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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   604,729 views  5,669 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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4939   SunnyvaleCA   2024 Jul 2, 10:22pm  

zzyzzx says


Last October, Hernandez’s mortgage rate jumped by 2% to 5.125%, the maximum allowed in the first adjustment year

Sounds like year 2008, but at least in 2008 it was 2% ARM verses 5% Fixed — tough to say no to that 3 point difference. Getting a 2% verses 3% fixed in 2016 doesn't make much sense. Lock in 3% forever.
4940   AD   2024 Jul 2, 10:30pm  

SunnyvaleCA says

Sounds like year 2008, but at least in 2008 it was 2% ARM verses 5% Fixed — tough to say no to that 3 point difference. Getting a 2% verses 3% fixed in 2016 doesn't make much sense. Lock in 3% forever.


We locked in a 3% fixed rate for a Veteran Affairs 30 year mortgage in summer 2016, and yes we were tempted by the rates offered in Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs).

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4941   zzyzzx   2024 Jul 3, 4:19am  

WookieMan says

Most people don't need more than a 3/2.5. 2k sq. ft is about all people need in most situations, especially with a basement in our area. We're going 4/4.5, 2,400 sq. ft. Last home we're doing with kids. Anything else will be a condo where I don't have to do shit after 60-65. Probably a 2/2 in a fun/warm area. Bounce back in the summer/hurricane season to IL.


True, but in places like Florida, etc, that don't have basements or attics, a 2000 sq ft house probably doesn't work since they have literally NO storage space.
4942   mell   2024 Jul 3, 7:52am  

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says


Most people don't need more than a 3/2.5. 2k sq. ft is about all people need in most situations, especially with a basement in our area. We're going 4/4.5, 2,400 sq. ft. Last home we're doing with kids. Anything else will be a condo where I don't have to do shit after 60-65. Probably a 2/2 in a fun/warm area. Bounce back in the summer/hurricane season to IL.


True, but in places like Florida, etc, that don't have basements or attics, a 2000 sq ft house probably doesn't work since they have literally NO storage space.

It all depends on how many clothes the wife has
4943   zzyzzx   2024 Jul 5, 11:37am  

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/07/04/whats-the-cost-of-mortgage-rate-buydowns-and-other-incentives-to-homebuilders-lennar-discloses-the-numbers/

What’s the Cost of Mortgage-Rate Buydowns and Other Incentives to Homebuilders? Lennar Discloses the Numbers

In the first half of 2024, the average incentive costs, including the costs of mortgage-rate buydowns, rose to $47,100 per house sold, or to 10.1% of the average sales price, up from 9.2% a year ago.

The costs of those incentives vary by market. In Texas, they reached 16.9% or $51,600 per house. In “Other” regions, which include Florida, they amounted to 13.4%, or $81,700 per house
4944   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jul 5, 3:32pm  

And that is why newly built homes are outselling used homes. Duh.

Not a sustainable practice though, one would think.
4945   AD   2024 Jul 5, 8:12pm  

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Apartment owners are reported to be next as far as real estate defaulting. I noticed rents in Panama City Beach have held steady for the last 2 to 3 years essentially. A 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome within 2 miles of the beach still rents between $2000 and $2200, the same it was back in 2021.

If rent goes down (or does not rise much each year) for these townhomes, then the landlord investors are willing to offer a lower price to buy these townhomes.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/apartments-could-next-real-estate-200023675.html

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"That could be a big problem for investors like Tides Equities, a real estate investment firm based in Los Angeles that bet big on multifamily properties in the Sun Belt. Just a few years ago, Tides Equities owned about $2 billion worth of apartment buildings. That figure quickly grew to $6.5 billion. Now, as rents and prices for those apartments fall, the firm is struggling to make loan payments and cover operating expenses, according to CRED iQ.

Executives at Tides Equities did not respond to requests for comment.

All that said, apartment buildings are likely to be on stronger financial footing than offices, for instance. That’s because multifamily units can be financed by lending from the government-backed mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which Congress created to make housing more affordable."
4947   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2024 Jul 6, 8:07am  

in idaho out here, a lot of people moved in which spiked sales a lot. it keeps going. however interesting enough flippers see losses. 4 different guys who came here tried flipping, 3 lost money and one made very little. no one buys flips here, mainly new construction.
4948   RedStar   2024 Jul 6, 9:31am  

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says






I'm sorry I didn't invest more into Idaho. Its such a landlord friendly state. I miss the Sawtooths so much
4950   AmericanKulak   2024 Jul 7, 11:13am  

Back to 2015 inventory levels in Orlando, Tampa.




4951   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2024 Jul 7, 11:15am  

RedStar says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says







I'm sorry I didn't invest more into Idaho. Its such a landlord friendly state. I miss the Sawtooths so much


it’s pricey here, but as landlord there isn’t appreciation or serious income. frequent tenant turn over. people who rent have very little income. all the wealthy moved to towns by grand tetons and sun valley.
4952   WookieMan   2024 Jul 7, 11:26am  

AmericanKulak says

Back to 2015 inventory levels in Orlando, Tampa.






I hate Orlando and Tampa, so I could see them not being popular. It's the FL ghetto in my opinion. Wife wants to try different parts of FL and I just don't dig it. Jacksonville is a shit hole as well.

Problem is it's not a buyers market until you hit 6 months. The housing bust was 12+ months in many locations. I think at one point our neighborhood we sold the most in got up to 15 months inventory. Got a far way to go for a housing bust. Then they'll just drop interest rates, inflation be damned. I don't think we'll see 2005-2009 again in any of our lifetimes. That was more about lending standards and over building. I don't see either still.
4953   AmericanKulak   2024 Jul 7, 11:38am  

WookieMan says


I hate Orlando and Tampa, so I could see them not being popular. It's the FL ghetto in my opinion. Wife wants to try different parts of FL and I just don't dig it. Jacksonville is a shit hole as well.

Agreed. Orlando never impressed me the first time I saw it as a kid, it was all sprawly. Now it's worse thanks to waves of "internal migration" as well as "international migration". When I see a Kia I keep at least 4 car lengths away. Kias and Beamers. The Greenbelt went out further and further until to live in anything like the edge, you're an hour out as the car drives over high traffic congested highways.

I never liked Tampa, it's actually the wokest, bluest city in Florida, full of retired Minnesota/Winsconsin UltraLeft Schoolmarms on one hand and Methheads on the other. People pick on Miami, but Miami has based Cubans and right wing rich people in big numbers to balance things; Tampa does not. That's why Tampa had a Soros-backed DA, soft on BLM riots, and DeSantis went after the DA and got the "Freedom to Escape Riots in Cars and shoot within 100 feet during riots" bill passed.

Sadly, the "Wild West" part of the South florida East Counties got developed like mad in the past 20 years. I remember my HS Girlfriend's was at the edge of the Savannah, there was a gas station on the main road just before turning on to her street, and beyond that to the West, nothing but the very occasional small modest new house, maybe 1-2/block.

I don't just mean Broward, but like St Lucie. I'm not paying $300k for a 20 year old 1400 sq ft that sits 45 minutes as the car drives in traffic from the beach. Same shit happened in Deltona, western Volusia County : it was a ruralish-retreat, but in the past 20 years is overdeveloped and packed with migrants living 10 to a 4 bedroom. Lee County is now getting Volusia'd.

Went to visit friends who are in the area, and what was once the wild, panther growling wilderness was wall-to-wall I-95 spawl with at least a dozen traffic lights and congestion up the ass.

I should drive over and check out the wild Panhandle-to-Pot area counties like Levy and Dixie, but I don't know the Meth situation there.

I like the FL-GA border west of Jax but well east of Tallahassee, up the Lake City / Osecola National Forest area. Unfortunately not in the cards due to child visitation difficulty. That area never gets hit by any substantial hurricanes and you can still find 5 acres and less zoning restrictions. Also you get a nice "Fall" season December-March.

The Villages are full of elderly drunks and and grandma swingers, as is Tampa, although Tampa has meth heads.
4955   AD   2024 Jul 7, 6:47pm  

AmericanKulak says

I don't just mean Broward, but like St Lucie. I'm not paying $300k for a 20 year old 1400 sq ft that sits 45 minutes as the car drives in traffic from the beach. Same shit happened in Deltona, western Volusia County


try the best place on Earth ... its the American Riviera ... the Florida panhandle...

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4956   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Jul 7, 7:40pm  

HeadSet says

Around here, there is a shortage of home listed because people do not want to sell their homes. One major reason is this example:

Current home, $1,000,000 mortgage at 2% has a monthly payment of $3,696.
Downsize home, $750,000 mortgage at 7% has a monthly payment of $4,990.

Moving to a smaller home at today's interest rates actually can increase the monthly nut and that is after costs like realtor commission and loan origination fees.

It's kind of like that here in California. Because the properties are mostly only reassessed upon sale (*).

If the zillow numbers are correct, a new neighbor on my street has an assessment of 1.05 M with annual tax bill of $15,000, for a 3/2 1200 sq ft 1970 construction with a bit of lipstick on the pig. A few doors away our assessment on 4/2 is about 350k with a tax bill of about $6000 (just a pig, no lipstick).

(*) Major renovations or improvements can cause the place to be reassessed without a change of ownership. Before s/he "went silent" on this blog BayArea shared about something like that happening, or threatened by a county agent to happen, after he upgraded his recent TriValley home. I know someone else, also in Alameda County, who had that happen.
4957   AmericanKulak   2024 Jul 7, 9:17pm  

AD says


try the best place on Earth ... its the American Riviera ... the Florida panhandle...

Too far to drive every weekend to Central FL. :(
4958   fdhfoiehfeoi   2024 Jul 10, 7:35am  

Next housing crash coming soon? I know when we searched for rentals in Yuma, a number of owners were trying to rent after failing to sell for their desired price. And just like last year, a number of rentals dropped their prices a hundred dollars or more before they found tenants. The place we are moving to was originally listed for $100 more a month.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/housing-market-cracks-record-number-listed-homes-have-price-drops
4959   WookieMan   2024 Jul 10, 8:46am  

AmericanKulak says

AD says

try the best place on Earth ... its the American Riviera ... the Florida panhandle...

Too far to drive every weekend to Central FL. :(

Not trying to be a dick, but who wants to be in central FL? We've been trying out different places in FL besides the Panhandle and central FL is a shit hole of crappy tourism and just nasty locals. I'm on AD's side on this one. Southern Florida is nice, but I'd prefer the Panhandle from Appalachicola to Pensacola. Anything between that and Southern Florida is a bunch of carpet bagging douche bags and shitty cops. Fuck ton of cunt New Yorkers. Count me out.
4960   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jul 10, 9:18am  

But the Housing Experts on PatNet told us...
4963   WookieMan   2024 Jul 10, 1:19pm  

zzyzzx says





With inflation that's a nothing burger. Look at the last peak. $500k is where it crashes. We're not there at least in the South. Remember the last peak was loan related. It's more secure/better at this point. Not perfect.

The largest generation is coming online housing wise. The floor is high. Loans more secure. Less building. I wouldn't bet against housing even if it pisses people off. I'm about to drop $700k on a house in small town America. We can and will be able to afford it. I don't even care if rates come down. I simply don't care.

Inflation is killing poor people. People of means and money are doing just fine. That's why Biden loses. If you can't keep up with the Jones' you have to blame someone. Trump has been out of office almost 4 years. Who they gonna blame?
4964   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Jul 10, 1:23pm  

A new 760 square foot home community in Fort Worth by Lennar on the Left

A row of chicken coops on the Right.

Homes are selling for $197k.



https://x.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1811039587633906161
4965   AmericanKulak   2024 Jul 10, 2:26pm  

WookieMan says


The largest generation is coming online housing wise. The floor is high. Loans more secure. Less building. I wouldn't bet against housing even if it pisses people off. I'm about to drop $700k on a house in small town America. We can and will be able to afford it. I don't even care if rates come down. I simply don't care.

Older people get sicker, can't climb stairs, need less house, need equity to pay for assisted living or physical therapy visits.

A million multifamily units are coming on. Localities are now forcing developers to finish them.

We're about to have the largest group of people in US history - born 1957 - start heading for bum knees, wheelchairs, and Oxygen tanks that make stairs and high counters a bitch.

Leslie Lesbo McCormick of Cape Cod doesn't want to move to the Villages when her mother passes away. She's gonna dump the house for the cash.

Interest rates aren't going down this year, and they'll be cut a fraction each quarter.

Expect a massive rental/housing price collapse.
4966   mell   2024 Jul 10, 2:36pm  

True, single level houses have been heavily sought after here by old folks lately. I like stairs, gives you a good workout every day
4968   AmericanKulak   2024 Jul 10, 3:15pm  

$100/sqft or walk.

Also, Geodesic Dome houses have major leakage/rot problems, I discovered. Water gets trapped in all the corners, sometimes from INSIDE the house (ie not coming from the outside, but humidity inside). Very common to them.
4969   WookieMan   2024 Jul 10, 3:21pm  

mell says

True, single level houses have been heavily sought after here by old folks lately. I like stairs, gives you a good workout every day

Takes more land for a ranch hence why you see the "chicken coop" homes in the above comments. Geezers maybe need 800 sq. ft if they want a detached home. Geezer don't want a yard. They can get more per square acre by putting 6 cheaply built homes in one acre.

Housing is math. Boomers didn't save and cannot afford their monstrous houses. They don't want to be embarrassed though by moving into a condo or townhome. So these mini houses with little maintenance are perfect for them. It will become a ghetto when they die though.
4970   AmericanKulak   2024 Jul 10, 3:24pm  

WookieMan says


Boomers didn't save and cannot afford their monstrous houses.

Yes, Wookie - and that's the crux.

They GOTTA sell, esp if they get sick and need additional help.

Problem is, nowhere near enough people to buy them. Hector the Mexican and Alice the $18/hr cashier single mom can't afford $450k for a 1800 sq ft ticky tack shack they don't need and can't buy. With the 30-year old roof and the HVAC system that Uncle Fred put up with because at 72 he didn't notice it's 80F inside the house because the system is on the fritz due to old man heat insensitivity.
4971   AD   2024 Jul 10, 4:15pm  

AmericanKulak says

Problem is, nowhere near enough people to buy them. Hector the Mexican and Alice the $18/hr cashier single mom can't afford $450k for a 1800 sq ft ticky tack shack they don't need and can't buy. With the 30-year old roof and the HVAC system that Uncle Fred put up with because at 72 he didn't notice it's 80F inside the house because the system is on the fritz due to old man heat insensitivity.


yep, its all about housing affordability

such as using rudimentary ratios like housing price to household income ratio to monitor trends with housing affordability

and I agree you have to account for "total ownership costs" or "life cycle costs" which include also maintenance and repair (M&R) ; and that is why a family member is getting a reversible mortgage to help them financially comfortably live in their retirement home

that is why I see it common for Florida panhandle townhomes to be "boarding houses" where each bedroom is rented out

and that is why they are not selling now as the landlord investors are sitting on the sidelines, and from my review of county records, at least 50% of the townhomes are rented

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4972   AmericanKulak   2024 Jul 10, 11:13pm  

AD says


and that is why they are not selling now as the landlord investors are sitting on the sidelines, and from my review of county records, at least 50% of the townhomes are rented

Probably waiting for lower rates I imagine.

One a different tack, one nice thing that I think is happening is that Wokanda is falling because Venture Capital can't keep loaning money as Angel Investors to wokish media with these rates. Their money is no longer "Practically Free".

An Aussie firm just basically shut down and cancelled all their content republishing contracts with Vice, Kotaku, and a bunch of other wokey media .

So many things are coming to a head.
4973   AD   2024 Jul 10, 11:39pm  

AmericanKulak says


Probably waiting for lower rates I imagine.


I wonder how this company Open Door (stock ticker: OPEN) is faring and when will it go bust :

https://www.opendoor.com/homes/colorado-springs

Been hearing about a lot of layoffs recently like today's report of layoffs at John Deere, CNN and Intuit (i.e., Turbotax, etc).

How long before enough voters do not believe the economy is good ? The S&P 500 going up does not help this, as the investor class or Wall Street (not main street) reap the gains.
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4974   AD   2024 Jul 11, 12:03am  

WookieMan says


Boomers didn't save and cannot afford their monstrous houses.


A family member age 75 lives in a home around $950,000 in Colorado on eastern side of Rocky Mountains and bordering a national forest. It cost total around $275,000 for the 5 acres land and to finish building the house in 2002.

They have a 1 bedroom garage apartment they rent for $1300 a month (which includes electricity, heating, internet, water, sewer) and their other source of income is $1300 a month from Social Security.

So I helped them secure a reverse mortgage at a rate of CMT + 1.25% margin + 0.5% FHA insurance. CMT is around 5% this year and tracks 1 year Treasury, so their rate this year should be around 6.75%.

Their closing costs are around $22,000 and the bank is willing to give them up to $400,000.

But they only need about $80,000 to pay off a HELOC at the prime rate, and maybe another $100,000 over the next 25 years to cover maintenance and repair, as well as increase in property insurance and property taxes.

.
4975   zzyzzx   2024 Jul 11, 5:43am  

https://www.redfin.com/news/rents-fall-in-florida-austin-june-2024/

Rent Prices Are Dropping Across Florida’s Most Populous Metros
4976   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2024 Jul 11, 6:08am  

AD says


So I helped them secure a reverse mortgage

Gee, you mean grandma wouldn’t have been kicked out of her two million dollar 1940’s rambler in Solana Beach, and that there was no reason for Prop 13?
4977   mell   2024 Jul 11, 6:28am  

Boomers aren't the ones with a problem unless they need assisted care and hence move out. Our local expensive gym is full of boomers talking about their house projects and vacations while the youth is serving them towels. The boomers are mostly nicely set by cutting their taxes while they were young and now coasting on newly embraced socialism Marxism, fucking over their transgendering youth.
4978   RWSGFY   2024 Jul 11, 9:55am  

mell says

Boomers aren't the ones with a problem unless they need assisted care and hence move out. Our local expensive gym is full of boomers talking about their house projects and vacations while the youth is serving them towels. The boomers are mostly nicely set by cutting their taxes while they were young and now coasting on newly embraced socialism Marxism, fucking over their transgendering youth.


Money needs time to grow. You don't have to be a genius to have couple of mil by the time you are the boomers age. And there is nothing abnormal in not having much money when you're fresh out of school. It's just how money works.

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