patrick.net

https://www.npr.org/2022/09/21/1124272098/home-prices-see-biggest-drop-in-9-years-thanks-to-higher-mortgage-rates

Home prices see biggest drop in 9 years, thanks to higher mortgage rates

Eman says

VA is for veterans right? Unless you’re selling from one veteran to the next, I’m not sure VA would want to assume the loan to someone who is not a veteran, but it’s only my guess.

The VA loan can be assumed by anyone with income qualifications. It is designed to help a veteran sell his house when he relocates. However, VA loan limits may be too low for the California market you guys play in.

WookieMan says

My buddy has bought I think 4 homes VA loan wise.

I presume he assumed loans from veteran sellers, which anyone can do. However, when you do, that takes away the selling veteran's eligibility for another VA loan until that loan is paid off. A veteran can use his eligibility for only have one VA loan at a time (with rare exceptions, like two very low value loans). If a veteran assumes another veteran's VA loan, the buyer can substitute his VA eligibility. That would be a bargaining chip, and works best if the loan is bellow current rates. I myself have assumed VA loans but did not use my own eligibility.

HeadSet says

The VA loan can be assumed by anyone with income qualifications. It is designed to help a veteran sell his house when he relocates. However, VA loan limits may be too low for the California market you guys play in.

Believe they adjust based on location like FHA. Either way you could still assume it and find a lender okay being a 2nd lien. Hard, but not impossible.

If you HAVE to get something, there's a way. The home I'm sitting in was purchased with no means of being able to buy it. I found a way after having the all cash offer accepted. Margin loan from the MIL that we paid the interest on for about 18 months $220/mo. Refi'd and we paid her back. Kind of wish we kept it going and paid off principle as we had the cash. Monthly nut PITI was maybe $500. Needed to pay off bills though from updates/repairs otherwise we'd have been paying 22% interest on CC's for work done. $1,200/mo still ain't bad all in for my house with an in ground pool. Fenced yard. Wife has a green thumb and I keep the lawn looking good. People ask to buy our home out of no where.

HeadSet says

I presume he assumed loans from veteran sellers

He could own 2 at a time. Not sure if the rules have changed. Rent one out and live in the other (technically). Both have to be primary at first for purchase and then move to the next. He just bought a house out in Montana (he lives there) that I crashed a week or so ago. He's down to one house now. But yeah, for a middle class bachelor he's done decent on housing tax free cap gains.

zzyzzx says

Resubmit next week, 10k less, and add a line at the end stating all rejections must be signed as proof the sellers were made aware of it.

It's a nice thought, but the whole point of being a realtor is to block all direct communication between buyer and seller. That's so that the realtor can "lose" bids that don't benefit him to the maximum amount personally.

Every buyer should always send a copy of his bid to the owners directly, though I'm sure buyer's agents have rules against that as well.

Added image to original post to make it easier to see in thread lists.

Patrick says

the whole point of being a realtor

Ahem, bro, it's ®ealtor, - got it?

https://www.realestateconsulting.com/speedy-escape-from-housing-market-slump-unlikely/

And that is what the $600,000 home is now worth.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/xl4wq4/update_watched_a_property_bread_crumb_price_drops/

‘The housing market may have to go through a correction’: Mortgage rates hit 6.29%, Freddie Mac says

https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c9971b8a-06fe-307a-8997-1c38e2e3fd90/%E2%80%98the-housing-market-may-have.html

Anyone that has to sell at inflated prices because they bought their home recently, then I hope they have an assumable mortgage at a rate less than 4%.

Than it may not be painful for them. But how much pain is this housing crash really going to be ?

Most people who will sell likely have no to very little of a mortgage balance or they still have a significant amount of equity even with a 30% drop in prices from early 2022 peak.

It is not as if subprime mortgages are a risk especially relative to 2007.

.

DJIA down almost 3 percent today In keeping with the alleged Shemitah? Looks like the Hummer fleet is stripping fast.

DJIA bumped back up to 2 percent down. Back to about April 2020 levels minus the purchasing losses of inflation (20 percent?) since then?

If we get 50 percent inflation next year, which is quite possible, then purchasing power is declining rapidly, no matter what the ostensible bolus.

Ceffer says

DJIA down almost 3 percent today

Ceffer says

DJIA bumped back up to 2 percent down.

Then down for the day at -1.6%.

Looks like the PPT was busy late in the day.

S&P 500 is about 9% above February 2020 levels. In real or inflation-adjusted terms, it is below February 2020 levels.

So the Fed got what it wanted as far as COVID-pandemic asset gains being wiped out.

Housing naturally takes longer to respond but I would not be surprised if it drops to mid 2021 levels within the next 2 years.

.

BayArea says

Patrick says

zzyzzx says

Looks like money laundering.

Redfin doesn’t show that sale price. Maybe just a print error?

Error with "7". house wasn't listed for sale. Last sold for 307,000 1.5 year ago.

One thing I remember in San Diego is that the most desirable areas ALWAYS had demand, even in a job loss recession. Prices dipped somewhat but rich people, in general, always have cash and aren't as impacted by the economy. Everyone has to live somewhere even in economic disaster.

The coming contraction will be painful for many.

porkchopexpress says

The coming contraction will be painful for many.

Having worked in RE during the housing crisis. It's not painful. People need to realize you're not going to jail for not paying debt, but I think a lot of people believe that's a consequence. Even intelligent people. It's not YOUR fault that interest rates or prices got insane. Walk away. Besides credit score damage, there's nothing else. At least on a primary home. Even investments. You take the ding. 7 years later it's gone completely no matter what. AND you could still get financing for a home within 3-4 years or get creative.

My advice is take the emotion out of it. You think the banks have emotion about it? Hells no. They know they're raping 90% of their customers. If you're the 10% that screws them that's called business.

A new weird in the housing market.

“Since the vast majority of homeowners who might consider moving have a mortgage rate far below current levels, there’s very little new supply hitting the market.”

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-welcome-to-the-new-weird/?inquirySource=365

This may explain why…

https://www.redfin.com/news/homeowners-locked-into-low-mortgage-rates/

Need job losses for more people to sell.

porkchopexpress says

One thing I remember in San Diego is that the most desirable areas ALWAYS had demand, even in a job loss recession. Prices dipped somewhat but rich people, in general, always have cash and aren't as impacted by the economy. Everyone has to live somewhere even in economic disaster.

The coming contraction will be painful for many.

What portion of their water comes from the Colorado River these days?

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/pandemics-real-estate-jobs-boom-turning-bust-layoffs-hit-rcna48811

The pandemic's real estate jobs boom is turning into a bust as layoffs hit

As housing sales slow amid higher interest rates, thousands of workers who found jobs in the booming housing market of the pandemic are now facing widespread layoffs with steeper cuts expected ahead.

Some of the biggest players in the real estate industry, including RE/MAX, Redfin and Wells Fargo, have announced layoffs in recent months totaling thousands of jobs. Industry analysts are projecting the cuts could eventually be on par with what was seen during the housing crash of 2008.

According to the National Association of Realtors, the number of homes being sold in the U.S. fell nearly 20% between August 2021 and August 2022 in large part because of the Federal Reserve's decision to begin raising interest rates in March in an effort to bring down decades-high inflation. As a result, home mortgage interest rates have doubled this year, pricing an increasing number of buyers out of the market.

“It’s gonna be tough, layoffs are a common occurrence right now,” said Linda McCoy, head of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers, who has been in the mortgage industry for 30 years. “It’s scary, because you just don’t know where or when it’s going to stop.”

It’s a stark reversal from where the housing-related job market has been over the past two years. As more people found themselves working from home and interest rates hit record lows, a surge of buyers entered the market looking for new homes. Existing home sales last year reached their highest level since 2006.

The demand for housing, and the jobs that were created, provided a bright spot in a bleak job market for workers during the first two years of the pandemic. Many of them were looking to pivot from industries hit hard by the pandemic, such as hospitality, food service, health care and education, according to industry analysts.

Over that period, 200,000 people became real estate agents, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.

In addition to the demand for houses, many homeowners looked to refinance their mortgages. Mortgage firms rapidly started hiring workers, some straight out of college or with little experience, said McCoy.

The number of people employed as loan originators or processors grew 31% from the start of 2020 to the end of 2021, according to data from SimpleNexus.

Some companies offered five-figure bonuses to new hires and thousands of dollars a month in bonus pay, said Myiesha Lacy, who has worked in the real estate finance industry for 20 years and was recently laid off from her job at Sprout Mortgage when it went out of business.

While the overall job market remains strong with the economy adding 315,000 jobs in August, industry analysts warn the trends in the housing sector could have a wider ripple effect as fewer people buying homes means cuts to spending in other areas, such as appliances, furniture and renovations.

“The housing market is in a sense holding back the economic growth or even pushing the overall economy slightly negative, and it has a ripple effect,” said Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors.

Workers in the mortgage industry have been among the hardest hit as demand for refinancing and home sales tumble. More than three dozen companies in the mortgage sector have shut down, been acquired or announced job cuts in the past six months, eliminating thousands of jobs, according to a tally by NBC News.