patrick.net

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-bank-of-america-downgrade-173236691.html

BofA downgrades three homebuilders as housing downturn accelerates

Rafe Jadrosich at Bank of America Global Research downgraded shares of Lennar (LEN) to Underperform from Neutral, and shares of KB Home (KBH) and Toll Brothers (TOL) to Neutral from Buy, as rising interest rates challenge affordability for buyers.

GNL says

Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

These Realtors need to learn how to use an IPhone. Seriously, unless you are using a drone and photographing the inside of the sewer line exiting the place, $1000 is way too much. They must be fucking stupid.

GNL says

Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

@GNL Could you post a sample of your work?

GNL says

On a side note, Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

Awesome. You ever get into drones? I know we talked privately. I rarely check my burner account for patnet as I didn't trust a lot of people in the past.

WookieMan says

GNL says

On a side note, Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

Awesome. You ever get into drones? I know we talked privately. I rarely check my burner account for patnet as I didn't trust a lot of people in the past.

I live in the DC area (McLean Va.) very little drone access around here so I never got my license. Besides, there's a national company called Dronebase.com. They have a great "little" system going on. There are also too many factors for me to get involved with, it can be difficult because of weather. I let Dronebase have the work.

zzyzzx says

GNL says

Realtors are paying me as much as $1,000 to photograph, video and provide URLs for these listings.

These Realtors need to learn how to use an IPhone. Seriously, unless you are using a drone and photographing the inside of the sewer line exiting the place, $1000 is way too much. They must be fucking stupid.

Come on man, I could go on and on about why a Realtor should not take their own photos let alone use an iPhone. There is an image and perception to using a "Professional" photographer/videographer. Agents aren't trying to be a jack of all trades. I have plenty of clients that used to take their own photos. I'm also able to do things faster and cheaper than my competition. Stuff like virtual staging. Fake furniture can be put in empty homes. Again, editors do this for me and then I mark it up. A competitor of mine charges $60 per photo to do this. I charge $25 and still make $10-$12 per photo. At that price, Realtors are more likely to 1. pay for it and 2. order more photos.

GNL says

Come on man, I could go on and on about why a Realtor should not take their own photos let alone use an iPhone. There is an image and perception to using a "Professional" photographer/videographer. Agents aren't trying to be a jack of all trades. I have plenty of clients that used to take their own photos. I'm also able to do things faster and cheaper than my competition. Stuff like virtual staging. Fake furniture can be put in empty homes. Again, editors do this for me and then I mark it up. A competitor of mine charges $60 per photo to do this. I charge $25 and still make $10-$12 per photo. At that price, Realtors are more likely to 1. pay for it and 2. order more photos.

I completely agree with this. There is a night and day difference between professional photos and someone using a mid level DSLR. It's like magic. Two pictures of the same room at the same angle - the professional photo will look like a castle next to the amateurs hovel. It's especially important in the age of zillow - where pictures do most of the marketing.

stfu says

It's especially important in the age of zillow - where pictures do most of the marketing.

Yep, Zillow wouldn't even exist, imo, if there were no photos. Imagine that, a multi billion dollar company couldn't survive without photos.

If someone could figure out how to control copyrights to all of the photos the industry requires, they'd control the real estate industry.

https://archive.ph/AeQhw

Blackstone Single-Family Landlord to Halt Home Purchases in 38 Cities

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been ordered to reduce the amount of 2nd homes and Investment properties they can finance to 7% of their total production.

Translation - Interest rates and costs are going up nationwide on all 2nd home buyers and investment property buyers.

Opendoor taking a bath on this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8353-Calle-Morelos-92126/home/4529149?600390594=

Booger says

Opendoor taking a bath on this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8353-Calle-Morelos-92126/home/4529149?600390594=

RE investors and home sellers had become addicted to ridiculous annual price appreciation, and so when listing prices are lowered, it still may not mean a loss if the home were owned for a few years, as may be the case with this home. When someone who bought four or five years ago and sells now experiences a negative average annual return, then we're talking. But dropping price from an expected 14% or even 20% YOY price increase, while in the right direction, does not necessarily make for a bad investment overall.

stfu says

I completely agree with this. There is a night and day difference between professional photos and someone using a mid level DSLR.

I've got some great photo gear and even used to develop and edit my own old-school film back in the day. Still, I hire a pro for my real estate and it pays off. In particular for my maui short term vaycay rental where I have maybe 50 bookings a year.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Booger says

Opendoor taking a bath on this one:
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/8353-Calle-Morelos-92126/home/4529149?600390594=

RE investors and home sellers had become addicted to ridiculous annual price appreciation, and so when listing prices are lowered, it still may not mean a loss if the home were owned for a few years, as may be the case with this home. When someone who bought four or five years ago and sells now experiences a negative average annual return, then we're talking. But dropping price from an expected 14% or even 20% YOY price increase, while in the right direction, does not necessarily make for a bad investment overall.

It does for OpenDoor in this case. For others I think a lot of them have HELOCS and are going to walk away when they see their equity evaporate, just like last time.

But people can afford houses:

Power bills are racis'. Expect some Biden bill forgiveness program for POC's.

Al_Sharpton_for_President says

Power bills are racis'. Expect some Biden bill forgiveness program for POC's.

Dems are really making 3rd world in no time.

Booger says

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been ordered to reduce the amount of 2nd homes and Investment properties they can finance to 7% of their total production.

Translation - Interest rates and costs are going up nationwide on all 2nd home buyers and investment property buyers.

Good! I am now scoping out at lakefront properties and waiting for the prices to fall. I will be a cash buyer.

Booger says

2 price drops in 15 days? No patience at all.

zzyzzx says

It does for OpenDoor in this case.

Hope the person who sold to Opendoor for $1+ million in July sent a thank you to its financiers (nothing like some free money subsidized by VCs...)
$400M BlackRock, Healthcare of Ontario Pension Plan (HOOPP)
$300M General Atlantic
$400M SoftBank Vision Fund
$325M Access Technology Ventures, General Atlantic, Lennar Corporation
$210M Norwest Venture Partners

HeadSet says

2 price drops in 15 days? No patience at all.

Got to stay ahead of the market if you want to sell!

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11150999/Is-America-verge-new-housing-collapse-Mountain-West-Sun-Belt-overvalued-72.html

Is America on the verge of a house price collapse? Prices could crash by up to 20% and homes are overvalued by as much as 72%, expert warns
Boise, Idaho; Charlotte, North Carolina and Austin, Texas were the three most overvalued areas in the United States, according to Moody's Analytics
Moody's found that found that 183 of the nation's 413 largest regional housing markets are 'overvalued' by more than 25 percent
If a recession hits, house prices in those 183 regions could plummet by as much as 20 percent, Moody's predicted
If there is not a recession, they will still fall 10-15 percent, the analysts believe - echoing other experts
The housing inventory is at its highest level since April 2009, as sellers struggle to get rid of their property because mortgages have become more expensive
Mortgage rates have nearly doubled since January, rising to 5.13 percent for a 30-year loan as of last week, according to Freddie Mac

Patrick says

Boise, Idaho; Charlotte, North Carolina and Austin, Texas were the three most overvalued areas in the United States, according to Moody's Analytics

This is disgraceful. How dare they take away the 'overvalued areas' crown from Coastal California!

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-a-remarkably-uncertain-time-redfin-ceo-warns-of-rapidly-cooling-housing-market-says-deals-under-contract-are-being-cancelled-11661467568

‘It’s a remarkably uncertain time’: Redfin CEO warns of rapidly cooling housing market — including the cancellation of deals under contract

After a stellar two-year run, the housing market is sputtering as buyers pull back sharply. One real-estate chief said the market is indeed course correcting, and it’s getting hard to make a deal as more contracts falling through.

With the Federal Reserve hiking benchmark interest rates, “demand fell sharply in May and June … [as] buyers were absolutely freaked out,” Redfin RDFN, -5.75% CEO Glenn Kelman told MarketWatch in an interview.

Since then, the housing market has since recovered somewhat, he noted, but “we still will have, even for the deals that are under contract, a very high cancellation rate.”

“It’s just hard to put deals together because the economy is so volatile,” he added. “It’s a remarkably uncertain time.”

Responding to buyers pulling back from the market, sellers have also become increasingly apprehensive about listing.

New listings for homes have fallen 15% in the four weeks ending Aug. 21, a report published Thursday by Redfin said. That is the biggest decline in listings since the start of the pandemic.

That’s pushing down the supply of homes slightly, Redfin said, as the number of for-sale homes dropped 0.6% from the previous four week period.

To find a match quickly, sellers are pricing their homes more aggressively, with the median asking price of newly listed homes falling 5% from the record high set in May.

But not all sellers are able to find eager buyers. In some hot pandemic markets like Boise, Idaho, 70% of the homes for sale had their prices slashed in July, Redfin said.

Builders are also trying harder to entice buyers, Kelman added, and “just as aggressive” with price cuts as existing-home sellers.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/shorting-zillow-is-your-best-bet-in-housing-this-year-11661556266

Shorting Zillow Is Your Best Bet in Housing This Year

Think the real-estate market is in for a price cut? The biggest one could still come to Zillow’s stock

Non-paywall version:
https://archive.ph/MHSpJ

U.S. home seekers are desperately eyeing an expected turn in housing prices, but the best near-term deal in real estate could come from yet another price cut to Zillow’s stock.
Having lost two-thirds of its value over the past 12 months on the heels of its home-flipping implosion, Zillow Group has already fallen to a market capitalization of barely $8 billion, despite the fact that virtually every U.S. adult is still “surfing” its namesake site monthly. Zillow might continue to draw a crowd, but that won’t earn a business model based on transactions much money.

More pain is likely coming. On its second-quarter conference call, even Chief Executive Rich Barton, known for his upbeat, colorful divinations, described the housing market as undergoing a “rebalancing.” In July, sales of new single-family homes fell nearly 30% on an annual basis and nearly 13% versus June. New home inventory has ballooned to the highest level in more than a decade. Zillow now expects transactions to “meaningfully contract” as inventory rises this year.
In perhaps the biggest sign that Zillow isn’t expecting a miraculous recovery in the near-term, Mr. Barton said he launched an employee-retention plan this month, including an off-cycle grant of restricted stock units to employees—ultimately accepting an expected 2% dilution over a few years in an attempt to ensure his top talent doesn’t flee over lower compensation, much of which is often based on equity value.

Yet Wall Street might not have fully digested this warning sign. Analysts’ third-quarter sales estimates for Zillow’s agent ads business (its largest) have come down by an average of just 12% since the company’s second-quarter report. On average, those estimates are still 7% above the midpoint of Zillow’s guidance.
Perhaps investors should take Zillow at its word. You might think fewer potential transactions would have agents upping their ad spending to compete for the smaller number of buyers there. But it seems that isn’t the case: Chief Financial Officer Allen Parker candidly said on the second-quarter call earlier this month that in a quickly declining macroeconomic environment, agent ad spending tends to slow down as buyer demand wanes. Importantly, he also said the slowdown in spending on Zillow’s platform tends to lead the market’s transaction declines, implying Zillow could see outsize weakness sooner rather than later.

Zillow’s agents don’t pay for idle eyeballs; they pay for motivated leads. A decline in their platform spending would suggest that, at least when the chips are down, they don’t feel like they are getting enough of those leads yet from Zillow. That might help to explain why 234 million people surf Zillow’s apps and sites monthly (a figure equivalent to over 90% of U.S. adults), but Zillow monetizes only 3% of U.S. real-estate transactions.
Longer-term, this will probably improve. Its new partnership with automated home-flipping market leader Opendoor means Zillow will collect a referral fee when its users choose to sell directly to Opendoor. But the bigger hope is that those whom Opendoor turns down, or who decide to sell the traditional way, can be fed as quality leads to Zillow’s so-called “Premier Agents.” It also brings to the platform home sellers it can try to monetize on a subsequent home purchase, via adjacent services like mortgages, title and escrow.

Getting into bed with the company that just last year was its rival in iBuying had to be hard for Zillow, given its own failure in that business. So its decision to pursue a partnership despite that underscores Zillow’s belief in the scope of the opportunity on the seller side of transactions for its own platform.
Zillow wants to evolve from America’s favorite pastime to its best-paid quarterback on both sides of the real-estate game. The fact that its mobile app has over three times the number of monthly active users as its closest competitor means that, if anyone can do it, Zillow probably can

St Petersburg 25% property tax increase:



And this is low for Florida.

West side Santa Cruz is particularly crime prone, drug gangs etc., still, prices are high over there. $300k price drop for a more Eastie home that might go for 600-700k in a nice neighborhood in Texas (looks like areas of Texas have inflated, too). There are probably about twice as many listings as there were a month ago, maybe even more.

ZipperTits says

Cap rate is collapsing for San Jose market.

This means an investor would get more ROI just by parking their dough in t-bills than buying and renting housing here.



https://youtu.be/IZ65sM01K6U

Disclosure: All of the above should be outright false according to the PatNet Real Estate 'expert' community.

Isn't this disingenuous? How much of the investor's actual money is tied up in the investment? Not $1.6 million.

I forgot in CalfuckUornia Prop 19 limited the use of prop 13 inheritance. Heirs have to take occupancy within time limits as primary residence, or tax base valuation goes up. I doubt this will stop some from using houses as rentals under the radar, but the idea of leaving inherited houses fallow and empty for generations got harder.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/census-bureau-3-8-million-100000978.html

Census Bureau: 3.8 million renters will likely be evicted in the next two months

ERECTION INTENSIFYING!!!

zzyzzx says

More pain is likely coming. On its second-quarter conference call, even Chief Executive Rich Barton

Oh, lol, I didn't know that former Zillow CEO Spencer Rascoff had been canned:

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/48253-zillow-replaces-ceo-spencer-rascoff-with-original-ceo-rich-barton/

In what can only be categorized as a shocking development, Zillow Group announced Thursday that Spencer Rascoff is stepping down as the company’s CEO, a position he’s held since 2010.

Is Zillow on the ropes?

Does anyone have a C-Suite contact at Zillow?

ZipperTits says

No. It isn't disingenuous because investor lending costs has to be deducted from that income.

True, one way or another, the buyer has to carry the cost of buying the house.

There are two sources of income from owning a house:

1. getting rent (or avoiding paying rent)
2. land appreciation (the building itself always falls in value over time as nature rots it away)

If the land is not appreciating, then the only income is the rent. If that rent does not cover the expenses of owning, then it's a loss.



In this case, the rental income from investing in the house is 26101 / 1619785 = 0.016, which is 1.6%

If the land is not appreciating, it's a bad investment because that's a shitty return.

Income from land appreciation is just parasitical sponging off of the need for others to be in that area for work, as Henry George documents so thoroughly in Progress and Poverty.

Parasitical sponging off of others' wages worked as long as California was growing, but now that it's not, that unearned income from owning land without doing work cannot be counted on. This is very interesting. What happens now?

Banks are going to find that most of their loans are underwater, and people who had "money in the bank" are going to find it hard to get that money back, since the bank literally doesn't have it anymore, having lent it out to borrowers who then lost it.

The Fed will probably once again buy up the bad loans by money-printing, but this is inflationary, and everyone who owns dollars will find that they are footing the bill for banks that made bad loans and borrowers who overpaid.

I suppose that inflation will buoy the house price to some degree, in effect transferring wealth from responsible savers to irresponsible buyers and lenders.

Patrick says

ZipperTits says

No. It isn't disingenuous because investor lending costs has to be deducted from that income.

True, one way or another, the buyer has to carry the cost of buying the house.

There are two sources of income from owning a house:

1. getting rent (or avoiding paying rent)
2. land appreciation (the building itself always falls in value over time as nature rots it away)

If the land is not appreciating, then the only income is the rent. If that rent does not cover the expenses of owning, then it's a loss.



In this case, the rental income from investing in the house is 26101 / 1619785 = 0.016, which is 1.6%

If the land is not appreciating, it's a bad investment because that's a shitty return.

Income from land appreciation...

What seems weird to me, is that, what if I only have $50,000 of my own $$ invested in the house via down-payment? The return is pretty good, no?

GNL says

What seems weird to me, is that, what if I only have $50,000 of my own $$ invested in the house via down-payment? The return is pretty good, no?

You're talking about leverage.

Leverage works both ways. If you bought that house for $1,619,785 and the house goes down in value by 50000 / 1619785 = 3% then your $50,000 is gone.