patrick.net

Video in shadow inventory:
https://youtu.be/_emO4Dl8sUM?si=zROkKlM_X9ZYLVrj

This is the typical townhome in Panama City Beach, Florida and not within a 5 minute walk of the beach

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1734-Annabellas-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/121152666_zpid/

Notice it was listed for $345k and now listed at $295k ... same townhome could have sold for a peak price of $330,000 around early 2022...

So prices are dropping if this is indicative of that ... as Logan Matahari said the housing market is unhealthy as far as high prices and low inventory ...

there is going to be more liquidity and transactions if prices fall at least 15% to 20% below peak price level (set around early 2022) ...

....

Booger says

Video in shadow inventory:
https://youtu.be/_emO4Dl8sUM?si=zROkKlM_X9ZYLVrj

at 15 minutes into video, so okay DR Horton is sitting on unsold and unoccupied housing ... how many units exist in Austin and and the rest of the USA ?

They just sitting on homes until mortgages rates get to the "magic spot" or "sweet spot" of around 5.5% ? That way they can buy down the rate 4 discount points, and its at a favorable 4.5% rate.

they just keeping their "powder dry" long enough until its a good time to sell this "shadow, unoccupied or hidden inventory" at the current desired price ?

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ad says

at 15 minutes into video, so okay DR Horton is sitting on unsold and unoccupied housing ... how many units exist in Austin and and the rest of the USA ?

This is a hipster market. One of the extremely few areas that over built. That does not make a national market. Austin has been a shit hole for a decade plus anyway, not sure why anyone would choose to live there. If you want normal stats look at Montgomery, AL. Looking at CA or hipster cities is the worst possible metic to watch.

If you want a gauge on the market outside of coastal areas, look there. Otherwise you're blind. Middle income people in the middle of the country don't change all that much. Frankly because we're not idiots if I'm being honest. National markets are made up by dip shits on the coasts. Then scream all is bad. There needs to be some growing yup happening. It's not.

Booger says

Video in shadow inventory:
https://youtu.be/_emO4Dl8sUM?si=zROkKlM_X9ZYLVrj

This hidden or shadow inventory would at least show up as housing starts (i.e., foundation laid).

We were on a good pace recovering since the collapse of March 2009 but then housing starts collapsed again somewhat after April 2022 when interest rates started to rise :-(

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST

We need a major uptick or increase in housing starts for housing that will be ready to be moved in within 6 months.

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CCCP_trollbot says

Yeah, if you missed the boat in RE it’s of course manipulation and bad bad corporations. Talking to conspiracy theorists is like talking to religious fanatics. They have all the answers, know everything and it’s always someone else’s fault.

What would have happened in the government didn't bailout the the banks that sold collateralized debt obligations (CDO's) in 2007 and 2008? The banks would have gone bankrupt, and the housing market would have crashed.

But the ENTIRE NATION bailed out the BANKS, not the people who purchased homes they couldn't afford...

We don't have a free market system, we have fascist economic system.

richwicks says

But the ENTIRE NATION bailed out the BANKS, not the people who purchased homes they couldn't afford...

I agree the banks were bailed out. To say homeowners weren't bailed out is a bit dishonest. I literally helped 100's of people dump their houses during the crash. No BK. They could start a new chapter with a credit ding and 2-4 year waiting period to buy again with financing. We made money, the banks lost less and homeowners could move on quicker. Some people bought a month or two later with cash. No one really lost unless you're mentally unstable and not paying debt makes you want to kill yourself. It's a business transaction. Who cares. Millions of people file BK all the time and recover and then make millions after. It's not a death sentence.

Reality is a lot of purchasers made shit decisions and bought something they couldn't afford. You can blame lenders/banks (valid by the way), but at the end of the day it's pretty god damn obvious what someone can afford based on income. If you make $50k, you cannot afford a $500k home. It's basic math. Those people were able to short sell their homes and not get completely wiped out. The banks did eat shit on the whole deal, their own making of course, but I don't know what the alternative would have been?

I hate generational debates, but this lays at the feet of the boomers. It's really not even a debate.

WookieMan says

I agree the banks were bailed out. To say homeowners weren't bailed out is a bit dishonest. I literally helped 100's of people dump their houses during the crash.

Yeah we had a townhome that sold for around $275,000 in 2007 and then in 2011 it sold for $130,000. The guy that bought it in 2011 loves to gloat how he is a great investor.

The mortgage provider or note holder got bailed out and consequently the previous also got bailed out.

And it led to many people exploiting that on both sides, the irresponsible home owners and the scumbags like this guy who likes to gloat.

I remember seeing on the Federal Reserve St Louis website a graph that displayed about around a 10% foreclosure rate at the peak of the housing crisis.

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In California how many people can afford a $5000 a month or more payment? Thousands of homes have been bought at these prices with an extremely high payment. Interest rates have to change at some point maybe after government inflates more air into the economy making everyone poorer.
Currently the RE industry is quietly settling in court for all the damages they have done. Nobody wins but the system

beershrine says

Currently the RE industry is quietly settling in court for all the damages they have done. Nobody wins but the system

Links to news about this please.

beershrine says

In California how many people can afford a $5000 a month or more payment? Thousands of homes have been bought at these prices with an extremely high payment. Interest rates have to change at some point maybe after government inflates more air into the economy making everyone poorer.
Currently the RE industry is quietly settling in court for all the damages they have done. Nobody wins but the system

Well, if you’re being financially responsible/reasonable that $5,000 monthly home payment equates to a monthly take home of $20,000. That way you’re not house poor and are investing for your retirement. So that would be someone or more likely a couple grossing $340,000+ a year in CA.

https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/16xwrk7/newly_built_apartment_complexes_that_are_mostly/

Newly built apartment complexes that are mostly vacant

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-sellers-drop-asking-prices/

More Home Sellers Drop Their Asking Price As Mortgage Rates Hit Two-Decade High

ForcedTQ says

Well, if you’re being financially responsible/reasonable that $5,000 monthly home payment equates to a monthly take home of $20,000. That way you’re not house poor and are investing for your retirement. So that would be someone or more likely a couple grossing $340,000+ a year in CA.

Absolutely. Income and payment. It's basic math. People made some shit decisions in 2006(ish) and earlier. A bank isn't giving you at $5k/mo loan on $70k/yr income like they did then. It was stupid. Adults and bankers failed at math for a decade basically. I don't think we'll see a dumber decision in our lifetimes.

Weren't they kind of encouraged to make these loans?

GNL says

Weren't they kind of encouraged to make these loans?

Yes. And? It was stupid. Not sure the point. It was math and they knew people couldn't pay. Builders went ape shit and built huge subdivisions no one needed. It will go down as one of the dumbest things in history.

In my area/region, selling out 20-30 homes in a subdivision is unheard of. They were knocking out 200-500 home subdivisions in the early 2000's. We overbuild and no longer have the trades people to keep up with the building we need. So we're seeing inflation. It will take a decade and maybe more.

Definitely. Our system is designed to reward risk, as the worse case scenario is a bailout. That is, if you're a banker...

WookieMan says

GNL says

Weren't they kind of encouraged to make these loans?

Yes. And? It was stupid. Not sure the point. It was math and they knew people couldn't pay. Builders went ape shit and built huge subdivisions no one needed. It will go down as one of the dumbest things in history.

In my area/region, selling out 20-30 homes in a subdivision is unheard of. They were knocking out 200-500 home subdivisions in the early 2000's. We overbuild and no longer have the trades people to keep up with the building we need. So we're seeing inflation. It will take a decade and maybe more.

The point is, it seems like it was fraud from the start. I'm thinking that most of the big things that happen are fraudulent. Covid anyone?

WookieMan says

GNL says

Weren't they kind of encouraged to make these loans?

Yes. And? It was stupid. Not sure the point

The point is most people are controlled by propaganda, and everybody that isn't suffers for it. We either have to participate in the scam or avoid it.

Why can't we just stop the fucking scam? People need to be prosecuted. There were laws CLEARLY violated in the 2007 and 2008 "mortgage crisis". NOBODY went to jail. Stop fining the companies, and start putting these assholes in jail, and if our government won't do that, get rid of our government because they are part of the crime.

It's legal now to be a criminal, if you can pay the fine, and where does the fine go to? The collaborators in our government.

It's a criminal syndicate. It's been this way my ENTIRE adult life. I'm sick of it.

richwicks says

The point is most people are controlled by propaganda, and everybody that isn't suffers for it. We either have to participate in the scam or avoid it.

Why can't we just stop the fucking scam? People need to be prosecuted. There were laws CLEARLY violated in the 2007 and 2008 "mortgage crisis". NOBODY went to jail. Stop fining the companies, and start putting these assholes in jail, and if our government won't do that, get rid of our government because they are part of the crime.

It's legal now to be a criminal, if you can pay the fine, and where does the fine go to? The collaborators in our government.

It's a criminal syndicate. It's been this way my ENTIRE adult life. I'm sick of it.

Yeah, I don't see how people don't see the point. You can lead them right over to the pile of shit, stick their nose right into it and they still don't get the point.

WookieMan says

I hate generational debates, but this lays at the feet of the boomers. It's really not even a debate.

Why?

Aren't our decrepit leaders from the silent generation?

Is everyone born after 1964 not responsible for anything?

The people in power are represented by all the generations. They love it when we divide ourselves by characteristics that have little to do with who fucked up our world. The real question is, "What are you going to do?"

Today's rate is 7.3%. It recently peaked at 8.1%.
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ad says

Today's rate is 7.3%. It recently peaked at 8.1%.
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@ad, are you posting this because you think we're headed to 5%? You've been saying this for a little while now. What makes you think we're going to hit 5-5.5% in 2024?

GNL says

The point is, it seems like it was fraud from the start. I'm thinking that most of the big things that happen are fraudulent. Covid anyone?

You guys realize that buyers/borrowers were the problem. There are plenty of drug dealers that give out illegal drugs. We know they're illegal and it's obvious why. Taking out a loan 20x's your income with no documentation is absolute retardation on all levels. Blame the banks, I'm fine with that. You're an idiot if you get a loan that is 50% plus of your pretax income. So many businesses and people fucked up yet everyone wants to blame one entity.

You're fighting an invisible enemy at least with housing. There were so many layers of shit you cannot simply just blame one. Banks, realtors, borrowers, etc. Everyone fucked up around 2006. Not just one entity. Everyone got bailed out including people that didn't foreclose, bk or short sell. I made my living for 5 years in that market. I can promise I know more than anyone here. This wasn't just meh, fuck the banks. Hence why I laugh at people thinking the same thing is happening now. It's not. Actually live it. Know families that lost their homes. Know bankers with kids that fucking hung themselves or blew their brains out that don't work for BOA and Chase.

Sorry. Difficult to sit here and read people write pure trash about something they know nothing about.

Sell when everybody is talking about permanent plateaus and buy now or be locked out forever and haw haw I brought earlier nyah nyah.

Buy when there is blood on the streets.

People won't be able to delay life-driven changes for years and years. Time cannot be brought back with money.

Here goes wookie wookie again. He knows everyone and everything. The FACT is there was fraud. Show me where I blamed the banks. Fuck. You just can't stay away from acting like some kind of king. You constantly project. And if you don't think banks are connected and knew full well they were putting people in shit loans, your head needs some examination. They had to have known they were going to get bailed out. Man, you really should think a little. If banks conjure $$ out of thin air, WHICH THEY DO, the buck stops there imo. UNLESS government forces them to do something against the interest of a stable monetary system. You think small. Richwicks and I think just a wee bit bigger. As does Patrick also.

GNL says

The FACT is there was fraud.

Yes. Borrowers taking money they couldn't afford. Banks knew it was unaffordable. Appraisers inflating values. I saw it all. You didn't. That's fact. Keep taking pictures and stay in your lane. You have no idea about real estate and especially what happened during the housing bubble. No one does here honestly.

When you've dealt with over 2k transactions give me a wake up call. Until then I won't take anyone here seriously about real estate. I'm kind of getting sick of it. No one here has the slightest clue what the housing bust was. Just hot takes from idiots that you bought into. It wasn't one entity that lead to it. There are so many layers. But hey, a bunch of Monday morning quarterbacks with zero real estate experience know it all and I don't. It's kind of cute. Keep thinking you know more than I do. My life ain't hurting based off of how much you all bitch and whine.

GNL says

ad, are you posting this because you think we're headed to 5%? You've been saying this for a little while now. What makes you think we're going to hit 5-5.5% in 2024?

GNL, to answer your other question, you are right as I may not know if my selling agent is withholding bids for my home. I could find out if the buyers agent came to my home and told me this.

Mortgage rates are mostly based on inflation which is an indicator of how well the economy is doing, and also somewhat pegged to the 10 Year Treasury.

So with inflation falling, I see mortgage rates eventually catching up and falling as well. There is some lag or hysteresis with this.

Very Respectfully, AD

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WookieMan says

You're an idiot if you get a loan that is 50% plus of your pretax income

WookieMan says

You have no idea about real estate and especially what happened during the housing bubble. No one does here honestly.

There's the doubling down on stupid I told you about. Wookie knows everything and everyone else here knows nothing. You haven't told me one damn thing I didn't already know about the GFC. And even more projection. You don't even realize what you're doing and have been doing for years. You inject things into conversations that weren't even said by others as if that's what they said. I've got you pegged. You are a narcissist. And dishonest.

ad says

GNL says

ad, are you posting this because you think we're headed to 5%? You've been saying this for a little while now. What makes you think we're going to hit 5-5.5% in 2024?

GNL, to answer your other question, you are right as I may not know if my selling agent is withholding bids for my home. I could find out if the buyers agent came to my home and told me this.

Mortgage rates are mostly based on inflation which is an indicator of how well the economy is doing, and also somewhat pegged to the 10 Year Treasury.

So with inflation falling, I see mortgage rates eventually catching up and falling as well. There is some lag or hysteresis with this.

Very Respectfully, AD

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No worries, I was just seeing if I could learn something from you.

GNL says

No worries, I was just seeing if I could learn something from you.

I am 0% worried whether you like my posts or not, or if you learn something from me. The only one that cares or worries about that is you.

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ad says

GNL says

No worries, I was just seeing if I could learn something from you.

I am 0% worried whether you like my posts or not, or if you learn something from me. The only one that cares or worries about that is you.

I've upset you? I meant that I wanted to understand why you thought rates would go there in 2024. I'm operating from a position of curiosity.

GNL says

I've upset you? I meant that I wanted to understand why you thought rates would go there in 2024. I'm operating from a position of curiosity.

I am not upset. I just care enough to tell you I don't care if you learn anything. Seems like you are the one that is very touchy and edgy.

I think rates may drop in 2024 even with a tight labor market persisting.

And I think with rates dropping its a good time to start looking at investing in bond funds like Vanguard Total Bond Fund ETF (Ticker: BND).

A 1% drop in a rate results in a 1% increase in price for each year of duration, so that would mean a 5 year bond would increase by 5% in value.

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ad says

GNL says

I've upset you? I meant that I wanted to understand why you thought rates would go there in 2024. I'm operating from a position of curiosity.

I am not upset. I just care enough to tell you I don't care if you learn anything. Seems like you are the one that is very touchy and edgy.

I think rates may drop in 2024 even with a tight labor market persisting.

And I think with rates dropping its a good time to start looking at investing in bond funds like Vanguard Total Bond Fund ETF (Ticker: BND).

A 1% drop in a rate results in a 1% increase in price for each year of duration, so that would mean a 5 year bond would increase by 5% in value.

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Well, I appreciate you answering me. I also wanted to make sure you didn't think I was being rude to you is all. I don't care if you don't care either. So there. :)

GNL says

I don't care if you don't care either.

I don't care if you don't care if I don't care, boy

...

GNL says

Wookie knows everything and everyone else here knows nothing. You haven't told me one damn thing I didn't already know about the GFC. And even more projection.

GNL says

No worries, I was just seeing if I could learn something from you.

You literally don't know what Ad is even talking about currently in this thread. Yet you have knowledge about the housing crisis and how it went down? Take the pictures and stay in your lane. You're no different than an inspector trying to justify your role in real estate. Except now a basic phone can take photos as good as you can. Enjoy your industry while it last. Brokers are dip shits, but they can do your job with the phone in their pocket.

Make your money off brokers as long as you can, but don't think anyone respects a thing you have to say about real estate. You don't work in real estate. You work in photography. I have a doctorate in real estate compared to your high school drop out knowledge. I don't care if I'm younger, over half my life was involved in real estate as young at 14. Let me know the last subdivision you helped develop? Let me know the process and what needs to get done. I was doing that at 16. You're throwing darts and they're completely missing the board. You get insecure and defensive and fall to the level of name calling. Just because a narcissist out games you doesn't make me wrong. You simply don't know real estate and I'm a cocky ass hole. I don't give a fuck because I know what the hell I'm talking about after you ask question after question about basic real estate stuff. I'll own narcissist, you can own idiot.

Onvacation says

Aren't our decrepit leaders from the silent generation?

No, MOST of them are boomers.

The Silent Generation is... mostly silent.

Wookie's a property developer now. Haha, you Crack me up. Your bloated sense of self grows every time we banter. Understanding what happened and how it happened ain't that hard to understand. You have 0 insider knowledge. And "knowing" what the fed is going to do with rates at any time would be a great gift enabling riches. Ad doesn't know where rates will go and that's what I asked him. I think @ceffer was the ONLY person here that called higher rates correctly while people, maybe you(?), we're shitting on him. You only know one thing about me. If agents didn't need my business (geeze, do you really not know that some agents still can barely register on a website) then why does my phone ring? My photographers make $300-$400 a day. You're more clueless than I thought.