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So the bottom for U.S. median home price in the upcoming housing crash will be near the peak at the last housing boom (~2009-2011) ?
Looks like the bottom for the the 2009-2011 housing crash was near the peak for the housing boom in 1989.
Totally, this couldn’t be more different than 07/08. What happened in 05-07 was a once in a lifetime occurrence (ninja loans and stated income + arm loans). Owners back then should never have been allowed to buy and owners today are in the best shape ever. Inventory (active listings) was rising to 4M back then while inventory today is at all time lows. Too funny that some people still compare this to today.
Buying houses was the best investment besides crypto.
I don't think there's much upside for a while, but the floor on prices is pretty high if they drop at all. We'd need double digit interest rates for a true negative move.
WookieMan says
I don't think there's much upside for a while, but the floor on prices is pretty high if they drop at all. We'd need double digit interest rates for a true negative move.
Double digit inflation can not pull the prices down for too long.
Too funny that some people still compare this to today.
WookieMan says
You're back...
Yep, hi Wookie and Patnet :)
You can’t seriously suggest that todays market rhymes with what happened in 07/08!
nuttboxer, My lifestyle? Buying a house opens a lot more opportunities. First of all you save and build wealth. The rent for my house would be triple of my mortgage!! Renting longterm in states like CA is financial suicide. Buying houses was the best investment besides crypto. It’s really not that complicated: rents go up long term. A mortgage remains stable and goes down when you refi. Inflation is your best friend when you own assets like real estate. what I really don’t get with your comment is, don’t you realize you pay waaaay more in the long run in renting instead of owning but the worst part is: not only did you pay more in rent compared to a mortgage but at the end you have nothing to show for. Makes me think how thankful I am for long term renters who pay off my houses. I really shouldnt try to convince them to change their lifestyle.
Renting longterm in states like CA is financial suicide.
Renting longterm in states like CA is financial suicide. Buying houses was the best investment besides crypto.
NuttBoxer says
Renting longterm in states like CA is financial suicide.
Not necessarily. I did quite well by renting.
How much money do you owe? I don't owe anything.
How much money do you owe? I don't owe anything.
Nuttboxer, why does it have to be so dramatic (leveraging up the ass). Just because I own properties doesn’t mean I am drowning in debt. Yeah, sure, when you add up the debt of these houses it’s seems like a large figure but that’s the wrong way of looking at it.
A mortgage loan 'officer' told me, you have this 100k cash in your account because you didn't upgrade your life after graduating from school; you still live like a poor student. And I was actually living a great life then, spending money on things I liked to do.
Patrick has been renting at least since I remember this article, and seeing him around 2007 on ABC's 20/20 being interviewed about the housing boom. The 20/20 episode on housing is what led me to Patrick.net
You can still recover from opportunity cost of not buying a home by diligently investing in the stock market any savings from not buying a home.
ltimately it's a preference if you have discipline
Nuttboxer, why does it have to be so dramatic (leveraging up the ass). Just because I own properties doesn’t mean I am drowning in debt. Yeah, sure, when you add up the debt of these houses it’s seems like a large figure but that’s the wrong way of looking at it. The market value of those homes is significantly more than the debt.
How many of your renter friends are financially disciplined and dollar cost avg (without emotional mess ups ) for a long period of time? Very few.
otally agree with KRC. A home gives me space to store toys, additional cars, allows me to entertain and have larger parties etc. I don’t really care what my house is worth right now because I intend to never sell it. Evt I rent it out. Let’s say it increases by 30% in the next years. Great. Let’s say it loses 70% of its value. Great. None of these mean anything to my monthly bills. I get to live in my dream home and create memories with my family and friends.
Totally agree with KRC. A home gives me space to store toys, additional cars, allows me to entertain and have larger parties etc.
The low mortgage is guaranteed for the next 25 years until the house is paid off…..what will that apartment rent for in 25years?
Rents tend to go up and mortgages are fixed. In San Diego for instance, the avg rent for apartments is close to 3k! That’s more than my mortgage on a large house!
And it only gets better for me. The low mortgage is guaranteed for the next 25 years until the house is paid off…..what will that apartment rent for in 25years? Jeez I don’t even want to know.
You know prices for anything, doesn't matter what it is, can't go past what people are willing to pay or can afford right? I mean this reasoning sounds very '06 to me
Forgive me, I have a hard time following what your point is.
Nuttboxer, do I read this correctly, you are moving to Yuma to rent there or are you planning on buying a house there?
And regarding the rents in San Diego. That’s a 15 sec exercise to open your Zillow app and see the enormous high rents in the city. I am just the messenger.
For any significant price drops you need inventory to go up significantly, right?
Think about it, if I sell my home today because I want to upgrade or downgrade, I would give up 2.75% for 25y and replace it with 6.5%. Why wouldn’t I just stay put if I can?
I see. 50% doesn’t seem bad as a premium. I assume you are talking about monthly rent versus PITI. The p of course stands for principal. That’s your money/equity. And the premium on your PITI is only at the beginning. After a few years rents catch up and soon thereafter your rent is higher than someone else’ mortgage for a comparable property. But I see you point, you look at it as of now: cheaper to rent than to own you rent and wait until prices come down. Good for you. I hope it works out.
So, going forward, what happens to the real estate agents, brokers, mortgage officers, car salesmen, auto financing...or any other business where financing is required?
So you are in the outskirts of San Diego then. You are not talking about being in the city of SD. Don’t dox yourself, but could you tell me which city you are in? My mortgage is under 3k including HOA and I have 4bedrooms, 3 bathrooms, a large loft, an office, a great room, large backyard, 3 car garage. And that’s my point, in a few years a one bedroom apartment cost as much in rent as my house thanks to inflation. To me that’s a no brainer to buy because of those ever increasing rents.
Let us know how you like Yuma. People I know who moved from SD to phoenix like it except for the brutal summers.
Like I said, already seen two houses drop several hundred off their rent because they were sitting. I ain't thinking, I'm seeing.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.