patrick.net

But the Fed Experts on PatNet....

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

But the Fed Experts on PatNet....

Yeah, I read that the 10 Year Treasury rate needs to get down below 3.5% to make debt payment or service to below 12% of the total federal expenditures. I think in 2022 that debt service was 8% of the federal expenditures. I hope Wolfman at Wolfstreet shows a graph of debt service as a percentage of federal expenditures for each fiscal year at least from 1990 to 2023.

I heard on the radio about the 99 cent stores shutting in California, and below is the article. The radio news report said employee theft was a major reason for the closing. Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

https://apnews.com/article/99-cents-only-store-closures-0f44cf157c8d8a23085ee8ab4e2f7878

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AD says

I heard on the radio about the 99 cent stores shutting in California, and below is the article. The radio news report said employee theft was a major reason for the closing.

Anything stolen under $1K is fine as per the "law". No police will come and save it!
The guy who call police, police themselves are all "racists" if they confront with thieves. It turns out the political clowns turns criminals into celebrities as the way of buying votes like 3rd world! More stores started keep the stuff behind the locked doors who are still in business! This procedure will add up the costs and change consumer experience.

AD says

99 cent stores shutting in California,

Product “shrink” was given as a reason.

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

socal2...until his Tesla is stolen by a Ukrainian cowardly male that he insists is still in Ukey Nazi Land as part of 'one of the greatest militaries on Earth'.

original link

Florida inventory rockets back to pre-COVID levels.


While mortgage apps continue to Flounder

Check out the last couple of sentences above.

Brand new Constuction for $300k? ~1350sqft?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/282-Lagoon-St-SW-Palm-Bay-FL-32908/104128935_zpid/

Or Grandpa passed away 35 year old 1990 used home for $282k in the same neighborhood?
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1565-Giles-St-NW-Palm-Bay-FL-32907/43483705_zpid/

Homeloaners smokin' the crack,
They want those COVID prices back
Despite 7% they think they will get,
Better cut the ask and take Percoset.

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

mell says

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

But you’re supporting them which means you’re part of the problem, no?

AmericanKulak says

Florida inventory rockets back to pre-COVID levels.

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.

Figure at peak price in early 2022 that the locked-in rate was around 3%.

So if you buy down the 30 year mortgage rate to 6% from 7% and account for income / wage increases since early 2022, then home prices should drop around 20% to 25% to adjust for the increase in the 30 year mortgage rate.

AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.

Only if corporate investors stop buying. Which you'd think they would because their financing costs go up too.

In my UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 year rate, then house prices should drop 10% based on mortgage affordability.

Only if corporate investors stop buying. Which you'd think they would because their financing costs go up too

Who is buying them up ? Invitation Homes stock is only up about 8% from its February 2020 level. All time high is $45 in December 2021.

When I stated in my last post a 20 to 25% correction for the 30 Year mortgage rate increase, I meant a correction to the peak price set around early 2022.

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So, it’s different this time. LOL

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Only if corporate investors stop buying

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-04-08/blackstone-to-purchase-apartment-owner-air-in-10-billion-deal

Blackstone buys Apartment Income REIT for $10 billion

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mell says

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

Not worth it for most. Cost of living is too high for high income earners between taxes and housing. You can earn the same or more in any state and pay 20-50% less if you have skills. Can get a bigger house, more land elsewhere. I've done the math on this. Don't have the spread sheet anymore. Besides weather, it's literally the worst state to live in the nation. It's no wonder EV's are so popular there.....

GNL says

mell says

AD says

Are there any remaining pro-California fluffers on Patnet ?

Sure in terms of quality of life it's still worth it if you can afford it, despite them leftoids trying hard to wreck it

But you’re supporting them which means you’re part of the problem, no?

To some extent yes. We may leave CA at some opportune point, but I think it's possible to affect change locally and that the tide can turn politically. A few signs are already emerging. Also people/politics aren't everything when considering where to live.

WookieMan says

Can get a bigger house, more land elsewhere.

Land is nice to have (and yes expensive here), plenty of backyards growing any kind of fruit and vegetables here. Americans are obsessed with large houses, and constantly renovating, a 3 to 4 bedroom for a family with 2-3 kids is totally sufficient. We overlook water, mountains and vineyards. There are plenty of nice rural areas in the US no doubt, and CA has some of the finest nature and climate - and the best wine.

Rate cut! Rate cut!

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

I have no idea if or when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, but when they do, prices of houses will bounce up.

clambo says

I have no idea if or when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, but when they do, prices of houses will bounce up.

My theory is that peak prices were mostly set in early 2022 and that there was some household income growth since then.

You have to factor that household income growth when you drop the price from peak price if you are accounting for the increase in the 30 year mortgage interest rate since early 2022.

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AD says

My theory is that peak prices were mostly set in early 2022 and that there was some household income growth since then.

Depends on the area and industry. Wife is gonna sell $2M more and make close to $100k more after accounting for margins, SS, 401k, etc. We'll be flush with cash right when we need to be. I'd be shocked if Biden increased the Fed rate in an election year. But he has to deal with inflation. As much as it would hurt me, I like to see the fed rate increase.

When a case of my favorite beer goes from $13.99 to 21.99 in about 4 years WITH interest rate increases. Something is wrong. I'm not seeing cuts, yet at least, unless it's an election year move.

https://lifestylesunlimited.com/ Mr.Del Walmsley in his radio 1220am show says, right now is the best opportunity to buy as the rate decreases and prices will raise!

WookieMan says

When a case of my favorite beer goes from $13.99 to 21.99 in about 4 years WITH interest rate increases. Something is wrong. I'm not seeing cuts, yet at least, unless it's an election year move.

Yes. The Housing Experts of PatNet Who Don't Know Jack Shit About Monetary Issues But Insist Otherwise Because Of Their Copium Problems are once again discredited.

In wine country the boomers keep buying up almost everything coming onto the market, even trashy places. No signs of a downturn in housing prices.

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https://www.redfin.com/news/san-francisco-home-sellers-lose-gain-money/

Nearly 20% of San Francisco Home Sellers Take a Loss on Their Sale, More Than Four Times the National Share

April 10, 2024 by Dana Anderson and Elijah de la Campa

• The share of San Francisco sellers losing money on their home sale is sitting near its highest level in more than a decade, largely because prices have come back down to earth after skyrocketing during the pandemic.

• Nationwide, the share of sellers losing money is much smaller (4%) because home prices remain near their record high.

• In San Francisco, the typical seller who’s parting ways with their home for less than they originally paid is losing $155,500. Nationwide, the median loss is roughly $40,000.

• New England sellers are least likely to lose money, with less than 2% of Providence, RI and Boston sellers taking a loss.

There’s quite a bit of information missing in that article, no? San Franciscan sellers are actually bringing $155,000 to the settlement table? How long did these sellers own the property?

I've been saying the last few years. CA is going to bring down the national median. Freak people out. People are leaving CA because those that live there don't do shit for local politics. Reap what you sow.

I HATE Biden, inflation is bad. Most of the country is just doing fine. CA fucks up and they expect everyone to freak out. We don't care. Your overpriced house is eating shit? Not my problem in IL. You're maybe midway in the exodus from CA. Been there. Lived it. The party is just starting. Thing is the rest of the country gives no shits.

Any half desirable location in CA is still holding pretty strong as far as I can see. I am seeing more price reductions but they started too high. Anything good is gone within a week still in the Lincoln/Rocklin fortress I am looking at.

RedStar says

Any half desirable location in CA is still holding pretty strong as far as I can see.

For sure. But it's the places that got over inflated to $1M per home and now there's human shit at their front door. Those areas will go to $500k. They see guys like Joe Rogan and Dave Rubin getting the fuck out of dodge. They don't want to slip and fall on human shit. Get taxed at outrageous amounts. CA residents are in the early phase of what I dealt with in IL. Half my good friends left. We had a really tight knit group of friends. They all moved to TX, CO, MT, TN and FL.

Just wait. CA will single handily drag down the national home median home price. Probably by 5-10%. The rest of the country will just be like, eh, it's going sideways. New York is due for a beating as well.

WookieMan says

For sure. But it's the places that got over inflated to $1M per home and now there's human shit at their front door. Those areas will go to $500k. They see guys like Joe Rogan and Dave Rubin getting the fuck out of dodge

These are scores of blocks in SF and perhaps scores more in some beach communities in L.A. In a state with about 8 million SFH's. You do the math, bro.

WookieMan says

CA will single handily drag down the national home median home price.

Good.

We dragged it up too much. Too much, too high in California for Californians. If we dragged the US median up too much, sorry about that. Time to drag it down. We mostly hope you're right.

So few homes changed hands with these freaking high prices that most of us could have a massive drop of market values, maybe even like 50% and not be under water. A massive drop will only be a problem for recent buyers who borrowed most of the purchase amount.

The huge drop will be good for almost all Californians, - even local government. Lower prices will lead to more sales and re-assessments-on-sale of decades-old Prop-13 assessments.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

The Housing Experts of PatNet Who Don't Know Jack Shit

Who are these housing experts you refer to?

Most self-identified Californians on this site including Patrick himself have expressed skepticism about the Housing Hooplah.

GNL says

There’s quite a bit of information missing in that article, no? San Franciscan sellers are actually bringing $155,000 to the settlement table? How long did these sellers own the property?

These are only people who bought recently (past couple of years) at inflated prices. Anybody pre 2020 is certainly not sitting on a loss

AD says

• Nationwide, the share of sellers losing money is much smaller (4%) because home prices remain near their record high.

True but why!? (re: prices) I have no frigin idear but I have an example, I've been looking for lake front property here in Texas:

https://www.zillow.com/lake-medina-highlands-pipe-creek-tx/

There have been zero houses sold that are 'water front' in 2 years but prior to that plenty of movement. Prices there jumped anywhere from 30-70% for these houses after covid got going and they are still close to all time highs. I do see some insignificant price drops.

And here's the thing, if you switch to satellite view you can see the damn lake is basically empty and has been for quite some time. That's exactly why I'm interested in it - cheap country real estate where sometimes I get to enjoy water, other times I take the side by side down into the dust and target shoot.

I went to an open house last summer for kicks and the real estate lady tried to tell me the owner was offering 20K to put in a well because people used to pump from the lake into tanks. Farmers built the damn 100 years ago and own the water rights and drain it a lot lately.

Anyhoo, she told he she priced it herself but little did she know my best friend's brother lives 2 doors down and did the same thing. He was quoted 60K for the 800ft drill through limestone. He's also formerly senior at D.R Horton so I'm sure he got a good quote.

Only 2 others were there before me and I got there 45mins before the open house was over. I explained that I invest in properties too and that I knew the house was waaaay overpriced (she agreed) and tried to talk her into calling me if she really found a deal. She agreed nothing had sold in over a year at that time too. She didn't want to talk, she wanted to get me the fuck out of the house so I don't scare of non-existent other buyers who might show up lol.

If I see at least a minimum of 30% price drops in meth-ville I'll buy something for my house collection but I'm really not sure that's going to happen there.

nearly 1000 feet of lakefront access of Medina Lake (when the lake is full)

ROTFLMAO

I wanted to buy this 8 acre peninsula there but he was asking 1.150K and property taxes in TX are a killer:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/369-County-Road-2602-Mico-TX-78056/87444684_zpid/

It's got some very cool limestone bluffs that you could build a partially submerged house along the ledge - make it bomb proof.

The other thing about that lake, it's on swiss cheese limestone over the Edwards Aquifer so it's leaky at the bottom too.

There is a 10 square mile area that needs to get rained on to fill this lake up near Boerne. Lots of rain lately but not a drop for Medina Lake. No rain in that specific spot, no lake.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/housing-market/article-13293369/san-francisco-housing-market-stumble-crime.html

Nearly 20% of San Francisco homes are sold at a LOSS - with the average seller getting $155,500 less than they paid - as market crumbles amid soaring crime

The number of homes that sold at a loss was four times the national average

GNL says

San Franciscan sellers are actually bringing $155,000 to the settlement table? How long did these sellers own the property?

Good question, and I wonder if they are flippers or investors who are just trying to cut their loses and put their money in Bitcoin or somewhere else.

I don't think they are sellers who are selling their primary homes and are just emergency eggressing from that shithole San Fran.

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I know someone who is going weekends around San Jose, CA to buy preferably a SFH. He sees lot of crowd to compete while the price is high and going up slightly over the last few weeks rather than going down. The new 7+% interest could get some discount in prices. We suspect, they must be cash buyers!

Blue says

I know someone who is going weekends around San Jose, CA to buy preferably a SFH.

Is that Eman ? He's been AWOL for a while and I wonder if he is going to return.

I feel bad for knocking him because he was a fluffer for San Fran Bay Area, and he was descriptive about escaping the Architect and Engineering rat race to work for himself.

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