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AD says
AmericanKulak says
American Kulak, figure 100 was the index value in 2000. Conservatively apply a 4% appreciation since its Florida (and Professor Shiller said the national historic annual appreciation rate is 4%),
1.04^24 x 100 = 256
How does this compare to local wages over the same time period?
How does this compare to local wages over the same time period?
Can't sustain this if 30 Year mortgage rate is above 5% AND housing prices continue to increase again.
California and allowing foreigners to buy houses
I guess that gravy train of foreigners is no longer running for now to at least the start of the next bubble cycle
Cheap mortgage rates are toast until the Millennials start saving en masse during their pre-retirement years, like Boomers did for the last 15 years until recently.
Corporate owned housing tend to sell when shit goes south w/o batting an eye.
****** per capita (or per person) income in Tampa metro area increased about 3 times or 400% from 2000 to 2024 *******
The two choices are: Double the incomes, or pound the outrageous inflated house values down 50%.
Blackstone liquidating homes in Florida:
https://youtu.be/Wa5r73qp%20-U?si=Y9COD3K_JLjk6koN
Blackstone (though their subsidiary Home Partners of America) is selling off some of its portfolio in Florida. Home Partners of America had a rent to own model that is evidently not working out. Will be interesting to see if this moves the market...
Blackstone is liquidating properties in Florida
In general for prices to correct we need more supply and/or less demand. More supply is not coming very quickly (unless you want to count the apartment housing that continues to sprout up like weeds), and aside from mass death or mass deportations or massive job losses we are not seeing a decrease in demand for housing.
In general for prices to correct we need more supply and/or less demand. More supply is not coming very quickly (unless you want to count the apartment housing that continues to sprout up like weeds), and aside from mass death or mass deportations or massive job losses we are not seeing a decrease in demand for housing.
More supply is not coming very quickly (unless you want to count the apartment housing that continues to sprout up like weeds)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR
Eh? I'm watching a whole fucking side of a pretty big hill being rapidly covered with new SFHs right from my office window. Looks exactly like weeds sprouting up.
According to the latest forecast from RealPage, a property management software company in the multifamily sector, 671,953 U.S. apartment units are projected to be completed in 2024. This would represent the highest level since 1974, the year of then-President Richard Nixon’s resignation.
Sunbelt boom markets, like Austin, where the most supply is coming online, are also the very places where multifamily rents are falling.
Apartments Could Be the Next Real Estate Business to Struggle
Sunbelt boom markets, like Austin, where the most supply is coming online, are also the very places where multifamily rents are falling.
In just half a decade, the median price of a single-family house in Florida rose $150,000, or 60%. According to Redfin, the average cost of a home in March 2018 was approximately $250,000. In March 2023, it was roughly $400,000.
You can.work at Dollar Store and still afford a 2 - 3 bedroom house.
Home Prices Fell in July for the First Time—This Is Good News for Buyers as the ‘Market Is Healing’ By Julie Taylor
Aug 1, 2024
Median home prices fell in July, marking the first-ever seasonal decline in a month that’s typically a peak time for home sales.
The national median list price dipped from $445,000 in June to $439,950 in July, according to a new monthly housing report by Realtor.com®.
This downturn can be attributed to a sluggish summer housing market, with buyers and sellers looking for more economic breaks before making a move.
"Nobody is going to lose those 3.5% mortgages"
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.