patrick.net

https://fortune.com/2024/09/16/housing-market-lower-mortgage-rates-no-buyers/

Lower mortgage rates aren’t igniting the housing market.

zzyzzx says

https://fortune.com/2024/09/16/housing-market-lower-mortgage-rates-no-buyers/

Lower mortgage rates aren’t igniting the housing market.

The locked-in 30 yr mortgage rate was around 3% when prices peaked in Florida panhandle around early 2022. For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in price.

So if the rate steadies to 5.5%, then prices should be 25% below peak level (WITHOUT accounting for gain in household income/wages since early 2022).

As far as your other post, maybe buyers (which about 50% of them are landlord investors for townhomes in Panama City Beach) are "staying on the sidelines" hoping rates drop to 3% AGAIN and hoping for a "deflationary spiral" in housing prices.

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AmericanKulak says

Wouldn't it be better to simply rent yourself than be utterly dependent on renting it out 9 months of the year just to keep above water on it?

But then you lose the bragging rights of "I control $XXX,XXX in properties". 🤡 Where's fun in that?

Lots of price reductions in Santa Cruz lately, more inventory on the market. Couple of places around my hood are going on five months with nibbles but no bites. That's nearly unheard of for the time we have had our place there.

zzyzzx says

As long as they can sell more profitable luxury houses, they have no incentive to build affordable housing.

That's true as they will build what they can sell for the maximum profit.

Need to figure out how to sell $250,000 3 bedroom/2 bath/1500 square foot single family detached starter homes at a profit without any subsidies.
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Second Home Mortgages collapse:
https://wtop.com/business-finance/2024/05/why-are-second-home-and-vacation-home-sales-declining/

The buyers homesellers think are out there, aren't out there. The inflated baloney can stay puffed for a long time.

AmericanKulak says

Second Home Mortgages collapse:
https://wtop.com/business-finance/2024/05/why-are-second-home-and-vacation-home-sales-declining/

yes, cause the landlord investors (short term / vacation and long term rental) are sitting on the sidelines

not much sales volume in the Florida panhandle right now

this just sold this month:
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1844-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/112794186_zpid/

sales price of $225K
sold for $105K in Feb 2012

about a 6.5% annual appreciation in value from 2012 to present day for 1844 Annabellas Dr

seems rather pricey at $225K (even if ~$20K in upgrades like new floor, paint, cabinets, etc) as peak price (spring 2022) the same style unit was selling $220K to $235K

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This one is more my speed. All I want is a cabin in the woods and high speed internet (Thanks, Elon!)
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/32389-Palmetto-Ter-Bristol-FL-32321/440498816_zpid/

AmericanKulak says

This one is more my speed. All I want is a cabin in the woods and high speed internet (Thanks, Elon!)
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/32389-Palmetto-Ter-Bristol-FL-32321/440498816_zpid/

not for me, but I can see where you can put solar on the roof if there is no electric utility and also run a generator to at least power Elon Musk's Starlink internet service (if no 4G or 5G service) and maybe a 5000 BTU air condition window unit

I rather be in Virginia like west of Front Royal or southwest of Winchester or even in eastern West Virginia if I am going to live like that

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AmericanKulak says

This one is more my speed. All I want is a cabin in the woods and high speed internet (Thanks, Elon!)

Can maybe use that roof to collect water?

AD says

I guess the county sets restrictions on minimum square footage per lot.

Damn counties.

AD says

Need to figure out how to sell $250,000 3 bedroom/2 bath/1500 square foot single family detached starter homes at a profit without any subsidies.

Do the following and build a separate garage.

AD says

I rather be in Virginia like west of Front Royal or southwest of Winchester or even in eastern West Virginia if I am going to live like that

Me too, Blue Ridge or Ozarks... but not possible with currrent situation.

I'm thinking the turn of the panhandle would be doable though. Deals are starting to open up for fixer uppers on several acres with spring or lake side.

Not doing shit for at least a year, in any case, I ain't paying a lot for that muffler Ticky Tack Shack.

AmericanKulak says

Blue Ridge or Ozarks

Same here! Ozarks are like the Blue Ridge without the drawl. I am searching waterfront property on Table Rock Lake.

HeadSet says

AD says

Need to figure out how to sell $250,000 3 bedroom/2 bath/1500 square foot single family detached starter homes at a profit without any subsidies.

Do the following and build a separate garage.

That bad boy is a trailer my friend. Even with land that costs the builder $100k all in. Basically if you have dignity, you'd never live in that thing.

WookieMan says

HeadSet says

AD says

Need to figure out how to sell $250,000 3 bedroom/2 bath/1500 square foot single family detached starter homes at a profit without any subsidies.

Do the following and build a separate garage.

That bad boy is a trailer my friend. Even with land that costs the builder $100k all in. Basically if you have dignity, you'd never live in that thing.

Yep, there are fixed costs for the developer like land acquisition, impact fees (electric utility line, storm water, etc), and permit fees.

A builder friend told me it likely cost $85,000 for the developer to build our 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome about 2 miles from the white sands and emerald water beaches; we paid $187,000 in summer 2016. So they doubled their investment likely over 5 years (bought land in 2011, etc).

I rather live with my people (in a trailer on Joan Avenue or anywhere else on the barrier island of Panama City Beach) then in some uppity white liberal village (with an optimized amount or mix of Asian tiger moms).

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WookieMan says

That bad boy is a trailer my friend.

Oh, I know, and I am very familiar with trailers. My dad is from an Appalachian style background so I have many cousins that are or have lived in trailers. I also had a friend in Wyoming who had a trailer and even one Air Force captain that chose to live that way. I would never prefer a trailer to a built house, but these trailers I have been in are quite nice. They look the same inside as other modest single-story homes, with a similar layout kitchen, bath and bedrooms. You just do not get an attic or basement. The people that get these trailers do so because they do not want to overspend on a house. One of my cousin's daughter works as a manager at a rural small town Dollar Store. She was able to buy an acre of land and put a trailer on it. Not sure how long her mortgage is, but the others with trailers own them outright. They live where they want to live and are able to afford boats and have the free time to go fishing. They also have nice decks and outbuildings.

AD says

I rather live with my people (in a trailer on Joan Avenue or anywhere else on the barrier island of Panama City Beach) then in some uppity white liberal village (with an optimized amount or mix of Asian tiger moms).

Yes.

The attitude towards trailers is yet another thing that keeps prices elevated. How are people supposed to combat high home prices? Through government? Keep bitching about high property taxes. LOL.

GNL says

The attitude towards trailers is yet another thing that keeps prices elevated.

I think there is a manufactured homes facility in Panama City along with other major factories and manufacturing job sites like Trane HVAC, Eastern Shipyard, Berg Pipe, Oceaneering, a new electrical transformer and electrical equipment manufacturer at the local airport industrial district, an industrial washing machine and dryer manufacturing facility at the beach industrial district, etc

Its not just about Tyndall AFB, Navsta Panama City, and tourism in Panama City metro area.

And the city is allowing them as these homes look a lot better : https://www.mypanhandle.com/news/manufactured-homes-allowed-in-panama-city/

ROLL TIDE

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zzyzzx says

As long as they can sell more profitable luxury houses, they have no incentive to build affordable housing.

The desire in a big home is real estate brainwashing and might be mostly an American phenomenba.

When rates actually went up the following day to 6.15% after the Fed’s announcement, there was lots of splainin’ to do. Although rates would settle at 6.06% on Friday night, the cracks in the narrative had been widening since late May when mortgage rates started their move down. Every realtor, broker, housing industry publication has made the innuendo or explicit case that when “rates” go down everyone was going to be fine, and the housing engine would restart. Additionally, if you ask one of these industry insiders about mortgage rates, they refer to the latest news from the Fed. No matter how many times I have pounded the table that the Fed does not control mortgage rates, the bond market does, those in the industry failed either to grasp or overtly acknowledge this fact. Do the Fed’s actions have an impact? Sure, but the bond market had already front-run the move with large drops in August when the Yen Carry Trade started to unwind. The confusion out there has gotten so bad that Jerome Powell himself had to state explicitly from the podium that “he can’t really speak to mortgage rates.”

https://open.substack.com/pub/m3melody/p/wait-what

He could control mortgage rates if he wanted to by simply buying a trillion or so MBS.

He's not desperate yet because the Federal government and corporations are expanding the amount of bonds at a reasonable rate.

HeadSet says

I would never prefer a trailer to a built house, but these trailers I have been in are quite nice. They look the same inside as other modest single-story homes, with a similar layout kitchen, bath and bedrooms. You just do not get an attic or basement.

You described an Eichler, lol.

HeadSet says

She was able to buy an acre of land and put a trailer on it.

And it gets a pink slip from the DMV so is not counted as a perm improvement on the property tax assessments. Need to pay more for the loan on them though.

You can have them added as a property improvement, tho. Involves an affidavit that you won't move it off the property and you surrender the pink slip to the property tax authority. Ppl only do that to get better financing for the trailer.

Eric Holder says

You described an Eichler, lol.

Eichlers can have basements/attics tho. Not common, but possible.

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

Eric Holder says

You described an Eichler, lol.

Eichlers can have basements/attics tho. Not common, but possible.

I thought they weren't supposed to have the former by definition and the latter are add-ons. There are some Eichlers in Bay Area with added 2nd stories, attics and such, but I never heard of basements in these. The whole "slab-on-grade foundation" thing was pioneered (or put into wide use) by Eichler, no?

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

And it gets a pink slip from the DMV so is not counted as a perm improvement on the property tax assessments.

I may have been using the term "trailer" wrong. These homes I am talking about are called "off frame" where two halves are brought to a site and assembled on a foundation. The roof is normal asphalt shingle. That example photo in my above post is one of those off frames.

HeadSet says

The roof is normal asphalt shingle

I was up on the roof today cleaning the gutters to get ready for the wet season.

The 17 years old shingles look a bit frayed at the edges. Supposedly it's a 20 year roof. Maybe we can eek out year 21. Time to start setting aside some money for this inevitability now. Because homie don't borrow.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Because homie don't borrow.

Same here. The only time I borrowed was for my first car and my first house. Paid cash for all cars and residence homes since. I did borrow to biy rental houses, but that is a business and not personal consumption.

HeadSet says

B.A.C.A.H. says

Because homie don't borrow.

Same here. The only time I borrowed was for my first car and my first house. Paid cash for all cars and residence homes since. I did borrow to biy rental houses, but that is a business and not personal consumption.

Who does the note cite as the party who will pay? You or the “business” that is a Corp? Think about risk and what that looks like if people stop paying your mortgage.

HeadSet says

DemocratsAreTotallyFucked says

And it gets a pink slip from the DMV so is not counted as a perm improvement on the property tax assessments.

I may have been using the term "trailer" wrong. These homes I am talking about are called "off frame" where two halves are brought to a site and assembled on a foundation. The roof is normal asphalt shingle. That example photo in my above post is one of those off frames.

When I was a kid I was forced labor for my dad to build two of those. Site prep mainly and finish work once joined. While nicer than a trailer it's kind of shitty.

I toured the Forest River factory in Indiana that makes a ton of them. Never let them put finishes in them. Have your own contractors come in and do flooring, baths, kitchen cabinets, etc. Hell even windows. Just get the frame. My sister still owns one of them. That why I referred to them as trailers because the finishes are almost always trash.

You could make one pretty nice with just the shell doing your own finishes. Especially if handy. The construction is actually surprisingly solid though on the frame. Better than most stick builders on site.

HeadSet says

I may have been using the term "trailer" wrong. These homes I am talking about are called "off frame" where two halves are brought to a site and assembled on a foundation. The roof is normal asphalt shingle. That example photo in my above post is one of those off frames.

'HUDular' manufactured homes? Single wide, double wide, triple wide? Correct?

HeadSet says

I may have been using the term "trailer" wrong. These homes I am talking about are called "off frame" where two halves are brought to a site and assembled on a foundation. The roof is normal asphalt shingle. That example photo in my above post is one of those off frames.

Got it. Okay, I thought it was an RV you were talking about. Big restrictions in many states on those, including in the unincorporated county areas, to give an advantage to big developers and realtors. It sounds like you are referring to a modular home, which are generally well built and a good value. For $100k you can have a new modest house, and $150k gets you a really nice one, providing you can handle the zoning laws.

This is one of Blackrock's LLC owned properties.


I suspect the biggest price drop may have an uninsurability/flood zone issue, or perhaps a personal crisis.

ForcedTQ says

Who does the note cite as the party who will pay? You or the “business” that is a Corp? Think about risk and what that looks like if people stop paying your mortgage.

The point had to do with borrowing for mere consumption verses borrowing to fund a business. Business risk is another issue.

AmericanKulak says

For $100k you can have a new modest house, and $150k gets you a really nice one

Yes, the ones build as two halves and trucked to the site and buttoned together. There is also a modular home builder here that does much more upscale, where the house is factory built in many sections and assembled piece by piece with a crane. The foundations for these have to be perfectly level and all walls in the finished house are absolutely square.

Love it! Those modulars really are something. Some have a great deal of Sq Ft. This tech room one is great for the kids...
https://www.floridamodularhomes.net/manufactured-and-modular-home-floorplans/the-altitude/

Here are some latest RV/Trailer Mobile Homes, which is why I wonder why anybody is into Tiny Houses that are generally harder to move and hook up.
https://rv.campingworld.com/rv/2415101?storecode=KS&scpc=lia-gpm-cwrv-nat&gad_source=1&gclsrc=ds