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housing prices peak 2
invite response
2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm 457,572 views 4,769 comments
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1793
GNL
2023 Feb 27, 1:02pm
GNL
2023 Feb 27, 1:02pm
GNL says
Obviously you don't understand how to invest in RE. Cash flow doesn't matter. No, you invest for future equity but first make sure interest rates are rising.
LMAO
Obviously you don't understand how to invest in RE. Cash flow doesn't matter. No, you invest for future equity but first make sure interest rates are rising.
1794
Eman
2023 Feb 27, 5:19pm
Eman
2023 Feb 27, 5:19pm
zzyzzx says
Buyer’s remorse. It’s that simple. No one forced them to buy the house.
https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/11cycta/when_youre_stuck/
What do you do when you hate the house you bought, the things you hate about it you can’t change (constant traffic noise), and you can’t afford to sell?
We bought it because we owned a 2 bedroom apartment and have 2 kids. I wanted to move before my older daughter started kindergarten so we felt we were in a time crunch even though the market was not ideal for buyers. Basically we needed a house, looked at and made offers on many, and this is the one we got. It checked enough of the boxes but the busyness of the road was something I failed to prioritize or fully realize.
Buyer’s remorse. It’s that simple. No one forced them to buy the house.
1796
GNL
2023 Feb 27, 5:22pm
GNL
2023 Feb 27, 5:22pm
cisTits says
Just in case.../sarc
GNL says
Obviously you don't understand how to invest in RE. Cash flow doesn't matter. No, you invest for future equity but first make sure interest rates are rising.
Only amateurs do that.
Just in case.../sarc
1797
Eman
2023 Feb 27, 5:22pm
Eman
2023 Feb 27, 5:22pm
zzyzzx says
Auction = foreclosure? If this is the case, the owner should ask for a postponement. List the house and sell it for as close to fair market value (FMV) as possible. At auction in the current market environment, my guess is that the house would sell for 70% of FMV at most. The discounted offers are justified.
https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/11d11fg/yikes/
Honestly it's not too early to start lowballing people. I'm considering sending a 60% of list offer on a large commercial property. The fact is rising taxes and interest rates don't justify anything near the asking price. If they don't want to be reasonable then I'll simply wait until things get worse and the offer will not be improving when they come back to me later.
Auction = foreclosure? If this is the case, the owner should ask for a postponement. List the house and sell it for as close to fair market value (FMV) as possible. At auction in the current market environment, my guess is that the house would sell for 70% of FMV at most. The discounted offers are justified.
1798
Eman
2023 Feb 27, 5:25pm
Eman
2023 Feb 27, 5:25pm
zzyzzx says
This is a real issue, especially for commercial properties, where the loans are becoming adjustable. JPM loan officer told us they’ve been doing cash-in refinance on loans that adjust recently. So far, owners have been able to bring in the difference for the refinance. No red flag……yet. This is specifically to Bay Area commercial real estate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/landlords-face-crisis-mortgage-costs-171034546.html
Landlords face crisis as mortgage costs surge higher than rents
This is a real issue, especially for commercial properties, where the loans are becoming adjustable. JPM loan officer told us they’ve been doing cash-in refinance on loans that adjust recently. So far, owners have been able to bring in the difference for the refinance. No red flag……yet. This is specifically to Bay Area commercial real estate.
1799
Eman
2023 Feb 27, 5:26pm
Eman
2023 Feb 27, 5:26pm
HeadSet says
The same with Canada and Australia. Only ARMs. No 30-year fixed mortgages like the USA. 🚀🚀
zzyzzx says
Landlords face crisis as mortgage costs surge higher than rents
This is more the case in Britain where all mortgages are variable rate.
The same with Canada and Australia. Only ARMs. No 30-year fixed mortgages like the USA. 🚀🚀
1800
GNL
2023 Feb 28, 5:53pm
GNL
2023 Feb 28, 5:53pm
@cisTits - what about inventory? Here in Northern Virginia, Realtors are telling me every day that things are selling quickly and at full price.
1801
Patrick
2023 Feb 28, 9:32pm
Patrick
2023 Feb 28, 9:32pm
https://wolfstreet.com/2023/02/28/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-february-update-biggest-price-drops-now-in-phoenix-portland-las-vegas-san-francisco-seattle-denver-san-diego/
Housing Bubble 2 is deflating relentlessly, not under the pressure of an unemployment crisis – far from it: the labor market is still historically tight with the highest pay increases in four decades, and an increase in unemployment would be the next shoe to drop on the housing market – but because mortgage rates have reverted to the normal levels of 6% to 7% that existed before the money-printing era started in 2008. And home prices that exploded over the past few years, fueled by mortgage rates of 3% and lower, don’t make sense anymore – and never made sense to begin with. ...
On a month-to-month basis, today’s Case-Shiller Index for single-family house prices dropped in all 20 metros that it covers. The biggest month-to-month drops, those dropping at least 1.0%, occurred in:
Phoenix: -1.9% (second month in a row! The babe is moving fast)
Portland: -1.9%
Las Vegas: -1.8%
San Francisco Bay Area: -1.8%
Seattle: -1.8%
Denver: -1.3%
San Diego: -1.3%
Chicago: -1.2%
Minneapolis: -1.2%
Dallas: -1.1%
Detroit: -1.1%
Charlotte: -1.0%
From their respective peaks, which ranged from May to July 2022, house prices dropped the most in these metros:
San Francisco Bay Area: -16.0%
Seattle: -15.1%
San Diego: -11.1%
Phoenix: -9.4%
Denver: -7.5%
Las Vegas: -8.8%
Los Angeles: -8.1%
Portland: -7.9%
Dallas: -7.6%
1802
WookieMan
2023 Feb 28, 10:01pm
WookieMan
2023 Feb 28, 10:01pm
West coast and hipster cities are going to eat shit. If someone didn't see that coming after covid you're not thinking. I've beaten this dead horse so many times here and I've 100% been right. There is and will be an exodus from cities. Covid accelerated that with work from home, millennials starting families, defund the police and just shitty politics.
Of the big negatives I think Phoenix has the highest probability of recovery. Denver has needed its ass handed to it for a decade now. The growth was not logical and likely ignited by legal pot. The west coast cities are obvious. Smart people generally don't live in a place led by morons, taxed at insane rates and political policy.
Regardless of interest rates I'm not losing selling my $1M home in Seattle and buying a $500k home in Spokane. Until people realize that most home buyers are white collar and can now work from home, major cities are going to take a beating. I lived the exodus from a major city like Chicago. The floor is much higher here for price loses. We're seeing price gains where I'm at and outside of 10% interest rates it's not stopping. It's not booming but we're hitting 3-5% increases annually still. Not losses.
Of the big negatives I think Phoenix has the highest probability of recovery. Denver has needed its ass handed to it for a decade now. The growth was not logical and likely ignited by legal pot. The west coast cities are obvious. Smart people generally don't live in a place led by morons, taxed at insane rates and political policy.
Regardless of interest rates I'm not losing selling my $1M home in Seattle and buying a $500k home in Spokane. Until people realize that most home buyers are white collar and can now work from home, major cities are going to take a beating. I lived the exodus from a major city like Chicago. The floor is much higher here for price loses. We're seeing price gains where I'm at and outside of 10% interest rates it's not stopping. It's not booming but we're hitting 3-5% increases annually still. Not losses.
1803
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 1, 6:11am
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 1, 6:11am
https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-economists-markets-investing-housing-correction-crash-economy-rate-hikes-2023-2
The Fed's own economists are warning of a 19.5% housing correction and more rate hikes could set off a 'domino effect'
The Fed's own economists are warning of a 19.5% housing correction and more rate hikes could set off a 'domino effect'
1804
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 1, 6:12am
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 1, 6:12am
GNL says
Probably still the case around here, for now.
Here in Northern Virginia, Realtors are telling me every day that things are selling quickly and at full price.
Probably still the case around here, for now.
1805
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 1, 6:15am
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 1, 6:15am
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/mortgage-demand-falls-interest-rates-rise.html
Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low
Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low
1806
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 1, 6:23am
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 1, 6:23am
Ouch, nothing like paying $16k over ask just to take a $90k loss later...
2/10/2023 Sold $660,000
1/11/2023 Pending sale $699,879
12/7/2022 Price change $699,879
11/28/2022 Price change $799,000
11/16/2022 Price change $825,000
10/20/2022 Listed for sale $850,000
6/16/2022 Sold $750,000
4/26/2022 Pending sale $734,000
4/22/2022 Listed for sale $734,000
https://www.zillow.com/homes/9207-Woodbay-Dr-Tampa,-FL-33626_rb/44857898_zpid/
2/10/2023 Sold $660,000
1/11/2023 Pending sale $699,879
12/7/2022 Price change $699,879
11/28/2022 Price change $799,000
11/16/2022 Price change $825,000
10/20/2022 Listed for sale $850,000
6/16/2022 Sold $750,000
4/26/2022 Pending sale $734,000
4/22/2022 Listed for sale $734,000
https://www.zillow.com/homes/9207-Woodbay-Dr-Tampa,-FL-33626_rb/44857898_zpid/
1807
WookieMan
2023 Mar 1, 6:41am
WookieMan
2023 Mar 1, 6:41am
zzyzzx says
In normally priced markets that are $700k or under, they should weather the storm relatively well. Where this will appear to be a crash is the cities and coastal areas.
Also 90% of owners bought when interest rates were sub 5% and that's not accounting for those that bought with cash. This isn't 2004-08 where we were giving strippers and unqualified people loans based off of undocumented income. Inventory shot above double digits into the 15-20 month range at that time. People might sell in cities to get the fuck out, but people are simply staying put.
I was personally managing 80+ listing during the crash. It was insane. Unless they're giving away loans again, I'm not see it. This is a demographic shift out of cities. Their prices tend to be higher. The national median AND city prices will go down. But it's not a crash.
My sister in law just got an all cash offer on her rental property. No price cuts. 2 weeks. Little cottage house near a lake in Northwest IL. I've never once said there won't be declines. People's perception of the market is from their location and they assume that's how it will be everywhere. It isn't and won't be...
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/mortgage-demand-falls-interest-rates-rise.html
Mortgage demand from homebuyers drops to a 28-year low
In normally priced markets that are $700k or under, they should weather the storm relatively well. Where this will appear to be a crash is the cities and coastal areas.
Also 90% of owners bought when interest rates were sub 5% and that's not accounting for those that bought with cash. This isn't 2004-08 where we were giving strippers and unqualified people loans based off of undocumented income. Inventory shot above double digits into the 15-20 month range at that time. People might sell in cities to get the fuck out, but people are simply staying put.
I was personally managing 80+ listing during the crash. It was insane. Unless they're giving away loans again, I'm not see it. This is a demographic shift out of cities. Their prices tend to be higher. The national median AND city prices will go down. But it's not a crash.
My sister in law just got an all cash offer on her rental property. No price cuts. 2 weeks. Little cottage house near a lake in Northwest IL. I've never once said there won't be declines. People's perception of the market is from their location and they assume that's how it will be everywhere. It isn't and won't be...
1808
Blue
2023 Mar 1, 7:09am
Good news for renters. Heard over the radio 1220am, relief is on the way for renters that 500k apartments will be finished soon and put pressure on upside.
1809
GNL
2023 Mar 1, 8:03am
GNL
2023 Mar 1, 8:03am
cisTits says
I don't think you can expect a crash when inventory is low.
GNL says
cisTits - what about inventory? Here in Northern Virginia, Realtors are telling me every day that things are selling quickly and at full price.
What about it?
I don't think you can expect a crash when inventory is low.
1811
AD
2023 Mar 1, 1:27pm
AD
2023 Mar 1, 1:27pm
Blue says
Lots of apartments going up in Panama City and Panama City Beach.
Seen a lot of apartment websites offering 1 month free for 13 month lease.
Seems like rental prices are back at 2021 levels without the 1 month discount.
I suspect rental rates will be frozen for next couple of years to allow wage growth to better align with past rental price increases.
Good news for renters. Heard over the radio 1220am, relief is on the way for renters that 500k apartments will be finished soon and put pressure on upside.
Lots of apartments going up in Panama City and Panama City Beach.
Seen a lot of apartment websites offering 1 month free for 13 month lease.
Seems like rental prices are back at 2021 levels without the 1 month discount.
I suspect rental rates will be frozen for next couple of years to allow wage growth to better align with past rental price increases.
1813
Booger
2023 Mar 1, 3:43pm
Booger
2023 Mar 1, 3:43pm
ad says
That's way too fucking expensive for the panhandle.
https://www.zillow.com/home-values/6391/panama-city-beach-fl/
https://www.zillow.com/research/
That's way too fucking expensive for the panhandle.
1814
AD
2023 Mar 1, 6:18pm
AD
2023 Mar 1, 6:18pm
Booger says
Housing here in the Florida panhandle needs to drop about 20% from its peak levels. It is already 6% down based on Redfin research data.
.
That's way too fucking expensive for the panhandle.
Housing here in the Florida panhandle needs to drop about 20% from its peak levels. It is already 6% down based on Redfin research data.
.
1815
WookieMan
2023 Mar 1, 6:50pm
WookieMan
2023 Mar 1, 6:50pm
I haven't looked at prices in the Western panhandle area. Pensacola, Navarre, Destin, Fort Walton, etc. Eastern areas like St. George Island are fucking nuts on all levels. Had a chance to buy our vacation rental at $450k that would rent for $2,200/wk. It's now $900k and easily rents for $5k/wk now.
Unique area. They zoned it so there couldn't be condo towers. Not the same, but similar to CA's prop 13. When you create scarcity prices go bonkers. That's one pocket that's going to likely see a downturn at least in FL that I know well. Rural tourist area. A lot of wealthy Floridians and Georgians go there because it's quiet, good beaches, good fishing, oysters, Appalachicola is a quaint little hipster town. Plantation has a landing strip. Really cool island and regret not investing there.
Unique area. They zoned it so there couldn't be condo towers. Not the same, but similar to CA's prop 13. When you create scarcity prices go bonkers. That's one pocket that's going to likely see a downturn at least in FL that I know well. Rural tourist area. A lot of wealthy Floridians and Georgians go there because it's quiet, good beaches, good fishing, oysters, Appalachicola is a quaint little hipster town. Plantation has a landing strip. Really cool island and regret not investing there.
1817
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 2, 7:44am
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 2, 7:44am
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstone-blocked-investor-withdrawals-71-174423166.html
Blackstone blocked investor withdrawals from $71 billion REIT in February
Blackstone blocked investor withdrawals from $71 billion REIT in February
1818
Blue
2023 Mar 2, 2:19pm
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/03/02/mortgage-rates-back-over-7percent.html
Things getting interesting at 7+% rates. Really a great news if it can sustain the rate for long. But again free printing press might not give a break which makes cash is worth less.
Things getting interesting at 7+% rates. Really a great news if it can sustain the rate for long. But again free printing press might not give a break which makes cash is worth less.
1820
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 3, 11:42am
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 3, 11:42am
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-home-prices-could-plunge-risk-deep-housing-slide-fed-economist-warns
US home prices could plunge 20% amid risk of 'deep' housing slide, Fed economist warns
US home prices could plunge 20% amid risk of 'deep' housing slide, Fed economist warns
1821
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 3, 11:44am
zzyzzx
2023 Mar 3, 11:44am
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-sale-prices-fall-first-time/
Housing Market Update: Home Prices Fall Annually For First Time In A Decade As Mortgage Rates Pass 7%
Housing Market Update: Home Prices Fall Annually For First Time In A Decade As Mortgage Rates Pass 7%
1822
AD
2023 Mar 3, 1:37pm
AD
2023 Mar 3, 1:37pm
Been looking to buy 300 shares in Invitation Homes and sell weekly covered calls for at least 1 year.
Invitation Homes buys residential real estate and then rents them. Another residential rental company of my interest that offers rentals (but has different business model) is Avalon Bay.
I think both are good long term holdings for real estate.
.
Invitation Homes buys residential real estate and then rents them. Another residential rental company of my interest that offers rentals (but has different business model) is Avalon Bay.
I think both are good long term holdings for real estate.
.
1824
gabbar
2023 Mar 4, 4:32am
gabbar
2023 Mar 4, 4:32am
WookieMan says
Prices are not too bad in this town. What do you think about Tallahassee?
Appalachicola is a quaint little hipster town.
Prices are not too bad in this town. What do you think about Tallahassee?
1826
WookieMan
2023 Mar 4, 5:47am
WookieMan
2023 Mar 4, 5:47am
gabbar says
The problem with the Panhandle and Northern FL is you're going to run into your stereotypical white trash and southern blacks. So there will be cheap prices for housing inland. @ad could probably speak better to it than I can. My mom unloaded all her property down there over the last 3 years. So I have no stake or interest in knowing prices down there anymore. But you can pick up solid house 30-40 minutes from the beach for $250k, from Pensacola to Tallahassee.
Only been to Tallahassee twice. Didn't like the vibe. Spending 3 days in the Jacksonville area in a couple weeks. I've heard negative things. But I hear that about everywhere. I wouldn't make Tallahassee a destination though. Unless your kid wants to go to FSU. I'm sure outlying suburbs are nice, but Tallahassee proper was college town ghetto from my experience. Probably fun if you want to party and fool around with young college chicks. I would, just don't want to live there and I'm married. lol.
I think I just typed Tallahassee more times in this comment than my entire life...
WookieMan says
Appalachicola is a quaint little hipster town.
Prices are not too bad in this town. What do you think about Tallahassee?
The problem with the Panhandle and Northern FL is you're going to run into your stereotypical white trash and southern blacks. So there will be cheap prices for housing inland. @ad could probably speak better to it than I can. My mom unloaded all her property down there over the last 3 years. So I have no stake or interest in knowing prices down there anymore. But you can pick up solid house 30-40 minutes from the beach for $250k, from Pensacola to Tallahassee.
Only been to Tallahassee twice. Didn't like the vibe. Spending 3 days in the Jacksonville area in a couple weeks. I've heard negative things. But I hear that about everywhere. I wouldn't make Tallahassee a destination though. Unless your kid wants to go to FSU. I'm sure outlying suburbs are nice, but Tallahassee proper was college town ghetto from my experience. Probably fun if you want to party and fool around with young college chicks. I would, just don't want to live there and I'm married. lol.
I think I just typed Tallahassee more times in this comment than my entire life...
1827
AD
2023 Mar 4, 11:18am
AD
2023 Mar 4, 11:18am
WookieMan says
What's wrong with that ? It keeps away the Democrat doucebags from the north and California.
.
The problem with the Panhandle and Northern FL is you're going to run into your stereotypical white trash
What's wrong with that ? It keeps away the Democrat doucebags from the north and California.
.
1828
AD
2023 Mar 4, 12:00pm
AD
2023 Mar 4, 12:00pm
WookieMan says
True that. I like all those charming towns like Chipley, Cottondale, Crestview, Florala, Ponce De Leon, etc.
Paradise is living in Florida and only being within a 1 hour drive of Alabama. Roll Tide.
.
But you can pick up solid house 30-40 minutes from the beach for $250k, from Pensacola to Tallahassee.
True that. I like all those charming towns like Chipley, Cottondale, Crestview, Florala, Ponce De Leon, etc.
Paradise is living in Florida and only being within a 1 hour drive of Alabama. Roll Tide.
.
1829
WookieMan
2023 Mar 4, 12:24pm
WookieMan
2023 Mar 4, 12:24pm
ad says
I live in that in IL. Around me is mostly white trash but most our friends are white collar. So not complaining. Uppity people as you say don't like that element. I love it. Real people and fun as long as they control their alcohol consumption and drug usage. I love the Panhandle. Have probably spent 2 years of my life there from Pensacola to St. George island.
My parents had multiple properties in Milton and Navarre. We did have a low rise 2/2 condo there for maybe 10 years at Navarre beach. Had some of the most ridiculous times there from 16-25. Speeding we could get from Chicago land down there in 12 hours. We got kids now and between pissing it's now turned into a 16-18 hour journey where we would usually stop in Trashville, TN.
We fly into PNS now. Southwest flies to Destin haven't tried PCB either. I love St. George but prices for rentals have gotten obscene.
What's wrong with that ? It keeps away the Democrat doucebags from the north and California.
I live in that in IL. Around me is mostly white trash but most our friends are white collar. So not complaining. Uppity people as you say don't like that element. I love it. Real people and fun as long as they control their alcohol consumption and drug usage. I love the Panhandle. Have probably spent 2 years of my life there from Pensacola to St. George island.
My parents had multiple properties in Milton and Navarre. We did have a low rise 2/2 condo there for maybe 10 years at Navarre beach. Had some of the most ridiculous times there from 16-25. Speeding we could get from Chicago land down there in 12 hours. We got kids now and between pissing it's now turned into a 16-18 hour journey where we would usually stop in Trashville, TN.
We fly into PNS now. Southwest flies to Destin haven't tried PCB either. I love St. George but prices for rentals have gotten obscene.
1830
AmericanKulak
2023 Mar 4, 12:48pm
AmericanKulak
2023 Mar 4, 12:48pm
WookieMan says
All the Central Florida towns are full of the high crime element... Ocala, Talahasee, Gainesville. Jax as well.
Only been to Tallahassee twice. Didn't like the vibe. Spending 3 days in the Jacksonville area in a couple weeks. I've heard negative things. But I hear that about everywhere. I wouldn't make Tallahassee a destination though. Unless your kid wants to go to FSU. I'm sure outlying suburbs are nice, but Tallahassee proper was college town ghetto from my experience. Probably fun if you want to party and fool around with young college chicks. I would, just don't want to live there and I'm married. lol.
All the Central Florida towns are full of the high crime element... Ocala, Talahasee, Gainesville. Jax as well.
1831
AD
2023 Mar 4, 12:54pm
AD
2023 Mar 4, 12:54pm
AmericanKulak says
hood rat environment and culture
.
All the Central Florida towns are full of the high crime element... Ocala, Talahasee, Gainesville. Jax as well.
hood rat environment and culture
.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.