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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   604,550 views  5,669 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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4684   WookieMan   2024 Apr 1, 2:22pm  

zzyzzx says

Homebuyers need to earn 80% more than they did in 2020 to afford a home in today’s market

Move or make more money? Neither are difficult if you want it. Most people settle and stay in the same place. There are cheaper areas. Higher paying jobs. I'm working to charter my friends private jet in September to the Ozark's.

Bitching about it and doing something about it are two different things. I'll take the latter. I give no shits what my house is worth. It will be paid off before I'm dead and there WILL be someone there to buy it or my kids inherit it loan free.

I think the bigger problem is the castration of men. They don't know how to turn a wrench. They rely on the limited trades currently available. Get ripped off when they could do it themselves. They're gay by default. My rehab would have been $120k easy. I did it for $20k. Includes a kitchen. My former boss came to the house and was like WTF? You did this? He was a broker, but also a general contractor. If you have boys, teach them. Hell even girls. The TV show with females is bull shit, but there are women that can work. If they're hot, keep them, keep them.
4685   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Apr 1, 10:00pm  

Oh man! This is the bomb!

https://theamericansun.substack.com/p/a-state-based-proposal-to-change

The comments make us on PatNet seem like humanitarian saints by comparison.
4686   zzyzzx   2024 Apr 3, 1:01pm  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-3-million-home-listing-180556772.html

A $2.3 million home listing in Nantucket slashed its price by a whopping 74% after its shoreline experienced drastic erosion in just a few weeks
4687   GNL   2024 Apr 3, 2:02pm  

zzyzzx says


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-3-million-home-listing-180556772.html

A $2.3 million home listing in Nantucket slashed its price by a whopping 74% after its shoreline experienced drastic erosion in just a few weeks

My daughter married into a family that owns quite a bit of real estate on Nantucket. I visited last summer. She took us to an old lighthouse that had to be moved because of the erosion. At the same spot were homes that are extremely close to going over the edge. I think she said one of them was worth $20,000,000 at one time.
4688   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Apr 3, 2:44pm  

GNL says

My daughter married into a family that owns quite a bit of real estate on Nantucket.


There was a girl from Nantucket...
4689   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Apr 3, 2:48pm  

Translation: The Fed won't really cut rates beyond some tokenism. Oh, and they really don't give a shit about housing affordability but will use it as a rhetorical foil to justify not cutting rates.



https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2024/0402
4692   HeadSet   2024 Apr 5, 7:20am  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says





I want INCEASES, dammit!
4693   zzyzzx   2024 Apr 5, 7:32am  

HeadSet says

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says






I want INCEASES, dammit!


We have to get to the no cuts phase before moving on to the we need increases phase.
4694   HeadSet   2024 Apr 5, 7:50am  

zzyzzx says

We have to get to the no cuts phase before moving on to the we need increases phase.

Too bad, since the price of renting money should rise as has the price of renting houses, cars, and probably women.
4695   zzyzzx   2024 Apr 5, 7:54am  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says






ERECTION INTENSFYING!!!
4696   KgK one   2024 Apr 5, 8:02am  

Any suggestions on good rental property in pa philly north suburb. Philly has lot of cheap property but funding good tenant in those bad neighborhood is issue. Something in decent suburb with good cap rate would be good.
4697   gabbar   2024 Apr 5, 8:32am  

zzyzzx says

We have to get to the no cuts phase before moving on to the we need increases phase.

The fuckers from Fed are no different from news reading talking heads.
4698   gabbar   2024 Apr 5, 4:14pm  

While it is not my baseline outlook, I continue to see the risk that at a future meeting we may need to increase the policy rate further should progress on inflation stall or even reverse. I continue to see a number of upside risks to inflation.~ Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, April 5, 2024
4699   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Apr 5, 5:21pm  

Both cases, they have the junior Fed flunkies deliver the news. Not Powell. Notice that?

But don't worry...the Fed Experts on PatNet assure us rate cuts (beyond some token .00001% basis points) are coming!
4700   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Apr 5, 9:22pm  

But the Fed Experts on PatNet....


4701   AD   2024 Apr 6, 12:08am  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

But the Fed Experts on PatNet....


Yeah, I read that the 10 Year Treasury rate needs to get down below 3.5% to make debt payment or service to below 12% of the total federal expenditures. I think in 2022 that debt service was 8% of the federal expenditures. I hope Wolfman at Wolfstreet shows a graph of debt service as a percentage of federal expenditures for each fiscal year at least from 1990 to 2023.

I heard on the radio about the 99 cent stores shutting in California, and below is the article. The radio news report said employee theft was a major reason for the closing. Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

https://apnews.com/article/99-cents-only-store-closures-0f44cf157c8d8a23085ee8ab4e2f7878

.
4702   Blue   2024 Apr 6, 12:41am  

AD says


I heard on the radio about the 99 cent stores shutting in California, and below is the article. The radio news report said employee theft was a major reason for the closing.

Anything stolen under $1K is fine as per the "law". No police will come and save it!
The guy who call police, police themselves are all "racists" if they confront with thieves. It turns out the political clowns turns criminals into celebrities as the way of buying votes like 3rd world! More stores started keep the stuff behind the locked doors who are still in business! This procedure will add up the costs and change consumer experience.
4703   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2024 Apr 6, 5:18am  

AD says

99 cent stores shutting in California,


Product “shrink” was given as a reason.


4704   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Apr 6, 8:27am  

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?


socal2...until his Tesla is stolen by a Ukrainian cowardly male that he insists is still in Ukey Nazi Land as part of 'one of the greatest militaries on Earth'.
4706   AmericanKulak   2024 Apr 8, 10:08am  

Florida inventory rockets back to pre-COVID levels.


While mortgage apps continue to Flounder

Check out the last couple of sentences above.
4707   AmericanKulak   2024 Apr 8, 10:19am  

Brand new Constuction for $300k? ~1350sqft?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/282-Lagoon-St-SW-Palm-Bay-FL-32908/104128935_zpid/

Or Grandpa passed away 35 year old 1990 used home for $282k in the same neighborhood?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1565-Giles-St-NW-Palm-Bay-FL-32907/43483705_zpid/

Homeloaners smokin' the crack,
They want those COVID prices back
Despite 7% they think they will get,
Better cut the ask and take Percoset.
4708   mell   2024 Apr 8, 10:23am  

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it
4709   GNL   2024 Apr 8, 10:50am  

mell says

AD says


Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

But you’re supporting them which means you’re part of the problem, no?
4710   AD   2024 Apr 8, 11:09am  

AmericanKulak says

Florida inventory rockets back to pre-COVID levels.


For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.

Figure at peak price in early 2022 that the locked-in rate was around 3%.

So if you buy down the 30 year mortgage rate to 6% from 7% and account for income / wage increases since early 2022, then home prices should drop around 20% to 25% to adjust for the increase in the 30 year mortgage rate.
4711   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Apr 8, 11:12am  

AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.


Only if corporate investors stop buying. Which you'd think they would because their financing costs go up too.
4712   AD   2024 Apr 8, 11:58am  

In my UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.

Only if corporate investors stop buying. Which you'd think they would because their financing costs go up too


Who is buying them up ? Invitation Homes stock is only up about 8% from its February 2020 level. All time high is $45 in December 2021.

When I stated in my last post a 20 to 25% correction for the 30 Year mortgage rate increase, I meant a correction to the peak price set around early 2022.

.
4713   GNL   2024 Apr 8, 11:58am  

So, it’s different this time. LOL
4714   AD   2024 Apr 8, 1:53pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Only if corporate investors stop buying


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-08/blackstone-to-purchase-apartment-owner-air-in-10-billion-deal

Blackstone buys Apartment Income REIT for $10 billion

.
4715   WookieMan   2024 Apr 8, 2:06pm  

mell says

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

Not worth it for most. Cost of living is too high for high income earners between taxes and housing. You can earn the same or more in any state and pay 20-50% less if you have skills. Can get a bigger house, more land elsewhere. I've done the math on this. Don't have the spread sheet anymore. Besides weather, it's literally the worst state to live in the nation. It's no wonder EV's are so popular there.....
4716   mell   2024 Apr 8, 7:45pm  

GNL says

mell says


AD says



Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it


But you’re supporting them which means you’re part of the problem, no?

To some extent yes. We may leave CA at some opportune point, but I think it's possible to affect change locally and that the tide can turn politically. A few signs are already emerging. Also people/politics aren't everything when considering where to live.

WookieMan says

Can get a bigger house, more land elsewhere.

Land is nice to have (and yes expensive here), plenty of backyards growing any kind of fruit and vegetables here. Americans are obsessed with large houses, and constantly renovating, a 3 to 4 bedroom for a family with 2-3 kids is totally sufficient. We overlook water, mountains and vineyards. There are plenty of nice rural areas in the US no doubt, and CA has some of the finest nature and climate - and the best wine.
4717   AD   2024 Apr 8, 11:15pm  



4719   clambo   2024 Apr 9, 12:53pm  

I have no idea if or when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, but when they do, prices of houses will bounce up.
4720   AD   2024 Apr 9, 2:15pm  

clambo says

I have no idea if or when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, but when they do, prices of houses will bounce up.


My theory is that peak prices were mostly set in early 2022 and that there was some household income growth since then.

You have to factor that household income growth when you drop the price from peak price if you are accounting for the increase in the 30 year mortgage interest rate since early 2022.

.
4721   WookieMan   2024 Apr 9, 2:39pm  

AD says

My theory is that peak prices were mostly set in early 2022 and that there was some household income growth since then.

Depends on the area and industry. Wife is gonna sell $2M more and make close to $100k more after accounting for margins, SS, 401k, etc. We'll be flush with cash right when we need to be. I'd be shocked if Biden increased the Fed rate in an election year. But he has to deal with inflation. As much as it would hurt me, I like to see the fed rate increase.

When a case of my favorite beer goes from $13.99 to 21.99 in about 4 years WITH interest rate increases. Something is wrong. I'm not seeing cuts, yet at least, unless it's an election year move.
4722   Blue   2024 Apr 9, 3:44pm  

https://lifestylesunlimited.com/ Mr.Del Walmsley in his radio 1220am show says, right now is the best opportunity to buy as the rate decreases and prices will raise!
4723   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Apr 11, 9:30am  

WookieMan says


When a case of my favorite beer goes from $13.99 to 21.99 in about 4 years WITH interest rate increases. Something is wrong. I'm not seeing cuts, yet at least, unless it's an election year move.


Yes. The Housing Experts of PatNet Who Don't Know Jack Shit About Monetary Issues But Insist Otherwise Because Of Their Copium Problems are once again discredited.






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