patrick.net

My friend in Fort Myers Fl. is trying to get the state to raise his house. He's been flooded 3 times and has given up repairing it until his house gets raised. Evidently Florida has a program called Raise Florida that will pay 75% of the cost to put your house on stilts if you qualify.

GNL says

My friend in Fort Myers Fl. is trying to get the state to raise his house. He's been flooded 3 times and has given up repairing it until his house gets raised. Evidently Florida has a program called Raise Florida that will pay 75% of the cost to put your house on stilts if you qualify.

Here is a radical idea: ppl shouldn't build in storm/flood zones, period. Or if they do, they pay 100% for it all. If they need stilts, they pay for that too. And of they can get a lender stupid enough to finance that, no bailouts for them either.

Moral Hazard 101.

And yes: Same thing applies to CA when the next 8.x Big One hits there, too.

It doesn't matter if they raise the houses on pilings. The storms will blow the windows out and drench them anyway and wreck just about everything inside. A lot of the damage comes from rapidly fluctuating high pressures that bend the house until it breaks and/or blows the roof off. There is no safe haven except a building that is more or less windowless concrete. If you are in an area that is merely flooded, the stilts will help.

In the areas around New Orleans, they just expect that their bayou vacation houses on stilts will get blown out periodically and have to be rebuilt and they build them to suit.

AmericanKulak says

Florida not only has a Condo problem, but also a huge apartment/townhouse explosion the past few years with 100k's of units added from Ocala to Orlando, St. Petersburg to Pt St Lucie

vacation rental in Panama City Beach, figure worst case is 6% annual ROI based on $20K annual profit and $330K purchase price (includes closing costs, renovation costs, etc)

Ceffer says

The storms will blow the windows out and drench them anyway and wreck just about everything inside.

Our townhome is about 2 miles from the beach and the wind gusts were 205 mph for Hurricane Michael and sustained wind was around 160 mph. There was no damage to our home other than a broken seal for the back french doors.

I agree as its the storm surge from a nearby body of water like the Gulf of America or Atlantic Ocean which can cause the damage not just from flooding but the force of water against the building structures.

Storm surge damage is only covered by flood insurance not HO3 insurance.

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AD says

Our townhome is about 2 miles from the beach

That could make a difference depending. My wife is from New Orleans and her relatives with stilted houses (mostly hunting and fishing vacation places) closer to the Gulf were all blown through after Katarina. They don't even bother boarding them up, they even open the windows. They just plan to rebuild and hope the roof holds up. There were vids of a bunch of these stilted homes blown through.

Even the town of Slidell closer the central tract of the hurricane was over 80 percent destroyed.

AD says

vacation rental in Panama City Beach, figure worst case is 6% annual ROI based on $20K annual profit and $330K purchase price (includes closing costs, renovation costs, etc)

We visited Panama City about 10 years ago with the intent of purchasing a vacation condo. We never pulled the trigger because, while the purchase prices were reasonable, the condo assc. fees ranged anywhere from $600 to $1,000 per month.

AD says

vacation rental in Panama City Beach, figure worst case is 6% annual ROI based on $20K annual profit and $330K purchase price (includes closing costs, renovation costs, etc)

https://www.trulia.com/home/164-robin-ln-panama-city-beach-fl-32407-42798385
Looks like somebody from out of state brought past the peak of COVID and trying to get out with a profit. Although it looks like they tried to AirBNB it.

This 1000 sq ft place sold for $202k just before COVID in 2020, brought at the end of COVID for $300k. It went up a lot in just over 5 years, eh? If it's such a good rental, why are they running away so fast?

The property tax is probably ~$2500, certainly not less than $2100. Insurance gotta be $6000, minimum.
https://clovered.com/homeowners-insurance/florida/panama-city-beach/

Very stubborn seller about to get Schlonged by the 10-15 year cyclical Florida Boom and Bust market. He lowered his price $15k in September and just relisted after the Winter Season, good luck with that buddy.

What incentive rates of 4-5% is this seller offering ;) ?

stfu says

We visited Panama City about 10 years ago with the intent of purchasing a vacation condo. We never pulled the trigger because, while the purchase prices were reasonable, the condo assc. fees ranged anywhere from $600 to $1,000 per month.

Which reminds me, this townhouse has an HOA of $375.

So looks like minimum $13,000/year just in tax, insurance, and HOA. Add a mortgage and a thousand or so for wear & tear (generous for a 40 year old property, built 1985) it's about $40k/year. I'm being very generous with the mortgage and assuming a whopper of a down payment.

Maybe an AirBNB rule change? Or the AirBNB bust?

$3,300/month for this…?

https://www.trulia.com/home/164-robin-ln-panama-city-beach-fl-32407-42798385

https://www.fastcompany.com/91304658/housing-market-florida-texas-are-so-choppy-that-lennars-incentives-hit-highest-since-2009

Housing markets in Florida and Texas are so weak that builder Lennar spent the most on buyer incentives since 2009

America’s second-largest homebuilder Lennar spent the equivalent of 13% of home sales on buyer incentives last quarter. For a $400,000 home, that translates to $52,000 in incentives.

AD says

not sure if this include paying for the land

No square footage listed?

Lots of overlap between those squares. And the Clean up is bullshit. Every trade is required to clean up after themselves.
Not going to pay 27K to clean up. At most the GC has about 4 trailer loads of debris during the course of construction. No where near 27K. As they have cheap labor to pick it up and put it on the trailer, and they own the trailer, and the dump fee is a few hundred per load.

Interior, framing and exterior is double dipping between tiers.
Most electrical bids includes rough in, and finishing, and installing the lights.

What in the fuck is "Other" for 8K. The prices listed on those tiers are already on the high end, and if those were the costs, they already included all of the change orders.

You should be able to get a 1700 to 2000 sqft single story house up on an existing lot, for $175 to $225.
That's without the most premium fixtures, roofing materials, flooring you can find.
Also it's a shame but we're not building houses for your average American home owner, most every house is a 2 story mini mansion in a gated community, with the most premium materials you can find. You would have to be a USAID grifter to afford.

KB Home Stock Slides After Earnings Miss. Sales Were ‘Muted,’ CEO Says.

Shares of Los Angeles-based home builder KB Home were sliding after the company reported earnings and revenue that missed consensus expectations amid a “muted” start to the spring selling season.

KB Home reported diluted first-quarter earnings of $1.49 a share on $1.39 billion in revenue, the home builder said after the market closed Monday. Consensus estimates compiled by FactSet called for $1.57 a share on about $1.5 billion in revenue.

The stock was down 4.1% late Tuesday morning after closing up 3.4% on Monday. It was on pace for its lowest close since February 2024, and largest percent decrease since this past February, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

“Consumers are working through affordability concerns and uncertainties related to macroeconomic and geopolitical issues, which are causing them to move slowly in their home buying decisions,” KB Home CEO Jeffrey Mezger said in a statement. “Demand at the start of this spring’s selling season was more muted than what we have seen historically, despite a healthy level of traffic in our communities.”

The company in February “took steps to reposition our communities to offer the most compelling value, and buyers responded favorably to these adjustments,” he added. “Although we missed our sales goals for the first quarter, we are encouraged by the significant improvement in weekly sales and normalizing absorption pace over the last five weeks.”

That strategy shift started with cutting back on commissions in favor of advertising lower prices, Mezger said on a conference call. “If there were communities not selling […], we took additional steps to pull the price down further as needed.” The company lowered its base price in about half of its communities, Chief Operating Officer Robert McGibney added.

The company lowered its full-year guidance to call for housing revenue in a range from $6.6 billion to $7 billion, down from prior guidance calling for a range from $7 billion to $7.5 billion. It also lowered its expectations for average selling price and narrowed its margin expectations.

The guidance reduction is “primarily to reflect the lower level of net orders we generated in the first quarter,” Mezger said. KB Home reported 2,772 net orders, down about 17% from one year ago and below the 3,242 consensus expected.

KB Home isn’t the only builder having a slow start to spring. Lennar is one of the nation’s largest home builders, last week offered guidance for a narrower-than-expected home building margin as it expects to continue to offer incentives to drive sales volume amid affordability pressures.

Their houses are trash. This shouldn’t be a surprise.

I might buy 2 more lots in my subdivision to be away from the cardboard boxes. Just have to pay for the sidewalks.

https://www.newsweek.com/florida-housing-market-echoes-great-recession-real-estate-analyst-2050648

Home sellers in Southwest Florida are slashing their asking prices at rates unseen since the years that followed the economic downturn of late 2007 to 2009, according to real estate professor Shelton Weeks.

"It's probably been over a decade since we've seen a situation like this," Weeks, who teaches at Florida Gulf Coast University, told Florida-based WINK News. "You know, you have to get back to the recovery days coming out of the Great Recession in terms of price discounts and stuff we're seeing in the market."

Newsweek contacted Weeks for comment by email on Wednesday morning.

Zillow Home Value Index for Panama City Beach is down about 9% from all time high set in August 2022 : https://www.zillow.com/home-values/6391/panama-city-beach-fl/

Zillow rent index is warm (it was "hot" a month ago): https://www.zillow.com/rental-manager/market-trends/panama-city-beach-fl/

..............................................................................................................................................................

https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-prices-selling-spring-c3373ef8

"Delistings increased last December and continue to act as a safety valve in the housing market. In February, 9% of home listings were taken down after they failed to find a buyer, based on CoreLogic data. Last year, the delisting rate for February was just 3.2%, in line with the five-year average.

Because of regional variations that have opened up in the U.S. housing market, discounts are needed to tempt buyers in some parts of the country but not in others.

The number of homes for sale is back above prepandemic inventory levels—or very close—in 10 states, Realtor.com data shows. Supply is especially high in Florida, Colorado, Texas and Utah. Meanwhile, bidding wars are still common in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, which are chronically short of housing. "

.

It is hard to believe that only 2% of mortgages are underwater based on the below website.

https://www.lendingtree.com/home/mortgage/u-s-mortgage-market-statistics

Also there was little growth in mortgage accounts since 2013, with only 3.5 million added considering the USA population now is around 330 million.

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Most people locked in cheap fixed rates and since then new home sales have been slow, so not a lot of risky arm or high rate mortgage holders.

mell says

Most people locked in cheap fixed rates and since then new home sales have been slow, so not a lot of risky arm or high rate mortgage holders.

I figure 3.21 million mortgage accounts generated from the end of 2021 to the end of 2023.

I estimate at least 2.5 million out of the 3.21 million are underwater with their mortgages, so that is 2.5 million out of currently 85.10 million accounts, hence its about 2.94%.

Compare this to 25% of mortgages being underwater in 2010.

https://money.cnn.com/2010/02/23/real_estate/underwater_rates_rise/?section=money_latest

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AmericanKulak says

https://www.trulia.com/home/164-robin-ln-panama-city-beach-fl-32407-42798385
Looks like somebody from out of state brought past the peak of COVID and trying to get out with a profit. Although it looks like they tried to AirBNB it.

This 1000 sq ft place sold for $202k just before COVID in 2020, brought at the end of COVID for $300k. It went up a lot in just over 5 years, eh? If it's such a good rental, why are they running away so fast?

The property tax is probably ~$2500, certainly not less than $2100. Insurance gotta be $6000, minimum.
https://clovered.com/homeowners-insurance/florida/panama-city-beach/

Here are my estimates of the annual costs:
1. Property Tax : $2700
2. Property Insurance HO-6: $1500 (the HOA covers the master insurance policy)
3. HOA regular assessment: $4488 (covers master insurance, roof and exterior maintenance, landscaping, etc)
4. Maintenance and Repair: $1500 (0.5% of a replacement value of $300,000)
5. Rental Property Manager: $2000 (they manage the vacation rental unit like clean the unit, handle the bookings, etc)

annual total expenses: $9,488 (round up to $10,000)

Here is my estimate on revenue:
1. Assume 180 days booked at a generous or very conservative rate of $200 a day , which is $36,000

Net income: $26,000

Assume they purchase the home with cash with total cost (includes closing cost) for $350,000

Hence the annual ROI is $26,000 / $350,000 x 100% or 7.4%

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AD says

Assume they purchase the home with cash with total cost (includes closing cost) for $350,000

To be more accurate, you may want to deduct from the ROI the lost interest of using that cash. At 4.5% that would be about $16k, so the actual ROI would be $10,000 over what you would get by leaving the money in a one year CD.

HeadSet says

AD says
Assume they purchase the home with cash with total cost (includes closing cost) for $350,000

To be more accurate, you may want to deduct from the ROI the lost interest of using that cash. At 4.5% that would be about $16k, so the actual ROI would be $10,000 over what you would get by leaving the money in a one year CD.

My estimate was very conservative, so the 7.4% annual ROI is the worst expected return. Also it does not take into account the annual appreciation of the property.

But I agree that CD's now are an attractive asset class with an annual real or inflation-adjusted return of about 1.75%

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And this is just 2023 data...

https://t.co/tShhmGDN2S

DeportLibtards says

https://t.co/tShhmGDN2S

Remnants of Biden Admin economy as I recall before the 2024 election that they were extending COVID forbearance policies for FHA mortgages.

By the way, this is now on rental market: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1741-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/121153821_zpid/

It was foreclosed on and was bought for around $217K by an Indian-American investor out of Boulder, Colorado, and then turned around or flipped on the marketplace at $330K.

It has not sold and is now a rental, which I think they could easily rent it for $2300.

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AD says

HeadSet says

AD says
Assume they purchase the home with cash with total cost (includes closing cost) for $350,000

To be more accurate, you may want to deduct from the ROI the lost interest of using that cash. At 4.5% that would be about $16k, so the actual ROI would be $10,000 over what you would get by leaving the money in a one year CD.

My estimate was very conservative, so the 7.4% annual ROI is the worst expected return. Also it does not take into account the annual appreciation of the property.

But I agree that CD's now are an attractive asset class with an annual real or inflation-adjusted return of about 1.75%

.

appreciation? we don’t got that here lol. we only got weather destroying it.

DeportLibtards says

Don't know their practices in regards to mortgages, but wouldn't touch a Pulte shit hole house. By default your house is worth shit, so you're upside down anyway when you buy.

DeportLibtards says

And this is just 2023 data...

Well in Feb 2025 the top 10% of USA households accounted for 50% of consumer spending. So this is just a continuation of what President Bill Clinton started when signing free trade agreements and "banking reforms.

https://www.marketplace.org/2025/02/24/higher-income-americans-drive-bigger-share-of-consumer-spending/#:~:text=Namely%2C%20pretty%20well%2Doff%20people,collecting%20data%20on%20this%20stuff.

deflation will never happen, america runs on inflation and fiat

FortwayeAsFuckJoeBiden says

deflation will never happen

I'm old enough to remember certain someone promising to bring prices down on the day one of his presidency.

WookieMan says

Don't know their practices in regards to mortgages, but wouldn't touch a Pulte shit hole house.

They are talking about Bill Pulte, Trump's new Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Not the house building firm.

DeportLibtards says

Bill Pulte

Yep, he's the grandson of the founder of Pulte Homes.

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AD says

2. Property Insurance HO-6: $1500 (the HOA covers the master insurance policy)

$6000 is middling for a $300k+ Florida dwelling. The Panhandle gets hit often by hurricanes. HOAs do NOT cover damage to townhouses, unless explicitly stated. The shared areas like the clubhouse or parking lot, sure. Just like in any single family community with an HOA.

For a multistory condo, damage to the exterior structure would be covered because the structure itself is shared, but any flood damage inside a first floor condo destroying the inside would not.

AD says

Here is my estimate on revenue:
1. Assume 180 days booked at a generous or very conservative rate of $200 a day , which is $36,000

Does the HOA allow short term rentals? And there's the AirBNB bust generally.

It's now very common for HOAs to limit rentals to a minimum of a month to protect long term residents from party kids and loud drunks. Not including any city/county regs

The average monthly rent in Panama City Beach is under $1700
https://www.rentcafe.com/average-rent-market-trends/us/fl/panama-city-beach/

The other big FUN coming up is going to be cars.

It's gonna be a wild year, and expect Trump to be blamed for all of Biden's spendthrift ways and the Feds pumping by printer.

AmericanKulak says

Does the HOA allow short term rentals? And there's the AirBNB bust generally.

A vast majority of HOAs within 2 miles of the beach in Panama City Beach allow vacation rentals.

Also I stated a cheap rate of $200 a night for the 2 bedroom unit but that does not include the usual $30 a night cleaning fee with a 3 night minimum. That goes to the management company who pays its cleaners $17/hour.

DeportLibtards says

WookieMan says

Don't know their practices in regards to mortgages, but wouldn't touch a Pulte shit hole house.

They are talking about Bill Pulte, Trump's new Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Not the house building firm.

Well that's scary. Whether he's involved with the construction of homes or someone else in the firm, they build shit that 20% of people will default when they have to replace their windows in 3-5 years and other major items not under warranty anymore. Then they start missing payments after a $20k bill or rack up debt to finance the repairs. Likely house poor.

I dislike bankers, but someone from a building background at minimum should not be in charge of any finance department. Recipe for disaster.

AmericanKulak says

The Panhandle gets hit often by hurricanes.

Reason enough not to live there, much less pay outrageous amounts to live there! The only area there where I would even consider would be close to the AL border.