patrick.net

Seems plausible. This country is so fucked politically.

GNL says

The entire US monetary and financial system depends on overpriced real estate and that system is going fight like a meth-crazed army of drooling red-eyed Orcs to defend its goblin infested empire,

How could this be! We were told by the RE 'experts' on PatNet...

UkraineIsFucked says

Hey PatNet Fed Rate Cut Experts!

WTF ya gonna do now?



https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/29/worst-monthly-spike-of-core-services-pce-inflation-in-22-years-and-not-just-housing-powells-gonna-have-another-cow/

UkraineIsFucked says

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/29/worst-monthly-spike-of-core-services-pce-inflation-in-22-years-and-not-just-housing-powells-gonna-have-another-cow/

Yeah The Wolfman at Wolf Street website has been warning about core inflation (or inflation excluding food and energy) such as the costs for home repair (i.e., air condition repair, etc.), housing costs, etc.

Still core inflation was up 0.4% from December 2023 to January 2024 and up 2.8% for the last 12 months.

As The Wolfman says, lets see how this plays out such as with the 6 month moving average for core inflation and overall inflation.

That is if we can trust the economic numbers reported by the Biden Admin are not being massaged more than usual during an election year.

Just seems like the circumstance is too ideal for the Biden Admin to show inflation going down while unemployment remaining low. And I say this in the same context of not being shocked by any "October surprise".

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There are no maximum number of people allowed in a SFH via Supreme Court.

https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2021R1/Downloads/PublicTestimonyDocument/4278

There is no maximum number of owners. There are no maximum number of parties on mortgages.

A bill has been introduced to allow illegals in California access to the California Dream for All Shared Appreciation Loans program, which launched spring of 2023 to give qualifying first-time home buyers a loan that covers up to 20% of a property’s purchase price that will not accumulate interest or have required monthly payments. Loanees are instead expected to pay back the original loan amount in addition to 20% of the increase in the home’s value when the property’s mortgage is refinanced or resold.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/new-california-bill-make-illegal-immigrants-eligible-first-time-homebuyer-loans

So, no down payment needed 'cause the 20% is covered by the State of California. You just cram enough illegals into the dwelling so their combined wages/social benefits conform to Fannie/Freddie guidelines and voila the American dream.

We may get some new highs on house prices.

Misc says

So, no down payment needed 'cause the 20% is covered by the State of California. You just cram enough illegals into the dwelling so their combined wages/social benefits conform to Fannie/Freddie guidelines and voila the American dream.

We may get some new highs on house prices.

Think.about it.

This is quite brilliant when looking at the perspective of what it is really designed to accomplish.

Misc says

You just cram enough illegals into the dwelling so their combined wages/social benefits conform to Fannie/Freddie guidelines cover the rent for our favorite landlord.

More landless peasants to exploit.

“The bill does not prevent landlords and other private entities from setting occupancy limits for their own units, within existing law (ORS 90.262). The -1 amendment clarifies that the bill will not change cities’ ability to limit the number of people per square foot or enforce fire and building codes.” - THE END

FLORIDA RENTS COLLAPSE

Renting in Florida is expensive. But if it's not exactly getting better, it is getting less worse.

Florida saw the highest percentage of decline in rent prices of any state year over year in 2023, according to the January report from Rent.com. There was a 9.21% drop in the median average rent price, which is currently $2,095 a month, down 1.14% from December.

Don't get too excited, the current national median rent price is $1,964. But that's down as well, from its peak in August 2022 at $2,054, according to the report. And that doesn't mean that your specific rent, whatever is, has gone down.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/2024/02/16/florida-rent-prices-cost-national-average/72610845007/

$1900/month was a 3 bed condo ON THE WATER in a Sunny Isles Beach high rise with a wrap around balcony in the mid 2010s. I know because I shopped for one and put a relative in one then. Granted, it was faux marble and mirrors with gold trim except what was shaggy White but old folks like their Liberace styles. Not a shitty Orlando or Ocala or PSL landlocked surburban ranch with the 45 degree kitchen off to the side of the Great Room...

Standby for Inventory and Pending data...

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Hotshot Wharton professor sees $34 trillion debt triggering 2025 meltdown as mortgage rates spike above 7%: ‘It could derail the next administration’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-BB1jfnRI

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AD says

.

Hotshot Wharton professor sees $34 trillion debt triggering 2025 meltdown as mortgage rates spike above 7%: ‘It could derail the next administration’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-BB1jfnRI

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BUT...BUT Real Estate Experts on PatNet said rates will go down this year! And in 2022 and early 2023 they said no way would they even rise to what they are now!

Monetary geniuses all!

UkraineIsFucked says

AD says

.

Hotshot Wharton professor sees $34 trillion debt triggering 2025 meltdown as mortgage rates spike above 7%: ‘It could derail the next administration’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-BB1jfnRI

.

BUT...BUT Real Estate Experts on PatNet said rates will go down this year! And in 2022 and early 2023 they said no way would they even rise to what they are now!

Monetary geniuses all!

I still think that the 30 year mortgage rate will steady around 5.5% in 2024, as inflation continues to subside. The 30 yr mortgage rate typically is 1.5% greater than the 10 Year Treasury and the 10 Year Treasury is 1.5% greater than annual inflation.

Notice annual inflation which is accepted as PCE is steadying around 2.5%. It just has to average 2.5% or less for at least 6 consecutive months to get the mortgage industry to adjust and lower the mortgage rate to 5.5%.

.

AD says

.

Hotshot Wharton professor sees $34 trillion debt triggering 2025 meltdown as mortgage rates spike above 7%: ‘It could derail the next administration’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-BB1jfnRI

.

Those who can’t do, teach…..I wouldn’t put much weight on what a professor said. Also, be careful taking real estate advice from renters.

Housing bubble, or inflation, or……?



https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1764396852323950770?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

And 32% of houses are purchased all cash. A lot of people have coin.

And home ownership rates are near record highs.

Holy 💩! This won’t end well, but what do I know? All I have been doing was twiddling my thumbs the last several months.



https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1764317091950162215?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

Most kids in this country grow up poor and I mean really poor. Before Obama was president, there was a stigma associated with taking government aid. Obama removed that stigma. It can be argued either way whether this was for the better or not. Last stats I looked at pegged that 70% of children in this country were receiving some sort of governmental aid.

Try explaining to them that: no people do not need section-8 housing, they do not need to pay rent, they do not need a mortgage. That 32% of the houses purchased are done all cash. That, yes, the average price of a house is $417000. Regular people just have that much coin. The kids just cannot understand how that can be.

Misc says

And home ownership rates are near record highs.

Not really
.



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Eman says

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1764317091950162215?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

If rents are rising only by 2% annually, then that is management or sustainable as income is growing at least by that rate. I realize it could be higher than 2% since housing is only about 37% of the total household expenses.
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That chart is kinda flat. Looks like we are only 3% away from the record home ownership.

Misc says

That chart is kinda flat. Looks like we are only 3% away from the record home ownership.

Notice home ownership is shrinking and is almost at the same level as 1980.

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Look at it by Race. That's where it is really telling. Blacks kinda fucked up there in a big sortta way. Not all their own fault either.

Misc says

Look at it by Race. That's where it is really telling. Blacks kinda fucked up there in a big sortta way. Not all their own fault either.

It is 100%. My nephew is thriving. Straight A's in middle school. Tons of friends. It's family structure. Single mom's cannot raise kids. Does it happen, sure. Likelihood of the kid being good is trash. It's not happening. It's culture and family structure.

Baby daddy is in and out of prison. I don't think my nephew has even seen him in 4-5 years. His dad for fucks sake. He beats his mom, my SIL when he's out. I have a successful family, but I don't think people realize the reality of blacks. She's dated 3 and dumped the good one that actually got a college degree.

Maybe I'm off, but music has a lot to do with it. White rock and music like country (which I hate) are more about emotion and positivity. Black modern music is about harm and treating people like shit. Been that way since the 80's. I loved Public Enemy as a kid, but it's just fucking negative as can be. It shouldn't be about bitching. I didn't do a damn thing wrong to a black person. Quit whining and grow up.

During the Housing Bubble Days of free money, Blacks got their free money by refinancing their homes into Sub-prime mortgages. They got more money than they had ever seen before in one place in their entire lives. They blew it on everything imaginable. Word spread throughout the Black community of the riches that could be had. A vast percentage of Black homeowners helped themselves to the bounty egged on by George W. and his rhetoric of the ownership society.
When their mortgages reset to the higher interest rates they defaulted en-mass because they were told their properties were worth less than the mortgages. Foreclosures abounded. This caused extra wear and tear on the already weak family structure. Not many marriages survived.

Whites got their free money by taking out HELOCs on their properties. They got even more free money than the typical Black family and blew it on everything imaginable. Swimming pools were popular as one of the many splurges. When they ran out of free HELOC money and interest rates increased. They stopped paying on their HELOCS. Their properties nosedived in value. Since their properties decreased in value, they went to bankruptcy court and had their HELOCS discharged because they were no longer secured by the property. They got the swimming pool and all the good times of HELOC money. Since they were able to keep their house, it caused less wear and tear on the marriage.

Note that there were large variations from this norm and a few Blacks worked the HELOC scam and a few Whites got caught up getting sub-prime mortgages, but this was typical for the Phoenix metro area.

Misc says

When their mortgages reset to the higher interest rates they defaulted en-mass because they were told their properties were worth less than the mortgages. Foreclosures abounded. This caused extra wear and tear on the already weak family structure. Not many marriages survived.

Eh. Every marriage goes through financial struggle. EVERY single one. That's not an excuse. Marriages survive on commitment. I've fucked up before. Have to own it.

Black men dump sperm and run. It is just facts and stats. It's not racist, it's what is actually happening. I have the fortune of raising a black kid that's not mine because I married a woman and committed to family. It's not the kids fault his mom binge drinks and cannot drive a car. Compounded with weed. SIL, but she's hot too. She fucked up her life. Her child is better off with me of all people.

Family and structure is crucial. It can be slightly off, but you need adults. If I'm being honest and I don't think I've said this here, but I'm a functioning alcoholic. No traffic violations. I drink steady, not binge. Won golfing today while drinking, well yesterday. 3 kids in sports. 3 age ranges. Never late..Never miss anything. Black parents, usually single mom don't do that.

Basically an alcoholic is better than a black person raising kids. Soak that in.... They need to stop worrying about their skin color and doing work. Not much else to it. And stop being criminals for some dumbs reason and blaming others that's what they had to do.

It's tough to go from blowing money like there's no tomorrow to losing everything you've worked for including the house and being forced to move. I forget what the unemployment rates were for Blacks....but yep that too.

Don't get me wrong. There is plenty wrong with Black society...like everything you've mentioned.

Eman says

Also, be careful taking real estate advice from renters.

Really? All those who said "I should have bought?"

WookieMan says

Misc says

Look at it by Race. That's where it is really telling. Blacks kinda fucked up there in a big sortta way. Not all their own fault either.

It is 100%. My nephew is thriving. Straight A's in middle school. Tons of friends. It's family structure. Single mom's cannot raise kids. Does it happen, sure. Likelihood of the kid being good is trash. It's not happening. It's culture and family structure.

Need a stable environment to supplement the broken family. If it is a single mom who is stable and tries, then provide the resources such as a good public charter school and also non profits in their neighborhood like Boys and Girls Club, etc.

A stable and nurturing environment can overcome genetics and bad family history.

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Eman says

Housing bubble, or inflation, or……?

The only people buying are those with cash.

Wow, it's my registration anniversary!

I started as a secular liberal and got @Patrick 'ed into becoming a MAGA Extremist

AmericanKulak says

Eman says

Housing bubble, or inflation, or……?

The only people buying are those with cash.

A neighbor is selling his 3 bedrm/2.5 bath/2 car garage/1550 sq ft/built in 2013 townhome for around $310,000 contract price, as he listed it for $330,000 which was peak price in early 2022. He bought it around $290,000 in 2021.

He has a VA mortgage for 30 years at 2.5%. He said the investor buyer is going to assume the mortgage and has submitted their paperwork to the bank or mortgage note holder.

I wonder what percentage of sales now are with assumable mortgages like VA or FHA.

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AmericanKulak says

Wow, it's my registration anniversary!

I started as a secular liberal and got Patrick 'ed into becoming a MAGA Extremist

Welcome to the tribe.

Fannie Mae's secret Condo Building blacklist!

Some say Fannie Mae’s confidential list of blacklisted condos grew after the Surfside collapse in 2021. Fannie plans to release around 3Q 2024.

MIAMI – Some people trying to buy a condominium in South Florida but getting mysteriously rejected for a mortgage could be in for a jolt: The reason they can’t get a loan may be that the condo is on a secret quasi-governmental blacklist.

News media reports and data leaks to a pair of law firms in New England and Fort Lauderdale have now confirmed what some in the condo industry suspected: that Fannie Mae, one of two federally chartered companies that help determine who qualifies for home mortgages, has for at least two years maintained a confidential database of condo buildings, including hundreds in Florida, that it won’t back for loans, typically because of maintenance or financial issues.

https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2023/12/fannie-mae-maintains-secret-list-restricted-condos

Other fun news: The new Florida Condo law now prohibits elderly cheapskates from putting off structural repairs, which is one of the reasons for the skyrocking Condo (and HOA, since HOA buildings like Clubhouses are included) fees. Previously, Condo Assocs didn't need to do inspections starting at certain years (25-30 from construction) and could delay assessments/reserve building for known issues - again, from the Surfside collapse situation.

As an elderly Renaissance Pope once said, upon being told the Antichrist was born: "I shall leave that for my successor to deal with"

AmericanKulak says

Wow, it's my registration anniversary!

I started as a secular liberal and got Patrick 'ed into becoming a MAGA Extremist

Patrick himself used to be an Obama supporting lefty.

HeadSet says

Eman says

Also, be careful taking real estate advice from renters.

Really? All those who said "I should have bought?"

Well, I’ve been on this site just shy of 1.5 decades. This site started during the previous housing bubble. Those, who should have bought but didn’t, that’s 1.5 decades of loss opportunity. Hope they use the “saved money” and invest wisely.

At this point, it seems like it’s a 2.0 housing bubble, but who knows. Unless it’s an extremely compelling deal, I’m happy sitting on my hands and doing nothing.

The recent Bubble blew up faster than the 2000s Bubble.

There's too much money chasing too few opportunities because modern growth is predictated on easy money and flattened wages.

Because savings and dividends are depreciated, and cheap money and stock growth celebrated, we're in the situation we're in.

AmericanKulak says

Eman says

Housing bubble, or inflation, or……?

The only people buying are those with cash.

Not in my experience. The buyers for my last 3 flips were all financed in the 6-7%…ish mortgage rates. It was simply crazy looking at their monthly mortgage payments.

AmericanKulak says

The recent Bubble blew up faster than the 2000s Bubble.

There's too much money chasing too few opportunities because modern growth is predictated on easy money and flattened wages.

Because savings and dividends are depreciated, and cheap money and stock growth celebrated, we're in the situation we're in.

I sense something really bad is going to happen. Just don’t know when or how, and which market is going to crack first.

Eman says

I sense something really bad is going to happen. Just don’t know when or how, and which market is going to crack first.

There's no way it isn't.

For all the fantasies of endless waves of Chinese and South American and Russian cartel operators buying hundreds of thousands of suburban SFHs and middling townhomes, at the bottom is housing affordability, which has nearly doubled since COVID while wages clearly did not.

Miami Condos, LA pied-a-tierres, sure. But the Villages? The Suburbs of Boise and Pigeon Forge and Asheville full of Russian mafiosos, Venezuelan Cartel Members, and CCP businessmen? No.

Whatever causes the downward wave, I'm standing by my massive demographic shift theory.

AD says

I still think that the 30 year mortgage rate will steady around 5.5% in 2024, as inflation continues to subside. The 30 yr mortgage rate typically is 1.5% greater than the 10 Year Treasury and the 10 Year Treasury is 1.5% greater than annual inflation.

Notice annual inflation which is accepted as PCE is steadying around 2.5%. It just has to average 2.5% or less for at least 6 consecutive months to get the mortgage industry to adjust and lower the mortgage rate to 5.5%.

The 10 year Treasury rate is what the fucking bond market fucking sez it is, nothing more.

That 'rule' you cite is just a coincidence in a world were Boomers were in their mass peak earning and saving years instead of mass retirement drawdown years. And the government is increasing the federal debt by $1 trillion every 100 DAYS now.

Plus, the Inflation rate from the government is bullshiit.