patrick.net

pudil says

The only way the Fed can make house prices go down is by causing a recession with mass layoffs. Raising the interest rates just slows sales a little as homeowners will just sit in their existing homes with 3% mortgage rates rather then buy a new house and take on a 6%+ loan.

It will correct as the boomers start to die off. They were the largest demographic in the United States until recently. The housing market will move to glut over time. We would have already gone to this if it wasn't for the massive illegal imigration.

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/21/1124272098/home-prices-see-biggest-drop-in-9-years-thanks-to-higher-mortgage-rates

Home prices see biggest drop in 9 years, thanks to higher mortgage rates

Eman says

VA is for veterans right? Unless you’re selling from one veteran to the next, I’m not sure VA would want to assume the loan to someone who is not a veteran, but it’s only my guess.

The VA loan can be assumed by anyone with income qualifications. It is designed to help a veteran sell his house when he relocates. However, VA loan limits may be too low for the California market you guys play in.

WookieMan says

My buddy has bought I think 4 homes VA loan wise.

I presume he assumed loans from veteran sellers, which anyone can do. However, when you do, that takes away the selling veteran's eligibility for another VA loan until that loan is paid off. A veteran can use his eligibility for only have one VA loan at a time (with rare exceptions, like two very low value loans). If a veteran assumes another veteran's VA loan, the buyer can substitute his VA eligibility. That would be a bargaining chip, and works best if the loan is bellow current rates. I myself have assumed VA loans but did not use my own eligibility.

HeadSet says

The VA loan can be assumed by anyone with income qualifications. It is designed to help a veteran sell his house when he relocates. However, VA loan limits may be too low for the California market you guys play in.

Believe they adjust based on location like FHA. Either way you could still assume it and find a lender okay being a 2nd lien. Hard, but not impossible.

If you HAVE to get something, there's a way. The home I'm sitting in was purchased with no means of being able to buy it. I found a way after having the all cash offer accepted. Margin loan from the MIL that we paid the interest on for about 18 months $220/mo. Refi'd and we paid her back. Kind of wish we kept it going and paid off principle as we had the cash. Monthly nut PITI was maybe $500. Needed to pay off bills though from updates/repairs otherwise we'd have been paying 22% interest on CC's for work done. $1,200/mo still ain't bad all in for my house with an in ground pool. Fenced yard. Wife has a green thumb and I keep the lawn looking good. People ask to buy our home out of no where.

HeadSet says

I presume he assumed loans from veteran sellers

He could own 2 at a time. Not sure if the rules have changed. Rent one out and live in the other (technically). Both have to be primary at first for purchase and then move to the next. He just bought a house out in Montana (he lives there) that I crashed a week or so ago. He's down to one house now. But yeah, for a middle class bachelor he's done decent on housing tax free cap gains.

zzyzzx says

Resubmit next week, 10k less, and add a line at the end stating all rejections must be signed as proof the sellers were made aware of it.

It's a nice thought, but the whole point of being a realtor is to block all direct communication between buyer and seller. That's so that the realtor can "lose" bids that don't benefit him to the maximum amount personally.

Every buyer should always send a copy of his bid to the owners directly, though I'm sure buyer's agents have rules against that as well.

Added image to original post to make it easier to see in thread lists.

Patrick says

the whole point of being a realtor

Ahem, bro, it's ®ealtor, - got it?

https://www.realestateconsulting.com/speedy-escape-from-housing-market-slump-unlikely/

And that is what the $600,000 home is now worth.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/xl4wq4/update_watched_a_property_bread_crumb_price_drops/

‘The housing market may have to go through a correction’: Mortgage rates hit 6.29%, Freddie Mac says

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c9971b8a-06fe-307a-8997-1c38e2e3fd90/%E2%80%98the-housing-market-may-have.html

Anyone that has to sell at inflated prices because they bought their home recently, then I hope they have an assumable mortgage at a rate less than 4%.

Than it may not be painful for them. But how much pain is this housing crash really going to be ?

Most people who will sell likely have no to very little of a mortgage balance or they still have a significant amount of equity even with a 30% drop in prices from early 2022 peak.

It is not as if subprime mortgages are a risk especially relative to 2007.

.

DJIA down almost 3 percent today In keeping with the alleged Shemitah? Looks like the Hummer fleet is stripping fast.

DJIA bumped back up to 2 percent down. Back to about April 2020 levels minus the purchasing losses of inflation (20 percent?) since then?

If we get 50 percent inflation next year, which is quite possible, then purchasing power is declining rapidly, no matter what the ostensible bolus.

Ceffer says

DJIA down almost 3 percent today

Ceffer says

DJIA bumped back up to 2 percent down.

Then down for the day at -1.6%.

Looks like the PPT was busy late in the day.

S&P 500 is about 9% above February 2020 levels. In real or inflation-adjusted terms, it is below February 2020 levels.

So the Fed got what it wanted as far as COVID-pandemic asset gains being wiped out.

Housing naturally takes longer to respond but I would not be surprised if it drops to mid 2021 levels within the next 2 years.

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BayArea says

Patrick says

zzyzzx says

Looks like money laundering.

Redfin doesn’t show that sale price. Maybe just a print error?

Error with "7". house wasn't listed for sale. Last sold for 307,000 1.5 year ago.

One thing I remember in San Diego is that the most desirable areas ALWAYS had demand, even in a job loss recession. Prices dipped somewhat but rich people, in general, always have cash and aren't as impacted by the economy. Everyone has to live somewhere even in economic disaster.

The coming contraction will be painful for many.

porkchopexpress says

The coming contraction will be painful for many.

Having worked in RE during the housing crisis. It's not painful. People need to realize you're not going to jail for not paying debt, but I think a lot of people believe that's a consequence. Even intelligent people. It's not YOUR fault that interest rates or prices got insane. Walk away. Besides credit score damage, there's nothing else. At least on a primary home. Even investments. You take the ding. 7 years later it's gone completely no matter what. AND you could still get financing for a home within 3-4 years or get creative.

My advice is take the emotion out of it. You think the banks have emotion about it? Hells no. They know they're raping 90% of their customers. If you're the 10% that screws them that's called business.

A new weird in the housing market.

“Since the vast majority of homeowners who might consider moving have a mortgage rate far below current levels, there’s very little new supply hitting the market.”

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-welcome-to-the-new-weird/?inquirySource=365

This may explain why…

https://www.redfin.com/news/homeowners-locked-into-low-mortgage-rates/

Need job losses for more people to sell.

porkchopexpress says

One thing I remember in San Diego is that the most desirable areas ALWAYS had demand, even in a job loss recession. Prices dipped somewhat but rich people, in general, always have cash and aren't as impacted by the economy. Everyone has to live somewhere even in economic disaster.

The coming contraction will be painful for many.

What portion of their water comes from the Colorado River these days?