patrick.net

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/y5x65t/i_bid_on_a_850k_original_list_price_in_nw_austin/

I bid on a $850K original list price in NW Austin and after a few back and forth, it got accepted for $750K

They probably could have waited and paid less.

WookieMan says

This is probably a top 5 reason I got out of RE. Humans are selfish as fuck. Set times you're available to show your home. You can easily have the Realtor put that in the MLS. Not complicated. Cancelled showings happen with EVERY listing. You're not special as the homeowner and being upset that you have to take your kids to the park or go have a beer at your local establishment is what you do. Stop being pussies.

Also make it enticing as far as have very good photos and video of each room and space of the house, including the exterior, front yard and back yard. Take video of the appliances running such as the dishwasher. Show a thermometer reading of the hot water coming from a bathroom sink.

I put a lot of info out there on Ebay when I sold my car. I posted videos of the dashboard when the car was running. I posted videos and photos of the engine and tires (including detail views of the tire treads).

I posted a video of the a/c running and a thermometer to show the a/c cools the inside. I posted photos of maintenance receipts like for oil changes, etc. I sold it for the price I wanted before the pandemic. I posted a link to a cloud link like Google Drive that had all the videos and photos of the receipts.

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zzyzzx says

zzyzzx, who bought this home ? they are going to lose a lot of money. I would appreciate it 6% for 3 years as far as figure out near-bottom price.

(1.06)^3 x $313,500 = $373,383

Maybe $400,000 is bottom price.

.

https://thegoodcitizen.substack.com/p/greatest-american-bank

When they bailed out the banks responsible for the mess with a few trillion dollars and nobody went to jail, and there were no riots, and the Federal Reserve building still stood and all the bank CEOs showed up to the White House to have a beer with Obama who did some mild finger waving, I knew without a shred of doubt that we were, and still are watching a late stage failing empire.

The whole mortgage experience did produce a screenplay and a one-act stage play called Option ARM, named after the insane mortgage product that allowed borrowers to choose what payment option they wanted to make each month including one with negative amortization.

It may read like a farce, but it’s based on true events and real people, including one who served six years in prison for mortgage fraud.

The short play appears as text below. If you prefer to read it as a PDF you can download this file.

We paid the tax on our 50+ y/o 1150 sq ft sh*tbox in an undesirable part of SJ: $3000 ($6000 annual) on an assessed value of $339k.

®ealtors who tell you the Property Tax Rate is 1%, while not lying, are disingenuous. The BASE rate is 1.0%. But, various and sundry Junk Fees are piled on.

As a courtesy to we Tax Donkeys, for the first time that I noticed the Tax Collector broke out the various and sundry Junk Fees by additional assessments (percentage of assessed value) and parcel taxes (fixed amount regardless of the assessed value).

There's 8 additional line items below the top line "1% MAXIMUM LEVY", for a total overall rate of 1.2908%, and 11 different parcel taxes adding up to $1710.

A home similar to ours sold on our street this summer for $1.05 M. I knew the owner (seller), he literally told me that they followed the realtor's instructions to "put some lipstick on this pig" to get it ready for sale. The $0.9 M profit would partly fund he and spouse's retirement relocation to Sierra foothills. The new owners signed up for a tax bill of about $15K.

B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says

...FUCKING DUMBEST ... god damn house. ...the kid can skip a fucking nap. ... You're not some special snowflake... a daily fucking .. Your fucking kid ... Humans are selfish as fuck. ... Stop being pussies.

Chill out, WookieMan.

Nope. Deal with 40-50 entitled sellers in one month. The other brokers. The lenders. The attorneys. The inspectors. HOA's. Insurance companies. Title companies. The list goes on. For 15 years. I managed all that shit. Sometimes 100 hours a week dealing with dip shits. It's why I took 3 years off and reconnected with myself. I was at the will of others that were trying to grab a piece of the pie.

Don't bitch about a showing when you're selling your house. That's fucking fact. Why even put your house up for sale? 8am-8pm is open game for your house to be shown if you want it to sell. That is part of home ownership. This is the only time I'll defend brokers. You work when othesr don't work. When your client works, you're trying to find the next buyer or listing. The commission is not justified, but it's not an easy job. Tons of emotion too. Take your kid for a god damn walk or ride in the stroller. Send them to granny's house.

We've become a country of pussies. Raise your kid. Be an adult. It's a human, it's not more special than any other human. It can go without its little nap time. Be happy someone wants to look at your home at 1pm and not 6pm when you want to have dinner. Fuck the nap. I've raised 2 boys. It's not difficult.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/18/homebuilder-sentiment-drops-to-half-of-what-it-was-six-months-ago.html

Homebuilder sentiment drops to half of what it was six months ago

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/venessawong/housing-market-buyers-remorse-homeowner-regret

She Bought Her House As The Market Peaked. Now She Regrets It.

WookieMan says

Chill out, WookieMan.

Nope

If you say so, WookieMan.

Be careful though, because anger can be destructive, particularly to those who are consumed with it.

B.A.C.A.H. says

If you say so, WookieMan.

Be careful though, because anger can be destructive, particularly to those who are consumed with it.

It's not anger. I like to swear. It gets to the point more directly. Calling someone a bitch or pussy in interpreted as anger to the listener or reader, that ain't me. Seller's that whine about having to sell their homes, generally at a profit are little bitches. You're likely selling something most of the time with 6 figure tax free appreciation unless you bought at the top and HAVE to sell at the bottom.

I give zero shits about Timmy's nap time. Don't expect pleasantries when you handcuff the person you'll end up paying thousands for a job you're asking them to do so you don't have to. It's moronic. I've raised two boys and have managed a real estate brokerage. Wife worked full time during that time. If you're selling your house then sell the fucking thing.

I dislike brokers having worked with them. No one here has a clue how stressful it is to run a brokerage though. I thought I'd get more sympathy from this crowd considering how the site was started/based on. Brokers are morons and dicks, but buyers and sellers are the worst. They have ZERO clue. They do it 2-3 times in their life generally. I was managing transaction 30 times a month roughly. I think it's Eman? that flips and has properties here at Patnet. If the average person is a 1 of 10 with knowledge on real estate, which 95% of people are, Eman is a 6 or 7. I'm a 9 or 10.

I'll never us an attorney or Realtor ever again. I can build a house, so inspectors are out. Especially in todays world. I can "list" my house anywhere. I don't need the MLS. I don't need a low cost brokerage. When you get a loan I'M doing 90% of the work. Lenders are used car sales people. They don't care. I'm going to GC my build. Why throw 20-30% of cost at idiots.

I guess I'd say this. It's knowledge and ego, not anger. Just calling out that 80% of people in real estate, at least, are dead weight. That's fact. Pareto 80/20. Then throw in emotional idiots buying and selling for the 2nd time and yeah, it's a shit show.

zzyzzx says

She Bought Her House As The Market Peaked. Now She Regrets It.

You buy a house with intent of owning it at least 5 years. Better to buy with an assumable mortgage at a low rate such as VA or FHA mortgage, that way you can sell the mortgage with the house.

I figured if we had to sell our home bought in 2016 with a VA mortgage at 3%, then half of the cost can be through the assumable mortgage at 3%, and the other half would be with a mortgage around 6%. So the effective rate 4.5%.

,

ad says

Better to buy with an assumable mortgage at a low rate such as VA or FHA mortgage, that way you can sell the mortgage with the house.

How often do people actually assume a VA loan? I ask because if the seller gives the buyer the VA loan then they cannot get another VA loan on their next purchase. Well, not unless the buyer is a veteran.

GNL says

How often do people actually assume a VA loan? I ask because if the seller gives the buyer the VA loan then they cannot get another VA loan on their next purchase. Well, not unless the buyer is a veteran.

Check with the bank providing the VA mortgage and also the VA, but the qualified buyer does not need to be a veteran to assume the VA mortgage. Also FHA mortgages are assumable.

I think also the maximum amount for a VA mortgage is $650,000. So whatever the seller hands over the buyer for the VA mortgage is subtracted. So if the buyer assumes $200,000 balance on the VA mortgage, then deduct that $200,000 from the $650,000. So the seller would only have $450,000 on eligibility as far as buying another house.

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GNL says

How often do people actually assume a VA loan? I ask because if the seller gives the buyer the VA loan then they cannot get another VA loan on their next purchase. Well, not unless the buyer is a veteran.

Veterans can have multiple loans. I don't know the details myself. My buddy owned two homes at one time with VA loans, veteran obviously. One he rented out, one he lived in. One of the perks of killing people and getting shot at. Both of which he did in Afghanistan.

I believe there are time limits of ownership, and it has to be primary, if you have multiple VA loans. Guessing, but live there for two years and you can get another place and rent out the old place. Probably distance related too. He moved from IL to MT.

Loans are overly complicated. I'm 50 miles outside of Chicago. Never would do this, but I could get a 2nd/vacation home loan with less than 20% down. If I was in Naperville for example 25-30 miles out, I'd have to come up with 20% down no matter what unless I had a small banker relationship. Fannie and Freddie won't do 2nd home loan within 50 miles of your primary without 20 down.

A great example is say you're a professor in Madison at the University of Wisconsin. 30 miles north is Mirror Lake in the Dells. You'd have to put 20% down if you went through the likes of Wells Fargo, BOA, Chase, etc. I'd consider a cabin there a vacation home, but because you live so close you have to pay more up front. I never understood the reasoning.

There are so many quirks to lending. If I ever get invested in RE again, I'm not using traditional banks. Network and know people with money. My MIL financed the house I'm sitting without using a dime of her cash. Margin. Got to get creative in RE sometimes.

WookieMan says

Just calling out that 80% of people in real estate, at least, are dead weight.

80? Are you sure? Sounds kind of low.

WookieMan says

Just calling out that 80% of people in real estate, at least, are dead weight.

80? Are you sure? Sounds kind of low. Oh, never mind, you wrote at least 80.

WookieMan says

30 miles north is Mirror Lake in the Dells.

I have very fond memories of Devil's Lake in Wisconsin Dells. Hope you get to check it out.

GNL says

if the seller gives the buyer the VA loan then they cannot get another VA loan on their next purchase. Well, not unless the buyer is a veteran.

And that Veteran buyer is willing to substitute his eligibility.

WookieMan says

Veterans can have multiple loans. I don't know the details myself. My buddy owned two homes at one time with VA loans, veteran obviously. One he rented out, one he lived in.

I have acquired 2 houses that I used as rentals by assuming VA loans, but I never substituted my eligibility. I assumed those loans from individuals who bought despite knowing their time on station would only be two years. I just took over payments with no "equity" buy. Anyone can assume as many VA loans as their finances allow them to qualify for, you do not have to be a Veteran. However, to originate a VA loan, you must be an eligible veteran. The VA loan was designed to make houses easier to buy (no down payment) and easier to sell (assumable) when the veteran transfers. The VA loan is also meant for the Veteran's primary home, if a Veteran uses a VA loan origination to acquire rental property, he is committing fraud, even though whoever assumes the loan can do as he likes. Now as you said, the veteran can later move out of his primary residence acquired with his VA privileges, and then he can rent out his home.

B.A.C.A.H. says

WookieMan says

Just calling out that 80% of people in real estate, at least, are dead weight.

80? Are you sure? Sounds kind of low.

We could generalize, 80% of ALL people are deadweight, higher in real estate.

WookieMan says

I'll never us an attorney or Realtor ever again.

I like that sentiment, especially the Realtor part (around here there is little cost difference between using an attorney to close versus a title company). Not so easy in practice to ditch a realtor when selling though. Problem is, the vast majority of serious buyers call a realtor. The buyers are totally unfamiliar with the home buying process and want their hand held throughout the whole affair and thus think a realtor is the only way to buy. I have been able to buy homes without a realtor, but only once was I able to sell without one.

HeadSet says

Problem is, the vast majority of serious buyers call a realtor. The buyers are totally unfamiliar with the home buying process and want their hand held throughout the whole affair and thus think a realtor is the only way to buy. I have been able to buy homes without a realtor, but only once was I able to sell without one.

EXACTLY. It is about reducing your risk as a seller. Even if you get a 1/2 competent and 1/2 honest sellers agent, then you are a lot more protected then going out on your own from predator buyers, scam artists, etc.

I rather just pay the 5% for that protection.

.

HeadSet says

Not so easy in practice to ditch a realtor when selling though. Problem is, the vast majority of serious buyers call a realtor.

Flat fee to a realtor to list it and you do the showings.

zzyzzx says

Flat fee to a realtor to list it and you do the showings.

And bikini model rental room specialists.

gabbar says

WookieMan says

30 miles north is Mirror Lake in the Dells.

I have very fond memories of Devil's Lake in Wisconsin Dells. Hope you get to check it out.

I've been there a bunch. Camped there multiple times. Us FIB's (Fucking Illinois Bastards) make Wisconsin not a shit hole because of our tourism, travel and $$$. It is a beautiful state. I've camped and stayed in Wisconsin hotels probably 200-300 nights of my life. We're doing Thanksgiving at a water park up there again this year (indoor).

Unfortunately fertilizer run off has fucked this lake up, but I love Castle Rock lake. Plenty of bars on the water. Anchor the boat in a sand bar and have a party with randoms or friends. Super cheap if you camp at the state or county parks. It's an underrated state. Especially if you can handle winters, which there are fun activities. They have a top notch trail system summer for UTV's or winter for snowmobiling. Decent skiing. Obviously ice fishing. Hunting.

When we sell our house depending on timing, we might get a 3 month rental up there as we build over the summer. Unless we get a buyer willing to do a leaseback and we just stay in the house. Would be hard for me with work. Trying to convince the wife to get her boss to go in on a property together just over the border on a lake. Costs the company less for her travel up there, can rent it out as an investment and we could use it. Win win.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/y7j284/8_months_ago_sellers_agent_called_my_offer_asking/

8 months ago, seller’s agent called my offer (asking price) “insultingly low”. This morning, same agent asked mine if I’m still interested.

And they’ve dropped their asking price by $15k since then.

I can put 30% down, maybe more, and I don’t have FOMO. I can easily afford the mortgage even at the higher rates. I’m looking for a place to call home for the next 20-25 years. Right now I’m renting month to month and I’m on great terms with my landlord as I’ve been here for years and he knows I’m looking to buy so I’m in no hurry.

This seller’s agent is about to see what “insultingly low” actually looks like.

Tell them you are considering amazing deals from 30 other sellers so you need to see who is in the top 5 and then get back to them.

Wait a few days... Heck even wait a few weeks. Tell them how you've been busy with so many sellers filling up your text messages and inbox. Take your time, then you tell them they are in the top 3 runner up, but in order to win you as their buyer, they need to do something more. Tell them that one of the top 3 sellers is giving an extra $25k off and paying for all closing costs.

You can even tell them how one of the sellers even wrote you letter saying how you'll be the perfect buyer to own their house. Tell them how they have to go above and beyond this to win you as their buyer otherwise you'll just buy from the other sellers.

Turn the table. Play the same game they used on us. An eye for an eye. No mercy.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/home-prices-housing-market-crash-fed-rate-hikes-jeremy-siegel-2022-10

Jeremy Siegel warns home prices are about to suffer their 2nd-worst crash since World War II amid Fed rate hikes

Inventory continues to stack up in Santa Cruz.

Ceffer says

Inventory continues to stack up in Santa Cruz.

Hipsters here may not remember or know about the Housing Crash in these parts in the early 90's.

Sales prices in certain pockets continued to rise even as they were falling elsewhere. I think the SF Bay Area continued to have appreciation when the LA Area went "flat".

First the homes were on the market for increasingly longer number of weeks. Weeks became months. Asking prices and sales prices fell. Fell a lot. It was deeper, and longer lasting, than what happened in the Bay Area during the fallout of the Financial Crisis. I think things started turning around in about 1994 - 1996.

Hipsters, deniers, Cool-Aid Drinkers and others will tell me how wrong I am to write this, and how it's "different this time", but what is happening now around here seems more like 1989-1991 than like 2007-2009.

https://t.me/epochtimes/69650

HeadSet says

The buyers are totally unfamiliar with the home buying process and want their hand held throughout the whole affair and thus think a realtor is the only way to buy. I have been able to buy homes without a realtor, but only once was I able to sell without one.

I'm no longer an agent/broker though. So legally I'm free from the licensing side and not losing my profession. I'm not a shit person and would never screw over anyone. I could easily handle making a buyer comfortable.

Also remember I'm in a small town. I work for the school district. I pretty much know anyone that would buy my house. Their kids. Their parents. Hell their grandparents. The buyer just needs an attorney in all reality. If they want an inspection, go for it. My house was built in '63. I did all the rehab work beside plumbing and HVAC. Is it perfect, no. But for the price point it would blow most people away. We have interested people just based on the gossip that we're building and moving.

Hell if something was messed up I'd come back and fix it after sale. We're in a very unique situation where a realtor makes zero sense for 5-6%. Even the low fee one's. You're still giving away 3.5% usually. I'm going to do all the marketing either way as I know I can do it better. You pay for MLS access. That's it. Now if you don't know how to take photos, market a property, handle a transaction with all the parties, I get using a realtor. I was one and don't need one. I'll save $15-20k on commission tax free gains.

I'm not at the price point where MLS access is worth it. I can get my house on all the same sites. Just takes a little work. Maybe 3-4 hours. I've managed 50-70 listings at once as well. So just one is a cake walk with showings and managing that. I can take better photos, have a drone (we have a pool, so important), can take day and night shots as our backyard is pretty kick ass at night.

I got out because I couldn't deal with the people and frankly the phone calls. Voicemail: "Hey it's Bill Dickwad with Coldwell Banker interested in X property, call me back at xxx-xxx-xxxx." WHAT THE FUCK DO YOU WANT!!!! Ask the question in the voicemail for fucks sake. Then we don't have to talk about it and can just answer the question on the return call that you won't answer just like I didn't.

I assumed that the housing market would model 1978-84. Inflation pressures, recession, and coming off a really large increase in housing prices that wants to be “sticky.” From 1974-1980 the price of houses went up quite a lot, maybe 100% or more.
Then Reagan was elected and interest rates went to the moon. This stopped house pricing gains and they went slowly back down. Slowly! And they also didn’t start appreciating much at all the rest of that decade.
I think maybe the house prices over compensated for inflation and then fell back down slightly to a more “normal” place as inflation came under control. By the time the 90s came around, nobody was interested in housing because it had been a decade-long loser, a commodity that everyone came to see as “fixed.”

If that timeline pays out again, we should have softening prices and few sales. The major difference between then and now is that private equity owns so very much residential real estate. It won’t allow prices to drop TOO much. Maybe 20% drop and then they’ll snap up any properties that go lower. This will put a “floor” under prices, artificially. When the recession ends, and inflation is over, there may be another increase. It’s going to be a while tho. Housing is a loser for years.

Shaman says

The major difference between then and now is that private equity owns so very much residential real estate. It won’t al...

The other BIG factor is remote work. Before remote work, people often had to move if they switched jobs. Now, people stay put and never sell assuming they can afford the payment.

Shaman says

I assumed that the housing market would model 1978-84. Inflation pressures, recession, and coming off a really large increase in housing prices that wants to be “sticky.” From 1974-1980 the price of houses went up quite a lot, maybe 100% or more.

I remember that time.

I was in high school in 1977 when my best friend's family moved from SJ to the Peninsula. Around the time the family moved in April-ish of that year, there was a huge front page headline in the SJ Mercury: SJ home prices had gone up a huge amount (I think it was 30%) year-to-date. This is what got me interested in all this stuff when I was only a freshman in high school. So, I began looking at the homes for sale ads in the classified section of the newspaper.

(Something else that happened during that time was passage of Proposition 13, because tax bills that came with the market assessments were forcing folks to sell).

Obviously, those years were before the internet and craig's list and all that stuff. The classified ads, which were paid for by character or line, showed as few characters as possible. Lots of shorthand. WD, AEK, 3/3 (BR/BA), 1400 (sq ft), and of course contact info for the ®ealtor.

The interval shaman mentioned, is last time the fed began a rate hike campaign to fight inflation, and was BEFORE the S&L crisis.

Market rates for mortgages got horribly high. But it was OK, because (before the S&L crisis) all the mortgages were assumable. Along with the numbers about sq ft, etc, were the terms of the assumable mortgage, written in shorthand with the balance (or payment), rate and remaining term. Buyers would assume the mortgage and pay cash either out of pocket or with a small loan, for the difference between the mortgage balance and the purchase price. The terms of the assumable mortgages were every bit as important as the "location-location-location" and physical characteristics of the house.

The assumability of the mortgages propped up the house prices during that period. Enactment of Proposition 13 in 1978 further propped up the prices by preventing more of the tax-stress sales.

After the collapse of S&L, most new mortgages are no longer assumable with the original terms.

In this sense, Hipsters and ®eatlors are right: It Is different this time.

Thw 10-year UST is heading past 4%.

zzyzzx says

HeadSet says

Not so easy in practice to ditch a realtor when selling though. Problem is, the vast majority of serious buyers call a realtor.

Flat fee to a realtor to list it and you do the showings.

A "flat fee" without a commission to the buyer's agent means no agents will bring anyone to you house to show. You would at best get someone to come by that happened to talk to your listing agent. Fat chance. Notice that the typical "flat fee" listing is something like $2500 to get listed, then 3% to the selling agent. Even then many realtors avoid showing flat fee listings, which I do not understand since they get the same 3% as with a multilisted house.

WookieMan says

I pretty much know anyone that would buy my house.

That is a good position. Cardinal Rule here - if you already have a buyer, you do not need a realtor. If you do not have a buyer, you need a realtor to find one since the overwhelming amount of serious buyers call a realtor.

Again, the only purpose of a realtor is to find a buyer. The need for a seller to have a realtor has nothing to do with inspections, closing details, or handling a transaction.

WookieMan says

You pay for MLS access. That's it.

MLS access is a big deal, and the only true advantage the realtor has. Although it may work for you, the average Joe will not be able to market to serious buyers no matter how well he can take photos, drone shots, write copy, and get his polished flyer posted up on the Piggly Wiggly bulletin board or on the celebrity wall of Big Fat Herb's Diesel Cafe and Firing Range. Newspaper ads and FSBO web sites do not help either. Joe may be the best marketer in all of southwestern Brown County, but that does not matter if all the buyers start by reflexively calling a realtor.

The Fed is trying to bring us back to the 1990s as far as interest rates. Everything has been turned upside down as far as economics such as price discovery and valuation since the first days of zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) and quantitative easing (QE) in 2009. They should have made these rate increases in 2014 after 5 year of this.

I suspect once the Fed Funds rate steadies around 4.5% by next spring then the 30 year mortgage rate will settle between 5.5% and 6.5%. Expect at least a 20% drop in home prices from it peak levels when the 30 year rate was around 3%.