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I’m pausing b/c the risk/reward is not quite there although I see people, who are very smart, are still making deals.
There’s a deal that I’d love to buy for $8M. Seller bought it a couple years ago for $13M and is willing to sell it for $10M now.
GNL says
Eman says
I’m pausing b/c the risk/reward is not quite there although I see people, who are very smart, are still making deals.
There’s a deal that I’d love to buy for $8M. Seller bought it a couple years ago for $13M and is willing to sell it for $10M now.
But Rubicon said RE never goes down. :)
Correct. Residential RE (condo’s and SFH’s) go only up over the long run. Yeah, sure, dips in between but they don’t matter. Most people hold RE for the long run. You don’t buy/sell RE like a stock.
Don’t know anything about commercial. And very little about multi-family.
We live in an inflationary economy. Time does all the heavy lifting through inflation. The rules of the game have been established. You can choose to play, or not. It’s up to you. The same goes with the IRS tax loopholes. This is why real estate investors and business owners pay much lower taxes than W2 employees. Even Warren Buffett said it himself.
As Warren Buffett said
I've paid 17% or less most of my life, even after I high six figures. Only recently have I gone up to about 20-21%. I know people who own property, and work for themselves, I've never found that pay less than I do.
I’ll predict, In the next 5 years I am gonna bring cash to the table
As Warren Buffett said “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” I want value when I buy. It provides a margin of safety if/when the market takes a turn right after I purchase
Eman says
As Warren Buffett said “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” I want value when I buy. It provides a margin of safety if/when the market takes a turn right after I purchase
But Rubicon says buy now, buy always, buy at any price because price and rates don't matter.
GNL says
Eman says
As Warren Buffett said “Price is what you pay. Value is what you get.” I want value when I buy. It provides a margin of safety if/when the market takes a turn right after I purchase
But Rubicon says buy now, buy always, buy at any price because price and rates don't matter.
You could have paid peak price and pay less than someone who buys at a lower price today because rates doubled.
I am glad I got both, pre Covid price and super low rates because I did the opposite of what perma bears told me: they told me the market would crash and I shouldn’t buy. Lol
Don’t be surprised to hear the market is going to crash this year. They tell you this ever year since 2014.
I understand your point about “timing the market” although most of us will try myself included. 😅
“7. Yes, of course inventory matters also but, haven't we agreed that inventory is low because people do not want to give up that sweet sweet low rate?”
No. This makes zero sense:
When a seller sells a house he is traditionally a buyer also.
You sell one: +1 to inventory
And you buy one: -1 to inventory
Net inventory doesn’t move.
Inventory increases if more people die or due to massive unemployment or due to builders building a lot more.
Another thing to consider is that a 7% mortgage rate is excellent when compared to general inflation.
Question: is it better to buy when rates are high or when they're low?
1. You personally don't have to pay those high rates.
2. The house price you pay will be lower because high rates push prices down.
3. When rates eventually fall, you should have increased equity from the falling rates pushing prices up.
And this is when you get a HELOC or cash out refi and pay yourself with other people's money (banks).
WookieMan says
And this is when you get a HELOC or cash out refi and pay yourself with other people's money (banks).
If you are taking this HELOC from your residence, it is not "other people's money." It is a loan you have to pay back with interest, and for most of the country that interest is not deductible because of today's high standard deduction. No different buying that new truck with HELOC than financing it through Ford Motor Credit.
“This is why I've been making fun of Rubicon when he said he didn't care if he lost equity if/when RE goes down. “
You don’t lose equity just because your house price goes down. That’s like noob/rookie level. Homeowners don’t treat their house like a stock and sell shortly after they buy. Do you own a house? Do you tell you friends: my Zillow value went dont a % point. They’d laugh at you. Have you ever heard someone writing off an unrealized loss on a house?
In most cases you make money in RE if you hold on for the long run. Believe me kiddo, nobody is going to go for your “I lost equity BS statements”. Just wake up, stop renting, get yourself a house and forget the noise. No reason to overthink this and make the same noob comment over and over again.
“I’ve seen more people fail because of liquor and leverage — leverage being borrowed money. You really don’t need leverage in this world much. If you’re smart, you’re going to make a lot of money without borrowing.” - Warren Buffett
“More activity does increase inventory.”
More activity gives you more choice. It means more for sales signs. It’s a good thing but it doesn’t move the active inventory number higher. I don’t care if there is a month or two delay in selling and buying. Often, you purchase while you haven’t sold your house yet.
Taking one off the market and adding one doesn’t increase inventory, no matter how you spin it.
NAR’s reported inventory
My friend sent this to me. $750k for this fixer upper in East San Jose, blue collar working class neighborhood.
Eman says
My friend sent this to me. $750k for this fixer upper in East San Jose, blue collar working class neighborhood.
Its appreciated about 5% annually since 1998. I recall Professor Shiller stating the long term (+50 years) median annual appreciation is 4%.
.
That’s all there is to it. It’s not rocket science.
With HELOC at 8%…ish now, it no longer makes sense to take the risk. This puts a liquidity constraint to the real estate market.
This. I rented my whole life until last year. I'll NEVER go back. Owning is bomb but I also bought beneath my means in an amazing area and I have lots of cash to do stuff to the house. I get to modify my castle just the way I want it and no one (landlord) can easily take it away from me as long as I pay my fixed payments. Being a landlord's bitch is emasculating.
Renting is a lose/lose if you need stability. I'm not trying to change your mind. I'm just saying as an owner, it doesn't make sense to me having done both. You do you. Fact is there are cheaper places to own by a long shot outside of CA or even AZ or any West of the Rockies state, CO included.
One penny, which compounds every day for a month (30 days), will be over $1M. The power of compound interest. The power of control and leverage. Let time do the heavy lifting. It’s like planting a tree. It’s a one time effort while we get to harvest it for the rest of our lives.
Eman says
One penny, which compounds every day for a month (30 days), will be over $1M. The power of compound interest. The power of control and leverage. Let time do the heavy lifting. It’s like planting a tree. It’s a one time effort while we get to harvest it for the rest of our lives.
Actually, it's 10 million! But what's an extra zero between friends? :-)
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net
Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.
Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.