patrick.net

GNL says

My daughter married into a family that owns quite a bit of real estate on Nantucket.

There was a girl from Nantucket...

Translation: The Fed won't really cut rates beyond some tokenism. Oh, and they really don't give a shit about housing affordability but will use it as a rhetorical foil to justify not cutting rates.



https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2024/0402

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

I want INCEASES, dammit!

HeadSet says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

I want INCEASES, dammit!

We have to get to the no cuts phase before moving on to the we need increases phase.

zzyzzx says

We have to get to the no cuts phase before moving on to the we need increases phase.

Too bad, since the price of renting money should rise as has the price of renting houses, cars, and probably women.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

ERECTION INTENSFYING!!!

Any suggestions on good rental property in pa philly north suburb. Philly has lot of cheap property but funding good tenant in those bad neighborhood is issue. Something in decent suburb with good cap rate would be good.

zzyzzx says

We have to get to the no cuts phase before moving on to the we need increases phase.

The fuckers from Fed are no different from news reading talking heads.

While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse. I continue to see a number of upside risks to inflation.~ Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, April 5, 2024

Both cases, they have the junior Fed flunkies deliver the news. Not Powell. Notice that?

But don't worry...the Fed Experts on PatNet assure us rate cuts (beyond some token .00001% basis points) are coming!

But the Fed Experts on PatNet....

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

But the Fed Experts on PatNet....

Yeah, I read that the 10 Year Treasury rate needs to get down below 3.5% to make debt payment or service to below 12% of the total federal expenditures. I think in 2022 that debt service was 8% of the federal expenditures. I hope Wolfman at Wolfstreet shows a graph of debt service as a percentage of federal expenditures for each fiscal year at least from 1990 to 2023.

I heard on the radio about the 99 cent stores shutting in California, and below is the article. The radio news report said employee theft was a major reason for the closing. Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

https://apnews.com/article/99-cents-only-store-closures-0f44cf157c8d8a23085ee8ab4e2f7878

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AD says

I heard on the radio about the 99 cent stores shutting in California, and below is the article. The radio news report said employee theft was a major reason for the closing.

Anything stolen under $1K is fine as per the "law". No police will come and save it!
The guy who call police, police themselves are all "racists" if they confront with thieves. It turns out the political clowns turns criminals into celebrities as the way of buying votes like 3rd world! More stores started keep the stuff behind the locked doors who are still in business! This procedure will add up the costs and change consumer experience.

AD says

99 cent stores shutting in California,

Product “shrink” was given as a reason.

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

socal2...until his Tesla is stolen by a Ukrainian cowardly male that he insists is still in Ukey Nazi Land as part of 'one of the greatest militaries on Earth'.

original link

Florida inventory rockets back to pre-COVID levels.


While mortgage apps continue to Flounder

Check out the last couple of sentences above.

Brand new Constuction for $300k? ~1350sqft?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/282-Lagoon-St-SW-Palm-Bay-FL-32908/104128935_zpid/

Or Grandpa passed away 35 year old 1990 used home for $282k in the same neighborhood?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1565-Giles-St-NW-Palm-Bay-FL-32907/43483705_zpid/

Homeloaners smokin' the crack,
They want those COVID prices back
Despite 7% they think they will get,
Better cut the ask and take Percoset.

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

mell says

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

But you’re supporting them which means you’re part of the problem, no?

AmericanKulak says

Florida inventory rockets back to pre-COVID levels.

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.

Figure at peak price in early 2022 that the locked-in rate was around 3%.

So if you buy down the 30 year mortgage rate to 6% from 7% and account for income / wage increases since early 2022, then home prices should drop around 20% to 25% to adjust for the increase in the 30 year mortgage rate.

AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.

Only if corporate investors stop buying. Which you'd think they would because their financing costs go up too.

In my UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.

Only if corporate investors stop buying. Which you'd think they would because their financing costs go up too

Who is buying them up ? Invitation Homes stock is only up about 8% from its February 2020 level. All time high is $45 in December 2021.

When I stated in my last post a 20 to 25% correction for the 30 Year mortgage rate increase, I meant a correction to the peak price set around early 2022.

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So, it’s different this time. LOL

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Only if corporate investors stop buying

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-08/blackstone-to-purchase-apartment-owner-air-in-10-billion-deal

Blackstone buys Apartment Income REIT for $10 billion

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mell says

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

Not worth it for most. Cost of living is too high for high income earners between taxes and housing. You can earn the same or more in any state and pay 20-50% less if you have skills. Can get a bigger house, more land elsewhere. I've done the math on this. Don't have the spread sheet anymore. Besides weather, it's literally the worst state to live in the nation. It's no wonder EV's are so popular there.....

GNL says

mell says

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

But you’re supporting them which means you’re part of the problem, no?

To some extent yes. We may leave CA at some opportune point, but I think it's possible to affect change locally and that the tide can turn politically. A few signs are already emerging. Also people/politics aren't everything when considering where to live.

WookieMan says

Can get a bigger house, more land elsewhere.

Land is nice to have (and yes expensive here), plenty of backyards growing any kind of fruit and vegetables here. Americans are obsessed with large houses, and constantly renovating, a 3 to 4 bedroom for a family with 2-3 kids is totally sufficient. We overlook water, mountains and vineyards. There are plenty of nice rural areas in the US no doubt, and CA has some of the finest nature and climate - and the best wine.

Rate cut! Rate cut!

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

I have no idea if or when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, but when they do, prices of houses will bounce up.

clambo says

I have no idea if or when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, but when they do, prices of houses will bounce up.

My theory is that peak prices were mostly set in early 2022 and that there was some household income growth since then.

You have to factor that household income growth when you drop the price from peak price if you are accounting for the increase in the 30 year mortgage interest rate since early 2022.

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AD says

My theory is that peak prices were mostly set in early 2022 and that there was some household income growth since then.

Depends on the area and industry. Wife is gonna sell $2M more and make close to $100k more after accounting for margins, SS, 401k, etc. We'll be flush with cash right when we need to be. I'd be shocked if Biden increased the Fed rate in an election year. But he has to deal with inflation. As much as it would hurt me, I like to see the fed rate increase.

When a case of my favorite beer goes from $13.99 to 21.99 in about 4 years WITH interest rate increases. Something is wrong. I'm not seeing cuts, yet at least, unless it's an election year move.

https://lifestylesunlimited.com/ Mr.Del Walmsley in his radio 1220am show says, right now is the best opportunity to buy as the rate decreases and prices will raise!

WookieMan says

When a case of my favorite beer goes from $13.99 to 21.99 in about 4 years WITH interest rate increases. Something is wrong. I'm not seeing cuts, yet at least, unless it's an election year move.

Yes. The Housing Experts of PatNet Who Don't Know Jack Shit About Monetary Issues But Insist Otherwise Because Of Their Copium Problems are once again discredited.

In wine country the boomers keep buying up almost everything coming onto the market, even trashy places. No signs of a downturn in housing prices.

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https://www.redfin.com/news/san-francisco-home-sellers-lose-gain-money/

Nearly 20% of San Francisco Home Sellers Take a Loss on Their Sale, More Than Four Times the National Share

April 10, 2024 by Dana Anderson and Elijah de la Campa

• The share of San Francisco sellers losing money on their home sale is sitting near its highest level in more than a decade, largely because prices have come back down to earth after skyrocketing during the pandemic.

• Nationwide, the share of sellers losing money is much smaller (4%) because home prices remain near their record high.

• In San Francisco, the typical seller who’s parting ways with their home for less than they originally paid is losing $155,500. Nationwide, the median loss is roughly $40,000.

• New England sellers are least likely to lose money, with less than 2% of Providence, RI and Boston sellers taking a loss.

There’s quite a bit of information missing in that article, no? San Franciscan sellers are actually bringing $155,000 to the settlement table? How long did these sellers own the property?

I've been saying the last few years. CA is going to bring down the national median. Freak people out. People are leaving CA because those that live there don't do shit for local politics. Reap what you sow.

I HATE Biden, inflation is bad. Most of the country is just doing fine. CA fucks up and they expect everyone to freak out. We don't care. Your overpriced house is eating shit? Not my problem in IL. You're maybe midway in the exodus from CA. Been there. Lived it. The party is just starting. Thing is the rest of the country gives no shits.