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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   645,314 views  6,299 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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6157   Patrick   2025 Apr 12, 7:40pm  

I plotted that column with gnuplot:


6158   Patrick   2025 Apr 12, 7:42pm  

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14596061/panicked-buyers-bailing-home-contracts-amid-chaotic-markets-plummeting-bank-accounts.html


Spring is typically the best season for the housing market in the US. Not this year.

The housing market is struggling as panicked buyers back out of deals amid widespread financial uncertainty. One homebuyer in Florida, Joel Efosa, tells Daily Mail that he not optimistic about where the US housing market is headed, but he does have a plan - to wait for a market crash to buy.

'I'm waiting on the market to cycle as it did in 2008. This is a perfect storm for an eventual market crash due to this affordability crisis. I will be one of the smart ones waiting on the sideline to buy at the right time, not at the top of the market,' he says.
6160   ForcedTQ   2025 Apr 12, 9:08pm  

EBGuy says

In Florida, the boomer dieoff has begun....




But, rate per 100k is lowest it’s been since 2018….
6161   AD   2025 Apr 12, 10:21pm  

WookieMan says

AmericanKulak says


Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

Gotta look at internal migration for the states. FL had a huge influx of Boomers. They're dying. FL built for what was coming in not realizing it was a 10-20 deal to be alive. As they die inventory is gonna go up and prices go down.

No one is 65-70 and wakes up one morning and says they gonna move to IL. So we didn't build for 2 decades. Now we are again. Demographics on population, inventory and probability of work are easy indicators as to where you market it gonna move.


Will have to see the reason for any recovery of Illinois population such as new manufacturing jobs for young married couple, etc

Maybe there are incentives to move to rural Illinois for economic refugees escaping expensive Florida.



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6162   AD   2025 Apr 12, 10:25pm  

Patrick says


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14596061/panicked-buyers-bailing-home-contracts-amid-chaotic-markets-plummeting-bank-accounts.html

Spring is typically the best season for the housing market in the US. Not this year.

The housing market is struggling as panicked buyers back out of deals amid widespread financial uncertainty. One homebuyer in Florida, Joel Efosa, tells Daily Mail that he not optimistic about where the US housing market is headed, but he does have a plan - to wait for a market crash to buy.

'I'm waiting on the market to cycle as it did in 2008. This is a perfect storm for an eventual market crash due to this affordability crisis. I will be one of the smart ones waiting on the sideline to buy at the right time, not at the top of the market,' he says.


Housing peaked around 2006 and then dropped from 2006 to 2011.

Housing peaked around 2022 in the Florida panhandle. So maybe the bottom feeders are looking for a crash 4 years later (in 2026).

A 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 1 car garage townhome in my HOA just sold for around $272,000. It would have easily sold for $330,000 in 2022

and another 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome in my HOA just sold for $285,000

So its hard to tell if we are going to have a crash like the bottom feeders are hoping for, or is it just going to level off to where it is now (while household income increases 2% annually) which is about 15 to 20% below 2022 peak prices, or all time high prices

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6163   Patrick   2025 Apr 12, 10:38pm  

ForcedTQ says


But, rate per 100k is lowest it’s been since 2018….


Florida has had a massive increase in population which is probably making average age there much younger than it used to be.
6164   AD   2025 Apr 12, 10:41pm  

Misc says


AmericanKulak says
Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.


From what I've read online such as Florida Politics page, Florida Today, etc the state is diversifying its economy.

Where I live in the Florida panhandle there is a shipyard that builds Coast Guard ships, off shore vessels, tug boats, ferry boats, and is vying to build Navy ships.

And we have other manufacturing like Berg Pipe, Trane Air Conditioning, an industrial washing machine manufacturer, an outboard motor manufacturing facility, a small pleasure fishing boat manufacturer, etc

They also have a few software companies here as well.

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6165   AD   2025 Apr 12, 10:44pm  

Patrick says


ForcedTQ says


But, rate per 100k is lowest it’s been since 2018….


Florida has had a massive increase in population which is probably making average age there much younger than it used to be.



The growth in Florida panhandle like Bay County is due to the shipyard growing, Tyndall Air Force Base growing its drone program, and manufacturing base growing as well as they brought in tech companies like accounting software company and they have an incubator called Tech Farms which has created a few startups that local private capital investors (mostly restaurant / bar owners, lawyers and doctors) are funding.

I know this also by following the amount of school bonds issued by county in Florida for new construction as well as expansion of existing schools.

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6166   WookieMan   2025 Apr 12, 11:22pm  

AD says

Will have to see the reason for any recovery of Illinois population such as new manufacturing jobs for young married couple, etc

It's not about "recovery" here. We stopped building for 20 years. Florida kept building after the crash as northerns move down there. That phase is done. Boomers are retired. The buying is done. FL overbuilt.

That's the FL market and not the overall market. I would not be buying in FL, TX or CA right now.
6167   AD   2025 Apr 13, 1:02am  

WookieMan says


That's the FL market and not the overall market.


You never bring up the income tax, sales tax and property tax even in rural Illinois.

Yes, and I noticed they stop construction even in Panama City Beach such as with Hathaway Luxury Apartments (down street from Hathaway Bridge), which they excavated and then stopped work.

And there are boomers who are now 55 years to 65 years old who are getting ready to move to Florida.

And that is why I said Florida has been diversifying its economy so is not only about growth from retirees moving there and tourism, at least I am seeing that firsthand in the Florida panhandle.

And Patrick brings up a good point as I heard the same thing on local NPR news that Florida's population is getting younger.

So they will adjust housing inventory based on population trends in Florida. They overbuild and then you have a 20% price drop and then they start building again.

Glad though we bought in 2016 and not around 2022.

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6168   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 13, 7:55am  

AD says

And there are boomers who are now 55


Those are GenX, not Boomers.
6169   WookieMan   2025 Apr 13, 8:53am  

MolotovCocktail says

AD says


And there are boomers who are now 55


Those are GenX, not Boomers.

The boomer ship has sailed at this point. Those that could retire did. The others will just keep working or die. My parents are/were boomers. My mom has already been retired for 10 years. Sold everything off.

Boomers are only a factor in healthcare at this point. Not housing. Younger generation just can’t afford the housing and few are building.
6170   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 13, 9:35am  

Boomers were 1946 - 1964.

GenX 1965 - 1980

Millennials 1981 - 1996.
6171   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 13, 9:36am  

WookieMan says

Boomers are only a factor in healthcare at this point. Not housing.


Holding huge amounts of housing is a factor in housing.
6172   AD   2025 Apr 13, 10:22am  

MolotovCocktail says

AD says


And there are boomers who are now 55


Those are GenX, not Boomers.


Okay, I meant to say older Gen X types like those 55 and only 2 years until minimum retirement age (MRA) for their government jobs like federal, police, fireman, etc

.
6173   AD   2025 Apr 13, 10:48am  

.

I know Bay County, Florida and particularly Panama City Beach government actively tracks demographic trends as far as zoning, housing development, etc

As Larry Sabato says, demographics is destiny.

I always enjoyed listening to Ken Gronbach on Coast to Coast AM. He brings up how Levis Strauss was too set on baby boomers and never accounted for that younger generations may not have as much interest in its jeans.

.
6174   WookieMan   2025 Apr 13, 11:06am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


Boomers are only a factor in healthcare at this point. Not housing.


Holding huge amounts of housing is a factor in housing.

If they're not selling it doesn't matter. They give it to their kids. No transaction happens and it doesn't move the market. Fact is those that wanted to sell already did. Factor in low interest rates most got, housing isn't moving in a meaningful way up or down.

I was employed in RE and finances for 15+ years. Eman maybe had me on investment property when he was around, but no one here is at my knowledge level. Reading articles and listing to "news" is not actively participating in the trade.
6175   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 13, 11:11am  

WookieMan says

If they're not selling it doesn't matter


Wrong. It matters. Just like foreigners who own vacant condos in Vancouver and SF impact their housing markets.
6176   WookieMan   2025 Apr 13, 11:16am  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


If they're not selling it doesn't matter


Wrong. It matters. Just like foreigners who own vacant condos in Vancouver and SF impact their housing markets.

Building matters. Not holding. We haven't built in 2 decades in most of the country. There's no inventory. I'm not sure why you can't understand that. I've been saying it for years. Boomers already sold or are holding and very few are building to keep up with population. This is basic 5th grade math.
6177   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 13, 12:09pm  

WookieMan says

Building matters. Not holding.


Yes building matters. But holding doesn't is bullshit. Because that effects the NET new building we require.

Old folk won't move out of their 4 bedroom homes into a smaller abode so a young family can move in.

Then again, you think driving distance somehow means that rural package deliveries outnumbers urban.
6178   WookieMan   2025 Apr 13, 1:07pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Old folk won't move out of their 4 bedroom homes into a smaller abode so a young family can move in.

They usually never did. My grandparents didn't. All the boomers and their children I'm friends with own the same home from when they were 25-35.

We also lost over a decade of skilled trades. My plumber and electrician friends don't even hang out anymore. They're working 12 hour+ days. Builders can't build if they don't have the labor. Younger generation are not wanting to get into trades doubling down on the shortage.

This is why housing has gotten so high and will continue to in most places.

MolotovCocktail says

Then again, you think driving distance somehow means that rural package deliveries outnumbers urban.

Explain why? I never said delivery quantity. More distance driving to get the same number of packages to an address than urban areas. This is basic common sense. To deliver 600 packages in a rural area you're going to have to drive double the amount at minimum. Don't worry, I've done it and wife was in shipping out of college.

I go off what I know, not what I "think" I know. I don't run my mouth here talking about stuff I haven't experience or know first hand.
6179   HeadSet   2025 Apr 13, 1:13pm  

WookieMan says

Eman maybe had me on investment property when he was around, but no one here is at my knowledge level.

Hey, I am feeling left out here. After all I did have to educate you on waterfront properties with septics, plus how assessments outside your local experience actually can increase by over $2k in a single year.
6180   WookieMan   2025 Apr 13, 1:18pm  

HeadSet says

WookieMan says


Eman maybe had me on investment property when he was around, but no one here is at my knowledge level.

Hey, I am feeling left out here. After all I did have to educate you on waterfront properties with septics, plus how assessments outside your local experience actually can increase by over $2k in a single year.

Assessments increase because you let them. Appeal. Come in with data. I've never lost one out of dozens for myself and family.

I don't recall the septic thing. They're on every waterfront property in Wisconsin not in Milwaukee or Madison. They're sized based on the number of bathrooms. There are also different kids of septic systems. Just has to be sized to the house and bathrooms. Not sure what you're talking about.
6181   Fortwaye   2025 Apr 13, 3:10pm  

MolotovCocktail says

Boomers were 1946 - 1964.

GenX 1965 - 1980

Millennials 1981 - 1996.


Gen X here. boomers they are all retired with money in annuities if they have any. most whom I know , live off social security, barely scraping by. they are selling in cities moving to lower cost living areas to die in peace.
6182   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 13, 4:11pm  

WookieMan says

go off what I know, not what I "think" I know


No. You go off on total bullshit.

WookieMan says

don't run my mouth here talking about stuff I haven't experience or know first hand.


What? I don't know what grandparents are?
6183   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 13, 4:12pm  

WookieMan says

never said delivery quantity.


You responded as such. Now that you got caught, you are trying to deny it.

You do this all the time.
6184   Fortwaye   2025 Apr 13, 4:18pm  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


never said delivery quantity.


You responded as such. Now that you got caught, you are trying to deny it.

You do this all the time.


Brothers in Christ, please learn to put up with each other and let things go, none of it is important. It is what Christ called us to and apostle Paul reminded us about, let it go and love one another in Christ.
6185   stfu   2025 Apr 13, 6:02pm  

MolotovCocktail says

You do this all the time.

You are fighting the good fight against either a master level troll or a complete moron.

Use the ignore function - it's made Patnet a much better place for me.
6186   WookieMan   2025 Apr 13, 6:40pm  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says
go off what I know, not what I "think" I know

No. You go off on total bullshit.

Good rebuttal. Lol. I know more than anyone on this site about real estate. Reading a bunch of crap here or media has demolished your brain and thought process. Keep being the the crazy person in the room. You're outmatched.
6187   Fortwaye   2025 Apr 13, 8:02pm  

WookieMan says

MolotovCocktail says


WookieMan says
go off what I know, not what I "think" I know

No. You go off on total bullshit.

Good rebuttal. Lol. I know more than anyone on this site about real estate. Reading a bunch of crap here or media has demolished your brain and thought process. Keep being the the crazy person in the room. You're outmatched.


oh i don’t know about that. there were 2 very smart fellas here that did well in RE in california. Eman and pkennedy. those guys knew a lot. but i’m not doubting you. just saying there are very smart guys here. i’m not that RE savvy myself. i’m just an ordinary landlord, not an investor.
6188   WookieMan   2025 Apr 13, 9:13pm  

Fortwaye says

oh i don’t know about that. there were 2 very smart fellas here that did well in RE in california. Eman and pkennedy. those guys knew a lot. but i’m not doubting you. just saying there are very smart guys here. i’m not that RE savvy myself. i’m just an ordinary landlord, not an investor.

They were ordinary landlords as well. I studied for 6 years and did it for 15 actively. Rentals are not the market everyone here wants to know about. They want to know if they should buy or if their home value is going to drop. I know that. I know 1,000 brokers, lenders, attorneys, inspectors. No one here does.

I also know how to run a brokerage and business. I'm semi retired at 41 and just have fun. You don't get there without knowing what you're doing. So I take offense, not at you, but when others talk out their ass.
6189   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 14, 9:14am  

WookieMan says

I know more than anyone on this site about real estate





6190   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 14, 9:16am  

stfu says


You are fighting the good fight against either a master level troll or a complete moron.


^^^ He only trolls when he gets caught being a moron. Therefore, he's not being a complete moron, I'll give him that.
6191   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 14, 9:18am  






This last one is also the action figure for a recruiter in the tech industry.
6192   WookieMan   2025 Apr 14, 9:19am  

I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.
6193   Fortwaye   2025 Apr 14, 9:20am  

WookieMan says

Fortwaye says


oh i don’t know about that. there were 2 very smart fellas here that did well in RE in california. Eman and pkennedy. those guys knew a lot. but i’m not doubting you. just saying there are very smart guys here. i’m not that RE savvy myself. i’m just an ordinary landlord, not an investor.

They were ordinary landlords as well. I studied for 6 years and did it for 15 actively. Rentals are not the market everyone here wants to know about. They want to know if they should buy or if their home value is going to drop. I know that. I know 1,000 brokers, lenders, attorneys, inspectors. No one here does.

I also know how to run a brokerage and business. I'm semi retired at 41 and just have fun. You don't get there without knowing what you're doing. So I take offense, not at you, but when others talk out their ass.


that’s awesome. i never learned anything about that industry. would like to, but never know where to start. just know how to basic landlord.
6194   MolotovCocktail   2025 Apr 14, 9:24am  

WookieMan says

I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.


You being called out for being full if shit isn't an attack. It's a public service.
6195   GNL   2025 Apr 14, 10:39am  

ForcedTQ says

Willing to bet most home owners were at one time renters who save.

Haha, didn't you know, everyone goes straight from high school and college to homeowner.
6196   WookieMan   2025 Apr 14, 1:30pm  

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says


I loved being attacked when I'm right. It's kind of comical for me. Makes me know I'm right.


You being called out for being full if shit isn't an attack. It's a public service.

I'm not petty to troll most the users here. Name a point you made where it wasn't a Lebron James pounding his feet for not getting a foul called? Those are you comments and posts. No content or thought. It's turned into all images now. Can't even write a coherent comment.

Mirrors work. Look at your comments and posts. Sexy picture thread? That's something a gay would do to cover up their gayness. Projecting projecting straightness when it's a lie.

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