patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

The coming Fed Rate cut is already priced in by the banks. Wall Street fled the SFH market last year.

Needs to be 3.5% to adjust for median income, something that happened for a few months in the last 25 years.

And 2.75% to adjust for the 25-30% nationwide increase property tax and insurance markups these last few years. And the AirBNB battering from both the Economy and from Local Ordinances.

Peak price around Florida panhandle was in early 2022 with a locked in 30 year mortgage rate of 3%.

For every 1% increase (or decrease) in the 30 year mortgage rate, it is equivalent to a 10% increase (or decrease) in home prices.

So if the 30 year rate steadies around 5.5% by next February, as I forecast, then the median home price should be 25% below peak price.

However, this is a very conservative estimate since household income in the Florida panhandle has increased by about at least 15% since early 2022.

So maybe it should only go down about 10% to 15%; a 3 bedroom , 2 car garage townhome about 2 miles from beach in Panama City Beach (a barrier island), sold in early 2022 for around $330,000. Its market price is now around $285,000.

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AmericanKulak says

WookieMan says

FL saw an influx of retirees and thought it wouldn't stop. It is.

Yup. And this has happened before with gaps between the Greatest and the Silents, too.

Ok, Demographics is Destiny (as Larry Sabato states).

So you mean there was an economic slowdown like migration to Florida between the World War 2 generation (Greatest Generation) and the Silent Generation (Korean War Generation) ?

I wonder if Florida has gone a lot more Republican because a replacement of the older Jewish population in South Florida (Greatest and Silent Generations).

Now with Baby Boomers leaving work force for next 5 years , I wonder if that is why we see a lot more job vacancies and a decent labor market despite the economic slow down ?

10 to 15 years ago it was very hard to get a teacher position within the public schools. Now look at how easy it also is to get into the trades like HVAC repair.

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WookieMan says

When you don't build that shit was fake. FL saw an influx of retirees and thought it wouldn't stop. It is. There goes the market. It's pretty basic if you think about it. Covid bump and poof, it's over. 2-3 years from now I'd be intrigued in the FL market after it crashes. It's got a way to go.

The Florida panhandle is unique from this as you get a lot of people from Alabama and Georgia that want to move down here who are in the 20s and 30s.

All of LA (lower alabama) is setting up shop in the Florida panhandle like moving their manufacturing operations here, let alone you have a military presence from Pensacola to Tyndall AFB in Panama City, Florida.

Its not the same retirement demographic like The Villages or Boca Raton.

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The big lie is that we never built enough housing; the real truth is we built enough, a million a year, but the wrong kind.

Single Childless Cat Mom Middle Aged Florida Teachers don't need and can't afford to really keep a $420k 4 bed/2 bath.

At 4% or 7%. And definitely not with the 30% blowup in insurance and property taxes.

AirBNBs are taking a beating; the strategy of buying a zero lot in the burbs a half hour from attractions/tourist areas is dying in most places; actual owners are up in arms and inflation is smashing travel budgets.

AmericanKulak says

The big lie is that we never built enough housing; the real truth is we built enough, a million a year, but the wrong kind.

Single Childless Cat Mom Middle Aged Florida Teachers don't need and can't afford to really keep a $420k 4 bed/2 bath.

At 4% or 7%. And definitely not with the 30% blowup in insurance and property taxes.

Yeah, my master insurance for my HOA (townhome community within 2 miles of beach in Florida panhandle) had $58,000 for insurance premium in 2018. Now it is around $325,000.

In 2018, I was paying $800 for HO-3 insurance for my townhome (1% deductible and $180K replacement value) and now pay $1900 (with 2% deductible, $250k replacement value).

AmericanKulak says

AirBNBs are taking a beating; the strategy of buying a zero lot in the burbs a half hour from attractions/tourist areas is dying in most places; actual owners are up in arms and inflation is smashing travel budgets.

That's what is taking a bite out of the working class finding affordable housing in Panama City Beach even as some townhome HOAs allow vacation rentals.

I am glad AirBnB stock is down 50% from its all time high set around February 2021.

They converted a lot of existing and new housing on the beach (not just condos on the beach) to AirBnB. From my data, at least 92% of the condos on the beach are short term rentals.

So that was not enough and they started to convert housing on Panama City Beach to short term rentals, such as housing that is within a 5 minute walk of the beach.

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AmericanKulak says

The big lie is that we never built enough housing;

I am seeing rent at least staying at 2021 levels if not slightly below that for east end of Panama City Beach, and that includes Urban Blu apartments. And they just broke ground on Hathaway "Luxury" Apartments just down the street near Urban Blu Apartments.

So it seems just buy the asking rental rates that supply has caught up with demand.

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AD says

Now with Baby Boomers leaving work force for next 5 years , I wonder if that is why we see a lot more job vacancies and a decent labor market despite the economic slow down ?

Boomers that could retire already did and moved. The ones that can't retire stay put and work until they die or end up in a home. The big Boomer sell off has already happened. I don't think people realize this.

You have a bunch of 65-80 year old lunch ladies, servers and Home Depot clerks that couldn't 100% retire. They likely downsized already and stayed near family. $300/wk and some SS money. The Boomer generation has moved to FL and AZ already at this point. Those states are going to see a price drop for sure.

Regionally within the state, I think the Panhandle actually does well, maybe a slight drop. The central coastal areas I could see take a baby seal beating of 20-30% drop. Miami will generally always do fine. Condos might take a hit. Condos in general are a bad position to be in, in my opinion. You got the now biggest generation having families. They ain't living in condos. Boomers got their condos. That's a market I wouldn't touch anywhere. HOA's can eat cock as well. If you're well off and don't want to do anything there's still demand. Just not remotely enough to justify prices.

Places like Tampa, Fort Myers, Sarasota, Orlando are going to eat shit price wise. I'm not super familiar with the East coast, but I'm guessing they might be in for a dick in the ass stabbing price wise over the 2-4 years. Won't be a "crash" "crash" but people gonna lose some money.

AZ scares me as well as old people get cold when they're dying. They build retirement communities like they're going out of style. At some point the demographics aren't there to fill them up. So I see some trouble in the AZ market. I don't think it will move the overall market there. Could be job losses though as the geezers die and service jobs start dying off as the non wrinkled people don't have anyone to assist.

Could just move to IL. Lol. Prices are low outside of metro areas. Won't ever give away my town, but outside of winter, if you didn't like it you'd be a common retard. We make our own fun.

"HOA's can eat cock."

No doubt.

WookieMan says

AZ scares me as well as old people get cold when they're dying. They build retirement communities like they're going out of style. At some point the demographics aren't there to fill them up. So I see some trouble in the AZ market. I don't think it will move the overall market there. Could be job losses though as the geezers die and service jobs start dying off as the non wrinkled people don't have anyone to assist.

yes as nursing homes have to lay off people because they are no longer at full capacity

they can repurpose the retirement homes if that is possible and then wait for another 20 years until they get enough of a demographics change to return to full capacity

I think of the shopping mall as 40 years ago I would have never though they would go out of style , and now where I live they are repurposing the Panama City Mall
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I know inflation is propping up prices but how much longer can it last for places like CA. After reading about insurance increases in CA I got a few quotes for my old house I sold. In 2020 my last insurance payment was 1150 now it's around 3k that and property tax the couple that bought my house are paying almost a thousand a month in tax and insurance. Add in car insurance and other cost of living increases and I don't see how everything is still going. Is everyone still there seeing these increases?

AD says

yes as nursing homes have to lay off people because they are no longer at full capacity

My wife works at a nursing home and they charge $7k/month per person. That's for living there, plus medication service, laundry, dining and some events.

Other services charge $1,200 - $3k more on top of that. Like assisted showering.

Two residents moved put back to their families. My wife also worked direct for families, on the side. But all that dried up earlier this year.

Better pray TeslaBots are advanced enough to wipe our butts on the cheap when we hit our seventies.

WookieMan says

Boomers that could retire already did and moved.

Yep. For the most part this is the case; I'd say most of the boomers who could buy are in. There might be a handful trying play catch up, and wait/work a few more years and sell their Northern property first, but they're a minority and the most vulnerable to a downturn.

WookieMan says

Places like Tampa, Fort Myers, Sarasota, Orlando are going to eat shit price wise.

Already happening; Orlando now is mostly in the $300ks; the Southwest around Myers took a beating.

It'll start in Condos first, then spread to townhomes and SFH near the beaches, then outward. Florida is very dependent on retirees freely spending for jobs, too. It's extremely sensitive to old people spending money on dining out and day trips and shopping, as well as tourism. Many governors are trying to diversify out into other things but it's only been a drop in the bucket.

RC2006 says

I know inflation is propping up prices but how much longer can it last for places like CA. After reading about insurance increases in CA I got a few quotes for my old house I sold. In 2020 my last insurance payment was 1150 now it's around 3k that and property tax the couple that bought my house are paying almost a thousand a month in tax and insurance. Add in car insurance and other cost of living increases and I don't see how everything is still going. Is everyone still there seeing these increases?

i feel like the invisible government & corporate hand is artificially torturing californians to get people to move and spend elsewhere. creating temporary boom economically in red states. it feels too artificial.

AmericanKulak says

It'll start in Condos first, then spread to townhomes and SFH near the beaches, then outward. Florida is very dependent on retirees freely spending for jobs, too. It's extremely sensitive to old people spending money on dining out and day trips and shopping, as well as tourism. Many governors are trying to diversify out into other things but it's only been a drop in the bucket.

They diversifying the economy in Panama City Beach (Bay County) and Florida panhandle away from tourism and senior care.

Bay County has Eastern Shipyard and NAVSTA Panama City and Tydnall AFB. Also it has a major port which has manufacturing like Berg Pipe and Oceaneering.

They also got a Trane manufacturing plant in north Bay County, and Gulf Coast State College just north of Panama City Beach.

They just got a major electrical manufacturer at the local industrial district by the airport that makes transformers and switch boards.

Pensacola just got some new yacht and Americas Cup design and manufacturing facility.

They talking natural gas in the Florida panhandle near the Alabama border but not sure how long it will economically take to make it more accepted by the locals, as some are against drilling offshore.

Maybe with rise of EV's there will be greater need for natural gas production if solar and wind are not enough (by the way Florida panhandle in general gets a grade of a B for solar and also for wind power).

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DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

My wife works at a nursing home and they charge $7k/month per person. That's for living there, plus medication service, laundry, dining and some events.

Other services charge $1,200 - $3k more on top of that. Like assisted showering.

Two residents moved put back to their families. My wife also worked direct for families, on the side. But all that dried up earlier this year.

Better pray TeslaBots are advanced enough to wipe our butts on the cheap when we hit our seventies.

Need to be more innovative with senior care like have group homes or boarding houses certified by the state for senior care.

Need innovative ways for well being and health care for seniors like using bidets for toilets and doing a daily check using a humane tool to ensure the butts are clean and the genital areas are clean as well.

I would look into a spray that helps kills fungus and any infections in those private areas.

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FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

i feel like the invisible government & corporate hand is artificially torturing californians to get people to move and spend elsewhere. creating temporary boom economically in red states. it feels too artificial.

you got foreigners like Chinese and Indians buying up real estate in California, then those that sell and escape California to go to Idaho, Arizona, Nevada and Colorado

that is in part why Colorado especially Colorado Spring real estate has done very well

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AD says

Bay County has Eastern Shipyard and NAVSTA Panama City and Tydnall AFB. Also it has a major port which has manufacturing like Berg Pipe and Oceaneering.

You got Eglin and Hurlburt to the West of PC as well. Pretty good military presence in the Panhandle overall. That supports the economy there and the floor on housing should be high.

Besides the barrier island homes, prices should be pretty stable there inland. Lower insurance too. Would take a cat 5 to knock down houses inland 5-20 miles. Flooding I suppose being the bigger issue.

Used to go down there multiple times a year. Might do something in November and fly into Destin or Pensacola. Haven't been in 2 years. Should be clear of hurricanes and still somewhat warm. I know October is the warmest the Gulf gets. Usually been a March-May and Dec-Jan visitor.

Every minute I can get out of IL during our cold months adds days and years to my life. At least I think so.

"I can't believe we only hired the worst people at the lowest pay and Grandma got maltreated! I want my Porsche for the price of a Mitsubishi Mirage!"

AmericanKulak says

"I can't believe we only hired the worst people at the lowest pay and Grandma got maltreated! I want my Porsche for the price of a Mitsubishi Mirage!"

that is why they need more innovation and modernization of ideas as far as senior care

one is to use a spray that can help prevent infections like mold related in private areas , as I have read that this is a high risk matter for seniors who lack a lot of mobility and do not bathe regularly

I would encourage using a bidet on the toilet that has some solution connected to it to help sanitize their anus area and butt

another is to rely on group houses for senior citizens and use technology like motion alarms , Wyze cameras with AI, Simpli Safe alarm system, etc.

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AD says

that is why they need more innovation and modernization of ideas as far as senior care

They'll push to minimize trained staff, make sure admins are cutting everything to the bone and overbilling medicare, etc.

"Meet Rico, your Venezuelan Gang Member Patient Care Tech at $10/hr. Gee, I wonder what happened to your mother's muscle relaxers and painkillers? Our highly trained $11/hr nurse aides Latasha, LaTonya, LaFonda, and LaHonda the CNAs are happy to help with their right fist-- I mean, both arms!
Hmm, the camera wasn't recording that day... she must have fell out of bed and hit her eyesocket on the side of the nightstand...

Hold on while I add a $300 charge to medicare for the 3 changes of applied ice pack and send $22 of that to LaFonda for her two hours of work... LaFonda said she had no idea how your mother got a black eye...

Chernobyl Farms makes these prepackaged meals, and it helps Ukraine recover! Medicare pays $15 for each packaged meal and they cost us only $3! That's a profit over $40 for us - ooops, I mean innovative savings with healthy outcomes, each day! "

BigHealth will literally try anything except making sure there are adequately trained and paid staff in quantity. Instead, they work them 60 hour mandatory overtime, have mandatory shit shifts with no differential by law, and cry when they go back to other states.

Hopefully the insurers will get involved because the State is deep captured and ramp up the premiums into the stratosphere for understaffed facilities. But then BigHealth will just institute Institutional Insurance Premium cap increases with their captured legislatures.

AD says

I would encourage using a bidet on the toilet that has some solution connected to it to help sanitize their anus area and butt

The way you word this is hysterical. I do want a bidet though in our new build. We have the room. Anus area though... lol. You got me laughing like I haven't in a while. Kudos.

AmericanKulak says

Hopefully the insurers will get involved

I agree the insurers will ensure no price gouging by the greedy senior care and nursing home companies.

The insurers can send in inspectors and auditors also because the state and county regulators may be lacking in their oversight.

The CNAs and senior care / nursing home workers need to unionize. I think that may help bring more professionalism and better care, and would screen out the behavior you mentioned by LaFonda or Latasha.

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WookieMan says

The way you word this is hysterical. I do want a bidet though in our new build. We have the room. Anus area though... lol. You got me laughing like I haven't in a while. Kudos.

You can get the bidet built into to the newer toilet. Sprays asscrack, genitals, and will clean the underneath of the seat and ring area when closed.

IBathroom is next after muh kitchen to lounge transformation.

I just need this fucking build going. This has been too long. I'll put a bidet in the fucking garage if it gets done. Regulations and easements are piles of shit that I need cleaned from my fucking anus area.

My pinky up personality has me 2nd guessing not just getting a developer built home and not going custom. Builder grade is pure trash though. This is taking way too long. Not moving for 20 years though. Maybe a vacation home or part time residence and one of the kids can handle the IL house while we're gone.

I just want my drum/recording room. Been fucking pissing me off for at least 3 years. I want to play again. I want to record. If we don't release it publicly I'd love to post it here. Old band we're on all the services and you'd find me and my name in minutes if I post here. I'd like to share, but never got enough traction so not worth getting doxxed. I actually trust most here, but the occasional dip shit, crazy person comes along. Not risking it with 3 kids and a wife or my friends.

WookieMan says

AD says

I would encourage using a bidet on the toilet that has some solution connected to it to help sanitize their anus area and butt

The way you word this is hysterical. I do want a bidet though in our new build. We have the room. Anus area though... lol. You got me laughing like I haven't in a while. Kudos.

its a public health matter

i would connect a sanitizer solution to the bidet so as to disinfectant problematic areas of the body like anus area

this is the best way to promote the health of seniors since they may have trouble cleaning up from themselves after going to the bathroom

i dual majored at university of michigan at ann arbor in mechanical engineering and industrial/operations engineering, so my industrial engineering education reinforced promotion of innovation and productivity

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Bidet is one of the great European inventions

Interesting as now Colorado Springs is a cooling market

https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/colorado-springs-co/

mell says

Bidet is one of the great European inventions

The only one. Maybe global wars they've done a good job at? Sorry I don't like Europe. Everything around Europe is a fuck show.

AD says

Interesting as now Colorado Springs is a cooling market

CO is going to get its ass bashed. Denver as well. The CO weed boom is over with most states legal now. Fracking could maybe save it if Trump wins. But housing is too expensive out there. People don't want to live in the Eastern flat part. People want houses near the foothills and mountains. Good luck getting in under $500k.

Also I-70 is a fuck show. They need 8 lanes total to Keystone from Denver They need probably $80B at least to widen that interstate and the Eisenhower tunnel. The economy is recreation. That's a massive choke point. I'd be selling now there if you think Kamala has a chance to win. CO will get bad. Don't know her policies so I'd run from CO. Probably a top 3 state with the most to lose in the country with Kamala.

WookieMan says

Also I-70 is a fuck show. They need 8 lanes total to Keystone from Denver They need probably $80B at least to widen that interstate and the Eisenhower tunnel. The economy is recreation. That's a massive choke point.

Need to promote more public transportation like buses since a rail solution is not feasible

My mom mentioned this is becoming more popular: https://ridebustang.com/bustang/?section=routesmap#west_line

AD says

Need to promote more public transportation like buses since a rail solution is not feasible

Lots of layers to this onion, at least for CO. One I'll never get on a bus. I have plenty of friends, but I'm not sharing space with people with planes being the exception to that rule. Commercial flight is 90% automated and turn some knobs and talk to ATC. I drive if I want to go somewhere. I don't trust other people when driving. Shouldn't admit this but I drink and drive in Montana. That's how little I trust other drivers. No DUI's ever and last ticket I was 18.

I-70 is a shit show 365 days a year. Denver is lame, so you go into the mountains. I'll go to Red Rocks in the summer, that's not bad. Going further west the traffic is god awful. A 90 mile drive turns into 6 hours. No one knows how to down shift and coast down a mountain without hitting the brakes every 3 seconds. So then everyone else starts braking and a traffic jam is formed. The auto parts stores and mechanics probably make a killing out there.

People that migrate to CO and haven't been are in for a rude awakening. You gotta wake up a 4am if you're going west. 7 days a week. Skiing/boarding, parks, hiking, etc. It's why I'll stick with Montana. Big Sky priced out the losers. So traffic is way less. You got the largest ski resort in the country and there's no traffic on 2 lane roads. CO has too many average ski hills. Haven't boarded in UT, but I've heard that is better. CO seems overrated. Hence why I don't think housing will do well there.

Places suited for public transportation are mostly pre wwii era cities. After that all US cities were built on a NSEW grid. Public transportation can get you only Lat or Lon in your travel. You then have to wait for another ride to continue on the opposite axis.

It was short sighted but equally foolish to try to shoehorn a public transportation into that.
Cities with excellent PT has many streets that run diagonally. You can go from southeast to northwest on one ride. That is the only reason it is so good. And the only reason PT is preferred in those cities is because the street are narrow and the can't accommodate more lanes. Or personal transportation would be preferred.

PT only has value when it is expedient and efficient, nobody wants to spend 2 hours and 3 to 4 connecting rides. To take a trip that takes 45 minutes in heavy city traffic if you driving your own car.

Tenpoundbass says

PT only has value when it is expedient and efficient, nobody wants to spend 2 hours and 3 to 4 connecting rides. To take a trip that takes 45 minutes in heavy city traffic if you driving your own car.

Not if we use PRT instead of street cars or buses.

There isn't one single rr line in all of South Florida that runs east to west. And no lines past one block of i95.
Idiots take the train north for 30 minutes, only to get off walk to the bus stop and wait for the bus for the next leg.

https://www.redfin.com/news/condo-supply-rises-florida-texas-2024/

Florida and Texas Condo Supply is Piling Up As Sales Slow Amid High HOA, Insurance Costs

https://franknez.com/jpmorgan-now-takes-an-8-figure-loss-after-unloading-real-estate/

JPMorgan Now Takes An 8-Figure Loss After Unloading Real Estate

JPMorgan now takes an 8-figure loss after unloading real estate in a deal with a ‘mega landlord’, several new reports are confirming.

JPMorgan Chase has reportedly sold a significant real estate investment in Los Angeles, California, incurring an eight-figure loss.

The bank’s Investment Management division disposed of a large apartment complex with retail space located in the Little Tokyo area, partnering with a “mega landlord,” as reported by The Real Deal.

The complex, situated at 232 East 2nd Street, was purchased for around $116 million in February 2020 but was recently sold for $86.1 million, resulting in a loss of $29.9 million.

https://x.com/JDunlap1974/status/1831219238490542200

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/condo-supply-rises-florida-texas-2024/

Florida and Texas Condo Supply is Piling Up As Sales Slow Amid High HOA, Insurance Costs

the cooling of the condo and co-op market in Panama City Beach may be because of the over saturation of AirBnB's and vacation rentals

the economy has cooled so that has impacted the vacation rental sector



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