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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   604,303 views  5,669 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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4766   mell   2024 Apr 17, 1:36pm  

The_Deplorable says


mell says

"If you think housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming."

My take is that higher interest rates are forcing sellers to lower the asking price. Historically this has always been the case.


There are plenty of cash buyers and currently they don't even bid at a discount which is what I would do. The worst houses/location sit for a while right now until there's one or two price cuts then those sell as well. Never seen anything beyond 5-10% discount unless it's a very expensive house, i.e. 5-10 million dollar mansion
4767   GNL   2024 Apr 17, 2:00pm  

WookieMan says

GNL says


I could show you a lot of these. The trend looks down.




Is this national or a local market?

My town, Fredericksburg Va. Tons of active listings have a graph that looks like that. No, I'm not saying national but, Florida is sinking like a turd, sounds like. A Realtor friend of mine is going on a listing appointment today. The seller told my friend that he was the 5th Realtor he called and only he answered. Anyhow, my friend told the seller he'd come take a look at the house only if the seller was willing to relist $100k lower than what another Realtor listed it for. From $699k to $599k. My friend wanted to go even lower, like $575k.
4768   GNL   2024 Apr 17, 2:01pm  

WookieMan says

Why in the flying fuck would someone pay that much for a house? Especially that house. I could build a better, nicer house here in IL for $500-700k. Make the same amount of money.

No doubt. Cali is braindead.
4769   HeadSet   2024 Apr 17, 2:28pm  

GNL says

My town, Fredericksburg Va. Tons of active listings have a graph that looks like that. No, I'm not saying national but, Florida is sinking like a turd, sounds like. A Realtor friend of mine is going on a listing appointment today. The seller told my friend that he was the 5th Realtor he called and only he answered. Anyhow, my friend told the seller he'd come take a look at the house only if the seller was willing to relist $100k lower than what another Realtor listed it for. From $699k to $599k. My friend wanted to go even lower, like $575k.

I thought you were closer to DC. In my area, Williamsburg/JCC, the houses get snapped up fast. The only houses that have been a little slower to sell are in the gated communities, not sure why.
4770   AD   2024 Apr 19, 12:56am  

.

30 Year mortgage rate at 7.1%. It reach 7.6% last October. The last period the 30 Year mortgage was this high was in 2001.

Prices need to drop about 20% from their peak prices set around early 2022 if rates going to stay this high.

I said the 30 year mortgage rate would eventually settle around 5.5% this year. I hope they do to help give some reprieve to the real estate market.

.
4771   GNL   2024 Apr 19, 4:55am  

HeadSet says


GNL says


My town, Fredericksburg Va. Tons of active listings have a graph that looks like that. No, I'm not saying national but, Florida is sinking like a turd, sounds like. A Realtor friend of mine is going on a listing appointment today. The seller told my friend that he was the 5th Realtor he called and only he answered. Anyhow, my friend told the seller he'd come take a look at the house only if the seller was willing to relist $100k lower than what another Realtor listed it for. From $699k to $599k. My friend wanted to go even lower, like $575k.

I thought you were closer to DC. In my area, Williamsburg/JCC, the houses get snapped up fast. The only houses that have been a little slower to sell are in the gated communities, not sure why.


We recenlty moved from McLean Va. to Fredericksburg Va. Closer to the grandkids now + wifey got a better job and my business can be run from anywhere.

Here's a red brick rambler for $800K in Fredericksburg Va...seems crazy to me. That's a McLean price. Used to be, that is. Now the red brick rambler is the #1 tear down target because of the close in location and big lot.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1321-Rowe-St-Fredericksburg-VA-22401/234760679_zpid/
4772   GNL   2024 Apr 19, 5:03am  

AD says


.

30 Year mortgage rate at 7.1%. It reach 7.6% last October. The last period the 30 Year mortgage was this high was in 2001.

Prices need to drop about 20% from their peak prices set around early 2022 if rates going to stay this high.

I said the 30 year mortgage rate would eventually settle around 5.5% this year. I hope they do to help give some reprieve to the real estate market.

.

Interesting. You were saying months ago that a 10% drop is to be expected for every 1% rise in the rate. What was the rate when prices were at their highest? I think something has fundementally changed. The homeownship rate will decrease for years to come imo.
4773   Blue   2024 Apr 19, 6:53am  

Blue says


https://lifestylesunlimited.com/ Mr.Del Walmsley in his radio 1220am show says, right now is the best opportunity to buy as the rate decreases and prices will raise!

In yesterday's show, he says rate is going up and people around have tons of cash to buy. He flips just like that. Good that he is rich and looks like can raise cash to buy.
4774   WookieMan   2024 Apr 19, 7:25am  

GNL says

WookieMan says


Why in the flying fuck would someone pay that much for a house? Especially that house. I could build a better, nicer house here in IL for $500-700k. Make the same amount of money.

No doubt. Cali is braindead.

I've never understood it. Buying houses because of weather and scenery that are massively overpriced for the materials used? There are just as good places nationwide. Guess what, you do different things in the winter. Hell people surf on Lake Michigan in the winter. Hell this time of year is one of the best times to surf.

It's not the 1980's building up to the tech boom. You can make the same money anywhere else in the country with a lower cost of living in 2024. Cali people are swarming Idaho and Montana. Obviously AZ, NV, TX, TN and FL as well. And I don't want to hear the family comment. You can fly anywhere for cheap or free. And stop bitching about me flying BACAH. A lot of you guys are afraid of change and lower home prices out there. Get over it. I can fly a ton and have a cheaper house AND still see family. Get over it.
4775   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Apr 19, 11:09am  

WookieMan says

And stop bitching about me flying BACAH

Not about flying.

About how being a frequent flyer makes you an expert on aviation.

Kind of like how knowing some Californians and occasionally visiting here make you an expert on California. That's silly.
4776   AD   2024 Apr 19, 2:35pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Kind of like how knowing some Californians and occasionally visiting here make you an expert on California.


I don't speak for Wookie and let him slide some when he called my Florida panhandle as some white trash land.

And one does not need to live in California to be an expert on how much of a Democrat shithole it is.

I like how your user name is configured so it does not work on Patnet's search engine. Very slick of you, boy.

.
4777   AD   2024 Apr 19, 2:45pm  

GNL says

Interesting. You were saying months ago that a 10% drop is to be expected for every 1% rise in the rate. What was the rate when prices were at their highest? I think something has fundementally changed. The homeownship rate will decrease for years to come imo.


I think the locked in rate when prices peaked was around 3% to 3.5%.

I'm just "Thriving on Chaos" as far as what is going on around me. Election year politics and machinations are a major factor.

.
4778   Ceffer   2024 Apr 19, 2:50pm  

Are you trying to tear the last shred of anything resembling desirable honor from us? Without the weather, we are less than zero. What a cruel and unnecessary assault. Have you no decency? WookieMan says

Buying houses because of weather and scenery that are massively overpriced for the materials used? There are just as good places nationwide.
4779   HeadSet   2024 Apr 19, 3:38pm  

GNL says

Here's a red brick rambler for $800K in Fredericksburg Va...seems crazy to me.

I agree, that is insane.
4780   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Apr 19, 4:08pm  

AD says


And one does not need to live in California to be an expert on how much of a Democrat shithole it is.

I agree my state is a shithole. I've said so before on patrick's site. We've found a way to make it work for us. We put up with the tradeoffs of the traffic, congestion, fires, quakes, high cost, crumbling infrastructure, politics, etc. taking responsibility for our decision to stay here. Like e-man expressed, proximity to our family and lifelong friends makes the tradeoff worthwhile for us. Family and friends: it's our personal values. It's our shithole.

Besides, if the tradeoffs get intolerable, we can leave. Many have.

Wookie knows that he knows everything about everything: Redneck Riveria, Aviation, California.

That is so silly.
4781   mell   2024 Apr 19, 4:45pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says


AD says


And one does not need to live in California to be an expert on how much of a Democrat shithole it is.

I agree my state is a shithole. I've said so before on patrick's site. We've found a way to make it work for us. We put up with the tradeoffs of the traffic, congestion, fires, quakes, high cost, crumbling infrastructure, politics, etc. taking responsibility for our decision to stay here. Like e-man expressed, proximity to our family and lifelong friends makes the tradeoff worthwhile for us. Family and friends: it's our personal values. It's our shithole.

Besides, if the tradeoffs get intolerable, we can leave. Many have.

Wookie knows that he knows everything about everything: Redneck Riveria, Aviation, California.

That is so silly.


The climate and nature make up for most of if not all of it. I had some of my best years in SF and the bay area in general, towards the end of the dot com boom and up until the plandemic. Also the politics used to be left leaning libertarian for most of the until not that long ago, maybe 10 years, when the left began their never drumpf power grab authoritarian antics. California is a magic place, shitty politics or not, it will be a bittersweet day if and when we leave CA.
4782   Ceffer   2024 Apr 19, 4:58pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

the tradeoffs of the traffic, congestion, fires, quakes, high cost, crumbling infrastructure, politics, etc. taking responsibility for our decision to stay here.

You forgot the DEW razing. Santa Rosa, Paradise, a bit around SoCal, forest fire propagation etc. etc. Of course, a little DEW lottery for the surface dwellers is a small price for living on the fault line and the wonderful wedda.

They must be expecting something soon. Earthquake insurance literally quadruples the homeowner's premium.
4784   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Apr 20, 10:57am  

The_Deplorable says

MBA - Mortgage Bankers Association of America.



https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/1afzr7y/mortgage_demand_fell_to_a_new_30year_low_in/


Yeah. One developer just sold his entire lot of built houses to a corp for cash.
4785   AD   2024 Apr 20, 11:20am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Wookie knows that he knows everything about everything: Redneck Riveria, Aviation, California.

That is so silly.


I give Wookie a lot of margin even when he called my hometown as some white trash town. That is how much tolerance I have. And I confess that I should have given E-man the same margin even though he was a fluffer for California.

Silly or posing as unintended consequences ?
.



.
4786   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Apr 20, 11:21am  

HeadSet says

I agree, that is insane.


Here is insane:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/650-County-Road-262-Mico-TX-78056/87442716_zpid/

Apparently worth around 350K in 2019 but attempting to sell at 1.3M for 205 days so far. Oh and the lake has been empty for years now. Nothing has sold on the 'water front' in 2 years and the people on 'the lake' won't bring prices down to something somewhat closer to reality.
4787   AD   2024 Apr 20, 12:02pm  

.

Look at this as far as in Panama City Beach as far as another "luxury apartment" where a 2 bedroom townhome rents for $2300.

https://www.wjhg.com/2024/04/19/50-million-luxury-apartment-community-opens-pcb/

.
4789   AmericanKulak   2024 Apr 20, 2:04pm  

Nationwide, this year, there is going to be an absolute onslaught of over 1M units of multifamily units finishing construction in 2024

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2024/02/multifamily-housing-market-will-decline-in-2024#:~:text=%E2%80%9CMultifamily%20construction%20is%20forecasted%20to,inflation%2C%20noted%20Nanayakkara%2DSkillington.

Should be interesting now that rents are already softening substantially. I never thought I'd ever see a headline "Rents are higher in Florida than the national average".
4790   GNL   2024 Apr 20, 2:46pm  

AmericanKulak says

Nationwide, this year, there is going to be an absolute onslaught of over 1M units of multifamily units finishing construction in 2024

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2024/02/multifamily-housing-market-will-decline-in-2024#:~:text=%E2%80%9CMultifamily%20construction%20is%20forecasted%20to,inflation%2C%20noted%20Nanayakkara%2DSkillington.

Should be interesting now that rents are already softening substantially. I never thought I'd ever see a headline "Rents are higher in Florida than the national average".

I call BS. How many illegals alone have come into the country over the last year? We need millions of more housing units built El Pronto.
4791   AmericanKulak   2024 Apr 20, 4:25pm  

GNL says

I call BS. How many illegals alone have come into the country over the last year? We need millions of more housing units built El Pronto.

They can live in all the 4 bed/2.5 bath mondo zero lots.
4792   HeadSet   2024 Apr 20, 7:02pm  

AmericanKulak says

They can live in all the 4 bed/2.5 bath mondo zero lots.

They only need one.
4793   AmericanKulak   2024 Apr 20, 9:42pm  

Don't they like to pack it in and have a place to park the dated Bronco or three or four?
4794   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Apr 21, 10:44am  

GNL says

https://sfstandard.com/2024/04/11/cupertino-tiny-house-listed-two-million-dollars/


I remember someone buying a chicken coop in Saratoga for 1M sometime near the dot com period. It was for them to live in though, not the chickens. Maybe in reality it was a tear down and they just wanted the tiny strip of land.
4795   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2024 Apr 21, 5:22pm  

30% houses sold this year went to investors, they all expect rate drops after election with Trump and east money cash flow. not in every state.
4796   HeadSet   2024 Apr 21, 5:24pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

30% houses sold this year went to investors, they all expect rate drops after election with Trump and east money cash flow. not in every state.

I am surprised money folk think Trump will win. It seems those folks would realize the fix is in.
4797   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2024 Apr 21, 5:38pm  

HeadSet says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says


30% houses sold this year went to investors, they all expect rate drops after election with Trump and east money cash flow. not in every state.

I am surprised money folk think Trump will win. It seems those folks would realize the fix is in.


they banking on inflation my guess. i’ve seen a lot of stupid money lately in RE. easy come, easy go… fool and money part fast.
4798   GNL   2024 Apr 21, 6:28pm  

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

HeadSet says


FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says



30% houses sold this year went to investors, they all expect rate drops after election with Trump and east money cash flow. not in every state.

I am surprised money folk think Trump will win. It seems those folks would realize the fix is in.



they banking on inflation my guess. i’ve seen a lot of stupid money lately in RE. easy come, easy go… fool and money part fast.

Watch it work out for investors. Think of what is best for TPTB and that is probably what will happen.
4799   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Apr 24, 9:19am  

This is for purchase financing only, not re-fis.



https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1783158460663632289
4801   WookieMan   2024 Apr 24, 12:27pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says





Yes. And move into assisted living. No new housing will be built to accommodate the sales of their houses. Kids will likely take it over in most cases because the market is so high. Get a no payment house from the parents. No new housing.

I'm an anomaly, but 3 transaction will take place if it works out. No new inventory. My mom will sell her place to me, I buy hers, she buys mine and I build. Technically 4.

I'm a rich bitch technically and hang out with those types. Parents bought a ton of the kids houses for them. They have no payment. Those won't go on the market. My uncle owns all three of my cousins houses on my dads side. They're not moving and one of them will get a $20M home in Scottsdale and keep it. Generational wealth. Childhood friends, girl neighbor and best man in my wedding their dad owns their houses.

The housing market is different now. My other uncle makes $300k+ in pensions. Everything is paid off. Those two cousins worry about nothing. A family friend just recently passed. Majority holder in a regional bank. Guy is about my age. $100M and two properties that I know of that are $20M+ total. He was adopted.... I dislike boomers because they were greedy, but they can't take the money with them. Which is why I think housing will be fine. Inflation is the bigger concern. Hurts me, but interest rates should be 10% plus right now. Fed needed to put the peddle to floor and we're just dragging out what needs to happen.
4802   GNL   2024 Apr 24, 2:18pm  

WookieMan says


No new housing.

Well, I believe this plays into what I've been saying. 1. lower percentage of homeownership going forward and 2. the economy/jobs will take a hit if/when housing sales/transactions/builds get low enough.
4803   RWSGFY   2024 Apr 24, 2:51pm  

GNL says


WookieMan says


No new housing.

Well, I believe this plays into what I've been saying. 1. lower percentage of homeownership going forward and 2. the economy/jobs will take a hit if/when housing sales/transactions/builds get low enough.



No new housing where? There is a shitton of new housing built recently and still being built around here.
Some of it even standing empty or half-empty like that hideous cluster of apartments near Tesla factory.
4804   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Apr 24, 2:53pm  

WookieMan says

Kids will likely take it over in most cases because the market is so high. Get a no payment house from the parents


All houses inherited by my family had to be sold because there was more than one child involved.

Also, children often live far away and so need to sell.
4805   GNL   2024 Apr 25, 5:17pm  

RWSGFY says

GNL says



WookieMan says



No new housing.

Well, I believe this plays into what I've been saying. 1. lower percentage of homeownership going forward and 2. the economy/jobs will take a hit if/when housing sales/transactions/builds get low enough.




No new housing where? There is a shitton of new housing built recently and still being built around here.
Some of it even standing empty or half-empty like that hideous cluster of apartments near Tesla factory.

We are now below 60% of homes owned by the primary residents. We have been declining since 2007, but he have taken a huge hit in 2023 with interest rates so much higher.

https://twitter.com/InsAgencyOwner/status/1695908944202416375

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