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housing prices peak 2
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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm 606,651 views 5,687 comments
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218
Eman
2022 Jun 27, 7:10pm
Eman
2022 Jun 27, 7:10pm
ad says
By these metrics, SPX dropped 52% during the dotcom year. Real estate prices dropped like 10% in the Bay Area. Elsewhere of the nation didn’t feel much of it.
During the global financial crisis 2008, SPX dropped 57% while real estate dropped 34%.
Is it reasonable to use the above metrics to extrapolate the potential drop in housing prices rather than simply using the monthly payments?
Eman says
actually happened
S&P 500 peaked to 3381 in February 2020.
It is now at 3900 after dropping from 4818.
It recently bottomed to 3636 (a 24.5% drop) and this bottom is within 10% of the February 2020 peak. That drop to 3636 wiped out a majority of the COVID pandemic gains.
By these metrics, SPX dropped 52% during the dotcom year. Real estate prices dropped like 10% in the Bay Area. Elsewhere of the nation didn’t feel much of it.
During the global financial crisis 2008, SPX dropped 57% while real estate dropped 34%.
Is it reasonable to use the above metrics to extrapolate the potential drop in housing prices rather than simply using the monthly payments?
219
AD
2022 Jun 27, 8:42pm
AD
2022 Jun 27, 8:42pm
Eman says
I am not sure about the correlation but housing was not inflated in the dotcom era. It was inflated in 2007 and is inflated now.
Housing just started to be treated more and more as a speculative asset and cash machine (i.e., home equity loans, etc) around 2003
........
Is it reasonable to use the above metrics to extrapolate the potential drop in housing prices
I am not sure about the correlation but housing was not inflated in the dotcom era. It was inflated in 2007 and is inflated now.
Housing just started to be treated more and more as a speculative asset and cash machine (i.e., home equity loans, etc) around 2003
........
220
AD
2022 Jun 27, 8:44pm
AD
2022 Jun 27, 8:44pm
B.A.C.A.H. says
exactly as far as supply and demand as well as price discovery
it comes down to good value and affordability
i guess for stocks that means price to earnings to growth ratio (PEG), etc.
for housing that means the housing costs is not more than 38% of monthly income or that the landlord buying it can make at least an annual ROI of 8%
..
If we have the right products price, they’ll still sell in any market.
exactly as far as supply and demand as well as price discovery
it comes down to good value and affordability
i guess for stocks that means price to earnings to growth ratio (PEG), etc.
for housing that means the housing costs is not more than 38% of monthly income or that the landlord buying it can make at least an annual ROI of 8%
..
221
AD
2022 Jun 27, 8:58pm
AD
2022 Jun 27, 8:58pm
Booger says
yes they do ... they always over correct and their is a slaughter with blood on the streets (or wall street) ...that is due to the herd mentality and panic selling ...
Don't most things overcorrect?
yes they do ... they always over correct and their is a slaughter with blood on the streets (or wall street) ...that is due to the herd mentality and panic selling ...
222
AD
2022 Jun 27, 9:01pm
AD
2022 Jun 27, 9:01pm
HunterTits says
20% of home buyers were investors for 1st quarter 2022 according to the above redfin website
that does not surprise me ...we'll see how well those investors fare as long term and vacation/short term landlords
Redfin Investor Purchases by zip code:
https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/new-construction/
20% of home buyers were investors for 1st quarter 2022 according to the above redfin website
that does not surprise me ...we'll see how well those investors fare as long term and vacation/short term landlords
223
Eman
2022 Jun 27, 9:56pm
Eman
2022 Jun 27, 9:56pm
HunterTits says
Interesting investors didn’t slow down in buying properties through the housing bust, and they bought more through the 2010’s.
Redfin Investor Purchases by zip code:
https://www.redfin.com/news/data-center/new-construction/
Interesting investors didn’t slow down in buying properties through the housing bust, and they bought more through the 2010’s.
227
mostly reader
2022 Jun 28, 8:35am
zzyzzx says
In the same area: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6803-E-Main-St-UNIT-3317-Scottsdale-AZ-85251/82387358_zpid/ - 2.4M for 1,497sq.f condo with >1K HOA
And there I was, thinking that Bay Area is expensive.
In the same area: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6803-E-Main-St-UNIT-3317-Scottsdale-AZ-85251/82387358_zpid/ - 2.4M for 1,497sq.f condo with >1K HOA
And there I was, thinking that Bay Area is expensive.
228
1337irr
2022 Jun 28, 8:59am
1337irr
2022 Jun 28, 8:59am
mostly reader says
The Bay Area is becoming cheap...?
zzyzzx says
In the same area: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6803-E-Main-St-UNIT-3317-Scottsdale-AZ-85251/82387358_zpid/ - 2.4M for 1,497sq.f condo with >1K HOA
And there I was, thinking that Bay Area is expensive.
The Bay Area is becoming cheap...?
229
mostly reader
2022 Jun 28, 9:48am
1337irr says
I noticed it few years back that it's not growing as fast as other parts of the country. Now those other parts are catching up apparently. To the point that "people moving out due to remote work" no longer explains it. Bay Area politics is another variable.
The Bay Area is becoming cheap...?
I noticed it few years back that it's not growing as fast as other parts of the country. Now those other parts are catching up apparently. To the point that "people moving out due to remote work" no longer explains it. Bay Area politics is another variable.
230
AD
2022 Jun 28, 10:38am
AD
2022 Jun 28, 10:38am
Eman says
a lot of the investors back in 2009 to 2013 were sharks or bottom feeders...buying for $110,000 a townhome that sold for $275,000 three or four years prior ....
this time around the investors likely used stock market and/or crypto gains, as well as the equity from their homes, to buy second homes to rent out on Air nB, or to rent out long term .... i wonder what percentage of homes bought by investors were made with equity in their other homes ....
...
Interesting investors didn’t slow down in buying properties through the housing bust, and they bought more through the 2010’s.
a lot of the investors back in 2009 to 2013 were sharks or bottom feeders...buying for $110,000 a townhome that sold for $275,000 three or four years prior ....
this time around the investors likely used stock market and/or crypto gains, as well as the equity from their homes, to buy second homes to rent out on Air nB, or to rent out long term .... i wonder what percentage of homes bought by investors were made with equity in their other homes ....
...
235
exfatguy
2022 Jun 30, 10:04am
Take this place in pseudo-fortress 95138 in San Jose asking 1.7mil...
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/7398-Basking-Ridge-Ave-95138/home/12178639
Looks like a nice place, but super tiny lot. This is also the house where there was a rotting orange in the driveway during the open house. The even more rotted orange has now oozed to the curb area. Apparently picking up rotting fruit from the property is not a modern realtor's job.
https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/7398-Basking-Ridge-Ave-95138/home/12178639
Looks like a nice place, but super tiny lot. This is also the house where there was a rotting orange in the driveway during the open house. The even more rotted orange has now oozed to the curb area. Apparently picking up rotting fruit from the property is not a modern realtor's job.
238
zzyzzx
2022 Jul 1, 9:37am
zzyzzx
2022 Jul 1, 9:37am
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-listings-surge-ease-inventory-shortage
Home listings surge as rising mortgage rates push some buyers to sidelines
Homeowners thinking about listing their properties need to be aware of the new competition in the housing market, and keep tabs on local pricing trends. "They need to make sure the asking price doesn't get too high, or too high ahead of the market," Hale said.
Home listings surge as rising mortgage rates push some buyers to sidelines
Homeowners thinking about listing their properties need to be aware of the new competition in the housing market, and keep tabs on local pricing trends. "They need to make sure the asking price doesn't get too high, or too high ahead of the market," Hale said.
240
mostly reader
2022 Jul 1, 10:06am
Just looked up my house on Zillow, it dropped 5% in 1 month. Good (since it's not just my house but rather a reflection of market conditions). I look forward to correction.
243
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 Jul 1, 4:30pm
B.A.C.A.H.
2022 Jul 1, 4:30pm
exfatguy says
Ex, do you live in that development?
Take this place in pseudo-fortress 95138 in San Jose asking 1.7mil...
Looks like a nice place, but super tiny lot
Ex, do you live in that development?
244
AD
2022 Jul 1, 10:09pm
AD
2022 Jul 1, 10:09pm
zzyzzx ,
I copied and pasted below the Zillow link for the above home. They must be in a rush to get out of their cash investment before they lose at least 10% of their equity.
The same home sold for $432,000 in 2013, and for $288,000 in 2001. It should be about $800,000 based on a 5% annual price appreciation since 2001.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1598-Bluebell-Dr-Livermore-CA-94551/24940718_zpid/
AD
I copied and pasted below the Zillow link for the above home. They must be in a rush to get out of their cash investment before they lose at least 10% of their equity.
The same home sold for $432,000 in 2013, and for $288,000 in 2001. It should be about $800,000 based on a 5% annual price appreciation since 2001.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1598-Bluebell-Dr-Livermore-CA-94551/24940718_zpid/
AD
245
Booger
2022 Jul 2, 3:43am
Booger
2022 Jul 2, 3:43am
https://news.postuszero.com/local/87082/Utah-home-flipped-for-1-million-profit-vandalized-by-outraged-local.html
An angry local defaced a Utah home that an investor flipped for $1 million more than they paid 8 months before
An angry local defaced a Utah home that an investor flipped for $1 million more than they paid 8 months before
246
1337irr
2022 Jul 2, 5:51am
1337irr
2022 Jul 2, 5:51am
ad says
I think California specifically the Bay Area is going to crash harder than most parts of the state because of the losses to migration and property tax burden. I need to grab some more popcorn!
zzyzzx ,
I copied and pasted below the Zillow link for the above home. They must be in a rush to get out of their cash investment before they lose at least 10% of their equity.
The same home sold for $432,000 in 2013, and for $288,000 in 2001. It should be about $800,000 based on a 5% annual price appreciation since 2001.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1598-Bluebell-Dr-Livermore-CA-94551/24940718_zpid/
AD
I think California specifically the Bay Area is going to crash harder than most parts of the state because of the losses to migration and property tax burden. I need to grab some more popcorn!
248
Blue
2022 Jul 3, 8:22am
Not enough vs too many! Irrespective of which one is true, gov has clear roll to affect on the problem of this magnitude in a short period.
249
mell
2022 Jul 3, 8:27am
How are there too many homes, the buyer still has little decent inventory to choose from and the good books have been swept up by companies to be rented out forever. Inventory is still very low, but it's definitely higher than the crazy past couple years where the was zero in certain zip codes for months.
251
stereotomy
2022 Jul 3, 10:27am
stereotomy
2022 Jul 3, 10:27am
I use this frequently, when pointing out a bullshit excuse - "Too many notes."
This is a great line from the movie "Amadeus" where the establishment musicians were trying to shut WAM down. The consensus was "too many notes" in his music, and when he asked which ones should be cut, they simply reiterated their criticism.
So now, "too many houses."
Why do they even trot out these laughable pieces of bullshit? They're daring us to call them out because they think we're utter stupid simps.
This is a great line from the movie "Amadeus" where the establishment musicians were trying to shut WAM down. The consensus was "too many notes" in his music, and when he asked which ones should be cut, they simply reiterated their criticism.
So now, "too many houses."
Why do they even trot out these laughable pieces of bullshit? They're daring us to call them out because they think we're utter stupid simps.
252
mell
2022 Jul 3, 11:03am
stereotomy says
The reason there are hardly ever too many houses is unfettered (illegal) immigration and builders not building when the math isn't right, esp. with high inflation in cost of goods.
I use this frequently, when pointing out a bullshit excuse - "Too many notes."
This is a great line from the movie "Amadeus" where the establishment musicians were trying to shut WAM down. The consensus was "too many notes" in his music, and when he asked which ones should be cut, they simply reiterated their criticism.
So now, "too many houses."
Why do they even trot out these laughable pieces of bullshit? They're daring us to call them out because they think we're utter stupid simps.
The reason there are hardly ever too many houses is unfettered (illegal) immigration and builders not building when the math isn't right, esp. with high inflation in cost of goods.
253
AD
2022 Jul 3, 11:23am
AD
2022 Jul 3, 11:23am
Booger says
Booger, so given demographics, etc, there will be a glut or oversupply of homes ? What housing markets does this apply to ? I would expect California as one example of this as its population only grew no more than 5% in 2010 to 2020.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/-tight-housing-market-is-already-overbuilt-one-analyst-says.html
.
Booger, so given demographics, etc, there will be a glut or oversupply of homes ? What housing markets does this apply to ? I would expect California as one example of this as its population only grew no more than 5% in 2010 to 2020.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/12/-tight-housing-market-is-already-overbuilt-one-analyst-says.html
.
254
AD
2022 Jul 3, 11:25am
AD
2022 Jul 3, 11:25am
.
The best way is to not build anymore new homes in states like Connecticut and California, and build a steady supply in states like Florida and Arizona.
So the net number of houses within the USA increases 0.5% to 1% each year in line with the population increase.
.
The best way is to not build anymore new homes in states like Connecticut and California, and build a steady supply in states like Florida and Arizona.
So the net number of houses within the USA increases 0.5% to 1% each year in line with the population increase.
.
255
clambo
2022 Jul 3, 11:34am
There seems to be a boom in Baja California Sur.
15 years ago I saw houses around here for $30,000.
15 years ago I saw houses around here for $30,000.
256
AD
2022 Jul 3, 11:42am
AD
2022 Jul 3, 11:42am
I remember a 2 bedroom, 2 bath on Panama City Beach, FL costing about $1200 a month in 2016. Now with incentives like the first month free, they cost about $1800. So rent went up about $600 or 50% in 6 years (or 7% annually).
Below is one new "luxury" apartment complex (vinyl plank floor, quartz countertop, pool, gym clubhouse, gated community, storm water retention pond with water fountain, etc.) which is offering 1 month free. The listed price is before the discount.
;
,
Below is one new "luxury" apartment complex (vinyl plank floor, quartz countertop, pool, gym clubhouse, gated community, storm water retention pond with water fountain, etc.) which is offering 1 month free. The listed price is before the discount.
;
,
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.