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The coming Fed Rate cut is already priced in by the banks. Wall Street fled the SFH market last year.
Needs to be 3.5% to adjust for median income, something that happened for a few months in the last 25 years.
And 2.75% to adjust for the 25-30% nationwide increase property tax and insurance markups these last few years. And the AirBNB battering from both the Economy and from Local Ordinances.
WookieMan says
FL saw an influx of retirees and thought it wouldn't stop. It is.
Yup. And this has happened before with gaps between the Greatest and the Silents, too.
When you don't build that shit was fake. FL saw an influx of retirees and thought it wouldn't stop. It is. There goes the market. It's pretty basic if you think about it. Covid bump and poof, it's over. 2-3 years from now I'd be intrigued in the FL market after it crashes. It's got a way to go.
The big lie is that we never built enough housing; the real truth is we built enough, a million a year, but the wrong kind.
Single Childless Cat Mom Middle Aged Florida Teachers don't need and can't afford to really keep a $420k 4 bed/2 bath.
At 4% or 7%. And definitely not with the 30% blowup in insurance and property taxes.
AirBNBs are taking a beating; the strategy of buying a zero lot in the burbs a half hour from attractions/tourist areas is dying in most places; actual owners are up in arms and inflation is smashing travel budgets.
The big lie is that we never built enough housing;
Now with Baby Boomers leaving work force for next 5 years , I wonder if that is why we see a lot more job vacancies and a decent labor market despite the economic slow down ?
AZ scares me as well as old people get cold when they're dying. They build retirement communities like they're going out of style. At some point the demographics aren't there to fill them up. So I see some trouble in the AZ market. I don't think it will move the overall market there. Could be job losses though as the geezers die and service jobs start dying off as the non wrinkled people don't have anyone to assist.
yes as nursing homes have to lay off people because they are no longer at full capacity
Boomers that could retire already did and moved.
Places like Tampa, Fort Myers, Sarasota, Orlando are going to eat shit price wise.
I know inflation is propping up prices but how much longer can it last for places like CA. After reading about insurance increases in CA I got a few quotes for my old house I sold. In 2020 my last insurance payment was 1150 now it's around 3k that and property tax the couple that bought my house are paying almost a thousand a month in tax and insurance. Add in car insurance and other cost of living increases and I don't see how everything is still going. Is everyone still there seeing these increases?
It'll start in Condos first, then spread to townhomes and SFH near the beaches, then outward. Florida is very dependent on retirees freely spending for jobs, too. It's extremely sensitive to old people spending money on dining out and day trips and shopping, as well as tourism. Many governors are trying to diversify out into other things but it's only been a drop in the bucket.
My wife works at a nursing home and they charge $7k/month per person. That's for living there, plus medication service, laundry, dining and some events.
Other services charge $1,200 - $3k more on top of that. Like assisted showering.
Two residents moved put back to their families. My wife also worked direct for families, on the side. But all that dried up earlier this year.
Better pray TeslaBots are advanced enough to wipe our butts on the cheap when we hit our seventies.
i feel like the invisible government & corporate hand is artificially torturing californians to get people to move and spend elsewhere. creating temporary boom economically in red states. it feels too artificial.
Bay County has Eastern Shipyard and NAVSTA Panama City and Tydnall AFB. Also it has a major port which has manufacturing like Berg Pipe and Oceaneering.
"I can't believe we only hired the worst people at the lowest pay and Grandma got maltreated! I want my Porsche for the price of a Mitsubishi Mirage!"
that is why they need more innovation and modernization of ideas as far as senior care
I would encourage using a bidet on the toilet that has some solution connected to it to help sanitize their anus area and butt
Hopefully the insurers will get involved
The way you word this is hysterical. I do want a bidet though in our new build. We have the room. Anus area though... lol. You got me laughing like I haven't in a while. Kudos.
AD says
I would encourage using a bidet on the toilet that has some solution connected to it to help sanitize their anus area and butt
The way you word this is hysterical. I do want a bidet though in our new build. We have the room. Anus area though... lol. You got me laughing like I haven't in a while. Kudos.
Bidet is one of the great European inventions
Interesting as now Colorado Springs is a cooling market
Also I-70 is a fuck show. They need 8 lanes total to Keystone from Denver They need probably $80B at least to widen that interstate and the Eisenhower tunnel. The economy is recreation. That's a massive choke point.
Need to promote more public transportation like buses since a rail solution is not feasible
PT only has value when it is expedient and efficient, nobody wants to spend 2 hours and 3 to 4 connecting rides. To take a trip that takes 45 minutes in heavy city traffic if you driving your own car.
https://www.redfin.com/news/condo-supply-rises-florida-texas-2024/
Florida and Texas Condo Supply is Piling Up As Sales Slow Amid High HOA, Insurance Costs
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.