patrick.net

B.A.C.A.H. says

The region did not collapse. Just the dot.com did. And the rents.

I was living in a shiitehole in Redwood City at the time.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Before the metro sexual Hipsters were the dot.com Hipsters who came here in the mid-to-late 90's to be part of the scene. The first wave of Smugsters to SF.

I see. I arrived in 97. I'd sort of fell off of the turnip truck at the time with respect to knowing the area and people. Even though I was actually returning after 15 years having moved to Texas with my parents.

While we have more inventory coming onto the market it gets snatched up if there is even a hint of a price cut. Friends, family, and acquaintances get regularly outbid by all cash buyers who pay asking and reduce the contingency period to a few days. If you think housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming.

mell says

If you think housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming.

Did you mean, "If you think Bay Area housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming?"

This is a Fortress Bay Area thread now.
East Bay reporting in. Two bed/ one bath cottages still hanging in there with a median of around $1,000 /sq.ft.

B.A.C.A.H. says

mell says

If you think housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming.

Did you mean, "If you think Bay Area housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming?"

Yeah, but it can be probably be expanded to a general assertion, as long as the area is not a shithole there will be bidders. Most of the places close by I was able to follow the new owners were almost always boomers or gen xers - if not professional flippers. Plenty of money sloshing around with the old generations.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Yup.

That's the difference, mell. You and me live here. We know wtf we're talking about, whereas Wookie is as clueless about the facts on the ground in our state as he is about aviation.

Lol. It's coming. You're in stage 1... https://www.cruse.org.uk/understanding-grief/effects-of-grief/five-stages-of-grief/

Enjoy. I know plenty of Californians. Not just from this site. Your shit show has just started. I'm in the acceptance phase here in IL. You guys are clueless and in the denial phase. It will take a decade to get where I'm at. You'll see. Inflation will make it look pretty on paper. You'll be poorer. That's when the anger kicks in. https://youtu.be/9CZJbrw8mjE?si=J6EuuFQxFdzH6FGt Enjoy. Good tune.

mell says

"If you think housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming."

My take is that higher interest rates are forcing sellers to lower the asking price. Historically this has always been the case.

I could show you a lot of these. The trend looks down.

GNL says

I could show you a lot of these. The trend looks down.

Is this national or a local market?

WookieMan says

Is this national or a local market?

Should be local. Look at a similar pattern for the his house, steep up and slight down
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/749-University-Ave-Los-Altos-CA-94022/19527079_zpid/

Blue says

WookieMan says

Is this national or a local market?

Should be local. Look at a similar pattern for the his house, steep up and slight down
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/749-University-Ave-Los-Altos-CA-94022/19527079_zpid/

Why in the flying fuck would someone pay that much for a house? Especially that house. I could build a better, nicer house here in IL for $500-700k. Make the same amount of money.

There's a huge misconception in this country that is portrayed by the west coast and east coast. That house listed at $6M is shit. I'm not joking when I say it's maybe the worst designed house I've seen. Not hyperbolic, but I've been in well over 1k houses and apartments. That's a fucking $200k house at best. I may have puked a little looking at it. Shit, it may have given me AIDS. I'm sure the school district is top notch.... lol. Not dumping on you Blue, but that's just fucking crazy.

WookieMan says

I know plenty of Californians. Not just from this site. Your shit show

Ha ha ha

That's hilarious. Like being a frequent flyer makes one an aviation expert.

Are your plenty of Californians all white folks?

Whites are the second biggest ethnicity in California at 35% of the population. Even in my own household I am the only white person.

Silly Wookie. The Expert on Aviation and California.

WookieMan says

Why in the flying fuck would someone pay that much for a house? Especially that house. I could build a better, nicer house here in IL for $500-700k. Make the same amount of money.

The buyers will be Rich Folks. Billionaire Asians don't care if they can get a nice place in Illinois for $500K.

There's also some non-Asian new money rich folks who may pay those prices. Those are the types who may leave the state for lower taxes and better value. Good for them.

WookieMan says

That's a fucking $200k house at best.

I would not disagree. Factors including, local on top of state Regulations, 1978 Prop 13, Hi-Tech, Bio-Tech, foreign money etc. can pump up any useless shack to any number. Not sure if you have visited around, most expensive shacks are not really fancy inside IMHO. Those numbers goes to dirt and area exclusivity (not for thieves ;). Not for the real shack though!
Also, the school rating around are slipping down lately, it could be 1978 Prop 13 locking people, LGBTZ+, race theory what not in education etc.

The_Deplorable says

mell says

"If you think housing prices are going to crash you'll have another thing coming."

My take is that higher interest rates are forcing sellers to lower the asking price. Historically this has always been the case.

There are plenty of cash buyers and currently they don't even bid at a discount which is what I would do. The worst houses/location sit for a while right now until there's one or two price cuts then those sell as well. Never seen anything beyond 5-10% discount unless it's a very expensive house, i.e. 5-10 million dollar mansion

WookieMan says

GNL says

I could show you a lot of these. The trend looks down.

Is this national or a local market?

My town, Fredericksburg Va. Tons of active listings have a graph that looks like that. No, I'm not saying national but, Florida is sinking like a turd, sounds like. A Realtor friend of mine is going on a listing appointment today. The seller told my friend that he was the 5th Realtor he called and only he answered. Anyhow, my friend told the seller he'd come take a look at the house only if the seller was willing to relist $100k lower than what another Realtor listed it for. From $699k to $599k. My friend wanted to go even lower, like $575k.

WookieMan says

Why in the flying fuck would someone pay that much for a house? Especially that house. I could build a better, nicer house here in IL for $500-700k. Make the same amount of money.

No doubt. Cali is braindead.

GNL says

My town, Fredericksburg Va. Tons of active listings have a graph that looks like that. No, I'm not saying national but, Florida is sinking like a turd, sounds like. A Realtor friend of mine is going on a listing appointment today. The seller told my friend that he was the 5th Realtor he called and only he answered. Anyhow, my friend told the seller he'd come take a look at the house only if the seller was willing to relist $100k lower than what another Realtor listed it for. From $699k to $599k. My friend wanted to go even lower, like $575k.

I thought you were closer to DC. In my area, Williamsburg/JCC, the houses get snapped up fast. The only houses that have been a little slower to sell are in the gated communities, not sure why.

.

30 Year mortgage rate at 7.1%. It reach 7.6% last October. The last period the 30 Year mortgage was this high was in 2001.

Prices need to drop about 20% from their peak prices set around early 2022 if rates going to stay this high.

I said the 30 year mortgage rate would eventually settle around 5.5% this year. I hope they do to help give some reprieve to the real estate market.

.

HeadSet says

GNL says

My town, Fredericksburg Va. Tons of active listings have a graph that looks like that. No, I'm not saying national but, Florida is sinking like a turd, sounds like. A Realtor friend of mine is going on a listing appointment today. The seller told my friend that he was the 5th Realtor he called and only he answered. Anyhow, my friend told the seller he'd come take a look at the house only if the seller was willing to relist $100k lower than what another Realtor listed it for. From $699k to $599k. My friend wanted to go even lower, like $575k.

I thought you were closer to DC. In my area, Williamsburg/JCC, the houses get snapped up fast. The only houses that have been a little slower to sell are in the gated communities, not sure why.

We recenlty moved from McLean Va. to Fredericksburg Va. Closer to the grandkids now + wifey got a better job and my business can be run from anywhere.

Here's a red brick rambler for $800K in Fredericksburg Va...seems crazy to me. That's a McLean price. Used to be, that is. Now the red brick rambler is the #1 tear down target because of the close in location and big lot.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1321-Rowe-St-Fredericksburg-VA-22401/234760679_zpid/

AD says

.

30 Year mortgage rate at 7.1%. It reach 7.6% last October. The last period the 30 Year mortgage was this high was in 2001.

Prices need to drop about 20% from their peak prices set around early 2022 if rates going to stay this high.

I said the 30 year mortgage rate would eventually settle around 5.5% this year. I hope they do to help give some reprieve to the real estate market.

.

Interesting. You were saying months ago that a 10% drop is to be expected for every 1% rise in the rate. What was the rate when prices were at their highest? I think something has fundementally changed. The homeownship rate will decrease for years to come imo.

Blue says

https://lifestylesunlimited.com/ Mr.Del Walmsley in his radio 1220am show says, right now is the best opportunity to buy as the rate decreases and prices will raise!

In yesterday's show, he says rate is going up and people around have tons of cash to buy. He flips just like that. Good that he is rich and looks like can raise cash to buy.

GNL says

WookieMan says

Why in the flying fuck would someone pay that much for a house? Especially that house. I could build a better, nicer house here in IL for $500-700k. Make the same amount of money.

No doubt. Cali is braindead.

I've never understood it. Buying houses because of weather and scenery that are massively overpriced for the materials used? There are just as good places nationwide. Guess what, you do different things in the winter. Hell people surf on Lake Michigan in the winter. Hell this time of year is one of the best times to surf.

It's not the 1980's building up to the tech boom. You can make the same money anywhere else in the country with a lower cost of living in 2024. Cali people are swarming Idaho and Montana. Obviously AZ, NV, TX, TN and FL as well. And I don't want to hear the family comment. You can fly anywhere for cheap or free. And stop bitching about me flying BACAH. A lot of you guys are afraid of change and lower home prices out there. Get over it. I can fly a ton and have a cheaper house AND still see family. Get over it.

WookieMan says

And stop bitching about me flying BACAH

Not about flying.

About how being a frequent flyer makes you an expert on aviation.

Kind of like how knowing some Californians and occasionally visiting here make you an expert on California. That's silly.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Kind of like how knowing some Californians and occasionally visiting here make you an expert on California.

I don't speak for Wookie and let him slide some when he called my Florida panhandle as some white trash land.

And one does not need to live in California to be an expert on how much of a Democrat shithole it is.

I like how your user name is configured so it does not work on Patnet's search engine. Very slick of you, boy.

.

GNL says

Interesting. You were saying months ago that a 10% drop is to be expected for every 1% rise in the rate. What was the rate when prices were at their highest? I think something has fundementally changed. The homeownship rate will decrease for years to come imo.

I think the locked in rate when prices peaked was around 3% to 3.5%.

I'm just "Thriving on Chaos" as far as what is going on around me. Election year politics and machinations are a major factor.

.

Are you trying to tear the last shred of anything resembling desirable honor from us? Without the weather, we are less than zero. What a cruel and unnecessary assault. Have you no decency? WookieMan says

Buying houses because of weather and scenery that are massively overpriced for the materials used? There are just as good places nationwide.

GNL says

Here's a red brick rambler for $800K in Fredericksburg Va...seems crazy to me.

I agree, that is insane.

AD says

And one does not need to live in California to be an expert on how much of a Democrat shithole it is.

I agree my state is a shithole. I've said so before on patrick's site. We've found a way to make it work for us. We put up with the tradeoffs of the traffic, congestion, fires, quakes, high cost, crumbling infrastructure, politics, etc. taking responsibility for our decision to stay here. Like e-man expressed, proximity to our family and lifelong friends makes the tradeoff worthwhile for us. Family and friends: it's our personal values. It's our shithole.

Besides, if the tradeoffs get intolerable, we can leave. Many have.

Wookie knows that he knows everything about everything: Redneck Riveria, Aviation, California.

That is so silly.

B.A.C.A.H. says

AD says

And one does not need to live in California to be an expert on how much of a Democrat shithole it is.

I agree my state is a shithole. I've said so before on patrick's site. We've found a way to make it work for us. We put up with the tradeoffs of the traffic, congestion, fires, quakes, high cost, crumbling infrastructure, politics, etc. taking responsibility for our decision to stay here. Like e-man expressed, proximity to our family and lifelong friends makes the tradeoff worthwhile for us. Family and friends: it's our personal values. It's our shithole.

Besides, if the tradeoffs get intolerable, we can leave. Many have.

Wookie knows that he knows everything about everything: Redneck Riveria, Aviation, California.

That is so silly.

The climate and nature make up for most of if not all of it. I had some of my best years in SF and the bay area in general, towards the end of the dot com boom and up until the plandemic. Also the politics used to be left leaning libertarian for most of the until not that long ago, maybe 10 years, when the left began their never drumpf power grab authoritarian antics. California is a magic place, shitty politics or not, it will be a bittersweet day if and when we leave CA.

B.A.C.A.H. says

the tradeoffs of the traffic, congestion, fires, quakes, high cost, crumbling infrastructure, politics, etc. taking responsibility for our decision to stay here.

You forgot the DEW razing. Santa Rosa, Paradise, a bit around SoCal, forest fire propagation etc. etc. Of course, a little DEW lottery for the surface dwellers is a small price for living on the fault line and the wonderful wedda.

They must be expecting something soon. Earthquake insurance literally quadruples the homeowner's premium.

MBA - Mortgage Bankers Association of America.



https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/1afzr7y/mortgage_demand_fell_to_a_new_30year_low_in/

The_Deplorable says

MBA - Mortgage Bankers Association of America.



https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/1afzr7y/mortgage_demand_fell_to_a_new_30year_low_in/

Yeah. One developer just sold his entire lot of built houses to a corp for cash.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Wookie knows that he knows everything about everything: Redneck Riveria, Aviation, California.

That is so silly.

I give Wookie a lot of margin even when he called my hometown as some white trash town. That is how much tolerance I have. And I confess that I should have given E-man the same margin even though he was a fluffer for California.

Silly or posing as unintended consequences ?
.



.

HeadSet says

I agree, that is insane.

Here is insane:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/650-County-Road-262-Mico-TX-78056/87442716_zpid/

Apparently worth around 350K in 2019 but attempting to sell at 1.3M for 205 days so far. Oh and the lake has been empty for years now. Nothing has sold on the 'water front' in 2 years and the people on 'the lake' won't bring prices down to something somewhat closer to reality.

.

Look at this as far as in Panama City Beach as far as another "luxury apartment" where a 2 bedroom townhome rents for $2300.

https://www.wjhg.com/2024/04/19/50-million-luxury-apartment-community-opens-pcb/

.

https://sfstandard.com/2024/04/11/cupertino-tiny-house-listed-two-million-dollars/

Nationwide, this year, there is going to be an absolute onslaught of over 1M units of multifamily units finishing construction in 2024

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2024/02/multifamily-housing-market-will-decline-in-2024#:~:text=%E2%80%9CMultifamily%20construction%20is%20forecasted%20to,inflation%2C%20noted%20Nanayakkara%2DSkillington.

Should be interesting now that rents are already softening substantially. I never thought I'd ever see a headline "Rents are higher in Florida than the national average".

AmericanKulak says

Nationwide, this year, there is going to be an absolute onslaught of over 1M units of multifamily units finishing construction in 2024

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2024/02/multifamily-housing-market-will-decline-in-2024#:~:text=%E2%80%9CMultifamily%20construction%20is%20forecasted%20to,inflation%2C%20noted%20Nanayakkara%2DSkillington.

Should be interesting now that rents are already softening substantially. I never thought I'd ever see a headline "Rents are higher in Florida than the national average".

I call BS. How many illegals alone have come into the country over the last year? We need millions of more housing units built El Pronto.