patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

The Demographic Crunch is coming and is unavoidable. IL has been experiencing net migration and population loss for years and years now; and the huge influx of migrants and illegals still results in a net loss.

Not anymore. Given rates we're building pretty strong here. Not biased either. There's no homes for sale here. FL is a different story with different parts. People are moving out of Chicago now but still staying in state. FL probably has an overbuilding problem of houses, condos and apartments.

NY, CA have IL type exodus problems. We've for sure stabilized now though. Won't grow by any means, maybe still lose a little, but not a lot. If IL hit level 10, NY & CA are level 3-4 right now on the way to 10. That will decimate the national median which is the stat used to scare people and get clicks for media with no context to the story.

FL I think it's just tap the brakes on building for a year or two (mostly) and let demand catch up with inventory to level it out. You guys have had the influx of people that can actually retire already and likely overbuilt. Your average boomer is high 60-70 age wise. Past higher end SS collection age and 59-1/2 for IRA/401k with no penalty. Basically if you were 60 you should have retired and if you wanted a condo in FL already did it a decade ago. So they built to demand and it's drying up because everyone did it.

Time flies when you're having fun. Boomers that can't retire won't and will stay put. Those that can already did. We're a decade past that timeline. There's no mass movement of geezers. Or they stay put because they can afford to or can't because they're broke. We've crossed the Boomer moving threshold is my point. It's over.

WookieMan says

That will decimate the national median which is the stat used to scare people and get clicks for media with no context to the story.

What does this mean? Can you explain this, please.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

That will decimate the national median which is the stat used to scare people and get clicks for media with no context to the story.

What does this mean? Can you explain this, please.

Median national price. If you include NY, IL, CA or any states with an exodus moving into lower priced states the median price nationally goes down. It's a scare tactic to get clicks and views for ad revenue for media and real estate commentators. Meanwhile Nebraska, Wyoming, Arkansas or Alabama are doing just fine. And most states.

Ignore national median is all I'll say. It's a bull shit metric. Maybe look at your state, but here in IL go by county. People are staying in the state now, but just moving out of Chicago to cheaper homes/rent and better schools. Millennials are finally having kids and I think the even younger generation is having more kids too.

Point is 3 states could bring the national median down 10-20%. Looks awful. It's because it's dictated by coastal states. Focus on your state and county level values. If people are leaving, the higher end homes will lose the most and others will follow. If CA doesn't sell 300 $30M homes and cuts them to $20M, that moves the national median. Same with NYC. Condos and houses drop $5-10M median goes lower.

Thing is generally no one is losing in those markets. Sure they lost money but now the rest of the country feels like it's a crash and panic. The loans are good now for the most part. It's inventory and delinquencies to keep an eye on. Not national median.

WookieMan says

Ignore national median is all I'll say.

I say that as well. Median SALE price is over pumped because top buyers who don't feel econ pressure can still buy, giving a false impression. Inventories are rising while closed sales are collapsing, distorting the reality. Lender Vigilantism going the opposite way of Fed rate cuts.

Rents and Time on Market and Average LIST price are better metrics.

Where do we from here? Is this stagflation? I paid $16 for a sandwich yesterday. In Cleveland!
What are all the real estate agents, brokers, mortgage officers, home inspectors etc. doing and are going to be doing in the next few years? Layoffs in IT are happening and outsourcing is booming.

Since we are talking about FL in this thread. One family decided to sell their condo in FL and move back to Cleveland because they like the access to Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland! They plan to vacation in FL but the condo is sold.

gabbar says

Where do we from here? Is this stagflation? I paid $16 for a sandwich yesterday. In Cleveland!
What are all the real estate agents, brokers, mortgage officers, home inspectors etc. doing and are going to be doing in the next few years? Layoffs in IT are happening and outsourcing is booming.

America is struggling with being American vs selling america out to highest bidder.

So, when do the wheels fall off?

GNL says

So, when do the wheels fall off?

no one knows. 2019 was falling off, so they did pandemic and mass bailouts to inflate economy. can never time it. last 2 years of 30% increased was all inflation driven.

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https://www.newsweek.com/us-housing-market-mirroring-2008-bubble-real-estate-analyst-2005520

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AD says

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https://www.newsweek.com/us-housing-market-mirroring-2008-bubble-real-estate-analyst-2005520

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if it’s on a news it’s opposite of reality. news are always selling pump and dump schemes for the wealthy. they were screaming “buy now or price out forever” during actual bubble. and “it’ll never recover” when it collapsed. so that’s my opinion from life experience.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

if it’s on a news it’s opposite of reality. news are always selling pump and dump schemes for the wealthy. they were screaming “buy now or price out forever” during actual bubble. and “it’ll never recover” when it collapsed. so that’s my opinion from life experience.

This time the Blackrocks are getting fucked. And they own entire neighborhoods that they simply dump w/o regards to the normal considerations individual home owners contend with.

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

AD says

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https://www.newsweek.com/us-housing-market-mirroring-2008-bubble-real-estate-analyst-2005520

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if it’s on a news it’s opposite of reality. news are always selling pump and dump schemes for the wealthy. they were screaming “buy now or price out forever” during actual bubble. and “it’ll never recover” when it collapsed. so that’s my opinion from life experience.

when the Patel's, Gupta's and Singh's buy with their LLCs , then you know you are close to bottom for housing market

a Singh bought this townhome recently , and they bought it with a LLC out of Boulder, Colorado

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1741-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/121153821_zpid/

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