Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.
I am looking at rent and home prices in the Florida panhandle within 10 miles of the beach. They have gone up about 30% over the last 2 years. They need to go down to spring 2020 levels to make them affordable for the working class. They likely will over correct and drop to 2018 levels.
Timing is everything. For my shack, selling in 2006 and buying back in 2012 would have been a bad move... transaction costs, reset Prop 13 taxes, need to rent for 6 years, and the small problem of selling at $900k and buying back at $1MM.
Yes, I have followed the Warren Buffet valuation for stocks. Market cap needs to go down more relative to GDP. A lot of the run up is from the significant increase in demand, thanks to monetary and fiscal policies.
The left wing media has been reporting about this. Just look at Tyson Foods stock price and PE ratio.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.