patrick.net

Eman says

Housing bubble, or inflation, or……?

The only people buying are those with cash.

Wow, it's my registration anniversary!

I started as a secular liberal and got @Patrick 'ed into becoming a MAGA Extremist

AmericanKulak says

Eman says

Housing bubble, or inflation, or……?

The only people buying are those with cash.

A neighbor is selling his 3 bedrm/2.5 bath/2 car garage/1550 sq ft/built in 2013 townhome for around $310,000 contract price, as he listed it for $330,000 which was peak price in early 2022. He bought it around $290,000 in 2021.

He has a VA mortgage for 30 years at 2.5%. He said the investor buyer is going to assume the mortgage and has submitted their paperwork to the bank or mortgage note holder.

I wonder what percentage of sales now are with assumable mortgages like VA or FHA.

.

AmericanKulak says

Wow, it's my registration anniversary!

I started as a secular liberal and got Patrick 'ed into becoming a MAGA Extremist

Welcome to the tribe.

Fannie Mae's secret Condo Building blacklist!

Some say Fannie Mae’s confidential list of blacklisted condos grew after the Surfside collapse in 2021. Fannie plans to release around 3Q 2024.

MIAMI – Some people trying to buy a condominium in South Florida but getting mysteriously rejected for a mortgage could be in for a jolt: The reason they can’t get a loan may be that the condo is on a secret quasi-governmental blacklist.

News media reports and data leaks to a pair of law firms in New England and Fort Lauderdale have now confirmed what some in the condo industry suspected: that Fannie Mae, one of two federally chartered companies that help determine who qualifies for home mortgages, has for at least two years maintained a confidential database of condo buildings, including hundreds in Florida, that it won’t back for loans, typically because of maintenance or financial issues.

https://www.floridarealtors.org/news-media/news-articles/2023/12/fannie-mae-maintains-secret-list-restricted-condos

Other fun news: The new Florida Condo law now prohibits elderly cheapskates from putting off structural repairs, which is one of the reasons for the skyrocking Condo (and HOA, since HOA buildings like Clubhouses are included) fees. Previously, Condo Assocs didn't need to do inspections starting at certain years (25-30 from construction) and could delay assessments/reserve building for known issues - again, from the Surfside collapse situation.

As an elderly Renaissance Pope once said, upon being told the Antichrist was born: "I shall leave that for my successor to deal with"

AmericanKulak says

Wow, it's my registration anniversary!

I started as a secular liberal and got Patrick 'ed into becoming a MAGA Extremist

Patrick himself used to be an Obama supporting lefty.

HeadSet says

Eman says

Also, be careful taking real estate advice from renters.

Really? All those who said "I should have bought?"

Well, I’ve been on this site just shy of 1.5 decades. This site started during the previous housing bubble. Those, who should have bought but didn’t, that’s 1.5 decades of loss opportunity. Hope they use the “saved money” and invest wisely.

At this point, it seems like it’s a 2.0 housing bubble, but who knows. Unless it’s an extremely compelling deal, I’m happy sitting on my hands and doing nothing.

The recent Bubble blew up faster than the 2000s Bubble.

There's too much money chasing too few opportunities because modern growth is predictated on easy money and flattened wages.

Because savings and dividends are depreciated, and cheap money and stock growth celebrated, we're in the situation we're in.

AmericanKulak says

Eman says

Housing bubble, or inflation, or……?

The only people buying are those with cash.

Not in my experience. The buyers for my last 3 flips were all financed in the 6-7%…ish mortgage rates. It was simply crazy looking at their monthly mortgage payments.

AmericanKulak says

The recent Bubble blew up faster than the 2000s Bubble.

There's too much money chasing too few opportunities because modern growth is predictated on easy money and flattened wages.

Because savings and dividends are depreciated, and cheap money and stock growth celebrated, we're in the situation we're in.

I sense something really bad is going to happen. Just don’t know when or how, and which market is going to crack first.

Eman says

I sense something really bad is going to happen. Just don’t know when or how, and which market is going to crack first.

There's no way it isn't.

For all the fantasies of endless waves of Chinese and South American and Russian cartel operators buying hundreds of thousands of suburban SFHs and middling townhomes, at the bottom is housing affordability, which has nearly doubled since COVID while wages clearly did not.

Miami Condos, LA pied-a-tierres, sure. But the Villages? The Suburbs of Boise and Pigeon Forge and Asheville full of Russian mafiosos, Venezuelan Cartel Members, and CCP businessmen? No.

Whatever causes the downward wave, I'm standing by my massive demographic shift theory.

AD says

I still think that the 30 year mortgage rate will steady around 5.5% in 2024, as inflation continues to subside. The 30 yr mortgage rate typically is 1.5% greater than the 10 Year Treasury and the 10 Year Treasury is 1.5% greater than annual inflation.

Notice annual inflation which is accepted as PCE is steadying around 2.5%. It just has to average 2.5% or less for at least 6 consecutive months to get the mortgage industry to adjust and lower the mortgage rate to 5.5%.

The 10 year Treasury rate is what the fucking bond market fucking sez it is, nothing more.

That 'rule' you cite is just a coincidence in a world were Boomers were in their mass peak earning and saving years instead of mass retirement drawdown years. And the government is increasing the federal debt by $1 trillion every 100 DAYS now.

Plus, the Inflation rate from the government is bullshiit.

Eman says

Well, I’ve been on this site just shy of 1.5 decades. This site started during the previous housing bubble. Those, who should have bought but didn’t, that’s 1.5 decades of loss opportunity. Hope they use the “saved money” and invest wisely.

At this point, it seems like it’s a 2.0 housing bubble, but who knows. Unless it’s an extremely compelling deal, I’m happy sitting on my hands and doing nothing.

I've been on this site since watching a video of Patrick on 20/20 about the housing bubble and learning of his book titled Housing Trap. It was around 2010 but I think Patrick was on 20/20 in 2007.

It has to do with housing affordability ultimately, whereas housing standards are maintained (no more than 1 family under 1 roof) and median housing costs are no more than 38% of household income.

And it still applies to San Fran Bay Area that's very nuanced since the median salary there is skewed toward the tech industry.

.

Eman says

AmericanKulak says

The recent Bubble blew up faster than the 2000s Bubble.

There's too much money chasing too few opportunities because modern growth is predictated on easy money and flattened wages.

Because savings and dividends are depreciated, and cheap money and stock growth celebrated, we're in the situation we're in.

I sense something really bad is going to happen. Just don’t know when or how, and which market is going to crack first.

Not going to happen until after the election. Mainstream media will lie or black out stories in order to protect Biden.

What sucks for Biden is there is a lot of time (about 6 months at least) for shit to get real bad no matter how much the mainstream media spins it such as blames Republicans or Putin, or just blacks it out (i.e., ignores it).

.

I just bought a house and now jobless
https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/1b6rely/i_just_bought_a_house_and_now_jobless/

Further discussion here (with deleted info from the embarrassed OP in the original post included:
https://old.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/1b750nw/when_stretching_too_far_to_own_a_home_goes_bad/

To summarize and some of this doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but 50 year old guy buys a house 500k and some change, $4700 payment. Isn't a tech worker but works in tech ie marketing, on a 150k a year contract. Buys house, gets laid off, not eligible for unemployment as he's a contract worker, tech jobs are hard to come by and many of these overinflated salaries are a thing of the past. Apparently rents are low compared to home prices so renting out the home won't come close to covering the mortgage, apparently house is a 2/1 fixer upper. Even if he gets a roomate he's looking at getting $1500 tops, probably $1100 more likely. Trying to figure out what to do.

So let's look at the situation, stretches way too far to own this house but says its because he's in a HCOL area. Has only like a 2 month emergency fund, no 401k and a small IRA. Initially said selling would walk away with 15k, then break even, then acknowledged would probably have to pay money to walk away. When people tell him he can't afford the house find a way to get out of it he keeps talking about how he can afford it later this year when rates come down, sounds like even if everything went perfect he would have needed rates come down to afford this and that's if no repairs come up, no job loss, no property tax or insurance hike and I'd imagine so long as other living expenses i.e. - food, car insurance, etc .don't go up either. He's really stuck on the idea everyone is wrong he can afford the house, once rates come down, sounds like a realtor got that into his head.

https://www.reddit.com/r/debtfree/comments/1b6tmw6/80k_in_debt_and_drowning/

80k in Debt and drowning

My husband and I are in 80K of credit card debt. I am just not sure what to do at this point. The worst part is, we bought a house two years ago with no credit card debt and only a car payment.

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/debtfree/comments/1b6tmw6/80k_in_debt_and_drowning/

80k in Debt and drowning

My husband and I are in 80K of credit card debt. I am just not sure what to do at this point. The worst part is, we bought a house two years ago with no credit card debt and only a car payment.

CC debt is scary… 10-30% interest. I guess people did it out of desperation and hoped they could catch up, but the debt and interest spiraled out of control. So unfortunate.

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/debtfree/comments/1b6tmw6/80k_in_debt_and_drowning/

80k in Debt and drowning

My husband and I are in 80K of credit card debt. I am just not sure what to do at this point. The worst part is, we bought a house two years ago with no credit card debt and only a car payment.

Since you already have the loan for the house, stop paying the CC. If possible, make a year's worth of car payments on the CC and THEN stop paying the CC.

zzyzzx says

Has only like a 2 month emergency fund, no 401k and a small IRA. Initially said selling would walk away with 15k, then break even, then acknowledged would probably have to pay money to walk away. When people tell him he can't afford the house find a way to get out of it he keeps talking about how he can afford it later this year when rates come down, sounds like even if everything went perfect he would have needed rates come down to afford this and that's if no repairs come up, no job loss, no property tax or insurance hike and I'd imagine so long as other living expenses i.e. - food, car insurance, etc .don't go up either.

It's called insolvency. He literally can walk away and not pay a dime if there's a job loss in the year or two and live free. I have a decade of this from the housing crash. This is not legal advice, but you don't have to pay. Especially with a job loss. It will take a year plus to foreclose. If you short sell you could drag it out even longer.

I don't think some of you guys know what us brokers were doing. It's hard to explain and complicated. To make it simple. Sign a listing at $100k on a short sale. Mortgage is $200k. Part of the agreement is you are owner. All legal documents filed. Sell it for $180k and you get the $80k and the owner gets out of their debt.

Mind you this wasn't my office and this did get invested for some reason by the FBI. It was 100% legal at the time. I really don't think anyone gets what was actually going on. The managing broker made millions doing this. I was just using little numbers. And was still getting commissions on top of it. I've been out of the business and might not be explaining it the best, but it was pretty brilliant.

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-new-listings-increase-pending-sales-decline/

Biggest Inventory Uptick In Nearly 3 Years, But Buyers Show Restraint as Rates Rise

New listings of U.S. homes for sale rose 13% year over year during the four weeks ending February 25, the biggest increase in nearly three years. Total inventory is also improving.

zzyzzx says

No Bay Area, San Jose or San Francisco? Why being racist like that? 😂

zzyzzx says

I think it was Richter saying that double tops have never before happened in the Case/Shiller Index.

Inventory climbing back to normal.



Who will buy all these properties at 7% interest, with homeowner's skyrocketing, property tax skyrocketing (Homestead exemption doesn't millage rates and only protects from increases when CPI less than 3%), and you can rent for much less?

The Russian Mob or CCP Businessmen or Venezuelan Gangsters? They're lining up to buy SFH in PSL? Townhomes outside Jax? 55+ Manufactured Homes in Springhill? Villages retirement ranches? I think not. Investors? Rents dropped almost 10% last year in Florida.

zzyzzx says

Oops, too late. Haha

zzyzzx says

Don't worry! The Housing Experrs of PatNet insist your rate will fall.

zzyzzx says

It will go down to ~5%! (Not me, someone else here believes that)

zzyzzx says

Reeeeeeeeeeeeeee-- ...version to the mean.

We're probably in the "things are back to normal" part of the double peak.

Heh.

It's different this time.

Permanent Plateau Realtors say
But inventory builds each way
Climbs the wall of worry every day

House Prices are up where they don't belong
Easy Money inflated, COVID demand related
Housing costs up where it don't belong
Reversion to mean is far below
30-year rates so high, where jetstreams blow

Time goes by
Rates still high
Record Price Demands
While Inventory Expands

Prices are up where they don't belong
As rental rates get smashed, cry "but Investors with cash!"
Costs up where it don't belong
Agents need so much cope,
Rates will drop is their dope.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cOaUTHQV7g

Eman says

No Bay Area, San Jose or San Francisco?

Return to normal before fear, capitulation, and despair?

Bring on the FUD!

All you cats are living in different realities. You're in FL, CA or any coastal areas. If you guys drop it drags down the national numbers. That's not the reality for much of the country. Or you're experiencing your first exodus of population. Been there done that in IL. We're extremely stable even though I hate the governor.

Cities are toast as millennials move out from party town and start moving right and forming families. The $500k 2/2 bachelor pads are going to plummet. The floor is high though as Boomers will die and/or give the house to the kids. I don't have a care in my location. I'm up $200k in a decade in a low cost of living area.

EBGuy says

Eman says

No Bay Area, San Jose or San Francisco?

Return to normal before fear, capitulation, and despair?

@EBGuy,

What do you think? Say the HPI for our market is currently at 340. Will it come down to 260-270, or will it come down to 200-220?

WookieMan says

The floor is high though as Boomers will die and/or give the house to the kids.

Who will rent it out and depress rents, or all be selling them about the same time.

Amber and Dylan living and working in SFBA or Asheville don't want to bothered maintaining a house outside of Phoenix or Tampa. And since it's one property, not really worth the management costs.

If they aren't stuck and don't have kids, what are they going to do with a 4/2 in The Villages or Goodyear?

Sherry reeee bay ay bee! C'mon Dylan, let's go! More 50s and 60s music at the La Boca Vista Community Center!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hQhqsopzJf8

Florida housing inventory back up to pre COVID levels
https://www.floridarealtors.org/tools-research/reports/florida-market-reports

This tool provided by Florida Realtors® gives up to date data on the market. Both SFH and Townhouses/condos months of supply on inventory has now eclipsed the levels seen on Jan 2020.

SFH at 3.8 months currently, 3.4 months 4 years ago.

-Townhouse/condos at 5.8 months currently, 5.5 months Jan 2020.

Prices still high, foreclosures are low, but the inventory has been increasing rapidly.

Lots of supply currently getting built all over the state that has yet to come to the market.

Instead of "months of supply", it would be better if they just stated the number of properties for sale.

Today there are much fewer transactions than back 4 years ago, so months supply is misleading.

Misc says

Instead of "months of supply", it would be better if they just stated the number of properties for sale.

Today there are much fewer transactions than back 4 years ago, so months supply is misleading.

I think it's because months supply is a better measure of if it's a buyers market or a sellers market.