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housing prices peak 2
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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm 607,800 views 5,694 comments
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569
AD
2022 Aug 15, 10:53pm
AD
2022 Aug 15, 10:53pm
Booger says
Not sure as they make about $800 on the mortgage origination fee and then they can sell the mortgages via mortgage back securities (MBS) in order to remove the liability from their financial books. They make at least a 20% profit from the origination fee after accounting for salaries, overhead, etc.
,
Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated
Not sure as they make about $800 on the mortgage origination fee and then they can sell the mortgages via mortgage back securities (MBS) in order to remove the liability from their financial books. They make at least a 20% profit from the origination fee after accounting for salaries, overhead, etc.
,
570
richwicks
2022 Aug 15, 11:01pm
richwicks
2022 Aug 15, 11:01pm
Patrick says
Buffet probably isn't stupid, but he's not a genius so much as he's connected. Don't think the government doesn't directly assist him.
Buffett isn't dumb.
Buffet probably isn't stupid, but he's not a genius so much as he's connected. Don't think the government doesn't directly assist him.
571
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 16, 5:11am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 16, 5:11am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html
The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market
The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market
572
GNL
2022 Aug 16, 5:14am
GNL
2022 Aug 16, 5:14am
zzyzzx says
Just what exactly is the stock market trading on? A hot economy? TBTF? "The fed always has our back"?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html
The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market
Just what exactly is the stock market trading on? A hot economy? TBTF? "The fed always has our back"?
573
1337irr
2022 Aug 16, 5:36am
1337irr
2022 Aug 16, 5:36am
ad says
The forecast is for an increase in foreclosures. Foreclosures are expensive because of all the legal fees, insurance and customer contact demand. Wells Fargo is good to get out. I say that based on my previous mortgage experience,
Booger says
Wells Fargo Plans Major Retreat From Mortgage Business It Long Dominated
Not sure as they make about $800 on the mortgage origination fee and then they can sell the mortgages via mortgage back securities (MBS) in order to remove the liability from their financial books. They make at least a 20% profit from the origination fee after accounting for salaries, overhead, etc.
,
The forecast is for an increase in foreclosures. Foreclosures are expensive because of all the legal fees, insurance and customer contact demand. Wells Fargo is good to get out. I say that based on my previous mortgage experience,
574
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 16, 5:52am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 16, 5:52am
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-16/buyers-get-cold-feet-home-sale-cancellations-jump-in-july
US Home-Sale Cancellations Soar in July as Buyers Pull Back
US Home-Sale Cancellations Soar in July as Buyers Pull Back
575
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 16, 5:56am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 16, 5:56am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/15/homes/rising-rent-wages-housing
Majority of Americans say they're worried about being able to pay for housing
Majority of Americans say they're worried about being able to pay for housing
576
WookieMan
2022 Aug 16, 6:03am
WookieMan
2022 Aug 16, 6:03am
1337irr says
They learned 2006-12. Foreclosures are more expensive. Remember they're on the hook for property taxes as well. Banks save substantially more getting "some" money.
Say your payment is $1,000. It will easily cost the bank $500/mo if they kick your ass out and that still takes a year or so of getting nothing. Loans are amortized, so the money is made up front. If you got someone that has paid 2-3+, you're in the green still. Defer or reduce the payment for a set period, let the owner take care of the place, and hope the situation gets better.
I was in the trenches for 4-5 years with REO's (foreclosed homes). Bankers have no business in real estate management or sales. They're morons. If I was running the banks I'd have fired EVERY single person I dealt with during that time. ALL of them. Also real estate brokers managing properties that have been foreclosed is a fucking joke. They don't know how to manage properties. They're sales people. I don't think we'll ever see a housing bust like that again in our lifetimes. I could be wrong, as people are prone to make the same mistakes.
Foreclosures are expensive because of all the legal fees, insurance and customer contact demand.
They learned 2006-12. Foreclosures are more expensive. Remember they're on the hook for property taxes as well. Banks save substantially more getting "some" money.
Say your payment is $1,000. It will easily cost the bank $500/mo if they kick your ass out and that still takes a year or so of getting nothing. Loans are amortized, so the money is made up front. If you got someone that has paid 2-3+, you're in the green still. Defer or reduce the payment for a set period, let the owner take care of the place, and hope the situation gets better.
I was in the trenches for 4-5 years with REO's (foreclosed homes). Bankers have no business in real estate management or sales. They're morons. If I was running the banks I'd have fired EVERY single person I dealt with during that time. ALL of them. Also real estate brokers managing properties that have been foreclosed is a fucking joke. They don't know how to manage properties. They're sales people. I don't think we'll ever see a housing bust like that again in our lifetimes. I could be wrong, as people are prone to make the same mistakes.
577
gabbar
2022 Aug 16, 12:25pm
gabbar
2022 Aug 16, 12:25pm
The so-called "monetary theory" is only a ruse to manipulate the economy. Politicians and their campaign financiers have been benefiting from massive deficit spending (no valid budget) thereby avoiding a vote to increase in taxes. Deficit spending gives politicians more power because of the newly created "fake money" that is basically distributed at their discretion (to fight wars in Ukraine, Afghanistan and wars in the future). The Ponzi scheme of the fed hurts the poor the most as it drives inflation. The wealthy watch their assets rise in value while the poor and middle class get crushed by an increase in the cost of living, real wage reduction, and an increase in taxes. Property taxes, sale taxes, and income taxes increase. This increase in taxes reduces the opportunity for savings by the poor and middle class and can drive them into debt, risking bankruptcy instead of the opportunity for financial freedom. This is how the rich get richer and poor get poorer. Every tax increase gives your freedom to the government and their controllers.
578
GNL
2022 Aug 16, 1:03pm
GNL
2022 Aug 16, 1:03pm
WookieMan says
Can you explain this comment? You seem to know a bit. I just don't know what you mean by "manage foreclosures".
Also real estate brokers managing properties that have been foreclosed is a fucking joke.forec
Can you explain this comment? You seem to know a bit. I just don't know what you mean by "manage foreclosures".
579
RWSGFY
2022 Aug 16, 5:47pm
RWSGFY
2022 Aug 16, 5:47pm
gabbar says
Isn't it a contradiction?
The so-called "monetary theory" is only a ruse to manipulate the economy. Politicians and their campaign financiers have been benefiting from massive deficit spending (no valid budget) thereby avoiding a vote to increase in taxes.
....
The wealthy watch their assets rise in value while the poor and middle class get crushed by an increase in the cost of living, real wage reduction, and an increase in taxes.
Isn't it a contradiction?
580
🎂
porkchopXpress
2022 Aug 16, 7:23pm
porkchopXpress
2022 Aug 16, 7:23pm
So do you rent in inflationary times or buy a house with dropping prices? Decisions.
581
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 17, 5:46am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 17, 5:46am
https://finance.yahoo.com/m/212d18cc-91f0-3129-ac56-183b8cbda094/lowe%E2%80%99s-sales-drop-again-as.html
Lowe’s Sales Drop Again as Homeowners Pull Back on Discretionary Purchases
Lowe’s Sales Drop Again as Homeowners Pull Back on Discretionary Purchases
582
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 17, 6:11am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 17, 6:11am
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/17/mortgage-demand-fell-last-week-even-as-rates-declined-slightly.html
Mortgage demand fell last week even as rates declined slightly
Mortgage demand fell last week even as rates declined slightly
584
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 17, 6:18am
zzyzzx
2022 Aug 17, 6:18am
https://austin.culturemap.com/news/real-estate/08-16-22-austin-real-estate-report-housing-inventory-highest-levels-since-2018/
Austin housing inventory skyrockets to highest levels since 2018
Austin housing inventory skyrockets to highest levels since 2018
585
WookieMan
2022 Aug 18, 1:14pm
WookieMan
2022 Aug 18, 1:14pm
GNLusedto says
Bank owns the property. They hire a RE broker to manage it and make sure it doesn't break (so to speak). They (brokers) then hire out another party to take care of the place. Winterizing, weekly checkups, etc. So basically 3-4 levels deep from the actual owner, the bank. Someone does AND will always drop the ball and the property gets fucked up costing the banks thousands at minimum and potentially 100's of thousands.
If you don't trust RE agents in sales, management is even worse. And that's the go to when a property forecloses unless things have changed in the last 3-4 years, which they should have. Brokers who are sales whores (which you likely know from our conversations) have no clue how to manage property. 9 out of 10 times they can't change a faucet in the bathroom or kitchen. Many are bimbos. Never trust an RE broker with managing your property. Never. They're sales people. They sell homes, don't manage. Hell most cannot manage their business without going BK at some point in the cycles of RE.
Can you explain this comment? You seem to know a bit. I just don't know what you mean by "manage foreclosures".
Bank owns the property. They hire a RE broker to manage it and make sure it doesn't break (so to speak). They (brokers) then hire out another party to take care of the place. Winterizing, weekly checkups, etc. So basically 3-4 levels deep from the actual owner, the bank. Someone does AND will always drop the ball and the property gets fucked up costing the banks thousands at minimum and potentially 100's of thousands.
If you don't trust RE agents in sales, management is even worse. And that's the go to when a property forecloses unless things have changed in the last 3-4 years, which they should have. Brokers who are sales whores (which you likely know from our conversations) have no clue how to manage property. 9 out of 10 times they can't change a faucet in the bathroom or kitchen. Many are bimbos. Never trust an RE broker with managing your property. Never. They're sales people. They sell homes, don't manage. Hell most cannot manage their business without going BK at some point in the cycles of RE.
587
FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden
2022 Aug 18, 2:00pm
zzyzzx says
boise is super expensive with all the CA millionnaires moving in with equity. many of those folks are moving to meridian. housing prices here are at peak, and taxes aren’t locked.
Free Pizza with house:
boise is super expensive with all the CA millionnaires moving in with equity. many of those folks are moving to meridian. housing prices here are at peak, and taxes aren’t locked.
588
1337irr
2022 Aug 18, 2:55pm
1337irr
2022 Aug 18, 2:55pm
Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST...but the state and local governments worries me.
589
Patrick
2022 Aug 19, 8:20am
Patrick
2022 Aug 19, 8:20am
https://notthebee.com/article/hoo-boy-new-housing-construction-plunged-last-month-flashing-a-telltale-warning-sign-for-a-possible-recession
Hoo boy: New housing construction plunged last month, adding more worry of a mass housing crash
590
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 Aug 19, 8:47am
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 Aug 19, 8:47am
1337irr says
I wish what you wrote is true.
This summer, prices have only crashed to the Super-Expensive Super-Overpriced level of about a year or so ago.
If the prices fall by half, which would be a good thing for Local Kids and Employers in the region (and therefore for the local economy), then prices would be reasonable. Reasonable, but not cheap.
Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST
I wish what you wrote is true.
This summer, prices have only crashed to the Super-Expensive Super-Overpriced level of about a year or so ago.
If the prices fall by half, which would be a good thing for Local Kids and Employers in the region (and therefore for the local economy), then prices would be reasonable. Reasonable, but not cheap.
591
Booger
2022 Aug 19, 8:52am
Booger
2022 Aug 19, 8:52am
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-19/mortgage-lenders-are-starting-to-go-broke-as-loan-volumes-plunge?srnd=premium
US Mortgage Lenders Are Starting to Go Broke
US Mortgage Lenders Are Starting to Go Broke
593
Booger
2022 Aug 19, 10:13am
Booger
2022 Aug 19, 10:13am
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/real-estate-news/article264650054.html
Miami-Dade housing market finally cooling, as prices dip for first time since 2021
Miami-Dade housing market finally cooling, as prices dip for first time since 2021
594
EBGuy
2022 Aug 19, 4:28pm
1337irr says
I'm with B.A.C.A.H. on this. Not seeing weakness in Fortress East Bay. I do expect normal seasonality to kick in for the Fall. Hopefully we'll start seeing some drops soon as price to rent ratio is extremely out of whack...
Bay Area is starting to look cheap REAL FAST...
I'm with B.A.C.A.H. on this. Not seeing weakness in Fortress East Bay. I do expect normal seasonality to kick in for the Fall. Hopefully we'll start seeing some drops soon as price to rent ratio is extremely out of whack...
595
RedStar
2022 Aug 19, 4:49pm
RedStar
2022 Aug 19, 4:49pm
I'm already getting desperate calls from lenders for a refi.Dumb fucks all my mortgages are under 3.5.
596
1337irr
2022 Aug 19, 5:14pm
1337irr
2022 Aug 19, 5:14pm
I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...
597
Booger
2022 Aug 19, 5:17pm
Booger
2022 Aug 19, 5:17pm
1337irr says
I'm surprised that it hasn't happened already several times. Same for NYC.
I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...
I'm surprised that it hasn't happened already several times. Same for NYC.
599
Patrick
2022 Aug 19, 6:28pm
Patrick
2022 Aug 19, 6:28pm
1337irr says
Some guy I worked with told me that this is not possible because of the bathrooms. Each apartment needs its own bathroom, but office buildings simply do not have that infrastructure.
I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...
Some guy I worked with told me that this is not possible because of the bathrooms. Each apartment needs its own bathroom, but office buildings simply do not have that infrastructure.
600
Ceffer
2022 Aug 19, 6:29pm
Ceffer
2022 Aug 19, 6:29pm
Patrick says
Since when did anybody in SF need a bathroom?
ome guy I worked with told me that this is not possible because of the bathrooms. Each apartment needs its own bathroom, but office buildings simply do not have that infrastructure.
Since when did anybody in SF need a bathroom?
601
richwicks
2022 Aug 19, 7:37pm
richwicks
2022 Aug 19, 7:37pm
1337irr says
Haha - I'm waiting for commercial real estate buildings to be converted into residential.
I was kind of disappointed that malls were never converted to residential units. They could have done that. It would be nice to live in an area where at the ground floor are trees and grass, illuminated by a skylight and heated and cooled year round. That would be the fake outside, but still you could go for a walk in December in upstate New York in shorts with your family and dog.
Problem with malls though, is they were all built like crap.
I'm curious if an office tower or two in downtown SF will be converted to residential. Be expensive...
Haha - I'm waiting for commercial real estate buildings to be converted into residential.
I was kind of disappointed that malls were never converted to residential units. They could have done that. It would be nice to live in an area where at the ground floor are trees and grass, illuminated by a skylight and heated and cooled year round. That would be the fake outside, but still you could go for a walk in December in upstate New York in shorts with your family and dog.
Problem with malls though, is they were all built like crap.
605
Michael Cooke
2022 Aug 20, 3:04pm
I don't want to see 5.6% mortgage rates. I want to see 25.6% mortgage rates.
606
Michael Cooke
2022 Aug 20, 3:07pm
GNLused says
GameStop (stock) of course.
That stock is proof of inflation..
zzyzzx says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html
The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market
Just what exactly is the stock market trading on? A hot economy? TBTF? "The fed always has our back"?
GameStop (stock) of course.
That stock is proof of inflation..
607
Booger
2022 Aug 20, 3:10pm
Booger
2022 Aug 20, 3:10pm
GNLused says
Nobody wants to invest in housing or crypto, so the stock market wins by default.
zzyzzx says
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-live-news-updates-august-16-115939840.html
The stock market isn't bothered by a cratering housing market
Just what exactly is the stock market trading on? A hot economy? TBTF? "The fed always has our back"?
Nobody wants to invest in housing or crypto, so the stock market wins by default.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.