patrick.net

WookieMan says

What most don't know is price cuts are a marketing tactic. Even if they're small. Price cuts show up in the buyer's MLS feed that the brokers set up. So even small price cuts can help a buyer see the property again or drop into a new buyers price point. It also gets listings bumped in the IDX feeds to sites like realtor.com, zillow, redfin, etc.

A shitty marketing tactic, then.

When prices continually drop like that, buyers will be incentivised to hold out. Just like when stockholders see their shares' price continuously increase, they are incentivised to hold the stock instead of selling.

WookieMan says

80/20 rule. 80% of buyers are morons when it comes to real estate. 19% have a solid idea of the market. 1% knows their shit. That's why the $1 price cut worked on most buyers. 15 years of anecdotal evidence on 1k+ deals.

Well, I guess that I - at least - am not one of those morons. Or I am because I eventually lose out to the buying moron who does purchase it why I act what is otherwise rationally.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Happening in Central Florida too. They're cutting a few thousand off every 3-4 weeks.

They got a LONG way to go.

Even if the Fed started dropping rates in September, buyers aren't going to bite .

AmericanKulak says

Happening in Central Florida too. They're cutting a few thousand off every 3-4 weeks.

They got a LONG way to go.

Even if the Fed started dropping rates in September, buyers aren't going to bite .

Too late this time of year. School is starting. No one is moving. They can cut all they want. A 60-90 day closing timeline puts you near the holidays in a new house. Next spring will be interesting. Outside of jobs, 90% of people don't "need" to move currently with the rates they have locked in.

No one buying 2 years ago is already moving except in rare cases. The inventory isn't coming up. Prices are down based on interest rates, but they're still selling.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Well, I guess that I - at least - am not one of those morons. Or I am because I eventually lose out to the buying moron who does purchase it why I act what is otherwise rationally.

So you don't own, don't buy and you lose out in 10 years. That's fine. Your choice. I ain't judging. I'm just speaking to what I know is fact. Over 30,000 hours in RE in 15 years. I'm the dip shit. I'll take the heat. I just know what I'm talking about, so it doesn't move my needle.

Every property bought and NOT refinanced WILL be worth more when you sell it in 10 years. Show me a scenario not in a ghetto and you got me. You can't.

WookieMan says

Every property bought and NOT refinanced WILL be worth more when you sell it in 10 years. Show me a scenario not in a ghetto and you got me. You can't.

I can.

After inflation adjusted terms, this nice house is 90% CHEAPER than it was 34 years ago when it was first bought for $500k in 1990. Presently selling for $649k. Look at the pictures of it. It seems well kept up.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/112-E-Ridge-Rd-Charleston-WV-25314/22597118_zpid/



Oh looky! They started playing the little dorky price dropping game you love starting in 2022! Still, if they did sell it in 2022 for their $719k asking price it still would have been pretty much as total loss in inflation-adjusted terms as it will be should they sell it for the $649k price now.

Not a ghetto neighborhood even though it is in Charleston, WV. It's in the ritzy part of town. Yes, every city has at least one of those.

Don't try to move goalposts right now because you didn't explicitly define 'ghetto'. i.e. "Well, the whole state of WV is GHETTO!" or some crap like that. WV is poor but the entire state is not Oakland or Detroit. Certainly not this neighborhood. You made your bed. Tsk! Tsk! Tsk!

Nor should you even try to bitch about me insisting on using inflation-adjustments since that is what most INVESTMENT DECISIONS calculated over time are supposed to be made by, I do believe.

Actually, your problem isn't the vague ghetto definition fuckup. It's assuming every house in America that even does sell for more than bought for makes money in inflation-adjusted terms.

Don't
Even
Try



If those WV hicks parked their $500k into the Fortune 500 and reinvested their dividends instead, they would have had 1,286.70% inflation-adjusted total return. It would be worth $6,933,489.71 right now.

But you are a Certified Real Estate Expert on PatNet! What do I know? I just am good at realizing that you aren't very good with probabilities involving millions of homes in America dispersed in very unique market circumstances.

So next time, you might want to say something more like this:

WookieMan says

In most cases, every propertyproperties bought and NOT refinanced WILL be worth more when you sell it in 10 years. Show me a scenario not in a ghetto and you got me. You can't. That, at least, has been my experience in my XX years in real estate.

I have to agree with DATF on this point. Living in the Charlotte NC area from mid 90's to early 2000's it was always a buyers market. Outside of a few hot locations home prices did not keep up with inflation. For a few blissful years starting in 2019 it was a sellers market and we basically named our price and didn't negotiate on the two homes we sold during this period. I thought "this must be what it's like to live in California" where home prices outpace inflation by double digits.

WookieMan says

60-90 day closing timeline

60 to 90 days? I sold a house in Newport News VA in 2017 and my BIL sold a house in Papillion NE in June 2024. In both cases, the time from signed contract to closing with check in hand was less than a month. Not cash buys either, both houses had buyers with mortgages. I remember decades ago it took 60 to 90 days to close, but the process has been seriously streamlined since then.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

60-90 day closing timeline

60 to 90 days? I sold a house in Newport News VA in 2017 and my BIL sold a house in Papillion NE in June 2024. In both cases, the time from signed contract to closing with check in hand was less than a month. Not cash buys either, both houses had buyers with mortgages. I remember decades ago it took 60 to 90 days to close, but the process has been seriously streamlined since then.

debt increasing business is well subsidized, it’ll never be go down. i don’t understand why people think it’ll crash. our entire fake economy is built on infinite debt and asset price inflation. that’s not changing with either party. everyone benefits from it up top on both sides.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

60-90 day closing timeline

60 to 90 days? I sold a house in Newport News VA in 2017 and my BIL sold a house in Papillion NE in June 2024. In both cases, the time from signed contract to closing with check in hand was less than a month. Not cash buys either, both houses had buyers with mortgages. I remember decades ago it took 60 to 90 days to close, but the process has been seriously streamlined since then.

It's all about the seller. You got lucky. Has nothing to do with streamlining. In most cases it's a buy then sell situation timing two different deals. Your buyer likely didn't have to deal with their own home selling before buying your property. First time home buyer likely.

So yes it can happen in 25-30 days. It's not common at all though. It's usually 5-10 days A/I review before the mortgage even starts. Then another 10 days for appraisal. Then lenders dragging their feet for 10 days with underwriting and title. You're already at 30 days. Then final walkthrough and you're best case 45 days.

Also depends on the type of loan. FHA is 100% 60 days most of the time. Which is the most common loan given the low down payment. Trust me I'm not talking out my ass. Even cash deals take at least 14 days. It would be like me telling some user here how to code. I know little to nothing about coding. I know RE.

WookieMan says

I know RE.

No doubt, but your info may be dated. Bankrate says their average closing time is 43 days and Forbes list the following:



It did not even hit 60 days during the plandemic.
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/how-long-does-it-take-to-close-on-a-house/

HeadSet says

No doubt, but your info may be dated. Bankrate says their average closing time is 43 days and Forbes list the following:

What's the percentage of FHA loans? That's just the AVERAGE days. So 60+ days kind drags the average up. This is one stat where the median makes more sense. It's over 50 days for sure. FHA is the most popular loan.

Getting a loan done is not quick work. Then factor in all the other shit. Inspection, appraisal, radon test (48 hours), etc. just to get past the A/I portion. Then factor in the sellers needs if they need to buy another house. Lenders also don't start the clock once there's a contract. There's no incentive to calling out the reality of a real estate deal. Everyone just wants their money. Saying it take XX number of days is a lie.

Lenders and brokers both lie about it. No one is honest enough or willing to tell the truth. What I'm saying is true.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

I know RE.

No doubt, but your info may be dated. Bankrate says their average closing time is 43 days and Forbes list the following:



It did not even hit 60 days during the plandemic.
https://www.forbes.com/advisor/mortgages/how-long-does-it-take-to-close-on-a-house/

America is 35 trillion in debt… getting in debt is not a problem here. “debt is slavery” and we got lots of it.

https://www.public.news/p/kamala-harris-just-lied-to-the-american

Patrick says

$59k is just below median income. Almost no way they could save up for even a 3.5% down FHA mortgage in 2020. After tax if you pay any and if you have kids, pay rent, you'd be lucky to have $2-3k of after tax dollars in savings. Let me know where these $100k house exist and if I'd want to live there.

Patrick says

maybe in a middle of nowhere. in a city you need at least 200k income. that’s the problem with infinite asset inflation, eventually run out of people who can participate in the pyramid. 30 year mortgages really ballooned housing debts.

Panama City (home to Tyndall AFB and NAVSTA Panama City) is having problems housing for active duty members

Well, the military increases the airman's housing allowance to compensate for local conditions. - It usually just takes a while for the bean counters to move it up. It is more worrisome for privately employed folks.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

maybe in a middle of nowhere. in a city you need at least 200k income. that’s the problem with infinite asset inflation, eventually run out of people who can participate in the pyramid. 30 year mortgages really ballooned housing debts.

Don't live in cities or near them. You won't regret it. Even large suburbs. Small towns under 5k population with a market, gas station and a few restaurants. I'd rather drive an hour to work than live in shit hole cities and suburbs. Or get a mostly work from home job.

WookieMan says

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

maybe in a middle of nowhere. in a city you need at least 200k income. that’s the problem with infinite asset inflation, eventually run out of people who can participate in the pyramid. 30 year mortgages really ballooned housing debts.

Don't live in cities or near them. You won't regret it. Even large suburbs. Small towns under 5k population with a market, gas station and a few restaurants. I'd rather drive an hour to work than live in shit hole cities and suburbs. Or get a mostly work from home job.

Most people don't want to live in small towns where there's little to do and it's boring. There's a reason prices are cheaper there.

porkchopXpress says

Most people don't want to live in small towns where there's little to do and it's boring. There's a reason prices are cheaper there.

Everyone is different. I don't get wanting to live around Home Depot, Target, Walmart, Chilis, Applebees, Kohl's, concrete and asphalt everywhere, light pollution, crime, tiny home lots, etc. Nothing to do outdoors without driving an hour. Generally shitty housing unless you're rich. I'd rather drive 30 minutes to those things once a week if I even wanted to where I live.

Socialize with neighbors. I literally could do something every night with someone if I wanted. If anything there's too much to do. Easier to just hop on the golf cart to a neighbors house and have a few garage beers and play some yard games. Go fishing with the kids. I guess I don't have to commute so I save that time. I also would guess I know 30-40% of the town (adults). 2,200 people.

No chance I'd know that many people in a city or suburb. It would all be fake. I've lived in Chicago and Geneva, an uppity suburb. Chicago was kind of fun in college. There's no land. Geneva got some yard space but it was so uppity it was intolerable. Where I'm at now is exponentially better. Better people. Not redneck IL either. Still close enough to an airport. Can still go to the city and hang and just get a hotel. My life is way better living out in the cornfields.

porkchopXpress says

Most people don't want to live in small towns where there's little to do and it's boring. There's a reason prices are cheaper there.

Young peeps, mostly. This is why exurbs (population 20,000 - 50,000) are very popular.

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2024/8/19/the-housing-market-is-a-bubble-full-of-fraud-and-its-going-to-pop

The Housing Market Is a Bubble Full of Fraud, and It’s Going To Pop

zzyzzx says

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2024/8/19/the-housing-market-is-a-bubble-full-of-fraud-and-its-going-to-pop

The Housing Market Is a Bubble Full of Fraud, and It’s Going To Pop

What exactly does “pop” mean?

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1exslfb/selling_for_less_than_we_paid/

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1exslfb/selling_for_less_than_we_paid/

One sob story doesn’t make a book.

GNL says

zzyzzx says

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/1exslfb/selling_for_less_than_we_paid/

One sob story doesn’t make a book.

And it's the norm to get fucked when you stay put less than 7 years, not an exception.

GNL says

https://www.strongtowns.org/journal/2024/8/19/the-housing-market-is-a-bubble-full-of-fraud-and-its-going-to-pop

The Housing Market Is a Bubble Full of Fraud, and It’s Going To Pop

What exactly does “pop” mean?

I think it is going to slowly deflate but not pop as income catches up with housing cost (mortgage payment or monthly rent).

Here in Florida panhandle seems like prices peaked in early 2022 when the locked-in rate for 30 year mortgage was around 3.5%. Since then I would say income has gone up about 23% such as $15 an hour for entry level (versus $12 an hour).

So if the 30 year rate returns to 5.5% by this December (as I predicted about 10 months ago) then housing should return to nearly same affordability level as it was in early 2022.

One thing I'd do if I could not allow the buyer to assume my low rate VA or FHA mortgage, then I'd at least offer to buy down their mortgage by 4 discount points, so it drops from 5.5% to 4.5%.

.

.
median housing price should be at $380,000 based on 7% annual appreciation since 2013 (~$180,000) as the last 11 years have been a red hot market for housing after recovering from 2007 to 2012 collapse , as it is just the way it is in a boom-bust or roller coaster economic environment

housing costs have decoupled from household income starting again in 2013

that means housing has to drop 10% from $420,000 to around $380,000 (while household income has increased at least 20% since early 2022

thanks to the Wolfman at Wolfstreet for the chart who gives excellent analysis on housing affordability, federal debt load and other major finance topics
.



.

Eric Holder says

And it's the norm to get fucked when you stay put less than 7 years, not an exception.

good rule of thumb about planning on staying put for 7 years after you buy a home to recover the closing costs and also recover from a drop in price

,

Someone recently told me Nashville prices are down 37%.

out here it’s different. housing ballooned because a lot of people moved in from outside, mostly retirees with good finances. housing doesn’t go up here much otherwise if ever, because people’s work is often seasonal and not stable. so 30 year mortgages aren’t like CA where money is free flowing. i come to realize that i hate everything about housing in ca and artificially subsidized housing inflation driving people into debt slavery. i own few rentals myself now, and yet i still hate the system. i wish housing wasn’t ballooning, because i see how it fucks people over and takes away their dignity.

Sort of a couple of trip reports:

1. My high school pal who is senior at DR Horton and who was overseeing 150 houses being built at this same time last year says they aren't doing anything right now.

2. I just remodeled a rent house that easily fetched $2050 monthly rent before the remodel and almost no showings the past 2 weeks. One low ball offer that soon will have made sense to accept. One price drop so far. I've never had a vacancy like this since I started it in 2013.

(San Antonio)

SoTex says

Sort of a couple of trip reports:

1. My high school pal who is senior at DR Horton and who was overseeing 150 houses being built at this same time last year says they aren't doing anything right now.

2. I just remodeled a rent house that easily fetched $2050 monthly rent before the remodel and almost no showings the past 2 weeks. One low ball offer that soon will have made sense to accept. One price drop so far. I've never had a vacancy like this since I started it in 2013.

(San Antonio)

wide range of consumers are finally pushing back ? look at what Amazon and Disney CEO's said about consumers cutting back

Subway CEO said same thing and explains why they now offering $6.99 for a footlong sandwich (normally $11) whereas it was $5 a footlong back in 2014

McDonalds CEO said McDonalds to offer more than the $5 meal deal to get customers back to the food chain

in Panama City Beach on east side, I noticed 3 bedroom townhomes going for same rent price ($2100) as they were in 2021

.

AD says

wide range of consumers are finally pushing back ?

I don't know that this is true for rental housing. Lots and lots of apartments have been built here over the last decade. As well as rental houses. I just moved to a remax rental from a progress residential estate rental. Progress is one of those nameless faceless companies that have been buying up all of the stock. I wanted to check out my competition and they are definitely scammers. So maybe people purposely are avoiding those? Small mom and pops I doubt.

Another thing I've noticed is during recessions rents actually drop and in the SF Bay Area in particular by A LOT. People start moving in together to save money.

Twice in the bay area it was as if someone picked up the region and shook out half of the people. The dot com crash and the financial crash. Both times lots of empty units in my buildings and I was able to ask for (and get) a significant rent reduction.

Side note: I sent messages to a Realtor 2 months ago about wanting to rent one of the houses they had advertised. No response.

Yesterday they reached out to ask if I was still interested in buying a home.

I told them too late, nice if you'd responded about the rental 2 months ago. Additionally I don't buy 'homes' I buy 'houses' and I happen to have one for rent on the MLS that pays a nice fee to the agent that helps me get it rented lol... I sort of turned the tables on him. He wasn't interested for whatever reason. Such a dumbass.

I keep texting his phone about all of the nice features this house has... Like new floors haha...

Mortgage rates dropped to 6.50%, the lowest since May 2023, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association today. But instead of re-igniting demand for homes from buyers who need mortgages, these dropping rates have caused potential buyers to wait for mortgage rates to drop further, and to wait for home prices to drop, as prices are way too high, and so demand has dropped further, with applications for mortgages to purchase a home dropping toward their historic lows.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/08/21/home-buyers-strike-expands-even-as-mortgage-rates-drop-to-lowest-since-may-2023-but-surging-refis-will-speed-up-the-feds-qt/

Despite Xiden-Kamunist Propaganda, nobody believes the economy is getting better or will be better in 2025. Everybody knows the rates are going to be cut at some point in the next quarter or so.

SoTex says

1. My high school pal who is senior at DR Horton and who was overseeing 150 houses being built at this same time last year says they aren't doing anything right now.

As the saying goes, location. No one wanted to build in IL for about 17 years now. You can't find a home in my area. So they're actually building again. Much of it is one off custom builds though. There are a few subdivision communities near(ish) to me and they're almost all built out finally.

I don't see land acquisition though for new subdivisions. Developers got burned here and are hesitant to buy more land and build more unless there's a contract to build the houses. Used to be they'd pop up 20 houses and just sell them.

The custom home builders are doing well by me. They pop out 2 per year and make $200k or more personally and visit the job site for 2 hours to check in on the subs. There is no "used" housing inventory so people are finally being forced to build.

My guess is places like TX, AZ, FL, CO, ID, TN and even MT are going to see a slow down for sure of building and prices. When a place like CA, NY and IL sees an exodus to these types of states they get all excited and overbuild. Factor in inflation and interest rates, the first states are going to get hit the hardest. Nevada might be on there as well. Most other states I think will stay within 5% of their local median. Those other states dragging down the national median making people think it's a crash.