potentially pays more than $100 property tax based on the current purchase price.
https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/

And by the way, it’s leeches, not leaches. Leaches have a different meaning. English is my second language, but I know the difference. I came to this country without speaking the language and started from the bottom up with ESL 1.

I was just thinking today about how many groups in America are treated, taxed, regulated etc differently. Americans are not treated equally, at all, by this government. It's amazing how different. It will only get worse.

Eman says

I asked you this question before, and it went unanswered. Are you open to reset all tax basis to 1978 levels and eliminate Prop 13? If yes, do something about it and let’s go. If not, stop giving more money to the politicians. California does not have a revenue issue. It has spending issue. If spending is not rectified, it’s a bottomless pit. No amount of money will be enough.

You are consistently showing you have nigher basic match skills nor basic common sense!
1. State must collect property tax at certain percentage like every other state in US based on the current market price NOT the f*king purchase price to stuck tax at stone age for rich commie CA with 1978 Prop 13
2. Property tax rate is decided by state/people/or their elected representatives - this nothing to do with (1)
Prop 13 mega leeches (thanks for your spelling) like you use (2) as "high" taxes ;) (playing victim card, in reality you pay nothing with(1)) and come with flawed obfuscate logic and wanted to keep (1) to pay extremely low tax based on purchase price, lets say pay tax on your $400k purchase instead of current $4mil market value. Your are not calling for people who pay $4mil market purchase today to pay taxed based on 1978 price which is zero statistically speaking.
Also your know just for calling $0 property taxes ;) is another sick joke which is impractical as (that deficit must be collected in income and/or sales taxes) in many states including CA, again to keep (1).