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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   607,720 views  5,691 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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559   GNL   2022 Aug 14, 1:52pm  

RedStar says

I'm still waiting for Boise to drop

You'll be waiting for a long time. Wookieman says price reductions are unpossible.
560   Booger   2022 Aug 14, 2:28pm  

ad says


Depends as long as there are enough people from the North who are selling homes at a greater price than the homes they buy in Florida.


Demographics in certain parts of Florida, St Petersburg in particular, suggests that people need to be frantically moving into the area to replace all the people dying to keep the population steady. Also, Florida, and a few other places, are famous for having people migrate in waves. It's possible, maybe more like probable, that the pandemic simply pushed people's timeline forward too, and demand for housing in Florida at current prices is a huge deterrent as well. Same for Atlanta and Charlotte.
561   WookieMan   2022 Aug 14, 5:56pm  

ad says


I wonder who bought it and why they are trying to sell it at a loss now.

Probably for carryover losses anticipating the market was going down and they had a good year doing something else to avoid a big tax bill. Rarely does anyone sell at a loss for fun. It was likely a tax strategy and they just paid a little PITI and wrote off a big tax bill. A $225k loss can get you out of some big tax bills if it was an investment and not owner occupied.
564   zzyzzx   2022 Aug 15, 8:58am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-homebuilder-confidence-hits-worst-140000974.html

US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Worst Slump Since 2007 Collapse
565   1337irr   2022 Aug 15, 9:01am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-homebuilder-confidence-hits-worst-140000974.html

US Homebuilder Confidence Hits Worst Slump Since 2007 Collapse

Hold my beer, zzyzzx.
566   Ceffer   2022 Aug 15, 9:08am  

Strange, Santa Cruz has opened up with sales more than tri-valley so far, with the 'low end' in tri-valley giving the first signs. I laugh, because the 'low end' people in rinky dinky condos could be living on McMansion estates in Texas. They mostly display their 'wealth' with vehicle mania.
568   Patrick   2022 Aug 15, 8:52pm  

Buffett isn't dumb.
569   AD   2022 Aug 15, 10:53pm  

Booger says

Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated


Not sure as they make about $800 on the mortgage origination fee and then they can sell the mortgages via mortgage back securities (MBS) in order to remove the liability from their financial books. They make at least a 20% profit from the origination fee after accounting for salaries, overhead, etc.

,
570   richwicks   2022 Aug 15, 11:01pm  

Patrick says

Buffett isn't dumb.


Buffet probably isn't stupid, but he's not a genius so much as he's connected. Don't think the government doesn't directly assist him.
571   zzyzzx   2022 Aug 16, 5:11am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html

The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market
572   GNL   2022 Aug 16, 5:14am  

zzyzzx says

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html

The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market

Just what exactly is the stock market trading on? A hot economy? TBTF? "The fed always has our back"?
573   1337irr   2022 Aug 16, 5:36am  

ad says

Booger says


Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated


Not sure as they make about $800 on the mortgage origination fee and then they can sell the mortgages via mortgage back securities (MBS) in order to remove the liability from their financial books. They make at least a 20% profit from the origination fee after accounting for salaries, overhead, etc.

,

The forecast is for an increase in foreclosures. Foreclosures are expensive because of all the legal fees, insurance and customer contact demand. Wells Fargo is good to get out. I say that based on my previous mortgage experience,
575   zzyzzx   2022 Aug 16, 5:56am  

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/homes/rising-rent-wages-housing

Majority of Americans say they're worried about being able to pay for housing
576   WookieMan   2022 Aug 16, 6:03am  

1337irr says

Foreclosures are expensive because of all the legal fees, insurance and customer contact demand.

They learned 2006-12. Foreclosures are more expensive. Remember they're on the hook for property taxes as well. Banks save substantially more getting "some" money.

Say your payment is $1,000. It will easily cost the bank $500/mo if they kick your ass out and that still takes a year or so of getting nothing. Loans are amortized, so the money is made up front. If you got someone that has paid 2-3+, you're in the green still. Defer or reduce the payment for a set period, let the owner take care of the place, and hope the situation gets better.

I was in the trenches for 4-5 years with REO's (foreclosed homes). Bankers have no business in real estate management or sales. They're morons. If I was running the banks I'd have fired EVERY single person I dealt with during that time. ALL of them. Also real estate brokers managing properties that have been foreclosed is a fucking joke. They don't know how to manage properties. They're sales people. I don't think we'll ever see a housing bust like that again in our lifetimes. I could be wrong, as people are prone to make the same mistakes.
577   gabbar   2022 Aug 16, 12:25pm  

The so-called "monetary theory" is only a ruse to manipulate the economy. Politicians and their campaign financiers have been benefiting from massive deficit spending (no valid budget) thereby avoiding a vote to increase in taxes. Deficit spending gives politicians more power because of the newly created "fake money" that is basically distributed at their discretion (to fight wars in Ukraine, Afghanistan and wars in the future). The Ponzi scheme of the fed hurts the poor the most as it drives inflation. The wealthy watch their assets rise in value while the poor and middle class get crushed by an increase in the cost of living, real wage reduction, and an increase in taxes. Property taxes, sale taxes, and income taxes increase. This increase in taxes reduces the opportunity for savings by the poor and middle class and can drive them into debt, risking bankruptcy instead of the opportunity for financial freedom. This is how the rich get richer and poor get poorer. Every tax increase gives your freedom to the government and their controllers.
578   GNL   2022 Aug 16, 1:03pm  

WookieMan says

Also real estate brokers managing properties that have been foreclosed is a fucking joke.forec

Can you explain this comment? You seem to know a bit. I just don't know what you mean by "manage foreclosures".
579   RWSGFY   2022 Aug 16, 5:47pm  

gabbar says

The so-called "monetary theory" is only a ruse to manipulate the economy. Politicians and their campaign financiers have been benefiting from massive deficit spending (no valid budget) thereby avoiding a vote to increase in taxes.
....
The wealthy watch their assets rise in value while the poor and middle class get crushed by an increase in the cost of living, real wage reduction, and an increase in taxes.


Isn't it a contradiction?
580   porkchopXpress   2022 Aug 16, 7:23pm  

So do you rent in inflationary times or buy a house with dropping prices? Decisions.
581   zzyzzx   2022 Aug 17, 5:46am  

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/212d18cc-91f0-3129-ac56-183b8cbda094/lowe%E2%80%99s-sales-drop-again-as.html

Lowe’s Sales Drop Again as Homeowners Pull Back on Discretionary Purchases
583   zzyzzx   2022 Aug 17, 6:15am  

Free Pizza with house:

585   WookieMan   2022 Aug 18, 1:14pm  

GNLusedto says

Can you explain this comment? You seem to know a bit. I just don't know what you mean by "manage foreclosures".

Bank owns the property. They hire a RE broker to manage it and make sure it doesn't break (so to speak). They (brokers) then hire out another party to take care of the place. Winterizing, weekly checkups, etc. So basically 3-4 levels deep from the actual owner, the bank. Someone does AND will always drop the ball and the property gets fucked up costing the banks thousands at minimum and potentially 100's of thousands.

If you don't trust RE agents in sales, management is even worse. And that's the go to when a property forecloses unless things have changed in the last 3-4 years, which they should have. Brokers who are sales whores (which you likely know from our conversations) have no clue how to manage property. 9 out of 10 times they can't change a faucet in the bathroom or kitchen. Many are bimbos. Never trust an RE broker with managing your property. Never. They're sales people. They sell homes, don't manage. Hell most cannot manage their business without going BK at some point in the cycles of RE.
586   Al_Sharpton_for_President   2022 Aug 18, 1:36pm  

zzyzzx says

Free Pizza with house:

Waiting on free house with pizza.
587   FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden   2022 Aug 18, 2:00pm  

zzyzzx says

Free Pizza with house:




boise is super expensive with all the CA millionnaires moving in with equity. many of those folks are moving to meridian. housing prices here are at peak, and taxes aren’t locked.
588   1337irr   2022 Aug 18, 2:55pm  

Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST...but the state and local governments worries me.
589   Patrick   2022 Aug 19, 8:20am  

https://notthebee.com/article/hoo-boy-new-housing-construction-plunged-last-month-flashing-a-telltale-warning-sign-for-a-possible-recession


Hoo boy: New housing construction plunged last month, adding more worry of a mass housing crash
590   B.A.C.A.H.   2022 Aug 19, 8:47am  

1337irr says


Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST

I wish what you wrote is true.

This summer, prices have only crashed to the Super-Expensive Super-Overpriced level of about a year or so ago.

If the prices fall by half, which would be a good thing for Local Kids and Employers in the region (and therefore for the local economy), then prices would be reasonable. Reasonable, but not cheap.
593   Booger   2022 Aug 19, 10:13am  

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article264650054.html

Miami-Dade housing market finally cooling, as prices dip for first time since 2021
594   EBGuy   2022 Aug 19, 4:28pm  

1337irr says


Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST...

I'm with B.A.C.A.H. on this. Not seeing weakness in Fortress East Bay. I do expect normal seasonality to kick in for the Fall. Hopefully we'll start seeing some drops soon as price to rent ratio is extremely out of whack...
595   RedStar   2022 Aug 19, 4:49pm  

I'm already getting desperate calls from lenders for a refi.Dumb fucks all my mortgages are under 3.5.
596   1337irr   2022 Aug 19, 5:14pm  

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...
597   Booger   2022 Aug 19, 5:17pm  

1337irr says

I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...


I'm surprised that it hasn't happened already several times. Same for NYC.
598   Booger   2022 Aug 19, 5:17pm  

EBGuy says

Not seeing weakness in Fortress East Bay.


Not yet would be more appropriate.

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