patrick.net

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30 Year mortgage rate at 7.1%. It reach 7.6% last October. The last period the 30 Year mortgage was this high was in 2001.

Prices need to drop about 20% from their peak prices set around early 2022 if rates going to stay this high.

I said the 30 year mortgage rate would eventually settle around 5.5% this year. I hope they do to help give some reprieve to the real estate market.

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HeadSet says

GNL says

My town, Fredericksburg Va. Tons of active listings have a graph that looks like that. No, I'm not saying national but, Florida is sinking like a turd, sounds like. A Realtor friend of mine is going on a listing appointment today. The seller told my friend that he was the 5th Realtor he called and only he answered. Anyhow, my friend told the seller he'd come take a look at the house only if the seller was willing to relist $100k lower than what another Realtor listed it for. From $699k to $599k. My friend wanted to go even lower, like $575k.

I thought you were closer to DC. In my area, Williamsburg/JCC, the houses get snapped up fast. The only houses that have been a little slower to sell are in the gated communities, not sure why.

We recenlty moved from McLean Va. to Fredericksburg Va. Closer to the grandkids now + wifey got a better job and my business can be run from anywhere.

Here's a red brick rambler for $800K in Fredericksburg Va...seems crazy to me. That's a McLean price. Used to be, that is. Now the red brick rambler is the #1 tear down target because of the close in location and big lot.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1321-Rowe-St-Fredericksburg-VA-22401/234760679_zpid/

AD says

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30 Year mortgage rate at 7.1%. It reach 7.6% last October. The last period the 30 Year mortgage was this high was in 2001.

Prices need to drop about 20% from their peak prices set around early 2022 if rates going to stay this high.

I said the 30 year mortgage rate would eventually settle around 5.5% this year. I hope they do to help give some reprieve to the real estate market.

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Interesting. You were saying months ago that a 10% drop is to be expected for every 1% rise in the rate. What was the rate when prices were at their highest? I think something has fundementally changed. The homeownship rate will decrease for years to come imo.

Blue says

https://lifestylesunlimited.com/ Mr.Del Walmsley in his radio 1220am show says, right now is the best opportunity to buy as the rate decreases and prices will raise!

In yesterday's show, he says rate is going up and people around have tons of cash to buy. He flips just like that. Good that he is rich and looks like can raise cash to buy.

GNL says

WookieMan says

Why in the flying fuck would someone pay that much for a house? Especially that house. I could build a better, nicer house here in IL for $500-700k. Make the same amount of money.

No doubt. Cali is braindead.

I've never understood it. Buying houses because of weather and scenery that are massively overpriced for the materials used? There are just as good places nationwide. Guess what, you do different things in the winter. Hell people surf on Lake Michigan in the winter. Hell this time of year is one of the best times to surf.

It's not the 1980's building up to the tech boom. You can make the same money anywhere else in the country with a lower cost of living in 2024. Cali people are swarming Idaho and Montana. Obviously AZ, NV, TX, TN and FL as well. And I don't want to hear the family comment. You can fly anywhere for cheap or free. And stop bitching about me flying BACAH. A lot of you guys are afraid of change and lower home prices out there. Get over it. I can fly a ton and have a cheaper house AND still see family. Get over it.

WookieMan says

And stop bitching about me flying BACAH

Not about flying.

About how being a frequent flyer makes you an expert on aviation.

Kind of like how knowing some Californians and occasionally visiting here make you an expert on California. That's silly.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Kind of like how knowing some Californians and occasionally visiting here make you an expert on California.

I don't speak for Wookie and let him slide some when he called my Florida panhandle as some white trash land.

And one does not need to live in California to be an expert on how much of a Democrat shithole it is.

I like how your user name is configured so it does not work on Patnet's search engine. Very slick of you, boy.

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GNL says

Interesting. You were saying months ago that a 10% drop is to be expected for every 1% rise in the rate. What was the rate when prices were at their highest? I think something has fundementally changed. The homeownship rate will decrease for years to come imo.

I think the locked in rate when prices peaked was around 3% to 3.5%.

I'm just "Thriving on Chaos" as far as what is going on around me. Election year politics and machinations are a major factor.

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Are you trying to tear the last shred of anything resembling desirable honor from us? Without the weather, we are less than zero. What a cruel and unnecessary assault. Have you no decency? WookieMan says

Buying houses because of weather and scenery that are massively overpriced for the materials used? There are just as good places nationwide.

GNL says

Here's a red brick rambler for $800K in Fredericksburg Va...seems crazy to me.

I agree, that is insane.

AD says

And one does not need to live in California to be an expert on how much of a Democrat shithole it is.

I agree my state is a shithole. I've said so before on patrick's site. We've found a way to make it work for us. We put up with the tradeoffs of the traffic, congestion, fires, quakes, high cost, crumbling infrastructure, politics, etc. taking responsibility for our decision to stay here. Like e-man expressed, proximity to our family and lifelong friends makes the tradeoff worthwhile for us. Family and friends: it's our personal values. It's our shithole.

Besides, if the tradeoffs get intolerable, we can leave. Many have.

Wookie knows that he knows everything about everything: Redneck Riveria, Aviation, California.

That is so silly.

B.A.C.A.H. says

AD says

And one does not need to live in California to be an expert on how much of a Democrat shithole it is.

I agree my state is a shithole. I've said so before on patrick's site. We've found a way to make it work for us. We put up with the tradeoffs of the traffic, congestion, fires, quakes, high cost, crumbling infrastructure, politics, etc. taking responsibility for our decision to stay here. Like e-man expressed, proximity to our family and lifelong friends makes the tradeoff worthwhile for us. Family and friends: it's our personal values. It's our shithole.

Besides, if the tradeoffs get intolerable, we can leave. Many have.

Wookie knows that he knows everything about everything: Redneck Riveria, Aviation, California.

That is so silly.

The climate and nature make up for most of if not all of it. I had some of my best years in SF and the bay area in general, towards the end of the dot com boom and up until the plandemic. Also the politics used to be left leaning libertarian for most of the until not that long ago, maybe 10 years, when the left began their never drumpf power grab authoritarian antics. California is a magic place, shitty politics or not, it will be a bittersweet day if and when we leave CA.

B.A.C.A.H. says

the tradeoffs of the traffic, congestion, fires, quakes, high cost, crumbling infrastructure, politics, etc. taking responsibility for our decision to stay here.

You forgot the DEW razing. Santa Rosa, Paradise, a bit around SoCal, forest fire propagation etc. etc. Of course, a little DEW lottery for the surface dwellers is a small price for living on the fault line and the wonderful wedda.

They must be expecting something soon. Earthquake insurance literally quadruples the homeowner's premium.

MBA - Mortgage Bankers Association of America.



https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/1afzr7y/mortgage_demand_fell_to_a_new_30year_low_in/

The_Deplorable says

MBA - Mortgage Bankers Association of America.



https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/1afzr7y/mortgage_demand_fell_to_a_new_30year_low_in/

Yeah. One developer just sold his entire lot of built houses to a corp for cash.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Wookie knows that he knows everything about everything: Redneck Riveria, Aviation, California.

That is so silly.

I give Wookie a lot of margin even when he called my hometown as some white trash town. That is how much tolerance I have. And I confess that I should have given E-man the same margin even though he was a fluffer for California.

Silly or posing as unintended consequences ?
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HeadSet says

I agree, that is insane.

Here is insane:

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/650-County-Road-262-Mico-TX-78056/87442716_zpid/

Apparently worth around 350K in 2019 but attempting to sell at 1.3M for 205 days so far. Oh and the lake has been empty for years now. Nothing has sold on the 'water front' in 2 years and the people on 'the lake' won't bring prices down to something somewhat closer to reality.

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Look at this as far as in Panama City Beach as far as another "luxury apartment" where a 2 bedroom townhome rents for $2300.

https://www.wjhg.com/2024/04/19/50-million-luxury-apartment-community-opens-pcb/

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https://sfstandard.com/2024/04/11/cupertino-tiny-house-listed-two-million-dollars/

Nationwide, this year, there is going to be an absolute onslaught of over 1M units of multifamily units finishing construction in 2024

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2024/02/multifamily-housing-market-will-decline-in-2024#:~:text=%E2%80%9CMultifamily%20construction%20is%20forecasted%20to,inflation%2C%20noted%20Nanayakkara%2DSkillington.

Should be interesting now that rents are already softening substantially. I never thought I'd ever see a headline "Rents are higher in Florida than the national average".

AmericanKulak says

Nationwide, this year, there is going to be an absolute onslaught of over 1M units of multifamily units finishing construction in 2024

https://www.nahb.org/news-and-economics/press-releases/2024/02/multifamily-housing-market-will-decline-in-2024#:~:text=%E2%80%9CMultifamily%20construction%20is%20forecasted%20to,inflation%2C%20noted%20Nanayakkara%2DSkillington.

Should be interesting now that rents are already softening substantially. I never thought I'd ever see a headline "Rents are higher in Florida than the national average".

I call BS. How many illegals alone have come into the country over the last year? We need millions of more housing units built El Pronto.

GNL says

I call BS. How many illegals alone have come into the country over the last year? We need millions of more housing units built El Pronto.

They can live in all the 4 bed/2.5 bath mondo zero lots.

AmericanKulak says

They can live in all the 4 bed/2.5 bath mondo zero lots.

They only need one.

Don't they like to pack it in and have a place to park the dated Bronco or three or four?

GNL says

https://sfstandard.com/2024/04/11/cupertino-tiny-house-listed-two-million-dollars/

I remember someone buying a chicken coop in Saratoga for 1M sometime near the dot com period. It was for them to live in though, not the chickens. Maybe in reality it was a tear down and they just wanted the tiny strip of land.

30% houses sold this year went to investors, they all expect rate drops after election with Trump and east money cash flow. not in every state.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

30% houses sold this year went to investors, they all expect rate drops after election with Trump and east money cash flow. not in every state.

I am surprised money folk think Trump will win. It seems those folks would realize the fix is in.

HeadSet says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

30% houses sold this year went to investors, they all expect rate drops after election with Trump and east money cash flow. not in every state.

I am surprised money folk think Trump will win. It seems those folks would realize the fix is in.

they banking on inflation my guess. i’ve seen a lot of stupid money lately in RE. easy come, easy go… fool and money part fast.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

HeadSet says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

30% houses sold this year went to investors, they all expect rate drops after election with Trump and east money cash flow. not in every state.

I am surprised money folk think Trump will win. It seems those folks would realize the fix is in.

they banking on inflation my guess. i’ve seen a lot of stupid money lately in RE. easy come, easy go… fool and money part fast.

Watch it work out for investors. Think of what is best for TPTB and that is probably what will happen.

This is for purchase financing only, not re-fis.



https://twitter.com/nickgerli1/status/1783158460663632289

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Yes. And move into assisted living. No new housing will be built to accommodate the sales of their houses. Kids will likely take it over in most cases because the market is so high. Get a no payment house from the parents. No new housing.

I'm an anomaly, but 3 transaction will take place if it works out. No new inventory. My mom will sell her place to me, I buy hers, she buys mine and I build. Technically 4.

I'm a rich bitch technically and hang out with those types. Parents bought a ton of the kids houses for them. They have no payment. Those won't go on the market. My uncle owns all three of my cousins houses on my dads side. They're not moving and one of them will get a $20M home in Scottsdale and keep it. Generational wealth. Childhood friends, girl neighbor and best man in my wedding their dad owns their houses.

The housing market is different now. My other uncle makes $300k+ in pensions. Everything is paid off. Those two cousins worry about nothing. A family friend just recently passed. Majority holder in a regional bank. Guy is about my age. $100M and two properties that I know of that are $20M+ total. He was adopted.... I dislike boomers because they were greedy, but they can't take the money with them. Which is why I think housing will be fine. Inflation is the bigger concern. Hurts me, but interest rates should be 10% plus right now. Fed needed to put the peddle to floor and we're just dragging out what needs to happen.

WookieMan says

No new housing.

Well, I believe this plays into what I've been saying. 1. lower percentage of homeownership going forward and 2. the economy/jobs will take a hit if/when housing sales/transactions/builds get low enough.

GNL says

WookieMan says

No new housing.

Well, I believe this plays into what I've been saying. 1. lower percentage of homeownership going forward and 2. the economy/jobs will take a hit if/when housing sales/transactions/builds get low enough.

No new housing where? There is a shitton of new housing built recently and still being built around here.
Some of it even standing empty or half-empty like that hideous cluster of apartments near Tesla factory.

WookieMan says

Kids will likely take it over in most cases because the market is so high. Get a no payment house from the parents

All houses inherited by my family had to be sold because there was more than one child involved.

Also, children often live far away and so need to sell.

RWSGFY says

GNL says

WookieMan says

No new housing.

Well, I believe this plays into what I've been saying. 1. lower percentage of homeownership going forward and 2. the economy/jobs will take a hit if/when housing sales/transactions/builds get low enough.

No new housing where? There is a shitton of new housing built recently and still being built around here.
Some of it even standing empty or half-empty like that hideous cluster of apartments near Tesla factory.

We are now below 60% of homes owned by the primary residents. We have been declining since 2007, but he have taken a huge hit in 2023 with interest rates so much higher.

https://twitter.com/InsAgencyOwner/status/1695908944202416375

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

All houses inherited by my family had to be sold because there was more than one child involved.

Also, children often live far away and so need to sell.

A trust. Hell even an LLC if you're wealthy enough to take the tax bath while you own it. There are plenty of ways to transfer property to multiple kids and they split the proceeds or come to an agreement where whoever takes ownership pays rent to their siblings or get less cash inheritance. There are so many ways that the house doesn't hit the market. I guess maybe people are idiots I suppose?

Literally trying it with my mom. We'll see if it works. She buys my house, we build and I buy her current house as a playground (60 acres). Triple win. No new house even hits the market.

I obviously was in real estate, but I'd say younger people are a bit more savvy than the 50+ people. 50+ could just walk into a bank and buy a house. We have to think outside the box witnessing the massive fuck up of our older peers. I'm at 100% ownership in my peer group of about 20 guys aged 35-45. Most have owned for a decade. Gotta get creative.

A Rebalancing: How America’s ‘Pandemic Boomtowns’ Are Faring 2 Years After They Upended the Housing Market

America’s “pandemic boomtowns”—the places that grew rapidly as remote workers fled there for lower costs of living during the height of COVID-19—have been on a wild, four-year roller-coaster ride.

First, we saw nearly two years of a fast-moving, price-pumping housing market that resulted from the global health crisis. Homes in these towns were selling at breakneck speeds—often well above the asking price—as inventory levels shrank to record lows.

In Denver, for instance, properties were flying off the market in less than a week. In Austin, TX, homes were fetching an average of 10% above the listing price. And in Raleigh, NC, the number of homes for sale dwindled by 80%.

But in spring 2022, the U.S. Federal Reserve began cranking up interest rates to combat inflation, causing a major turn in the market. Potential buyers and sellers began to feel sidelined. And there’s nowhere that felt the burn more than the nation’s pandemic boomtowns.

Cue the stomach-churning free-fall part of the roller-coaster ride.

Today, that electric real estate climate in these cities has fizzled. The depleted inventories have been replenished, homes linger on the market, and sellers increasingly adjust to modest price expectations.

Forgive the cliché, but there’s a “new normal” in some of these places.

As a proud Austinite, Realtor.com® senior economic analyst Hannah Jones has an up-close view of one of these markets.

“It’s been really challenging for sellers here to adjust their expectations because things got so hot, and that memory still feels really fresh,” she says.

Nonetheless, she notes, for buyers in Austin, “there’s a lot more breathing room.”

This rebalancing—between sellers' expectations and buyers' budgets and options—is a theme. At Realtor.com, we can see the areas that had the most dramatic pandemic surges have fallen when we examine the time it takes homes to sell, or what's happened with inventory or prices.

Let's dig into what the numbers show. Using the Realtor.com demand metric, which compares how many page views per listing any given area is receiving to all other areas, we can identify the pandemic boomtowns. We looked at major metro areas where the demand metric rose the most in the two years between the beginning of the pandemic and when interest rates began to rise.

https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/pandemic-boomtown-prices-market-slowdown/

WookieMan says

Hell even an LLC if you're wealthy enough to take the tax bath while you own it.

Tax bath? I know CA fines Californian's $800/year (it probably has gone up) for each LLC they own but otherwise isn't it designed to lower taxes?

https://sfstandard.com/2024/04/27/why-owning-a-home-in-san-francisco-has-never-cost-more/

Home prices in San Francisco may have settled down from the record highs set during the pandemic, but the hidden costs associated with homeownership are skyrocketing.

An analysis from Redfin found that the salary necessary to afford a median-priced home in the Bay Area is $404,332 a year, a nearly 25% increase from the year before. A scan through Zillow confirms that math—the average price for a single-family home remains stubbornly well over $1 million.

Paying for the upfront price of a home is still a buyer’s primary concern. But now, because of factors mostly outside of homeowners’ control, auxiliary costs—like utilities, property taxes, home insurance and maintenance work—are threatening to overtake already hefty monthly mortgage payments.

It’s all adding up to a more complex calculation for those looking to dip their toe in the market, with many first-time buyers already at their limits because of high interest rates. What normally would be a dream come true is quickly becoming a rude awakening for some.

Last year, home ownership affordability in the U.S. plunged to its lowest level since 1984, according to research from financial markets company ICE Mortgage Technology. ...

“The moment you cross the Bay Bridge, the costs double,” Ajdari said, adding that he’s seen workers disperse around the region since the pandemic. Most of the help he brings on tends to commute from the East Bay or Central Valley. ...

For a standard bathroom remodel these days, Ajdari has been quoting his clients at least $30,000 for the cost of labor alone. Any additional electrical work or customizations means extra fees.

The same job would cost half the price in most other states, Ajdari said. In Georgia, hiring a tile setter ran him approximately $3-$5 per square foot. In San Francisco, that number can go anywhere from $18-$30.