patrick.net

AD says

The home building industry is seeing the same demographic data as you, so I don't think they will overbuild and there will be an oversupply condition to cause a major drop in prices in the long term.

Did I say they were going to overbuild? No, I did not.

And you don't know what I was referring to by demographics. Had nothing to do with demand for housing. Had to do with cost of money. Since I was talking about mortgage rates I figured that was pretty clear.

UkraineIsFucked says

AD says

The home building industry is seeing the same demographic data as you, so I don't think they will overbuild and there will be an oversupply condition to cause a major drop in prices in the long term.

Did I say they were going to overbuild? No, I did not.

And you don't know what I was referring to by demographics. Had nothing to do with demand for housing. Had to do with cost of money. Since I was talking about mortgage rates I figured that was pretty clear.

I never said you said they were going to overbuild. I stated they would adjust the new construction rate to match forecasted demand. Yes the cost of money impacts demand. The higher the future cost, then prices may drop even more if there is an over supply. That is why home builders are cautious.

Also combine this with housing prices essentially remaining flat from 2022 to 2025 so that income catches up with housing costs.

And also demographic trends may cause a drop in demand for +4 bedroom homes as AmericanKulak pointed out. That is another factor that is making home builders cautious.

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UkraineIsFucked says

Had to do with cost of money. Since I was talking about mortgage rates I figured that was pretty clear.

The 30 year mortgage rate is eventually going to steady around 5.5% this year, which puts it about 2% above the locked-in mortgage rate when housing prices peaked (circa February 2022).

Even motivated home sellers in 2024 and 2025 may offer to buy down 4 discount points to lower that rate from 5.5% to 4.5%. It only costs 4% of the mortgage to buy the 4 points, but is nearly comparable to a 10% drop in home price.

Sale prices in my townhome HOA have fallen about 15% from Februrary 2022 peak. So a rate of 4.5% is a great deal for a mortgagee especially since the median local household income has increased +5% annually since early 2022.

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WookieMan says

Boomers are keeping their homes. Likely paid off. Kids living in them.

Until they MUST pay for assisted living that day, no delaying for market recovery. And many boomers haven't entirely paid off their homes.

And if the kids inherit, you're assuming the kids can move from Indiana to Arizona and ditch their jobs or businesses and their own kid's schools in a heartbeat to live in them.

And if they do so, that only means yet another house will go on the market in Indiana instead of Arizona. It will still be rented out or sold, and it will mostly happen in a decade time frame

AD says

I never said you said they were going to overbuild. I stated they would adjust the new construction rate to match forecasted demand. Yes the cost of money impacts demand. The higher the future cost, then prices may drop even more if there is an over supply. That is why home builders are cautious.

This is basic math guys and understand the past. There are no builders. There are no skilled trades for new construction. All this happened because of the housing crash. Throw covid on top of it. We're 10 years from have any substantial building at all nationally. Millennials will eventually get their shit in order OR they'll take mom and dads house. The latter is the most likely.

So no one learns the skills to build anything. No new houses are built. This is obvious as can be. Sales will stay low (which don't matter) because of interest rates. Prices will be on a slow upslope for another decade until building ramps up. Honestly unless any of us live to 100, I don't see how there could be a housing crash. It would be an economic collapse for whatever reason.

The 2000 tech crash was minor to the housing crash. These thing don't go boom that often. If you're gonna live somewhere for 5-10 years minimum I'd buy even at today's interest rates. Not saying it's a buyers market, but you won't lose.

AmericanKulak says

That graph looks sucky.

WookieMan says

The 2000 tech crash was minor to the housing crash.

Yes as the 2000 tech crash led to the dissolution of tech firms that were vampires as far as equity blood.

So the stronger companies survived, as even Jeff Bezos said that Amazon would make it through the crash because it was wisely investing for the future.

Yes, the housing crash definitely had a bigger disastrous footprint.

Yes, I was just reading PCB Life (myPCBlife.com) about in-home assisted living by "Panhandle Assisted Care". The future trend is this as far as innovative ways to care for senior citizens in their homes.

Our local school district which includes Haney Tech is promoting blue collar trade certifications. They are offering scholarships such as for training to be carpenters, conditioning techs, electricians, etc.

Also Florida is working to ensure the state is not flooded with undocumented workers in the construction trade.

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AmericanKulak says

yeah, as the home construction industry is tapping the brakes as far as what they see ahead in the future such as with respect to demographics and also interest rates.

I think the new norm is not low interest rates or Zero Interest Rate Policy like from 2008 to 201, so the 30 yr mortgage rate will likely be around 5.75% instead of being below 4% for at least 12 months.

You're predicting sub 4% rates in 12 months?

GNL says

You're predicting sub 4% rates in 12 months?

No. I am predicting the 30 year mortgage rate steadying around 5.5% within the next 12 months.

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VA which has been providing no money down mortgages and 100% cash out refis calls for halt to foreclosures:

https://news.va.gov/press-room/va-calls-on-mortgage-servicers-to-pause-foreclosures-of-va-guaranteed-loans-through-may-31-2024/

FHA suspends foreclosures for 60 days: https://www.housingfinance.com/news/hud-halts-foreclosures-for-60-days_o

The entire US monetary and financial system depends on overpriced real estate and that system is going fight like a meth-crazed army of drooling red-eyed Orcs to defend its goblin infested empire,

GNL says

VA which has been providing no money down mortgages and 100% cash out refis calls for halt to foreclosures:

https://news.va.gov/press-room/va-calls-on-mortgage-servicers-to-pause-foreclosures-of-va-guaranteed-loans-through-may-31-2024/

FHA suspends foreclosures for 60 days: https://www.housingfinance.com/news/hud-halts-foreclosures-for-60-days_o

Election year scheme ? I am expecting more announcements like in addition to the regular proclamations of student loan debt forgiveness.

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Seems plausible. This country is so fucked politically.

GNL says

The entire US monetary and financial system depends on overpriced real estate and that system is going fight like a meth-crazed army of drooling red-eyed Orcs to defend its goblin infested empire,

How could this be! We were told by the RE 'experts' on PatNet...

UkraineIsFucked says

Hey PatNet Fed Rate Cut Experts!

WTF ya gonna do now?



https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/29/worst-monthly-spike-of-core-services-pce-inflation-in-22-years-and-not-just-housing-powells-gonna-have-another-cow/

UkraineIsFucked says

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/02/29/worst-monthly-spike-of-core-services-pce-inflation-in-22-years-and-not-just-housing-powells-gonna-have-another-cow/

Yeah The Wolfman at Wolf Street website has been warning about core inflation (or inflation excluding food and energy) such as the costs for home repair (i.e., air condition repair, etc.), housing costs, etc.

Still core inflation was up 0.4% from December 2023 to January 2024 and up 2.8% for the last 12 months.

As The Wolfman says, lets see how this plays out such as with the 6 month moving average for core inflation and overall inflation.

That is if we can trust the economic numbers reported by the Biden Admin are not being massaged more than usual during an election year.

Just seems like the circumstance is too ideal for the Biden Admin to show inflation going down while unemployment remaining low. And I say this in the same context of not being shocked by any "October surprise".

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There are no maximum number of people allowed in a SFH via Supreme Court.

https://olis.oregonlegislature.gov/liz/2021R1/Downloads/PublicTestimonyDocument/4278

There is no maximum number of owners. There are no maximum number of parties on mortgages.

A bill has been introduced to allow illegals in California access to the California Dream for All Shared Appreciation Loans program, which launched spring of 2023 to give qualifying first-time home buyers a loan that covers up to 20% of a property’s purchase price that will not accumulate interest or have required monthly payments. Loanees are instead expected to pay back the original loan amount in addition to 20% of the increase in the home’s value when the property’s mortgage is refinanced or resold.

https://www.foxnews.com/media/new-california-bill-make-illegal-immigrants-eligible-first-time-homebuyer-loans

So, no down payment needed 'cause the 20% is covered by the State of California. You just cram enough illegals into the dwelling so their combined wages/social benefits conform to Fannie/Freddie guidelines and voila the American dream.

We may get some new highs on house prices.

Misc says

So, no down payment needed 'cause the 20% is covered by the State of California. You just cram enough illegals into the dwelling so their combined wages/social benefits conform to Fannie/Freddie guidelines and voila the American dream.

We may get some new highs on house prices.

Think.about it.

This is quite brilliant when looking at the perspective of what it is really designed to accomplish.

Misc says

You just cram enough illegals into the dwelling so their combined wages/social benefits conform to Fannie/Freddie guidelines cover the rent for our favorite landlord.

More landless peasants to exploit.

“The bill does not prevent landlords and other private entities from setting occupancy limits for their own units, within existing law (ORS 90.262). The -1 amendment clarifies that the bill will not change cities’ ability to limit the number of people per square foot or enforce fire and building codes.” - THE END

FLORIDA RENTS COLLAPSE

Renting in Florida is expensive. But if it's not exactly getting better, it is getting less worse.

Florida saw the highest percentage of decline in rent prices of any state year over year in 2023, according to the January report from Rent.com. There was a 9.21% drop in the median average rent price, which is currently $2,095 a month, down 1.14% from December.

Don't get too excited, the current national median rent price is $1,964. But that's down as well, from its peak in August 2022 at $2,054, according to the report. And that doesn't mean that your specific rent, whatever is, has gone down.

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/2024/02/16/florida-rent-prices-cost-national-average/72610845007/

$1900/month was a 3 bed condo ON THE WATER in a Sunny Isles Beach high rise with a wrap around balcony in the mid 2010s. I know because I shopped for one and put a relative in one then. Granted, it was faux marble and mirrors with gold trim except what was shaggy White but old folks like their Liberace styles. Not a shitty Orlando or Ocala or PSL landlocked surburban ranch with the 45 degree kitchen off to the side of the Great Room...

Standby for Inventory and Pending data...

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Hotshot Wharton professor sees $34 trillion debt triggering 2025 meltdown as mortgage rates spike above 7%: ‘It could derail the next administration’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-BB1jfnRI

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AD says

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Hotshot Wharton professor sees $34 trillion debt triggering 2025 meltdown as mortgage rates spike above 7%: ‘It could derail the next administration’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-BB1jfnRI

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BUT...BUT Real Estate Experts on PatNet said rates will go down this year! And in 2022 and early 2023 they said no way would they even rise to what they are now!

Monetary geniuses all!

UkraineIsFucked says

AD says

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Hotshot Wharton professor sees $34 trillion debt triggering 2025 meltdown as mortgage rates spike above 7%: ‘It could derail the next administration’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-BB1jfnRI

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BUT...BUT Real Estate Experts on PatNet said rates will go down this year! And in 2022 and early 2023 they said no way would they even rise to what they are now!

Monetary geniuses all!

I still think that the 30 year mortgage rate will steady around 5.5% in 2024, as inflation continues to subside. The 30 yr mortgage rate typically is 1.5% greater than the 10 Year Treasury and the 10 Year Treasury is 1.5% greater than annual inflation.

Notice annual inflation which is accepted as PCE is steadying around 2.5%. It just has to average 2.5% or less for at least 6 consecutive months to get the mortgage industry to adjust and lower the mortgage rate to 5.5%.

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AD says

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Hotshot Wharton professor sees $34 trillion debt triggering 2025 meltdown as mortgage rates spike above 7%: ‘It could derail the next administration’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-BB1jfnRI

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Those who can’t do, teach…..I wouldn’t put much weight on what a professor said. Also, be careful taking real estate advice from renters.

Housing bubble, or inflation, or……?



https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1764396852323950770?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

And 32% of houses are purchased all cash. A lot of people have coin.

And home ownership rates are near record highs.

Holy 💩! This won’t end well, but what do I know? All I have been doing was twiddling my thumbs the last several months.



https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1764317091950162215?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

Most kids in this country grow up poor and I mean really poor. Before Obama was president, there was a stigma associated with taking government aid. Obama removed that stigma. It can be argued either way whether this was for the better or not. Last stats I looked at pegged that 70% of children in this country were receiving some sort of governmental aid.

Try explaining to them that: no people do not need section-8 housing, they do not need to pay rent, they do not need a mortgage. That 32% of the houses purchased are done all cash. That, yes, the average price of a house is $417000. Regular people just have that much coin. The kids just cannot understand how that can be.

Misc says

And home ownership rates are near record highs.

Not really
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Eman says

https://x.com/kobeissiletter/status/1764317091950162215?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

If rents are rising only by 2% annually, then that is management or sustainable as income is growing at least by that rate. I realize it could be higher than 2% since housing is only about 37% of the total household expenses.
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That chart is kinda flat. Looks like we are only 3% away from the record home ownership.

Misc says

That chart is kinda flat. Looks like we are only 3% away from the record home ownership.

Notice home ownership is shrinking and is almost at the same level as 1980.

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Look at it by Race. That's where it is really telling. Blacks kinda fucked up there in a big sortta way. Not all their own fault either.

Misc says

Look at it by Race. That's where it is really telling. Blacks kinda fucked up there in a big sortta way. Not all their own fault either.

It is 100%. My nephew is thriving. Straight A's in middle school. Tons of friends. It's family structure. Single mom's cannot raise kids. Does it happen, sure. Likelihood of the kid being good is trash. It's not happening. It's culture and family structure.

Baby daddy is in and out of prison. I don't think my nephew has even seen him in 4-5 years. His dad for fucks sake. He beats his mom, my SIL when he's out. I have a successful family, but I don't think people realize the reality of blacks. She's dated 3 and dumped the good one that actually got a college degree.

Maybe I'm off, but music has a lot to do with it. White rock and music like country (which I hate) are more about emotion and positivity. Black modern music is about harm and treating people like shit. Been that way since the 80's. I loved Public Enemy as a kid, but it's just fucking negative as can be. It shouldn't be about bitching. I didn't do a damn thing wrong to a black person. Quit whining and grow up.

During the Housing Bubble Days of free money, Blacks got their free money by refinancing their homes into Sub-prime mortgages. They got more money than they had ever seen before in one place in their entire lives. They blew it on everything imaginable. Word spread throughout the Black community of the riches that could be had. A vast percentage of Black homeowners helped themselves to the bounty egged on by George W. and his rhetoric of the ownership society.
When their mortgages reset to the higher interest rates they defaulted en-mass because they were told their properties were worth less than the mortgages. Foreclosures abounded. This caused extra wear and tear on the already weak family structure. Not many marriages survived.

Whites got their free money by taking out HELOCs on their properties. They got even more free money than the typical Black family and blew it on everything imaginable. Swimming pools were popular as one of the many splurges. When they ran out of free HELOC money and interest rates increased. They stopped paying on their HELOCS. Their properties nosedived in value. Since their properties decreased in value, they went to bankruptcy court and had their HELOCS discharged because they were no longer secured by the property. They got the swimming pool and all the good times of HELOC money. Since they were able to keep their house, it caused less wear and tear on the marriage.

Note that there were large variations from this norm and a few Blacks worked the HELOC scam and a few Whites got caught up getting sub-prime mortgages, but this was typical for the Phoenix metro area.

Misc says

When their mortgages reset to the higher interest rates they defaulted en-mass because they were told their properties were worth less than the mortgages. Foreclosures abounded. This caused extra wear and tear on the already weak family structure. Not many marriages survived.

Eh. Every marriage goes through financial struggle. EVERY single one. That's not an excuse. Marriages survive on commitment. I've fucked up before. Have to own it.

Black men dump sperm and run. It is just facts and stats. It's not racist, it's what is actually happening. I have the fortune of raising a black kid that's not mine because I married a woman and committed to family. It's not the kids fault his mom binge drinks and cannot drive a car. Compounded with weed. SIL, but she's hot too. She fucked up her life. Her child is better off with me of all people.

Family and structure is crucial. It can be slightly off, but you need adults. If I'm being honest and I don't think I've said this here, but I'm a functioning alcoholic. No traffic violations. I drink steady, not binge. Won golfing today while drinking, well yesterday. 3 kids in sports. 3 age ranges. Never late..Never miss anything. Black parents, usually single mom don't do that.

Basically an alcoholic is better than a black person raising kids. Soak that in.... They need to stop worrying about their skin color and doing work. Not much else to it. And stop being criminals for some dumbs reason and blaming others that's what they had to do.

It's tough to go from blowing money like there's no tomorrow to losing everything you've worked for including the house and being forced to move. I forget what the unemployment rates were for Blacks....but yep that too.

Don't get me wrong. There is plenty wrong with Black society...like everything you've mentioned.

Eman says

Also, be careful taking real estate advice from renters.

Really? All those who said "I should have bought?"