patrick.net

Eman says

Second, it’s not that rent is “dropping”, but it’s stopped accelerating. Housing will come into balance at 5% mortgage rate….in line with what AD has been predicting

Eman, I was suggesting that the 30 yr mortgage rate would steady around 5.5% by end of 2024

Exactly as far as economy and job market not as rosy as the Democrats and mainstream media are propagating

I can even tell you in the Florida panhandle that it is harder to get a job now based on what intel I've gotten such as friends from the local chamber of commerce

And they are building apartments and townhomes at a very fast rate here, so that should help as far as housing supply

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/32407

Very Respectfully,
AD

**********

Eman says

Hallelujah to Prop 13. Hallelujah to Howard Jarvis. 🚀🚀

Show it to Justice Arthur Engoron. How it looks to him?

gabbar says

There is free market, in theory. Manipulation of interest rates is an implicit government function.

No, it's not. Manipulation is the function of communist and fascist governments, and it's not our government, well what you recognize as "our government" that sets interest rates. It's the Federal Reserve, which makes it the government.

There should be no central bank. We've been in 100 years of war, because we've had the fucking Federal Reserve for 100 years.

* Orlando and Tampa, the Florida markets with the biggest COVID jump, only moved up 3-4% in all 2023

* Slighty over 4M in inventory moved nationally in the whole of last year

* Lowest transactions since 1995, when the US population was 27% smaller.

* US Median Home price is north of $400k, or about 6X the median household income.

* National home insurance rates are skyrocketing, screwing with Investor margins and those of new buyers.

* Mass layoffs are coming in 2024.

* The demographic crunch is coming - almost all Boomers, and all the highest birth years, are now in Soc Sec/Medicare age.

* Senior divorce jumps up yet again - highest risk is just prior to retirement.

* Do you want to buy at the top of the market?

* PUH-LEASE, lower rates and buy MBS, Real Estate Specialist Financial Group begs Fed Puh-leeeeeese! This article sure don't sound as confident as the Realwhores
https://archive.is/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/14/opinion/federal-reserve-housing-market.html

AD says

AmericanKulak says

Once the inevitable demographic shift begins - the Boomers becoming infirm or dead due to old age and the need to downsize or have the kids that live several states away inherit - the rental stuff will stop working.

will have to see how this fares as maybe that is my housing starts still remain low compared to 2000 to 2007 ... new homes not going up in states like Illinois, New York and California as much as in Texas and Florida ... a lot of Florida housing like townhomes meant to only last 99 years

this applies to townhomes as well: http://hoa-condoblog.com/EGBlog020121.html

so home supply will be managed to match demand and demographic forecasts

.....

Whoa

Eman says

Hallelujah to Prop 13. Hallelujah to Howard Jarvis. 🚀🚀

These fat rich leaches are the worst than highway robbers who is living on bottom victims of the Ponzi scheme 1978 Prop 13 and still playing "victim" card!! These mega leaches call them selves "conservatives" paying for every $1 for generations vs the neighbor who bought recently and lives in a similar shack potentially pays more than $100 property tax based on the current purchase price.
https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/

Blue says

Eman says

Hallelujah to Prop 13. Hallelujah to Howard Jarvis. 🚀🚀

These fat rich leaches are the worst than highway robbers who is living on bottom victims of the Ponzi scheme 1978 Prop 13 and still playing "victim" card!! These mega leaches call them selves "conservatives" paying for every $1 for generations vs the neighbor who bought recently and lives in a similar shack potentially pays more than $100 property tax based on the current purchase price.
https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/

There's no point in raising taxes for others.

The government will just squander the money. Believe me. There's no work on infrastructure here. You may as well abolish property taxes altogether.

Blue says

Eman says

Hallelujah to Prop 13. Hallelujah to Howard Jarvis. 🚀🚀

These fat rich leaches are the worst than highway robbers who is living on bottom victims of the Ponzi scheme 1978 Prop 13 and still playing "victim" card!! These mega leaches call them selves "conservatives" paying for every $1 for generations vs the neighbor who bought recently and lives in a similar shack potentially pays more than $100 property tax based on the current purchase price.
https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/

I asked you this question before, and it went unanswered. Are you open to reset all tax basis to 1978 levels and eliminate Prop 13? If yes, do something about it and let’s go. If not, stop giving more money to the politicians. California does not have a revenue issue. It has spending issue. If spending is not rectified, it’s a bottomless pit. No amount of money will be enough.

@Blue,

As a real estate investor, I see government agencies imposed fees, taxes and special assessments on top of property taxes while you’re running your mouth for higher taxes without offering alternative solutions. You’re a taker, not me. Take, take, take is all you’re proposing.

Blue says

Eman says

Hallelujah to Prop 13. Hallelujah to Howard Jarvis. 🚀🚀

These fat rich leaches are the worst than highway robbers who is living on bottom victims of the Ponzi scheme 1978 Prop 13 and still playing "victim" card!! These mega leaches call them selves "conservatives" paying for every $1 for generations vs the neighbor who bought recently and lives in a similar shack potentially pays more than $100 property tax based on the current purchase price.
https://www.taxfairnessproject.org/

And by the way, it’s leeches, not leaches. Leaches have a different meaning. English is my second language, but I know the difference. I came to this country without speaking the language and started from the bottom up with ESL 1.

I was just thinking today about how many groups in America are treated, taxed, regulated etc differently. Americans are not treated equally, at all, by this government. It's amazing how different. It will only get worse.

Eman says

I asked you this question before, and it went unanswered. Are you open to reset all tax basis to 1978 levels and eliminate Prop 13? If yes, do something about it and let’s go. If not, stop giving more money to the politicians. California does not have a revenue issue. It has spending issue. If spending is not rectified, it’s a bottomless pit. No amount of money will be enough.

You are consistently showing you have nigher basic match skills nor basic common sense!
1. State must collect property tax at certain percentage like every other state in US based on the current market price NOT the f*king purchase price to stuck tax at stone age for rich commie CA with 1978 Prop 13
2. Property tax rate is decided by state/people/or their elected representatives - this nothing to do with (1)
Prop 13 mega leeches (thanks for your spelling) like you use (2) as "high" taxes ;) (playing victim card, in reality you pay nothing with(1)) and come with flawed obfuscate logic and wanted to keep (1) to pay extremely low tax based on purchase price, lets say pay tax on your $400k purchase instead of current $4mil market value. Your are not calling for people who pay $4mil market purchase today to pay taxed based on 1978 price which is zero statistically speaking.
Also your know just for calling $0 property taxes ;) is another sick joke which is impractical as (that deficit must be collected in income and/or sales taxes) in many states including CA, again to keep (1).

Eman says

you’re running your mouth for higher taxes without offering alternative solutions.

Show me one place where did I ask for "higher taxes"!
Oh! I see you pay almost nothing for properties purchased years back under 1978 Prop 13 tax based on purchase price and worries that get-rid of Prop 13 put you in line with every peasant/victim who buy at bottom of Ponzy pyramid scheme of taxes based on today's market price! which you call "higher taxes" ;)
Look at message 4188 to understand your rich commie flawed logic.

@Blue,

I will give you one last chance to respond. If you think Prop 13 is the holy grail, reset all taxes including the state sales tax, income tax, local tax, utility taxes and whatever else taxes back to 1978 level and get rid of Prop 13. Let’s go. That’s a fair proposal IMO.

I never call for $0 property taxes, and I never play the victim card. I’m not a victim. Stop making 💩 up.

Why I tend to side with the conservatives.

1) I’m a Buddhist. I’m anti-abortion unless the pregnancy endangers the mom.

2) I’m pro gun as the 2nd amendment stated “the right to keep and bear arms”. When you enter someone’s house, or live in another person’s country, you have to respect their rules. Also, what recently happened in Palestine and Israel reinforced this “right to keep and bear arms”. How does gun control work in Oakland by the way?

3) and the woke 💩 that’s been happening. Did Penny just admit that trans and queer commit sexual crimes against children. I agree 100%. Those who commit sexual crimes against children should be executed.



4) free speech. Everyone has an opinion so please respect other people’s opinions. Don’t go all ape 💩 when people support Trump, or put a Trump sticker on their car or a sign on their house.

Just to name a few issues that are dear to me. Climate change and all that BS, I don’t care about.

It doesn't matter whether taxes are squandered or not, that is a different issue. Prop 13 should be abolished while property taxes for everyone lowered by an equal amount so the state doest get more

Blue says

Eman says

you’re running your mouth for higher taxes without offering alternative solutions.

Show me one place where did I ask for "higher taxes"!
Oh! I see you pay almost nothing for properties purchased years back under 1978 Prop 13 tax based on purchase price and worries that get-rid of Prop 13 put you in line with every peasant/victim who buy at bottom of Ponzy pyramid scheme of taxes based on today's market price! which you call "higher taxes" ;)
Look at message 4188 to understand your rich commie flawed logic.

The government has been raising all kinds of taxes, fees and special assessments to make up for the taxes shortfall. I’m fine with abolishing Prop 13, but all other taxes have to be reset too to offset all the extra fees, assessments and taxes have been added on since. Why change the rules in the middle of the game?

Property taxes are our 2nd highest expense after the mortgage. If we abolish Prop 13, rent control must also be abolished, agree? Why cap my rent increase and not cap the property taxes? Rent control housing fees, etc… must also be abolished. Sounds fair?

For us investors, it’s just inputs and outputs. Buy if the numbers make sense. Don’t buy if they don’t pencil out.

There are currently 2 known numbers in the equations. If one is removed (annual property taxes due to Prop 13), the other number must also removed (rent control + associated rent control housing fees). It’s that simple. Investors are doing just fine in other states without Prop 13 and no rent control so I’m sure I’ll do just fine here.

Eman says

I will give you one last chance to respond. If you think Prop 13 is the holy grail, reset all taxes including the state sales tax, income tax, local tax, utility taxes and whatever else taxes back to 1978 level and get rid of Prop 13. Let’s go. That’s a fair proposal IMO.

"I will give you one last chance to respond." - I responded but its you come with your unrelated BS to keep extremely low Prop 13 taxes while every loser paying extremely high taxes to keep CA solvent to benefit not only just illegals but people like you and your massive gains intact! This discussion is about ethics, policy and focus on consequences of highly uneven taxes of Prop 13 not to keep anyone on hook and pay taxes!

Asking again - when and where did I say "Prop 13 is the holy grail," - when I have been asking the opposite to abolish! Is this part of your commie flawed logic to support point (1) in message (4187) You are simply lying, you accuse but failed to show me any of my relevant messages to support your accusations! Everyone is different, looks like you have very poor ethics.

You also proved that you are a literal thinker and lack of critical thinking skills. You think, repealing 1978 Prop 13 will be the end of CA!! You are giving a dire picture as if CA can not even survive without Prop 13.

You said on a different thread, came from a commie country and acts like perfect rich commie to keep Prop 13 to pay extremely low property taxes for you BUT not for others just like in any commie country hierarchy.
All I have been asking was uniform taxes for all just like rest of the USA. I do know by now, like I said, you oppose this in reality with your logic message 4188 (2) to keep commie Prop 13 (1). I rest my case.

@Blue,

There are 2 known parameters on an equation. Remove both or remove none to keep the equation balance. Your proposal is take, take and take.

Does your uniform taxes including sales tax, income tax, local tax and all other taxes, or only property taxes? Do you own properties and know what else are included on the property tax bills?

This was the last property I bought in 2019. I paid $720k for the property, and the county assessor assessed it at $780k. I appealed, but he gave me a middle finger. Currently assessed at $820k with $15.3k/year in property taxes? How is that 1% or even 1.25%?

Is it fair to cap my annual rent increase to 3% while inflation is running at 9% while not capping my property taxes? It’s a waste of time talking to folks who don’t deal with reality.

.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/29/economy/why-boomers-are-not-moving-out-of-their-big-homes/index.html

Boomers are not moving out of their big homes. Here’s why

.

AD says

Boomers are not moving out of their big homes. Here’s why

They will when they can't use the 2nd floor due to knee problems, or when one of them has to go to a sub-acute.

In the example, the homeowners themselves state their family is not in the area, so they don't need to buy an expensive CA condo. They can go to Texas or anywhere else and the tax-exempt gain is more than enough for them to buy a new, one story or condo just about anywhere in the Union outside of coastal CA with a million to spare WITH the current cap gains rate and $500k exemption.

It's very tough for me to boo hoo over people who brought for $150k 30 years ago getting a million and a half in appreciation, of which "Half a million" is excluded from Cap Gains.

AD says

.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/29/economy/why-boomers-are-not-moving-out-of-their-big-homes/index.html

Boomers are not moving out of their big homes. Here’s why

.

I know a couple (not boomers) who rented out their Bay Area house and are renting a decently-sized condo in Miami and breaking even. They hired a property manager so no long-distance landlording shit there. They moved for work, but it seems like a perfectly workable scenario for retired boomers.

AmericanKulak says

They will when they can't use the 2nd floor due to knee problems, or when one of them has to go to a sub-acute.

the key as far as our present and future economy is to innovate and improvise

even if it is a split stair, then get a stair lift

open house up to have a younger person to live in the house as a part time care taker .... or get a company that sends a care giver to the house a couple of times a week

use technology like Wyze or Blink cameras to keep an eye on the elderly residents and have them wear tracking devices like smart watches

.

The housing madness continues. The housing affordability index is even worse now compared to the 2006 housing bubble.



https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1752343180178051249?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

I notice the word “crashing” has been abused all these years to get clicks. I guess it’s all perspective.



https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1752150729081442340?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

This author believes the housing market is returning to normal. Apparently, a reader disagreed.

This cycle has been interesting. I thought the housing market peaked in 2018 so who am I to say if it’s normal or not. I just know I’m not a house buyer in this market. Will continue to stay as an investor and only buy deals where the numbers pencil out.

Eman says

This author believes the housing market is returning to normal. Apparently, a reader disagreed.

This cycle has been interesting. I thought the housing market peaked in 2018 so who am I to say if it’s normal or not. I just know I’m not a house buyer in this market. Will continue to stay as an investor and only buy deals where the numbers pencil out.

Really? Why no dates on the chart?

Irrefutable Evidence the Housing Crash is imminent:

Eman says

This author believes the housing market is returning to normal. Apparently, a reader disagreed.

Mister Eman, Worst case is the median price floor or bottom likely will be $360,000, which is about 25% below all time high of $480,000. It accounts for the 30 year mortgage rate steadying at 6%, not 5.5%. The 30 year mortgage rate was around 3.5% a couple of months before peak housing prices in early 2022. Housing prices should drop 10% for every 1% increase in the 30 year mortgage rate (based on mortgage affordability standards).
Income hopefully will catch up with housing costs since housing prices peaked around early 2022. So the bottom or floor of $360,000 is overly pessimistic especially for medium to high growth zip codes.
.



.

I don’t know if it’s a good or bad idea to cut rates ASAP. Time will tell.



https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1752397638836850847?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

Eman says

I don’t know if it’s a good or bad idea to cut rates ASAP. Time will tell.



https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1752397638836850847?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

Here we go again.

Wasn't it the same motivation that created the previous bubble?

They want rates cut because the economy is shedding jobs that are middle class. The only major job growth is in low wage jobs.

They figure it will cause another asset-inflation cycle and a repeat of 2023 for the stock market is going to help Biden.

And they think we'll get a repeat of a hiring boom by the major corporations since interest rates are lower.

Economic conditions are delicate for Biden because you could have a major increase in unemployment within a couple of months of the election.

Timing is working against Biden since the stock market is over bought from 2023, and unemployment cannot remain this low.
.

GNL says

Eman says

This author believes the housing market is returning to normal. Apparently, a reader disagreed.

This cycle has been interesting. I thought the housing market peaked in 2018 so who am I to say if it’s normal or not. I just know I’m not a house buyer in this market. Will continue to stay as an investor and only buy deals where the numbers pencil out.

Really? Why no dates on the chart?

Good point. I guess early 2020 would be the start of the graph. Peak price was February 2022. "Return to Normal" (which has a rectangle drawn around it) is currently were housing market is. Perhaps despair is this year much to the dismay and disapproval of the Democrats (unless it drops off right after the election).

...

AD says

Perhaps despair is this year much to the dismay and disapproval of the Democrats (unless it drops off right after the election).

Despair over what?

AD says

GNL says

Eman says

This author believes the housing market is returning to normal. Apparently, a reader disagreed.

This cycle has been interesting. I thought the housing market peaked in 2018 so who am I to say if it’s normal or not. I just know I’m not a house buyer in this market. Will continue to stay as an investor and only buy deals where the numbers pencil out.

Really? Why no dates on the chart?

Good point. I guess early 2020 would be the start of the graph. Peak price was February 2022. "Return to Normal" (which has a rectangle drawn around it) is currently were housing market is. Perhaps despair is this year much to the dismay and disapproval of the Democrats (unless it drops off right after the election).

...

That’s correct. The reader believes the housing market is on the verge of collapsing while the author believes it’s “return to normal”. The chart displays the sequence of how a bubble will likely play out.

Wow, Fed’s Statement Pushes Back against Rate-Cut Mania and End-of-QT Mania, Holds Rates at 5.50% Top of Range, QT to Continue as Planned

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/01/31/wow-feds-statement-pushes-back-against-rate-cut-mania-and-end-of-qt-mania-holds-rates-at-5-50-top-of-range-qt-to-continue-as-planned/

Not a surprise to me. I called it!

GNL says

AD says

Perhaps despair is this year much to the dismay and disapproval of the Democrats (unless it drops off right after the election).

Despair over what?

Refer to Eman's housing bubble chart, and "despair" is the region where housing prices bottom. Maybe prices bottom by late summer 2024, so another 10% drop at least in housing prices from current price level.

.