patrick.net

https://x.com/JDunlap1974/status/1831219238490542200

zzyzzx says

https://www.redfin.com/news/condo-supply-rises-florida-texas-2024/

Florida and Texas Condo Supply is Piling Up As Sales Slow Amid High HOA, Insurance Costs

the cooling of the condo and co-op market in Panama City Beach may be because of the over saturation of AirBnB's and vacation rentals

the economy has cooled so that has impacted the vacation rental sector



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U.S. House Prices Rise 5.7 Percent over the Last Year; Up 0.9 Percent from the First Quarter of 2024

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

08/27/2024

Washington, D.C. – U.S. house prices rose 5.7 percent between the second quarter of 2023 and the second quarter of 2024, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index (FHFA HPI®). House prices were up 0.9 percent compared to the first quarter of 2024. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for June was down 0.1 percent from May.

“U.S. house prices saw the third consecutive slowdown in quarterly growth,” said Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director for FHFA’s Division of Research and Statistics. “The slower pace of appreciation as of June end was likely due to higher inventory of homes for sale and elevated mortgage rates.”

View a highlights video at https://youtu.be/a9zKNDgluXkExternal link icon.

Significant Findings

Nationally, the U.S. housing market has experienced positive annual appreciation each quarter since the start of 2012.
House prices rose in 50 states and the District of Columbia between the second quarter of 2023 and the second quarter of 2024. The five states with the highest annual appreciation were 1) Vermont, 13.4 percent; 2) West Virginia, 12.3 percent; 3) Rhode Island, 10.1 percent; 4) Delaware, 10.0 percent; and 5) New Jersey, 9.9 percent.
House prices rose in 96 of the top 100 largest metropolitan areas over the last four quarters. The annual price increase was the greatest in Syracuse, NY at 14.2 percent. The metropolitan area that experienced the most significant price decline was Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX at -3.2 percent.
All nine census divisions had positive house price changes year-over-year. The Middle Atlantic division recorded the strongest appreciation, posting a 8.5 percent increase from the second quarter of 2023 to the second quarter of 2024. The West South Central division recorded the smallest four-quarter appreciation, at 2.8 percent.
Trends in the Top 100 Metropolitan Statistical Areas are available in our interactive dashboard: https://www.fhfa.gov/data/dashboard/fhfa-hpi-top-100-metro-area-rankings. The first tab displays rankings, and the second tab offers charts.
The FHFA HPI is a comprehensive collection of publicly available house price indexes that measure changes in single-family home values based on data that extend back to the mid-1970s from all 50 states and over 400 American cities. It incorporates tens of millions of home sales and offers insights about house price fluctuations at the national, census division, state, metro area, county, ZIP code, and census tract levels. FHFA uses a fully transparent methodology based upon a weighted, repeat-sales statistical technique to analyze house price transaction data.

FHFA releases HPI data and reports quarterly and monthly. The flagship FHFA HPI uses seasonally adjusted, purchase-only data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Additional indexes use other data including refinances, Federal Housing Administration mortgages, and real property records. All the indexes, including their historic values, and information about future HPI release dates, are available on FHFA’s website: https://www.fhfa.gov/HPI.

https://www.fhfa.gov/news/news-release/u.s.-house-prices-rise-5.7-percent-over-the-last-year-up-0.9-percent-from-the-first-quarter-of-2024

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

U.S. House Prices Rise 5.7 Percent over the Last Year; Up 0.9 Percent from the First Quarter of 2024

Not stopping in most of the country. I've said this for years. We didn't build in most states. CO, FL, TX, TN, ID, etc yes, they built. Most the country with dispensable income didn't. We're just ramping up building in IL. We're talking 15-18 years of no new building and population growth.

Any housing crash nationally is 5-10 years off minimum. The above mentioned states it might happen sooner and drag down the national median. We're not in a housing crash.

WookieMan says

Not stopping in most of the country.

Around here a year ago, houses in desirable areas sold quickly for above asking. Now I am seeing price cuts in those same areas.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

Not stopping in most of the country.

Around here a year ago, houses in desirable areas sold quickly for above asking. Now I am seeing price cuts in those same areas.

$40k on a $875k original list price is nothing. So many other factors as well. Roof needs to be done. You've got $15k there. Exterior needs repainting and potentially residing. Deck is trash. Back to the roof, there's literally a dozen leak points on just one side of the house. So there's interior leaks as well.

Point being, someone needs to pay at least $40k to bring this house up to snuff. It's not a price drop. It's an overzealous seller overpricing a home and a dip shit Realtor trying to get another $1-2k on the commission. One photo can tell me this. Did the for 15 years. My boss had me do all the valuations. That house is shit my man. Shitty Realtor that didn't price the house right and let the owner make the price. They fucked themselves.

WookieMan says

$40k on a $875k original list price is nothing.

Going from above asking to discount shows a trend. This particular house is not the only example. A friend of mine recently closed selling a house in my neighborhood and had to drop the price. Her house was gorgeous and in mint condition. A year ago, the few houses that came up for sale in this neighborhood were bid above asking. Her house:

WookieMan says

Roof needs to be done. You've got $15k there. Exterior needs repainting and potentially residing. Deck is trash. Back to the roof, there's literally a dozen leak points on just one side of the house. So there's interior leaks as well.

Wow. Since the house was built in 1990, it would have needed some upkeep over the years. As far as the roof, that may be an artifact of the photo. Even so, I sent a bad example of a house drop there.

WookieMan says

Shitty Realtor that didn't price the house right and let the owner make the price.

Which is best, fix the stuff before listing at full price or leave be and do a discount?

HeadSet says

This particular house is not the only example. A friend of mine recently closed selling a house in my neighborhood and had to drop the price. Her house was gorgeous and in mint condition. A year ago, the few houses that came up for sale in this neighborhood were bid above asking. Her house:

Yep Yep

https://www.trulia.com/home/4197-john-richardson-ln-williamsburg-va-23188-213776659

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AD says

Yep Yep

I guess one can do an image search. And by the way, that $26 per month HOA fee includes membership to that clubhouse and swimming pool.

HeadSet says

I guess one can do an image search. And by the way, that $26 per month HOA fee includes membership to that clubhouse and swimming pool.

Yep

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HeadSet says

WookieMan says

Shitty Realtor that didn't price the house right and let the owner make the price.

Which is best, fix the stuff before listing at full price or leave be and do a discount?

Fix it. 100%. Married you get the $500k exemption. Literally no one knows this rule (not the aforementioned), even accountants. You can go to the moon with this if you keep receipts of improvements $1-2M in gains could be tax free. They're far better off fixing the place up unless they just bought it. It clearly needed work.

At the end of the day neither of us knows their capital gains. Did they get it for $100k in the 90's? Looking at $700k and think it's not worth it to put money into it. Primary homes are no different if you know the tax code for write offs. Keep receipts. You can get $1M or whatever million if you have the receipts and pay no taxes. $300K home turns into a $3M home, but you spent $2M to improve it, you have no taxes on the sale even if above the cap gains rate.

The limited knowledge on housing and taxes is mind boggling for the general population. No one knows what I just typed. Can promise that. Search and learn. The married $500k cap gains is unlimited depending on how much you spend. Basically it's not $500k.

Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers don't want you to know. Comes across as a brag but I know about real estate and taxes more than any user here. I like you guys, but some just have no clue. Was going to be an attorney, dad was an attorney and sister is an attorney. I know much more than most. I studied to be one.

WookieMan says

Did they get it for $100k in the 90's?

According to the county accessor, the house was bought in 2006 for $662,500, so they would be within the $500k exemption without having to add improvement costs to the basis. Apparently, they bought near the top of that bubble.

WookieMan says

Literally no one knows this rule

I am surprised by this, that people would know about capital gains but not understand the concept of calculating the basis, especially repairs and improvements

Where I am looking, it appears that folks are unloading non-primary units. Second homes, Airbnb properties, etc.

Folks are trying to lock in outrageous gains on the homes. Example, 3BR, 3 BA, 2600 sq. ft. on a decent 2 acre lot, bought in 4/22 for $675,000, put on the market two years later. After a series of monthly and twice monthly price drops, still on the market now, four months after listing, for $930,000, currently. No work was done in the home by the last buyers.

Hey, Zillow said this was worth $1,000,000. What do you mean the price is too high now???? Gimme my damn winnings!!!!

If you are on the sidelines and can buy, now is the time to play hardball. I think.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Where I am looking, it appears that folks are unloading non-primary units. Second homes, Airbnb properties, etc.

Folks are trying to lock in outrageous gains on the homes. Example, 3BR, 3 BA, 2600 sq. ft. on a decent 2 acre lot, bought in 4/22 for $675,000, put on the market two years later. After a series of monthly and twice monthly price drops, still on the market now, four months after listing, for $930,000, currently. No work was done in the home by the last buyers.

Hey, Zillow said this was worth $1,000,000. What do you mean the price is too high now???? Gimme my damn winnings!!!!

If you are on the sidelines and can buy, now is the time to play hardball. I think.

I used to say "if Zillow says it's worth $1M l will believe it if Zillow actually buys it for that price". And then they tried to do exactly tgat and almost sunk under the weight of all the houses they overpaid for. Now they are back to just saying it, LOL.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

If you are on the sidelines and can buy, now is the time to play hardball. I think.

Good point, which reminded me about Florida Condos.

Many Florida Condos are 'shadow inventory' - they're snowbird places, crash pads, and money-hiding assets for non-Americans.

When the Condo Fees are $400/month, it's one thing. When they become $1800/month and top of a $40k assessment to make up for decades of no reserves, it's another thing.

The ironic thing is that had people contributed an Olive Garden trip worth each month to the building reserves, they wouldn't be getting 200-300% Condo Fee increases or 5 figure assessments today.

WookieMan says

Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers don't want you to know.

Fixed:
Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers and government don't want you to know.

zzyzzx says

WookieMan says

Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers don't want you to know.

Fixed:
Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers and government don't want you to know.

Too many hidden rules and IRS hidden gems. We should all be pissed about that. No one should be getting any special tax treatment at all. No one.

zzyzzx says

Our population is financially illiterate by design. Bankers and government don't want you to know.

But we can trust our paper currency, can't we? After all, it's backed up with a promise by the good folks at the Federal Reserve who work tirelessly in the American people's best interests.

"And here can be your Jacuzzi". I wonder why they don't show the inside of this gem. However, the value of this property is in the acquired building permits (years and nearly impossible in Santa Cruz) for multi occupancy construction. Apparently the developer decided not to compete with the various high rise 'low income' projects around Santa Cruz (apparatchik grants for the various politically connected).

Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Rate drops make August most affordable month since February, as home price growth cools to 12-month low

Declining mortgage rates have brought home affordability to its best level since February and boosted refinance incentive for many recent-vintage mortgages

With 30-year conforming rates down 60 bps from just over 7% in May, the principal and interest payment on the average-priced home purchase is $145 less per month than just three months ago

The share of income needed to make payments on that home (34.3%) is still 10 pp above its 30-year average and ICE Market Trends data shows recent record highs in down payments and credit scores

Spurred by rate declines, purchase loan demand had two of its best weeks since March, but remains noticeably below the levels seen earlier this year and in 2023 when rates were at comparable levels

The ICE Home Price Index for July showed the annual rate of home price growth slipping to +3.6% from +4.1% in June, marking the slowest pace in 12 months on rising inventory and still-soft demand

While prices were up +0.19% from June at the national level, they fell by -0.25% or more across each of Florida’s nine largest metros which, along with Austin, saw the largest single-month declines in July

In the Midwest and Northeast, inventory shortages persist, and prices continued to push higher in July
emphasis added.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2024/09/ice-mortgage-monitor-house-price-growth.html

Demand for mortgages to buy a house has plummeted by 44% from pre-pandemic levels, and is now in the biggest collapse since the 2008 housing crisis.

Americans are no longer buying homes with mortgages because housing affordability has surged out of control. The typical payment for homebuyers in 2024 is around $2,800/month including mortgage, taxes, insurance.

https://youtu.be/D0Jgp2i8Ti0

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Declining mortgage rates have brought home affordability to its best level since February

Baloney. Lower rates just mean higher sales prices.

HeadSet says

Baloney. Lower rates just mean higher sales prices.

BINGO! Just another "Now is a good time to buy!" RE fluffer article.

When prices fucking drop 80 - 100% is when we hit "good time to buy" time.

https://patrick.net/comment?comment_id=2098281

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https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4725-Bay-Point-Rd-254-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32408/42791565_zpid/

this condo rented for around $1000 back in 2016 , so the rent went up about 5% a year

that closed in patio with all those windows can be converted to a bedroom by putting in a sliding glass door the entire opening or that along with a wall ; that makes it a 2 bedroom condo with total 900 square feet ; that is what my Bay Point condo had back in early 1990s

Bay Point is the best place on Earth for any of you all that want to retire and move to paradise (Florida panhandle)

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I don't care where you guys live. AD obviously mentions it frequently. So do I. Market seems confused and/or overbuilt in certain states dragging down the national average.

My small town we had 20 years of ZERO building. Nothing. With higher interest rates, we have more building of businesses and housing. Same in neighboring towns. Places like FL, TX, MT, ID, AZ, CO still had solid building after the bust. Those are the states that take the beating in my opinion. AD in the Panhandle shouldn't be too bad. The penis of FL might not do so well.

We're doing good in these parts of IL. We already had our exodus though. Minimal inflow, but people are finally staying and need to catch up with 20 years of no building as younger people stay and come to home buying age. It's still pretty affordable outside of yuppie suburbs. Chicago in neighborhoods you don't need a bullet proof vest, you're about the $1M price point. But that's not bad for Chicago white collar incomes. Technically cheap.

My car renews DMV registration fee was $820 in CA vs, $75 in TX.

More private owners are trying to get subsidized by Corp-Gov shennanigans to house up migrants. Good news, locals are starting to be more aware.

https://patrick.net/post/1382069/2024-09-13-people-getting-wise-to-the-landlord

REpro says

My car renews DMV registration fee was $820 in CA vs, $75 in TX.

That's insane without a freeze thaw cycle in much of the state. I think we're $135(ish).

Also, instead of disliking a comment, just ignore me. Petty.

I like up and down voting. It’s feedback.

It's another massive bubble... worse than the '08 one.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

But will it pop?

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It should be about 240 not 320 if you follow the trend line. This means housing would drop 25% (from 320 to 240). This aligns just with the 30 year mortgage rate rising from 3% (when peak prices were set in early 2022) to currently 6%.

Housing should be 258 if you go by a 3.5% annual appreciation from 1990 to 2024, so my trend line may be overly cautious or conservative.

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GNL says

But will it pop?

Everything seems to point as far as the Federal Reserve letting the air out slowly of the asset/housing balloon, while household income/wages catch up with housing prices, and the 30 year mortgage rate slowly gravitates to and steadies around 5.5%.

And all of this helps reduction in interest rates (10 Year Treasury well below its recent high of 5%) helps the federal guvmint borrow at lower rates, while it steadily inflates out of a debt crisis with inflation between 2 and 3%.

.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

RC2006 says

I know inflation is propping up prices but how much longer can it last for places like CA. After reading about insurance increases in CA I got a few quotes for my old house I sold. In 2020 my last insurance payment was 1150 now it's around 3k that and property tax the couple that bought my house are paying almost a thousand a month in tax and insurance. Add in car insurance and other cost of living increases and I don't see how everything is still going. Is everyone still there seeing these increases?

There was a headline in the local paper (SJ Mercury) that an income of at least $300k is needed for the cheapest "starter" home in SJ. I did not read article as it's behind a paywall.

I think what has happened is that we've become a third world country, where housing is "affordable" for only the wealthy. Maybe this is why prices haven't fallen much even with the increased insurance, local tax, mortgage rates. Because we've gone past the transition to third-world status.

This is how Socialism/Communism is born. Make most of the population unable to live or own anything, and they become dependent on government and vote accordingly for the most free shit they can get their hands on.

porkchopXpress says

This is how Socialism/Communism is born. Make most of the population unable to live or own anything, and they become dependent on government and vote accordingly for the most free shit they can get their hands on.

Except none of Commie regimes were installed via elections: it was always through the barrel of a gun.