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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   606,218 views  5,680 comments

by AD   ➕follow (1)   💰tip   ignore  

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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4335   AD   2024 Feb 17, 7:39pm  

Eman says


AD says

Eman says

Which shithole has households needing to make an average $500k/year?

Mister Eman, third-world shitholes have two-classes only...rich and poor, or the have's and the have nots.. hence California is a third-world shithole

Very Respectfully, AD

Which third world shithole has this household income number can you share?


There are plenty of shithole countries where the rich are the only ones who can afford to buy decent homes. California is identical to them in regards to this matter, Mister Eman.

.
4336   WookieMan   2024 Feb 17, 8:21pm  

AD says

There are plenty of shithole countries where the rich are the only ones who can afford to buy decent homes. California is identical to them in regards to this matter, Mister Eman.

.

Not even countries. States. Since I know the area and have literally probably driven by this house. This is the Panhandle. AD probably knows the area possibly. This is a $3M house easy in CA that close to the beach. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/703-Sandpiper-Cir-Destin-FL-32541/45972452_zpid/

I think there's a disconnect on the discussion. I can make $500k in the panhandle no problem or CA. I can get this house for 70% less than it would be in CA. Good climate. Slight hurricane risk. No earthquakes. And the BIGGIE. NO INCOME TAX.
4337   Eman   2024 Feb 17, 9:05pm  

You’ve lost me Wookie. If I recalled correctly, you previously mentioned you and your wife made more than $100/hour. Now you claim you can make $500k in the panhandle no problem or CA? Maybe I misunderstood somewhere somehow?

If CA is such a shithole, why are there so many VC’s and billionaires live here? Can you guys share your 2 cents? Maybe these VC’s and billionaires don’t travel and don't know any better?

@AD, how many Patneters do you recall who called CA a shithole?

I travel 6-8 times a year, in state, out of state and out of the country. I don’t share this stuff because people call it “bragging”.

It’s interesting that I started investing in real estate in 2009 so about 15 years. I found Patnet shortly after I started investing in real estate. I’ve lived in the Bay Area for almost 35 years. Funny that I’ve always liked real estate and started to learn about Bay Area real estate market since. I grew up during the “Tom Vu” era if you know who that guy is.

Since early 2000’s, I’ve traveled to different states and checked out real estate there for investment purposes. Each single time, I came back home, I felt I should be investing here. The grass is NOT greener on the other side.

Around 2015, after my biz partner and I have successfully invested in over more than handful apartment buildings around SJSU, we started to look elsewhere and see if we could replicate our biz model. We traveled to Fresno and checked out buildings around FSU. We came back and told ourselves “we have a great biz model here, let’s stay here. The grass is NOT greener on the other side.” Occasionally, we got intrigued by the cheapness of real estate elsewhere so we traveled and wrote off the trips. Again, we came back home and said forget about it. The grass is NOT greener on the other side.
4338   Eman   2024 Feb 17, 9:11pm  

My friend just shared this stat for the counties around the Bay Area, where some of you call them “shithole”. Just for giggles. 😂


4339   AD   2024 Feb 17, 9:59pm  

Eman says

AD, how many Patneters do you recall who called CA a shithole?


I think GNL and Wookie, for starters

I think Patrick and Rich Wicks also have made comments about it being a shithole.

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4340   Eman   2024 Feb 17, 11:46pm  

Let this sink in.


4341   AD   2024 Feb 18, 12:14am  

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/ETOTALUSQ176N

see above link, as the estimate is about 146 million housing units in the United States

compare to a population of about 335 million

I assume the population figure includes illegal immigrants as that is used to determine number of Congressional seats, so California benefits from that

I am not sure if the housing units count includes people who may rent their basement.

For example, they converted their finished basement to its own apartment or accessory dwelling unit, and it does not show up on local property tax records. This is common in places like Nassau County (Long Island, NY).
4342   WookieMan   2024 Feb 18, 1:23am  

Eman says

You’ve lost me Wookie. If I recalled correctly, you previously mentioned you and your wife made more than $100/hour. Now you claim you can make $500k in the panhandle no problem or CA? Maybe I misunderstood somewhere somehow?

You didn't read dude. I'm saying you can make $500k in the panhandle AND buy a house 10X's cheaper AND no state income taxes. You're the one that brought up $500k income.

Eman says

I travel 6-8 times a year, in state, out of state and out of the country. I don’t share this stuff because people call it “bragging”.

What? Talking about travel is bragging? Nah, I'll just talk about my real estate prowess? Jesus Christ dude the hypocrisy of what you said is hysterical. I'd rather hear about people's adventures and not a 20 unit building.

If your income is passive, traveling 6-8 times a year is a joke. You can work from anywhere. You still haven't mentioned where. It's not bragging. It's sharing experiences. I'd love to share my knowledge of the USIV's. Doing math on a building is for 7th graders.

Part of me is starting to think you're a fake if I'm being honest. Posting links to websites doesn't mean you bought or sold anything. Post a photo. All you do is fuck with people. I've lived the RE life and everyone is a liar. EVERYONE. I'm picking up on it here.
4343   gabbar   2024 Feb 18, 5:14am  

WookieMan says

I've lived the RE life and everyone is a liar. EVERYONE.

I am not in real estate but I don't disbelieve this statement. It ties into Patrick's sticker, "Debt is slavery"
4344   WookieMan   2024 Feb 18, 5:34am  

gabbar says

WookieMan says

I've lived the RE life and everyone is a liar. EVERYONE.

I am not in real estate but I don't disbelieve this statement. It ties into Patrick's sticker, "Debt is slavery"

Debt is necessary. Fact of life. My issue with Eman's comment is travel is bragging and talking about real estate wins isn't bragging? Doesn't compute at all.

I'd rather teach people about new places to visit and not a building or property someone "supposedly" made money off of. No one here is buying the building or renting in it. You might go to a place a user here has mentioned and get some insight. If I went to Napa I'd reach out to users here. I know mell is in wine country now.

I don't need to know about a RE deal in CA that I'd never buy or deal with. Congrats on the gains, but that's a bigger brag than talking about travel. I don't think Eman travels. He hasn't even mentioned a location.
4345   AD   2024 Feb 18, 10:26am  

gabbar says

It ties into Patrick's sticker, "Debt is slavery"


You can make it work for you such as you get a 3% rate mortgage for 30 years instead of paying cash for around $200,000 townhome.

That $200,000 in cash can earn conservatively about 3% annual real return in a 60 bond/40 fund stocks while the townhome's average annual appreciation (after housing inflation) is 1%.

.
4346   HeadSet   2024 Feb 18, 11:31am  

AD says

gabbar says


It ties into Patrick's sticker, "Debt is slavery"


You can make it work for you such as you get a 3% rate mortgage for 30 years instead of paying cash for around $200,000 townhome.

That $200,000 in cash can earn conservatively about 3% annual real return in a 60 bond/40 fund stocks while the townhome's average annual appreciation (after housing inflation) is 1%.

.

I think the "debt is slavery" refers to consumer debt. Using debt to buy rental properties or other income producing assets is outside the scope.

As far as your personal home, if you are in a 3% mortgage environment, then CD and other safe investments are paying like .5% or even less. Investing in financials, even your "conservative" fund, can go up, down, or sideways. If you can pay cash for the house, you are getting a guaranteed return on that 3%. Also note that mortgages are not without closing costs, as the typical borrower must pay an origination fee and points. Also, if you are buying from a builder, the price goes down if you pay cash. The "annual appreciation" is not a factor, since you get that whether you pay cash or borrow.
4347   gabbar   2024 Feb 18, 12:37pm  

AD says

You can make it work for you such as you get a 3% rate mortgage for 30 years instead of paying cash for around $200,000 townhome.

That $200,000 in cash can earn conservatively about 3% annual real return in a 60 bond/40 fund stocks while the townhome's average annual appreciation (after housing inflation) is 1%.

Touche. Maybe the problem is the way I was brought up, in a slightly different culture. I understand what you are saying though.
4348   AD   2024 Feb 18, 1:57pm  

gabbar says

AD says

You can make it work for you such as you get a 3% rate mortgage for 30 years instead of paying cash for around $200,000 townhome.

That $200,000 in cash can earn conservatively about 3% annual real return in a 60 bond/40 fund stocks while the townhome's average annual appreciation (after housing inflation) is 1%.

Touche. Maybe the problem is the way I was brought up, in a slightly different culture. I understand what you are saying though.


Please elaborate more as far as your culture and the way you were brought up.

I have seen before whereas someone gets a credit card loan of $15,000 for 0% for 12 months and invests that money in something relatively safe earnings 5% in one year.

.
4349   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Feb 18, 5:47pm  

AD says


There are plenty of shithole countries where the rich are the only ones who can afford to buy decent homes.

California is identical to one of them in regards to this matter, Mister Eman
4350   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Feb 18, 5:56pm  

WookieMan says


a bigger brag than talking about travel. I don't think Eman travels. He hasn't even mentioned a location.

I've been to lots of places in different parts of the world. Within the protective bubble of being a tourist, or being a Road Warrior in "Tech", we feel "right at home" in those protective bubbles. Those sorts of travel aren't impactful at all to our world views except for fun and maybe some confirmation bias.

Much more diversity to see just traveling to sh*thole locales near home, for me in Northern California, including neighbor'hoods of slummy section eight walk up apartments and SFH's with bars on windows, both types where Prop-13 landlords exploit folks, and if they're section 8, exploit taxpayers too. Right here at home. Some of these within walking distance of residences of E-man's billionaires.

We don't need no Cool-And-Hip Jet-Setting to "travel the world".

I did more eye-opening "traveling" driving for meals on wheels in my own community, than I ever did with my Cool-And-Hip Tourism or elite Techie Road Warrioring.
4351   Eman   2024 Feb 18, 6:01pm  

WookieMan says

I think there's a disconnect on the discussion. I can make $500k in the panhandle no problem or CA. I can get this house for 70% less than it would be in CA. Good climate. Slight hurricane risk. No earthquakes. And the BIGGIE. NO INCOME TAX.

This was what you wrote. That was why I said you lost me, and you said I didn’t read. 🤔
4352   Eman   2024 Feb 18, 6:17pm  

Wookie proved that he knows everything…again.

Whenever I travel, there must be a purpose, be it to visit relatives, for business, for the kids, or to watch tennis tournaments. I don’t travel to “relax”. I can do that right here at home or plenty of places in the Bay Area. The ocean, the Bay, the mountains, the hills, they’re all right here with great places to eat.

I see the ladies in my sphere tend to travel for bragging rights. I tag along, but don’t enjoy it most of the time.

This site used to be a real estate site. We used to talk about real estate. We shared how to get deals, cycle of the housing market, etc…I share what I know for the benefits of the readers who may choose to go down the real estate path and gain financial freedom, or build wealth. I don’t make a nickel from anyone. Feel offended with my posts, don’t have to read them.

It’s interesting for calling me a liar while someone on this site offered to invest half a mil with me. 🤔
4353   Eman   2024 Feb 18, 6:19pm  

gabbar says

WookieMan says


I've lived the RE life and everyone is a liar. EVERYONE.

I am not in real estate but I don't disbelieve this statement. It ties into Patrick's sticker, "Debt is slavery"

I’ve witnessed both sides actually. It seems like where you and Wookie reside, there are only crooked agents and brokers. What does this make your area then? 😬
4354   Eman   2024 Feb 18, 6:24pm  

AD says

Eman says


AD, how many Patneters do you recall who called CA a shithole?


I think GNL and Wookie, for starters

I think Patrick and Rich Wicks also have made comments about it being a shithole.

.

It’s interesting people who don’t live here call CA a shithole. If the people who live here call it a shithole while they still live here, what would that say about them? What a miserable way to go through life. We only have once chance at this life. Make it worth it.

I love my life. I love my wife. I love my family, and I love this country.
4355   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Feb 18, 6:42pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

AD says

There are plenty of shithole countries where the rich are the only ones who can afford to buy decent homes.

California is identical to one of them in regards to this matter, Mister Eman

Eman says

It’s interesting people who don’t live here call CA a shithole.


And people who do live here call it that too. Not just me. Ask Ceffer.

I am a lifelong resident of the sh*thole California Republic. It's the only home I've known, I still love living here, because of family and friends and the amenities that I can enjoy as a retiree.

And it's a sh*thole, homie.
4356   Eman   2024 Feb 18, 7:06pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

B.A.C.A.H. says


AD says

There are plenty of shithole countries where the rich are the only ones who can afford to buy decent homes.

California is identical to one of them in regards to this matter, Mister Eman

Eman says


It’s interesting people who don’t live here call CA a shithole.


And people who do live here call it that too. Not just me. Ask Ceffer.

I am a lifelong resident of the shthole California Republic. It's the only home I've known, I still love living here, because of family and friends and the amenities that I can enjoy as a retiree.

And it's a sh
thole, homie.

Is the Bay Area a shithole to you, or only San Jose, where you live, or the entire state? When did it become a shithole, or has it always been one? Just curious.
4357   GNL   2024 Feb 18, 7:15pm  

I like Eman, he is always willing to talk. That's also why I like Wookie, Patrick, Richwicks etc.
4358   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Feb 18, 7:24pm  

Eman says


Is the Bay Area a shithole to you, or only San Jose, where you live, or the entire state? When did it become a shithole, or has it always been one? Just curious.

Lifelong resident, homie. I got homies all over the state, been all over. It mostly looks like the Bay Area does minus the elites you cite. LA's got it's elites, too. Lower cost of living outside our Elite Cool And Hip Bay Area scales with the wages.

Like you, I like living in my sh*thole. But unlike you, I don't have a chip on my shoulder about it. I don't need to prove nuthin to others, "back home" (oops, this is "back home" for me) nor to others anywhere else, nor even inside my own mind to my own self.

I think Ceffer would share some of my thoughts in this regard.
4359   Eman   2024 Feb 18, 7:25pm  

GNL says

I like Eman, he is always willing to talk. That's also why I like Wookie, Patrick, Richwicks etc.

Talk about willing to talk. I used my real name when I was on BiggerPockets (BP). Out of nowhere, I got a couple text messages like this late last year. Crazy. Just have to pay it forward.



4360   Eman   2024 Feb 18, 7:31pm  



4361   Eman   2024 Feb 18, 7:44pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Eman says



Is the Bay Area a shithole to you, or only San Jose, where you live, or the entire state? When did it become a shithole, or has it always been one? Just curious.

Lifelong resident, homie. I got homies all over the state, been all over. It mostly looks like the Bay Area does minus the elites you cite. LA's got it's elites, too. Lower cost of living outside our Elite Cool And Hip Bay Area scales with the wages.

Like you, I like living in my sh*thole. But unlike you, I don't have a chip on my shoulder about it. I don't need to prove nuthin to others, "back home" (oops, this is "back home" for me) nor to others anywhere else, nor even inside my own mind to my own self.

I think Ceffer would share some of my thoughts in this regard.

I don’t have any chip on my shoulder. Being around various real estate groups/meetups, it seems like everyone wants out of their W2. I was fortunate enough to find a mentor when I started out. I was fortunate enough to get out of the W2 life. My mentor believes in sharing and paying it forward so I’m continuing the tradition as the folks before me.

In this REI community, we’re bonded together by the same goal. That is to gain financial freedom, get out of the W2 life and spend our time however we wish. We don’t sell anything. We share knowledge. Friendships turn into partnerships. In fact, some have found love in this circle.

I’ve learned that life is a mirror of ourselves. I’ve also learned that our mind is powerful. If we think we can, or can’t, we’re both right. Thanks Mr. Henry Ford. The Bay Area specifically, and CA generally, are not perfect, but they’re far from shitholes IMO. The politics definitely suck though.
4362   AD   2024 Feb 18, 8:58pm  



4363   HeadSet   2024 Feb 19, 6:46am  



Another example of blaming the "market" for a government caused event. That "unlimited capital" comes from low down government loans and other subsidies. Take away government backed loans and houses would return to being bought as shelters. If people had to save up a 20% down payment, then houses would be more modest and practical. Also, would not need an inflation hedge if the government did not overspend and print every year.
4364   WookieMan   2024 Feb 19, 6:54am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Like you, I like living in my sh*thole. But unlike you, I don't have a chip on my shoulder about it. I don't need to prove nuthin to others, "back home" (oops, this is "back home" for me) nor to others anywhere else, nor even inside my own mind to my own self.

I think Ceffer would share some of my thoughts in this regard.

I don't shit on CA residents. I'm 1,500 miles away or whatever. I honestly feel bad for you guys. Some are tied to the state because of family and that's important and I respect that. Being from a similar state and probably better on paper I feel the pain. So i travel.

I live exponentially cheaper than a CA resident. So I can drop $20k/yr on travel and see new things. Plus my family is here. It's a win win. Cost of living is sooooooo much lower and that's in a blue state. I don't really care about weather. I just went fly fishing in Montana in the winter. Snowboarding. Hikes on ice. I could have gone to the beach. I have options to have my fun because I don't live in an expensive shit hole socially. Weather ain't worth it is all I'm saying and the politics and other shit that goes along with it.
4365   GNL   2024 Feb 19, 8:16am  

Isn't it also tough to leave California because they find ways to tax you even after you've left? Fuck that.
4366   WookieMan   2024 Feb 19, 9:41am  

GNL says

Isn't it also tough to leave California because they find ways to tax you even after you've left? Fuck that.

I've heard that, but I don't know that to be fact. You could be right though. I've heard it enough to believe it.

13% top end is pure retardation on income taxes. NYC is close with city taxes, so not picking on CA. Either way it doesn't make sense to live there. I get the climate, but I'm not dropping $30k for climate.
4368   Blue   2024 Feb 19, 10:50am  

B.A.C.A.H. says


Like you, I like living in my sh*thole. But unlike you, I don't have a chip on my shoulder about it. I don't need to prove nuthin to others

Met a group of folks who live around Fremont yesterday. They are worried more lately as they see quite a number of illegals on the streets, larger crowed in places like Home-Depot parking lots. A friend of one person called 911 at 2:30am after someone knocking their door. Police advised him not to open the door and call back if anything happens. Most of them doesn't seems to be optimistic about the future in terms of safety. Very likely Bay Area will become bigger sh sooner than later on its trajectory though no commie would admit it.
4369   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Feb 19, 10:51am  

GNL says

Isn't it also tough to leave California because they find ways to tax you even after you've left? Fuck that.


I moved away about 1.5 years ago and they aren't taxing me after I left. Although I owned no property in CA and paid partial taxes for the partial year I worked there.
4370   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Feb 19, 10:58am  

Blue says

hey see quite a number of illegals on the streets, larger crowed in places like Home-Depot parking lots

Those are prospective tenants for our favorite landlord to exploit.
4371   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Feb 19, 11:07am  

WookieMan says


I honestly feel bad for you guys.

Don't feel bad for us. It's a choice we make. We're not frogs simmering in a pot. If things get intolerable we can leave. WookieMan says


So I can drop $20k/yr on travel and see new things


For those who can afford to live here, we're a few hours drive away from every kind of recreation you can imagine except perhaps ice fishing. No flights required. From Bay Area, alpine snowboarding "day trips" are practical and doable and relatively affordable. My adult kids have season passes and do it a lot.

But that doesn't change we're living in a shthole. Adults packed into shtbox SFH's, working poor exploited by prop-13 landlords as they're packed into decades old walk up apartments, riverbanks and streets of our cities lined with homeless living under tarps, - yes we're a sh*thole. So what if a handful of billionaires reside here?
4372   WookieMan   2024 Feb 19, 11:50am  

just_passing_through says

GNL says


Isn't it also tough to leave California because they find ways to tax you even after you've left? Fuck that.


I moved away about 1.5 years ago and they aren't taxing me after I left. Although I owned no property in CA and paid partial taxes for the partial year I worked there.

I'm not a know it all as some proclaim. But I do recall hearing about situations getting taxed after you leave CA. If you paid the taxes while living there I don't see how they could come after you. I've just heard stories though I'm not even near there. Think it has more to do with capital gains. W-2 you'd probably be fine.
4373   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Feb 19, 12:29pm  

WookieMan says


I'm not a know it all as some proclaim. But I do recall hearing about situations getting taxed after you leave CA. If you paid the taxes while living there I don't see how they could come after you. I've just heard stories though I'm not even near there. Think it has more to do with capital gains. W-2 you'd probably be fine.


I've heard that too. Also a wealth tax for people who are wealthy unlike me. Very very wealthy. Not sure what became of it all. Also something about taxing those uber wealthy for 10 years after they leave.

They tried to tax my dad's military retirement when he retired and moved back to Texas in the early 80s. He told them to eat $hit and they quit bothering him.
4374   AD   2024 Feb 19, 12:32pm  

HeadSet says

Another example of blaming the "market" for a government caused event. That "unlimited capital" comes from low down government loans and other subsidies. Take away government backed loans and houses would return to being bought as shelters. If people had to save up a 20% down payment, then houses would be more modest and practical. Also, would not need an inflation hedge if the government did not overspend and print every year.


Also they lend money easily to real estate investors. Local governments should increase the property tax on short term rentals if they don't already have a bed or tourism tax.

VA mortgages require the buyer to live in the home and not be a landlord (for a certain period of time such as at least 2 years after purchase).

Yes VA mortgages allow closing costs to be included within the mortgage and does not require a down payment.

I am not sure what percentage of housing units which are tracked in St Louis Fed's website are short term or vacation rentals. Call it the AirBnB effect.
.

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