patrick.net

My wife grew up in the Rio Grande Valley - "The Valley." She told me stories of shady developers who would build shit houses on flood plains and sell them to (most likely illegal) Mexican immigrants; these were called the Colinas. There would be a rainy season and the houses would wash away, there would be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth. The gub'ment would pay out to cover up the corruption of the developers and local gub'ment that colluded with the corrupt developers to defraud the poor fools who bought the crap housing.

Insurance is in collusion with the corrupt gub'ment.

WookieMan says

If it "comes from the sky" it's home owners insurance and if it "comes from the ground" it's a flood.

yeah, in Florida, you have to show water damage was from rain coming down and throw the damage house structure like roof and windows, and not from the water level rising and flooding your home such as from a storm water retention pond in your backyard or from a flooded street

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AmericanKulak says

Also of interest:
https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/property/florida-insurers-deny-nearly-half-of-hurricane-claims-ratings-agency-says-508765.aspx

yes, the Florida insurance company denies about 1/2 the claims by stating the house was not in good condition such as the roof should have been replaced and it allowed water to come in from the storm

but what I don't understand is usually the insurance company will inspect the home each year, or at least when the home owner applies for the insurance

so if you are insured, it would be generally accepted or implied that the insurance company approves of the condition of your home like the condition of the roof

i know the insurance company went into my attic to verify the roof clips or straps and to inspect the entire home like check the electric power panel , hot water heater, etc

the insurance company told my friend who lives within a mile of the beach that he had to replace his roof cause it was at least 20 years old if he wanted to keep his insurance coverage

as far as risk mitigation but related to automobile insurance industry, Virginia requires annual car inspections which means essentially only road-worthy vehicles are being driven

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stereotomy says

Nature is a bitch about FAFO. Choose insurance protection accordingly - if it's too expensive, you're living in the wrong place.

And politicians. If you can't sue with loser pays, the politician and insurers get their ways - after pocketing all your premiums for years and then dropping you the moment you go to collect on damage.

The insurers that aren't complete shits and run on pure numbers and risk assessment exist only for well-off clients or in economics textbooks.The rest capture more profit by not paying out. This is because those who could self-insure are still better off spreading their risk with well-run, pure math oriented insurers - but those insurers only work in the free market of the self-insured.

One guy got a desk adjuster sending him "Termites are responsible for the floor and wall damage"

Dude is like "Uh, I live in a concrete block house. There isn't any wood at the surface level nor for 8 feet. Just concrete block, stucco, and rebar. My claim is not for my roof. It's for my walls."

AD says

WookieMan says

If it "comes from the sky" it's home owners insurance and if it "comes from the ground" it's a flood.

yeah, in Florida, you have to show water damage was from rain coming down and throw the damage house structure like roof and windows, and not from the water level rising and flooding your home such as from a storm water retention pond in your backyard or from a flooded street

I get the point, but if a retention pond overflows that's rain. Either way, buy/build where you're on the high ground, as much as you can. Hard in FL. We bought the two highest lots topographically in our subdivision. It would take over 20" of water to flood our land.

Like I said. Dealt with a flood as a teenager. My dad was an ass hole and I had to rehab the basement up to 4' while he was golfing. So I take flooding pretty seriously and will pre-plan and engineer for flooding protection on the build. I've mentioned it before, but hope to hold 2-4k gallons in underground tanks from roof run off. Pool will get some. Nat Gas generator to run the house and sump pumps to flood my neighbors on lower ground... lol.

Tornados I fear the the most, but for whatever reason they stay to the south of us. Not sure if it has to do with Lake Michigan messing with weather. There was one northwest of us that was weird. I think that was an F3 or 4.

Over 5000 Ford Trucks from 2023 remain unsold in the USA as we enter 2025. Nobody in their target market is remotely considering paying what Ford wants ($70k+) for the F-150 and Bronco Raptors.

Nissan cutting 9000 jobs (global).

Stellantis earnings will be a blood bath. Rubicons piling up and the rest of the vehicle lineup, or, like Ford, ludicrously overpriced Trucks.

Volkswagon, which avoids lay offs like crazy, is shutting multiple plants, laying off thousands, and cutting wages in a massive shock move.

The dealers don't want the trade ins, but the under-pressure buyers won't buy without a good deal on a trade in. Used cars don't move because there are no 3-4% dealer incentives on Used, only New. 11.3% is the average used car loan rate now.

How did car companies overproduce expensive vehicles no one wants? Probably misreading the market with all the cash handouts Xiden did.

I mention this because Cars and Housing are two big expenses.

AmericanKulak says

Used cars don't move because there are no 3-4% dealer incentives on Used, only New. 11.3% is the average used car loan rate now.

Where in the fuck do you buy a car with that interest rate? Even used. That's a 590 credit score if getting a loan. Have never been over 8% in my lifetime and always buy used. That's just shitty credit. I have current collections (medical) and my score is still 700.

AmericanKulak says

How did car companies overproduce expensive vehicles no one wants? Probably misreading the market

Just like the housing market, the automakers will always satisfy the most profitable portion of the marketplace first during a time of shortage. Now that shortages are over, in theory, you should see more affordable new car options become available. But auto manufacturing has a long lead time, so it's going to take a while. Plus auto manufacturers have always hated their clientele that buys the lower priced vehicles, so they are in no hurry to accommodate.

The more puzzling thing is that the one thing automakers haven't done yet, that they should have done already is to bring back lower trim levels. That I think is something that they can do in a short period time.

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https://nypost.com/2024/11/12/real-estate/floridas-crumbling-home-prices-havent-been-this-bad-since-2011/

I figure for every 1% increase in the 30 Yr mortgage rate, there should be a drop of 10% in prices. So just on that, prices should be 40% below there early 2022 levels.

Factoring in that household income has risen about 20% since early 2022, then home prices should be about 20 to 25% below early 2022 levels.

Our townhome about 2 miles from the beach in the Florida panhandle had a peak value of around $330,000 in early 2022. So it should be around $264,000.

We bought it for around $187,000 in 2016, so it would appreciate 4.25% annually to around $264,000.

Everything "returns to the mean" when figuring home prices historically increase about 4% a year.

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WookieMan says

Where in the fuck do you buy a car with that interest rate? Even used. That's a 590 credit score if getting a loan. Have never been over 8% in my lifetime and always buy used. That's just shitty credit. I have current collections (medical) and my score is still 700.

Wild, right?

This is several months out of date, but they list the average rate for a used for Prime (~680) credit as 9.3%

https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/loans/auto-loans/average-car-loan-interest-rates-by-credit-score

Shouldn't be a shock. Rate Hawks are demanding a higher ROI despite the Fed Cuts because they don't think inflation is whipped.

Again, when you look at leases and the financing for new vehicles, buying used at the outrageous prices they're asking is absurd. It used to be 100 miles off the lot and a third of the value was gone. Because of COVID and exporting low mileage used vehicles abroad, now 50k mileage, 5 year old vehicles have an ask of only 30-40% below (today's!) new.

Another one.


It's the same chart, but still out of date:


https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/average-car-loan-interest-rates-by-credit-score/

Imagine paying over $500mo. for a used car that isn't a collectible or a super high end or specialty vehicle.

If you figure the mean credit score (think Single Moms and Millennial hoebags with massive college and Ulta Beauty credit cards) is about 640-650, 11% sounds right.

The Car Market is going to be wild.

Fortunately my lease isn't up until March. I think I might just get another lease on a lower end vehicle since I don't want to be a bagholder in case the prices don't really collapse until next summer or beyond.

AmericanKulak says

https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/average-car-loan-interest-rates-by-credit-score/

Imagine paying over $500mo. for a used car that isn't a collectible or a super high end or specialty vehicle.

My wife and I got lucky in 2021 with a Honda CRV from Panama City Toyota at a 1.5% rate for 6 years, though it was tough to negotiate as they only knocked down the MSRP price by $500 and they threw in a few extras like mats. Our monthly payment is around $450.

Never seen a car dealership that busy as we had to wait to see a sales rep.

AD says

My wife and I got lucky in 2021 with a Honda CRV from Panama City Toyota at a 1.5% rate for 6 years, though it was tough to negotiate as they only knocked down the MSRP price by $500 and they threw in a few extras like mats. Our monthly payment is around $450.

Does it have CVT? If yes, consider changing transmission fluid at every 30 to 40k miles.

AmericanKulak says

Fortunately my lease isn't up until March. I think I might just get another lease on a lower end vehicle since I don't want to be a bagholder in case the prices don't really collapse until next summer or beyond.

There might be some incentives during the post-Christmas to end-of-February slow season. I bought both my two current vehicles during that annual calendar window.

gabbar says

AD says

My wife and I got lucky in 2021 with a Honda CRV from Panama City Toyota at a 1.5% rate for 6 years, though it was tough to negotiate as they only knocked down the MSRP price by $500 and they threw in a few extras like mats. Our monthly payment is around $450.

Does it have CVT? If yes, consider changing transmission fluid at every 30 to 40k miles.

I read it does have a CVT. It has about 22,000 miles. I was originally planning on 50,000 miles transmission fluid change, but need to research this more.

Thanks for your post.


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Braman Honda in Miami says to change it around 90,000 miles.



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Big discounts inbound

AmericanKulak says

Big discounts inbound

Does this mean I'll get a good deal on a Citroën?

Shit. Current ones don't even look like the ones from the 70s and 80s.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Does this mean I'll get a good deal on a Citroën?

Jeep, Dodge/Ram... not good. Turns out the market for $70k+ Trucks and Jeeps isn't doing well right now.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1326-Bird-Ave-San-Jose-CA-95125/19683819_zpid/
Got some anecdotal evidence that south bay area ca market is slow which is good news in general. Sometimes seeing steep reductions in prices, not really sure if that would be real or tricking customers to get in. I know someone in east bay having hard time to sell their SFH.

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scroll down and you will see 7 month supply of homes for sale for Central Panhandle of Florida

https://www.cpar.us/main/cpar-real-estate-market-reports/

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Adam Taggart (Thoughtful Money channel) is one of the best finance and investing commentators, along with MishTalk and the Wolfman (WolfStreet).

Where is Logan at Housing Wire ? Read this, and I agree as housing needs to at least drop 20% below peak level set in early 2022.

For our townhome, if its value drops 20% from peak level in early 2022, then that means our home would appreciate 4% annually from 2016 (year of purchase) to mid-2025.

Meanwhile, household income locally in the Florida panhandle has increased at least 15% from early 2022 to present day.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2024-11-19/big-drop-home-prices-coming-next-year-melody-wright

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not looking good for Florida residential real estate :-/

https://www.wfla.com/news/hillsborough-county/home-sales-in-tampa-fall-amid-hurricane-recovery-insurance-rate-increases/

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https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1702-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/87637913_zpid/

this place has been on the rental market for over 100 days and still vacant and is about 2 miles from the beach

its listed for rent nearly at the same asking price back in January 2020 :-/

for townhome communities like this, usually 30 to 45% of the townhome units are rented (i.e., owned by landlord investors)

if rents stay down, that means landlord investors will pay less for townhomes in order to achieve a minimum capitalization (or "cap") rate :-/

most of the landlord investors I talk with depend on the townhome value going up about 3 % annually and they want a minimum cap rate of 4.5 % ; they hire a management company which charges about 10% of lease cost as part of maintaining the minimum cap rate

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AD says

I was originally planning on 50,000 miles transmission fluid change, but need to research this more.

90k miles is dangerous but they want you to buy autos more frequently. Less than 50k should be preferred.

gabbar says

AD says

I was originally planning on 50,000 miles transmission fluid change, but need to research this more.

90k miles is dangerous but they want you to buy autos more frequently. Less than 50k should be preferred.

You could take samples of the transmission fluid every 3 oil changes and have them analyzed just to be sure? That way you catch any issues with the CVT bands or pulleys starting to degrade and could still get optimum life out of the fluid.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Does this mean I'll get a good deal on a Citroën?

Shit. Current ones don't even look like the ones from the 70s and 80s.

They need to start selling their lower priced European cars in the US. Or make a US version here for cheap. Not everyone wants power seats, moonroof, heated everything, power windows, etc.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/11/21/demand-destruction-for-existing-homes-sales-in-2024-on-track-for-lowest-since-1995-amid-highest-supply-for-october-in-6-years/

Demand Destruction for Existing Houses: Sales in 2024 Track Lowest since 1995 amid Highest Supply for October in 6 Years

Too-high house prices cause demand destruction on an epic scale. Buyers’ strike continues in November and December.

US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage approaches 7%

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage rates increased to a four-month high this week, which together with higher home prices could sideline potential buyers from the housing market in the near term.

The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased to 6.84%, the highest level since July, from 6.785% last week, mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac said on Thursday. It averaged 7.29% during the same period a year ago.

Though the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice since September, U.S. Treasury yields have risen on strong economic data and investor fears that President-elect Donald Trump's policies, including higher tariffs on imported goods and mass deportations, could reignite inflation.

Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury note.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-30-fixed-rate-mortgage-172746908.html

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage approaches 7%

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. mortgage rates increased to a four-month high this week, which together with higher home prices could sideline potential buyers from the housing market in the near term.

Too much government debt on the bond market competing with the 30 yr mortgage bonds for bond market buyers

The 30 yr mortgage rate is usually around 1.5% greater than the 10 Year Treasury rate which is usually at least 1% greater than annual inflation.
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AD says

Too much government debt on the bond market competing with the 30 yr mortgage bonds for bond market buyers

Buyers of USTs are not the same buyers of mortgage paper (which is still bring bundled
..yes) and vice versa.

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Wolfman at Wolf Street and Mister Mish at MishTalk have excellent blog posts today about housing inventory.

Until housing prices drop more to account for +6% rate for the 30 yr mortgage, then housing inventory will accumulate.

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home price based on affordability standards.

Granted, since the 30 yr mortgage rate bottomed around 3% in early 2022, household income has increased about 20%. So accounting for this, home prices should be +20% below early 2022 levels.

Also home price to income ratio needs to drop more.

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Al_Sharpton_for_President says

OHH. Half Dome and full domes in the same shot.

OHH. Half Dome and full domes in the same shot.

AD says

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Wolfman at Wolf Street and Mister Mish at MishTalk have excellent blog posts today about housing inventory.

Until housing prices drop more to account for +6% rate for the 30 yr mortgage, then housing inventory will accumulate.

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home price based on affordability standards.

Granted, since the 30 yr mortgage rate bottomed around 3% in early 2022, household income has increased about 20%. So accounting for this, home prices should be +20% below early 2022 levels.

Also home price to income ratio needs to drop more.

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Something neither of these Gurus note is that most States have down payment assistance now for new homebuyers. It averages out at about $10k (Florida is right there in the middle of the pack). Toss in some personal savings and a few bucks from Mom and Dad and it levitates the historical price/income ratio.

Also, about 25% of houses are bought pure cash, Fuck the high mortgage rates.

Misc says

Also, about 25% of houses are bought pure cash, Fuck the high mortgage rates.

But it is the mortgaged purchases that determine prices in most markets.

zzyzzx says

Math was that guys weak subject in school. Or his contractors fucked him over. He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab. Outside of coastal areas, $50-75k is a solid profit on a flip. Better off working a part time job waiting for the deal. Should have waited until it was $300k. Doesn't go there, don't buy it.

Flipping is generally stupid in this market. Unless you can bird dog some senior or something looking to get rid of their house moving in with family or a home. Estate sale so to speak. The profit is minimal on flips outside of coastal areas. Even then it's tough. Gotta get to 12 months inventory and get bottom of the barrel. Either way short term cap gains are going to kill you on profit. Better off getting a multi-unit that you can eventually convert to condos after renting for 5 years.

WookieMan says

He overpaid for the house likely and then overpaid for the rehab

How does a buyer figure out if he is overpaying or not for a home? Real estate agents use comparables and this is how they justify the asking price.