patrick.net

gabbar says

Patrick says

He predicted that within the next few years, housing prices could drop up to 25 percent, and that they will begin to decline in early 2023, which could see double-digit drops in prices.

Early 2023 is when sheet will hit the fan, according to Michael Burry.

What are the chances he's right twice?

https://betterdwelling.com/city/toronto/toronto-real-estate-developers-sold-zero-new-single-family-homes-last-month/

Toronto Real Estate Developers Sold Zero New Single-Family Homes Last Month

https://www.redfin.com/news/metros-recession-risk-housing-downturn-2022/

Pandemic Homebuying Hotspots With Steep Price Increases Most Susceptible to Housing Downturn in a Recession

Riverside, Boise, Phoenix and Tampa are among the markets where homeowners stand to lose some of the value they gained over the past two years. Still-affordable Rust Belt metros like Cleveland and Buffalo are most resilient.

zzyzzx says

Riverside, Boise, Phoenix and Tampa are among the markets where homeowners stand to lose some of the value they gained over the past two years.

They went up insane high to begin with. They should come back to normal level.

richwicks says

if a repossessed home was sold above the amount of money owed on it, that amount had to be returned to the previous owner.

True, but a rare circumstance. If the house was worth more than the loan, the owner would have sold it rather than let it be foreclosed. Throwing the keys to the bank happens when the house is not worth what is owed on it.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/zoomtown-rats

Fed rate hike to unleash AVALANCHE of home foreclosures and market drops"
https://www.brighteon.com/1b2255e8-2905-4a98-9af3-1aab13358967
Let the paranoia begin! "Yesterday the Fed hiked the interbank lending rate by 75 basis points (0.75%), which will lead to retail loan rates rising across the board. This is all part of the Fed’s attempt to reel in rising inflation, which the dishonest government claims is at around 9% but the rest of the world already understands to be closer to 20%."

https://archive.ph/f0JuP

Ceffer says

Fed rate hike to unleash AVALANCHE of home foreclosures and market drops"
https://www.brighteon.com/1b2255e8-2905-4a98-9af3-1aab13358967
Let the paranoia begin! "Yesterday the Fed hiked the interbank lending rate by 75 basis points (0.75%), which will lead to retail loan rates rising across the board. This is all part of the Fed’s attempt to reel in rising inflation, which the dishonest government claims is at around 9% but the rest of the world already understands to be closer to 20%."

But @Wookieman says home price declines are unpossible. He used to be a real estate office manager so, I think he knows better than these reporters do.

HeadSet says

True, but a rare circumstance. If the house was worth more than the loan, the owner would have sold it rather than let it be foreclosed. Throwing the keys to the bank happens when the house is not worth what is owed on it.

Very true as this is what happened when housing prices crashed 2008 to 2011 and most homes were underwater (equity was less than outstanding mortgage).

A lot of the underwater homes had 3 year ARMs. Notice you don't see 3 year ARMs but there are 5 year ARMs.

Realtors, take note! Wet pavement suggests wet pussy.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Of course they will take the most they can get. But bidding wars etc are not their fault: it's the buyers' fault for overpaying.

The Freakonomics book (or one of its multiple sequels) had a chapter discussing that real estate agents take longer to sell their own houses compared to selling the houses of clients. The takeaway was that when their own house is on the line, agents take their time and get the highest price.

With that in mind as well as personal observations, I gather that the real estate agents purposefully list low sales prices, get a bunch of anxious buyers interested, and then create a feeding frenzy of over-bidding so as to sell the property at a decent (but not highest) price as quickly as possible. After all, both the buyer's and seller's agent have a vested interest in transacting as quickly as possible, collecting that juicy commission, and moving on to the next transaction. "Bidding wars" achieves this very well.

Here in my part of Sunnyvale, when things are really hopping, a property goes for sale listed $200k low, has open house on weekend (this is just for agents to find new clients, as the real viewing is with an agent who has the combination to the lock box for private showing), bids are taken for the next few days, and the house sells "$200k over asking" that same week. $25k commissions for both agents thank you very much! Most agents spend most of their time trying to find new clients, not actually doing useful work.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Realtors, take note! Wet pavement suggests

This is one of the new techniques to fool new buyer as if it is next to a pond!

zzyzzx says

This listing makes no sense. Buy $400k and relish it for $412k? That doesn’t even cover the commissions and closing costs. Where’s the profit?

ad says

HeadSet says

True, but a rare circumstance. If the house was worth more than the loan, the owner would have sold it rather than let it be foreclosed. Throwing the keys to the bank happens when the house is not worth what is owed on it.

Very true as this is what happened when housing prices crashed 2008 to 2011 and most homes were underwater (equity was less than outstanding mortgage).

A lot of the underwater homes had 3 year ARMs. Notice you don't see 3 year ARMs but there are 5 year ARMs.

Banks are a lot smarter now unlike the previous housing bubble. 3/1 ARMs, 5/1 ARMs, or 7/1 ARMs are no longer being underwritten like before. Banks use a much higher qualifying rate to underwrite the loans. They want to be sure the buyers are well qualified in a higher interest rate environment.

With the way these loans are currently being underwritten, I guess banks expect interest rates will come back down in the coming years. Here’s something we recently got from our lender.

Eman says

This listing makes no sense. Buy $400k and relish it for $412k? That doesn’t even cover the commissions and closing costs. Where’s the profit?

It's probably an Opendoor listing.

Remember when they couldn't give Florida urban condos away.

I agree that there is no way they are now worth double, but it's also true that DeSantis has greatly increased the value of Florida real estate as a refuge from the evil of wokeness.

If the housing market remains stagnant, I doubt that the National Association of Realtors will sit idle. The fucking realtors and mortgage officers need to make money too.

gabbar says

@Wookieman says declining home prices are unpossible.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Realtors, take note! Wet pavement suggests wet pussy.

Yes, but that wet pavement leads to a 3 gar garage.....

This is in one of the nice parts of Baltimore City:

Booger says

This is in one of the nice parts of Baltimore City:

There is only 1 nice part of Baltimore City. The Inner Harbor. And even that ain't so nice since both Stadiums are right there also.

Fells Point has some nice restaurants. And what other city has a Bromo-Seltzer clock tower?

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Fells Point has some nice restaurants. And what other city has a Bromo-Seltzer clock tower?

My brother had a gun pulled on him on the dance floor in Fells Point. If you remember Hammer Jacks (best f'ing bar I've ever been to), I witnessed a girl hit a guy over the head with a bottle of beer. The top of his whole scalp peeled down over his face. Damn crazy ass place. Girls routinely got on the bar and took their tops off jiggling their titties for all to see.

Patrick says

He predicted that within the next few years, housing prices could drop up to 25 percent, and that they will begin to decline in early 2023, which could see double-digit drops in prices.

Disagree. Everyone has substantial equity if they bought in the last 5 years or back to 2010ish. We don't have shit loans to unqualified borrowers. People are holding/living in their homes longer. It will stagnate for sure, but I don't see drops until spec building picks up. Might be happening in some spots of the country. Not here.

There's no quality labor. Building is at maybe 1/10th of what it was during the boom & bust. A 25% crash in prices is massive. Just because we lived through a once in a lifetime event doesn't mean it will happen again. Coastal regions are off my radar though. Flyover country is fine outside of hipster hot pockets. Not a chance I lose $50k on my home over the next 2-3 years without a civil war or some other geopolitical event.

WookieMan says

We don't have shit loans to unqualified borrowers.

ARM's and HELOC's are back. Supposedly 27% of homeowners have a HELOC...

WookieMan says

Just because we lived through a once in a lifetime

More than once in my lifetime already, and I'm 56.

WookieMan says

A 25% crash in prices is massive. Just because we lived through a once in a lifetime event doesn't mean it will happen again.

25% decline is massive for real estate if you are thinking of a decline as a percentage from the top. But if it's just a correction for the recent 40% gain, it'll only be setting prices back to what they were before the covid. In my area, it won't even be going back to pre-covid prices.

I just found out that 2 of my friends who work in IT industry have purchased rental properties in 2019 (1 purchased 8 single family homes and the other bought 2 single family homes) as side hustles. They are renting it out to students and other IT employees. The purchases were made in Austin, TX and Columbus, OH.

So, is this a sound and profitable side hustle?

gabbar says

I just found out that 2 of my friends who work in IT industry have purchased rental properties in 2019 (1 purchased 8 single family homes and the other bought 2 single family homes) as side hustles. They are renting it out to students and other IT employees. The purchases were made in Austin, TX and Columbus, OH.

So, is this a sound and profitable side hustle?

Depends on their cost basis and management style. If the revenue is not covering costs, then most likely, no. Ask them.

Generally, real estate investing is very tax efficient, it's better than a W-2 at times with the deductions.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-24/over-8-million-americans-are-late-on-rents-as-prices-increase

More Than 8 Million Americans Are Late on Rent as Prices Increase

zzyzzx says

More Than 8 Million Americans Are Late on Rent as Prices Increase