patrick.net

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https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7684-Shadow-Lake-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/305989634_zpid/

Sept 2020: sold for $220,000 (brand new purchase)

21 April 2022: sold for $369,000

Jan 2024: Listed for sale $369,000
(this HOA allows short term / vacation rentals since its 2 miles to the beach, I wonder if they could not make $ on this)

Oct 2024: Barclay's Mortgage sued in October 2024 the owner as he was defaulted on the $277,425 mortgage for this townhome
link: https://trellis.law/doc/221328647/2-other-ep-initial-complaint-unofficial

Feb 2025: sold for $280,000
(a 24% drop from 21 April 2022 price, and about a 5.5% annual appreciation since 2020)

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AD says

Feb 2025: sold for $280,000
(a 24% drop from 21 April 2022 price, and about a 5.5% annual appreciation since 2020)

This is why I say coastal markets don't really know what is going in the rest of the market. Mind you, you know your market better than I do. Most of the country doesn't have vacation rentals outside of cities or at least in quantity. That skews the market massively.

I've driven down 98 past that area for 20 years when we're down there. We drive east from Pensacola and stop for lunch in Destin or PCB to break the drive up to St. George Island. Then vacation rental prices and purchases prices went full retard so we don't go anymore. My mom and sister were just down in Navarre Beach about 2 weeks ago.

Hindsight is 20/20 but I would have bought the house we stayed at if I knew better. Private subdivision (Plantation) on a barrier island for $480k in 2016 roughly. That house has to be worth $1M now and could have had renters pay it down. That island has gone bat shit crazy since they don't allow high rises or condo towers. Low supply. Also had a landing strip in the subdivision.

To get into St. George Island you're gonna need $200-500k down payment or cash. It's gotten crazy in the last decade.

MolotovCocktail says

What is a "typical home" versus a "typical apartment?" Are we comparing a 1500 sqft 3-bedroom house on a suburban lot to a 900 sqft 2-bedroom flat in a highrise?

HeadSet says

What is a "typical home" versus a "typical apartment?" Are we comparing a 1500 sqft 3-bedroom house on a suburban lot to a 900 sqft 2-bedroom flat in a highrise?

You're just broke 95% of the time. Owning you have to save. Renting you don't. You're an anomaly if you rent AND save. That rarely exists.

I would say if you're not handy I probably wouldn't own. I can fix and figure out 99% of things wrong in a house. Owning is the way to go unless your employment has you moving frequently. Even then you could just rent the place out if you bought it and pay down the equity via a renter.

Patrick might be an outlier, but no one rents and then saves. Maybe 1% of them if that. They get a cool pad and are broke.

WookieMan says

HeadSet says

What is a "typical home" versus a "typical apartment?" Are we comparing a 1500 sqft 3-bedroom house on a suburban lot to a 900 sqft 2-bedroom flat in a highrise?

You're just broke 95% of the time. Owning you have to save. Renting you don't. You're an anomaly if you rent AND save. That rarely exists.

I would say if you're not handy I probably wouldn't own. I can fix and figure out 99% of things wrong in a house. Owning is the way to go unless your employment has you moving frequently. Even then you could just rent the place out if you bought it and pay down the equity via a renter.

Patrick might be an outlier, but no one rents and then saves. Maybe 1% of them if that. They get a cool pad and are broke.

Willing to bet most home owners were at one time renters who save. It’s how they got the money for the down payment and closing costs to become a “homeowner” property tax renter.

WookieMan says

Patrick might be an outlier, but no one rents and then saves. Maybe 1% of them if that. They get a cool pad and are broke.

Yeah when I first saw Patrick on 20/20 many years ago talking about the housing bubble I knew he was the rare exception not the norm as anyone in his household income bracket likely is going to own a home, and I said to myself when watching that 20/20 episode he is lucky to have a wife and kids who is okay with renting

Just use the NY Times rent versus buy calculator for different zip codes like renting versus buying a 3 bedroom townhome in Hathaway Townhomes in Panama City Beach.

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AD says

Yeah when I first saw Patrick on 20/20 many years ago talking about the housing bubble

Is this true?

Patrick makes a case as the worlds most interesting man. Are there any links available to that episode?

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-buyers-strike-multiple-cities-2057886

Florida Housing Market Sees 'Buyers on Strike' in Multiple Cities

stfu says

Are there any links available to that episode?

Patrick should just post the video for it somewhere here.

stfu says

AD says

Yeah when I first saw Patrick on 20/20 many years ago talking about the housing bubble

Is this true?

Patrick makes a case as the worlds most interesting man. Are there any links available to that episode?

I saw Patrick on TV and thought I saw it on 20/20. Calculated Risk Blog was out there and gave warning back around 2005; that site had very insightful info from a former mortgage broker Tanta Dungey.

Patrick is my favorite anti-home owner.

I saw it firsthand when living in Alexandria, VA and most of my neighbors were GS-14's from DOJ, DOD, EPA, etc and then all of a sudden townhomes in my HOA are getting bought by Frito Lay truck delivery drivers.

https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/story?id=3731415&page=1

https://news.mortgagecalculator.org/interview-with-patrick-killelea-of-patrick-net-its-a-fantastic-time-to-be-a-renter/

AD says

all of a sudden townhomes in my HOA are getting bought by Frito Lay truck delivery drivers.

This is why why anecdotal is best. If you see something that doesn't look right, it's not right. During the housing bust I didn't see a single train car or semi with lumber on it for 6 months. I got my ass handed to me by not paying attention.

I look at every single detail daily now. Not markets. Stupid things most don't think of. Mail count, as in what marketing material you get. Trains coming through town. Look at trucks. Private jets at a local airport. The information is all there for you. Don't listen to paid media.

I don't think we're in a recession right now. At least not regionally for me. Nationally fine, but they drag down the entire country. There's 200 apartments with framed panels built every 2 days in my town.

Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

AmericanKulak says

Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.

AmericanKulak says

Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

Gotta look at internal migration for the states. FL had a huge influx of Boomers. They're dying. FL built for what was coming in not realizing it was a 10-20 deal to be alive. As they die inventory is gonna go up and prices go down.

No one is 65-70 and wakes up one morning and says they gonna move to IL. So we didn't build for 2 decades. Now we are again. Demographics on population, inventory and probability of work are easy indicators as to where you market it gonna move.

DeSantis should limit the Property Tax reduction only to Homestead Exemption.

Landlords pay the full property tax. If $1000 makes or breaks a landlord from making a profit, they should sell the property.

AmericanKulak says

DeSantis should limit the Property Tax reduction only to Homestead Exemption.

Landlords pay the full property tax. If $1000 makes or breaks a landlord from making a profit, they should sell the property.

Cut the county or if FL has townships like IL does, get rid of all those assessor positions. If you buy a house and it get taxed at 1% or whatever rate and it then follows cost of living rate wise. You cut costs by the thousands of people you let go and can reduce property taxes and simplify the whole thing.

These are all government jobs with healthcare and decent wages in most cases. Outside of extremely rural areas, it's not a volunteer job yet they just sit at a desk and deal with a dozen inquiries or requests a day. It's a do nothing job.

In Florida, the boomer dieoff has begun....

I plotted that column with gnuplot:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14596061/panicked-buyers-bailing-home-contracts-amid-chaotic-markets-plummeting-bank-accounts.html

Spring is typically the best season for the housing market in the US. Not this year.

The housing market is struggling as panicked buyers back out of deals amid widespread financial uncertainty. One homebuyer in Florida, Joel Efosa, tells Daily Mail that he not optimistic about where the US housing market is headed, but he does have a plan - to wait for a market crash to buy.

'I'm waiting on the market to cycle as it did in 2008. This is a perfect storm for an eventual market crash due to this affordability crisis. I will be one of the smart ones waiting on the sideline to buy at the right time, not at the top of the market,' he says.

EBGuy says

In Florida, the boomer dieoff has begun....

But, rate per 100k is lowest it’s been since 2018….

WookieMan says

AmericanKulak says

Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

Gotta look at internal migration for the states. FL had a huge influx of Boomers. They're dying. FL built for what was coming in not realizing it was a 10-20 deal to be alive. As they die inventory is gonna go up and prices go down.

No one is 65-70 and wakes up one morning and says they gonna move to IL. So we didn't build for 2 decades. Now we are again. Demographics on population, inventory and probability of work are easy indicators as to where you market it gonna move.

Will have to see the reason for any recovery of Illinois population such as new manufacturing jobs for young married couple, etc

Maybe there are incentives to move to rural Illinois for economic refugees escaping expensive Florida.



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Patrick says

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-14596061/panicked-buyers-bailing-home-contracts-amid-chaotic-markets-plummeting-bank-accounts.html

Spring is typically the best season for the housing market in the US. Not this year.

The housing market is struggling as panicked buyers back out of deals amid widespread financial uncertainty. One homebuyer in Florida, Joel Efosa, tells Daily Mail that he not optimistic about where the US housing market is headed, but he does have a plan - to wait for a market crash to buy.

'I'm waiting on the market to cycle as it did in 2008. This is a perfect storm for an eventual market crash due to this affordability crisis. I will be one of the smart ones waiting on the sideline to buy at the right time, not at the top of the market,' he says.

Housing peaked around 2006 and then dropped from 2006 to 2011.

Housing peaked around 2022 in the Florida panhandle. So maybe the bottom feeders are looking for a crash 4 years later (in 2026).

A 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 1 car garage townhome in my HOA just sold for around $272,000. It would have easily sold for $330,000 in 2022

and another 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath, 2 car garage townhome in my HOA just sold for $285,000

So its hard to tell if we are going to have a crash like the bottom feeders are hoping for, or is it just going to level off to where it is now (while household income increases 2% annually) which is about 15 to 20% below 2022 peak prices, or all time high prices

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ForcedTQ says

But, rate per 100k is lowest it’s been since 2018….

Florida has had a massive increase in population which is probably making average age there much younger than it used to be.

Misc says

AmericanKulak says
Florida is now #1 among all states for unsold inventory, at nearly 180k houses, highest since 2008.

Second highest is Texas, with "Only" 140k houses.

Nothing a few million more illegals can't cure.

From what I've read online such as Florida Politics page, Florida Today, etc the state is diversifying its economy.

Where I live in the Florida panhandle there is a shipyard that builds Coast Guard ships, off shore vessels, tug boats, ferry boats, and is vying to build Navy ships.

And we have other manufacturing like Berg Pipe, Trane Air Conditioning, an industrial washing machine manufacturer, an outboard motor manufacturing facility, a small pleasure fishing boat manufacturer, etc

They also have a few software companies here as well.

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Patrick says

ForcedTQ says

But, rate per 100k is lowest it’s been since 2018….

Florida has had a massive increase in population which is probably making average age there much younger than it used to be.

The growth in Florida panhandle like Bay County is due to the shipyard growing, Tyndall Air Force Base growing its drone program, and manufacturing base growing as well as they brought in tech companies like accounting software company and they have an incubator called Tech Farms which has created a few startups that local private capital investors (mostly restaurant / bar owners, lawyers and doctors) are funding.

I know this also by following the amount of school bonds issued by county in Florida for new construction as well as expansion of existing schools.

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AD says

Will have to see the reason for any recovery of Illinois population such as new manufacturing jobs for young married couple, etc

It's not about "recovery" here. We stopped building for 20 years. Florida kept building after the crash as northerns move down there. That phase is done. Boomers are retired. The buying is done. FL overbuilt.

That's the FL market and not the overall market. I would not be buying in FL, TX or CA right now.

WookieMan says

That's the FL market and not the overall market.

You never bring up the income tax, sales tax and property tax even in rural Illinois.

Yes, and I noticed they stop construction even in Panama City Beach such as with Hathaway Luxury Apartments (down street from Hathaway Bridge), which they excavated and then stopped work.

And there are boomers who are now 55 years to 65 years old who are getting ready to move to Florida.

And that is why I said Florida has been diversifying its economy so is not only about growth from retirees moving there and tourism, at least I am seeing that firsthand in the Florida panhandle.

And Patrick brings up a good point as I heard the same thing on local NPR news that Florida's population is getting younger.

So they will adjust housing inventory based on population trends in Florida. They overbuild and then you have a 20% price drop and then they start building again.

Glad though we bought in 2016 and not around 2022.

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AD says

And there are boomers who are now 55

Those are GenX, not Boomers.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

And there are boomers who are now 55

Those are GenX, not Boomers.

The boomer ship has sailed at this point. Those that could retire did. The others will just keep working or die. My parents are/were boomers. My mom has already been retired for 10 years. Sold everything off.

Boomers are only a factor in healthcare at this point. Not housing. Younger generation just can’t afford the housing and few are building.

Boomers were 1946 - 1964.

GenX 1965 - 1980

Millennials 1981 - 1996.

WookieMan says

Boomers are only a factor in healthcare at this point. Not housing.

Holding huge amounts of housing is a factor in housing.

MolotovCocktail says

AD says

And there are boomers who are now 55

Those are GenX, not Boomers.

Okay, I meant to say older Gen X types like those 55 and only 2 years until minimum retirement age (MRA) for their government jobs like federal, police, fireman, etc

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I know Bay County, Florida and particularly Panama City Beach government actively tracks demographic trends as far as zoning, housing development, etc

As Larry Sabato says, demographics is destiny.

I always enjoyed listening to Ken Gronbach on Coast to Coast AM. He brings up how Levis Strauss was too set on baby boomers and never accounted for that younger generations may not have as much interest in its jeans.

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MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

Boomers are only a factor in healthcare at this point. Not housing.

Holding huge amounts of housing is a factor in housing.

If they're not selling it doesn't matter. They give it to their kids. No transaction happens and it doesn't move the market. Fact is those that wanted to sell already did. Factor in low interest rates most got, housing isn't moving in a meaningful way up or down.

I was employed in RE and finances for 15+ years. Eman maybe had me on investment property when he was around, but no one here is at my knowledge level. Reading articles and listing to "news" is not actively participating in the trade.

WookieMan says

If they're not selling it doesn't matter

Wrong. It matters. Just like foreigners who own vacant condos in Vancouver and SF impact their housing markets.

MolotovCocktail says

WookieMan says

If they're not selling it doesn't matter

Wrong. It matters. Just like foreigners who own vacant condos in Vancouver and SF impact their housing markets.

Building matters. Not holding. We haven't built in 2 decades in most of the country. There's no inventory. I'm not sure why you can't understand that. I've been saying it for years. Boomers already sold or are holding and very few are building to keep up with population. This is basic 5th grade math.

WookieMan says

Building matters. Not holding.

Yes building matters. But holding doesn't is bullshit. Because that effects the NET new building we require.

Old folk won't move out of their 4 bedroom homes into a smaller abode so a young family can move in.

Then again, you think driving distance somehow means that rural package deliveries outnumbers urban.

MolotovCocktail says

Old folk won't move out of their 4 bedroom homes into a smaller abode so a young family can move in.

They usually never did. My grandparents didn't. All the boomers and their children I'm friends with own the same home from when they were 25-35.

We also lost over a decade of skilled trades. My plumber and electrician friends don't even hang out anymore. They're working 12 hour+ days. Builders can't build if they don't have the labor. Younger generation are not wanting to get into trades doubling down on the shortage.

This is why housing has gotten so high and will continue to in most places.

MolotovCocktail says

Then again, you think driving distance somehow means that rural package deliveries outnumbers urban.

Explain why? I never said delivery quantity. More distance driving to get the same number of packages to an address than urban areas. This is basic common sense. To deliver 600 packages in a rural area you're going to have to drive double the amount at minimum. Don't worry, I've done it and wife was in shipping out of college.

I go off what I know, not what I "think" I know. I don't run my mouth here talking about stuff I haven't experience or know first hand.